SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

[SirtySree]

All my other leans that I backed out of posting ended up winning sadly. Venus @2.2 who is in career best form as explained in the commentary thread. Could add him into the list of players who are undervalued but he's not a rookie. Both Zverev's, Volandri, Lindell, and De Paula all won at +odds. Also had Trungelliti and Eysseriv but looks like both would have lost.

Simon got destroyed but the defending champ. Thought he would cover the spread/win a set.
Zhuk retired before play.
Novak won and Podzus lost.
Collarini retired hurt after the 2nd set unfortunately after dominating the 1st set.
Olivo looks like he's on the way to make yet another set down comeback.


Will post more plays later as usual - will seperate plays and leans from now.

[SirtySree]

Plays:
- Novak @2.75 against Pospisil. Rematch between these two again in the final. Novak won last time as mentioned and should be the slight favourite here although only very slight.
- Babos @2.75 against Jankovic. Jankovic horribly out of form and I really like Babos on hard/indoor hard.
- Tomljanovic @2.2. Hantuchova struggling to hold serve all tournament while Tomljanovic has been holding and serving well. Only small play here though and was considering putting as just a lean.
- Baroni @3.5 against Stosur. Just made it past my leans. Stosur is a player that plays off confidence. Last year after losing her Fed Cup matches to Kerber and Petkovic, she lost to Osaka. Can see the same thing happening here.

Leans:
- Shahbaaz Khan @8 against Marcan. Lopsided contest but if you're going to beat Matsui, you better back it up with a win to show it was no fluke/fix.
- Barthel @1.72 against Hantuchova. Not a fan of the whole tired angle but reckon Barthel could win regardless if Hantuchova has jetlag or is tired playing the next day after her final.


Will have some more if I have time once lines are released.

[SirtySree]

The pace of the Wroclaw Challenger surface is insane. Every player is serving double digit aces including some clay courters and there's been many tiebreaks. If your book offers tiebreaks, go cash in on this tournament.

A few other plays for later:
- Brown @2.75 against Karlovic. Brown won both their encounters last year. Pretty much a coin flip so a bit of value with Brown.
- Arvidsson @2.75 against Karatsev. Extremely fast surface here favours Arvidsson.
- Betov @3.75 against Nielsen. Going with the big server here on this surface.

[SirtySree]

As expected Khan is actually crap and Matsui works for the Yakuza.
Yesterday he threw down 12 aces and won 96% on 1st serve while breaking Matsui effortlessly. Then against Marcan who is 10 times worse than Matsui, serves 1 ace and wins 54% on 1st serve while barely winning a single point against Marcan's serve.

[SirtySree]

Elias Ymer gets a WC for Rio but gets drawn against Robredo. Ymer did some training with Robredo during the off season so both should be well aware of each others game. Still don't think Robredo is that healthy but should still be too good for Ymer.

[SirtySree]

Novak wins 6-7 6-3 7-6 in the closest possible margin just like their last encounter. Was @7 on bet365 when down 5-2 in 1st set and was going to take it but the other book I have to use decided not to have the line up sadly. Novak served 22 aces in this match.
Baroni got rolled unfortunately. Was full of errors from the get go and never recovered.
Tomljanovic looking like a loss as well. Was playing and serving so well in that 1st set and then in the middle of the 2nd set errors came and never ended.

[SirtySree]

Another upset at Marseille with Boutillier taking down Gombos after Nys took down Copil yesterday. Followed both players on the ITF tour over the last year and will say I am surprised they won. Both players are good servers but that's all they got so I guess the home advantage really helped them.

The Arvidsson match is currently a messy one. Both players holding well until the last set. Arvidsson goes up 4-1 only to lose 4 games in a row to allow Karatsev to serve for the match up 5-4 only for him to be broken as well and then get broken again after to lose 5-7.

[SirtySree]

Did a quick update and at +$1000 at the moment counting Brands as a ML loss and not adding the tiebreak as didn't have a price up here.

- Brown @3 vs Karlovic
- Brown/Karlovic 1st set TB @2.2
- Young @2
- Puetz @2
- Cuevas @2.1
- Lorenzi @2.25
- Richard Becker @1.9
- Min @2.25

Paigina is @1.57 today so again, value is kind of dead.

[SirtySree]

Adding these to the dart board.

Vesnina @3.5
Qiang Wang @2.5
Djere @2
Rosatello @2.2

[SirtySree]

Disgusting. Wang dominates first set but only converts 2/12 break points while Nara wins 3/3 breaks. Vesnina also on top against Peng but loses the 1st set although not as lopsided as the Wang match.

[grey area]

Hope Wang get's it done for us, last time out on wta lost a hart breaker with Puig in a vary tight match.

