SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

[gaebiskon]

Please do so

[felix_felicus7]

Would really like to see it continued if you have time Sirty. I normally look for matches where I can take either an underdog set1 or a fave 2-1 & find your live theory v.interesting. GL with the red dirt.

[SirtySree]

Please do so

Would really like to see it continued if you have time Sirty. I normally look for matches where I can take either an underdog set1 or a fave 2-1 & find your live theory v.interesting. GL with the red dirt.

Thanks guys for the input.

I'll carry on with the favourites down a set plays but I won't bother with the other stuff for now.

[makman]

Good end to March. Now up roughly $500 on the month but it fluctuates a lot due to the nature of my betting style.

Does anyone actually want me to carry on posting my plays though? Since I haven't really been bothered posting them here in the past week or so. If there is some interest, I don't mind posting them but otherwise I'll just let the thread sink as it doesn't really serve any purpose for me.

Post please. I am following your thread updates regularly. I am sure there are many online bettors following. And your analysis on young rising players, etc is also a great contribution

[Hardcoar]

I think those live-bets are pointless most generally (unless you're actually updating the page once ever five minutes lol), but I like your leans, bets, and opinions a lot!

[SirtySree]

Thanks guys for the above two posts. Il make a proper response to them later on bt im posting off my phone for next 12 hrs or so. Main reason y i dnt really post my picks as it cn b a pain doing so off my phone bt il try keep it going.

[SirtySree]

Didn't end up having any plays in the few hours after the above post before I fell asleep and then was busy since. Have time now though and many matches are starting within next 6 hours or so.

After reading the posts above, seems like there are people wanting the favourites down a set as well as my other analysis stuff so I think I will just keep it all going. The pre-game analysis and rookie analysis won't be everyday though and will be just whenever I can find time which should be most days anyways. In regards to me posting the favourites down a set plays, I understand that the tailability (thanks for the new word Hardcoar) is almost impossible as the odds have changed almost by the time I post them. However, main purpose for me posting them as mentioned before was not for tailing or even for the record but to just aware people on the potential value you can get in situations like these as from what I've seen, everyone on here only does pre-game betting so it's just something different that people can have a look at and think about.

[SirtySree]

Here's some interesting matches I see today/tomorrow. As usual, nothing that I would bet on myself as none are overly worthwhile of playing but that's more or less just my own opinion due to my betting style and I rarely bet pre-game unless I have a really strong opinion of the match.

Thiem to win 1st set and lose match @6.5 vs Mannarino
* check for my reasoning in the Thiem/Mannarino thread.

Monfils @3 vs Berdych
- Wouldn't usually think Monfils to beat Berdych but from what I saw, Berdych picked up a leg injury in his last match which really affected his serve although he seemed to be moving laterally fine.
- Could just wait a few games to see how he is playing but you never know what the odds will be by then.

Simon @3 vs Ferrer
- I really like how Simon matches up with Ferrer. He lost earlier in the year to Ferrer but it was a strange one as Simon seemed to run out of gas relatively early in the match resulting in his 1st serve only be at 150kph.
- Will likely turn into a WTA style of match with many breaks and with holds being more important than breaks. Will definitely be a long grind if both players show up.

Mikael Ymer @2 vs Geerts
- Merely stating that Ymer has a match today. Odds are too low though as Geerts is a decent hard court player for a ITF player.
- May put a bet down if Ymer loses the 1st set though depending on how it goes and how I feel at the time despite the fact that I think Geerts rightfully should be the favourite.

[SirtySree]

Posting my plays here always makes me more conservative resulting in me making less reckless plays but at the same time missing some winners. Not sure if that's a good thing or not.

Will prob try to up my recklessness a tad.

EDIT: Might not have picks till later on though. Bit tired from a busy day so might end up falling asleep soon. If I don't, I'll be posting off my phone so may be slightly delayed.

[SirtySree]

Benvenuto @3.75 (bit slow was @4.33 but dropped after a few points)

[SirtySree]

Also ended up being awake for a few more hours before but there was nothing of interest. Yesterday was a slow day despite there being hundreds of matches. Not many comebacks and nothing stood out to me.

[SirtySree]

Su Jeong Jang @3.4 down set and 1-1 30-30.

[SirtySree]

Maamoun @3.4 down 4-2 1st set. Don't want to wait till end of 1st set in case he breaks back.

[SirtySree]

^ Feels good when things work out like that. Maamoun breaks following game.

EDIT: And he wins the 1st set.

[gaebiskon]

SS, will you tell us why you chose to bet on Jang & Maamoun?

[SirtySree]

SS, will you tell us why you chose to bet on Jang & Maamoun?

It's not the easiest explaining the process I go through to make my picks but I'll try explain it briefly. Firstly, not sounding arrogant or cocky but in my head, I recognise almost 90% of the players names so gut instinct on who should win and who I can trust is always what I go with first. Secondly, I open up tennislive.net and look at the matchup and just see how they are playing recently and if they make comebacks/lose from a set up or not as even though I recognise the names, obviously no way of me remember all recent games, their history, and etc. Pretty much comes down to gut instinct again. Lastly, I sometimes go on tennisprediction.com and just look at the starting odds and their % won as favourite and etc but it doesn't have a huge weighing on if I make the pick or not unless there is something ridiculous that stands out which isn't often.

That's just in brief and there's other factors like avoiding semi-finals and finals, qualifiers, big servers, and probably a few others I can't think of at the moment. At the end of the day, everything I do is just based of gut instinct pretty much as I don't have like a formula/system or anything that I use to generate plays.

In terms of why I took the 2 bets above, both have won against the same opponents about a week ago. Also Jang I have won a bet or 2 recently with her as well and I usually like to go back to players that have won for me.

[SirtySree]

+$437

Ended March +$550 roughly. Obviously didn't reach the goal of +$100 per day for the month. Hopefully this month can be like January and February.

[SirtySree]

Hogenkamp @3.5. Was @4.35 but 10bet is being a pain and kept on not accepting my bet.

[gaebiskon]

It's not the easiest explaining the process I go through to make my picks but I'll try explain it briefly. Firstly, not sounding arrogant or cocky but in my head, I recognise almost 90% of the players names so gut instinct on who should win and who I can trust is always what I go with first. Secondly, I open up tennislive.net and look at the matchup and just see how they are playing recently and if they make comebacks/lose from a set up or not as even though I recognise the names, obviously no way of me remember all recent games, their history, and etc. Pretty much comes down to gut instinct again. Lastly, I sometimes go on tennisprediction.com and just look at the starting odds and their % won as favourite and etc but it doesn't have a huge weighing on if I make the pick or not unless there is something ridiculous that stands out which isn't often.

That's just in brief and there's other factors like avoiding semi-finals and finals, qualifiers, big servers, and probably a few others I can't think of at the moment. At the end of the day, everything I do is just based of gut instinct pretty much as I don't have like a formula/system or anything that I use to generate plays.

In terms of why I took the 2 bets above, both have won against the same opponents about a week ago. Also Jang I have won a bet or 2 recently with her as well and I usually like to go back to players that have won for me.

Thanks for the explanation.
I just didn't know who they were and I couldn't find any info on flashscore.com.

[SirtySree]

Thanks for the explanation.
I just didn't know who they were and I couldn't find any info on flashscore.com.

No worries. Most of my bets are at ITF level as I find that a bit easier than ATP/WTA especially compared to ATP where odds are always so low on favorites even when they are getting smashed.

Use tennislive.net instead of flashscore for player stats or sofascore if you want updated scores of current ITF matches live.

[SirtySree]

sonego versing his fixing buddy again nw. take opponent to win 6-0 @125?

[SirtySree]

^ dropped to $26 aftr 1 game

edit: nope no bagel

[SirtySree]

shakovets @3.5

[SirtySree]

dodin @4 down 5-3

[SirtySree]

kulichkova @2.5

[SirtySree]

weissborn @3.25 down set and break

[SirtySree]

kasatkina @3.75

[SirtySree]

Ayukawa @3.25 2x

[SirtySree]

forgot to say shakovets was 2x units but obviously will leave it as just 1 unit in the record il update later

[SirtySree]

boo cant believe ayukawa lost to peers. last match she won just over a week ago against her, and peers couldnt handle ayukawa's hitting and her serve got destroyed in that match.

+$87

[jtoler]

boo cant believe ayukawa lost to peers. last match she won just over a week ago against her, and peers couldnt handle ayukawa's hitting and her serve got destroyed in that match.

+$87

You're not serious are you.

[SirtySree]

You're not serious are you.

why so serious? but yes i am.

[SirtySree]

^ inb4 thought sally peers was shahar peer

Zaja @3 2x

[SirtySree]

Manafov @3.65

[SirtySree]

Had a post ready for Mikael Ymer, Moutet, and Djere but accidentally left the page without posting. Cbf reposting but in brief, all three are on my rookie watch as I think all 3 will be solid ATP players eventually and all 3 won as dogs in their last match.