[SirtySree]

And Wang takes a tight 3 setter. Probably deserved to win after dominating the 1st two sets despite a much closer 3rd set.
Vesnini lost it mentally after losing the 1st set when she should have won it.

[leetreaper]

No Cecchinato?

[SirtySree]

No Cecchinato?

Na I actually would have bet Nieminen down a set but I wasn't on when the match was played.

Cecchinato and like a bunch of those challenger level clay courters are so inconsistent that I tend to fade or avoid them all together.

[SirtySree]

+$1265 pending these.

- Brown @3 vs Karlovic
- Brown/Karlovic 1st set TB @2.2
- Young @2
- Puetz @2
- Cuevas @2.1
- Lorenzi @2.25

Adding this:
- Souza @1.72 (will wait and hope for better line with all the ppl on tired angle)

Will have more later. A lot of matches later but don't have time to check them at the moment.

[SirtySree]

mahut @2.1
mathieu @1.9
janowicz @2.5
bellucci @8 - +5.5 games @1.9
qiang wang @4
becker @1.9
balaji @3
marie benoit @2
chilumula @2.5
raina @2.25

[Vinnie Paz]

Was just coming to ask u about jano...nice

[SirtySree]

Was just coming to ask u about jano...nice

Surprised hes at those odds unless hes still carrying an injury. line seems a bit reversed to me

[juanquintero]

Janowicz still injured, at least by the news.
Thoughts on Thiem vs Sousa?

[SirtySree]

Janowicz still injured, at least by the news.
Thoughts on Thiem vs Sousa?

Initially I considered Sousa so he would have been in my leans but odds are a tad low. Could be a close 3 setter.

[SirtySree]

1st set TB between Karlovic and Brown is YES @2 on bet365 and YES @3.25 on Williamhill if anyone wants to cash in on the difference in odds.

[SirtySree]

With the long list of matches yesterday, fell into the trap of too many plays like a few others. Also I've gone away from the actual purpose of this thread so I will clean it up a bit as main purpose was not to post plays. As I can't update the first post, I will just make a new post soon updating the list of value players.

[EaglesPhan36]

Janowicz wasn't injured just in case you guys were wondering - it was the flu.

Good luck SS

[SirtySree]

Janowicz wasn't injured just in case you guys were wondering - it was the flu.

Good luck SS

Thanks for the info EP and good luck with your plays too. Line fluctuating back and forth on this well so seems everyone is a bit split on the current line. Also might give Gulbis another fade with the current form he is in but he's versing the infamous Chardy.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I would back Chardy, but that guy is kryptonite SuperAIDS to me. I do think he'll win, but I won't touch it. Can't even consider Gulbis until he shows anything. Looks completely dysfunctional this year.

[SirtySree]

Here's my list of players I personally think have value currently. Added a few new ones that I forgot when I first made the thread as these players don't play that often as they are juniors.

Katharina Hobgarski

Marie Bouzkova

Darya Kasatkina

Anhelina Kalinina

Jasime Paolini

Natalia Vikhlyantseva

Carlos Taberner

Sumit Nagal

Marta Paigina

Sofya Zhuk

Michael Mmoh

Dennis Novak

Vincent Stouff

Corentin Moutet

Indy De Vroome

[SirtySree]

And my plays for later today. Trying not have too many plays and don't want them to be the focus of this thread.

+$447

chardy @2
- gulbis can't make a single forehand where there is no pace. would lose to a WTA player who lobs every shot
- gulbis is defending champ however so tread lightly

paire @3.75
- almost won late last year and won the year before
- hit a bit of form after a bad start to the year
- wawrinka no points to defend here but he could see it as an opportunity to pick up points
- maybe take paire to win a set instead as paire has a tendency to fall apart

basic @2.1
- basic's game suits fast indoor hard surfaces
- game may have a tiebreak or two if you can get price on that

puetz @2 - pending
janowicz @2.5 - pending

[juanquintero]

Awful game by janowicz. I took Goffin ML because of the pneumonia news on Janowicz but would not expect it to be so easy

[SirtySree]

+$457

Troicki @2.1
- with Isner and Anderson out, the field is wide open
- Troicki may see this as an opportunity to climb the rankings even more but regardless, I think his style of play will trouble Tomic

chardy @2 - pending
paire 1st set @3.4- took this instead of ML

Leans:
Smycek @2.62 - Dolg is still out of sorts coming back so chance playing at home

[SirtySree]

Throw this name into the value list.

Veronika Kudermetova
- just bet Kontaveit and taking down another good youngster, Jorovic at the moment

[SirtySree]

Might as well add Julia Terziyska to the list although pre-game value is slightly gone. Just hit a $6.5 odd bet for me down a set against someone she won against last week.

[girlscoutcookies]

chardy @2
- gulbis can't make a single forehand where there is no pace. would lose to a WTA player who lobs every shot
- gulbis is defending champ however so tread lightly

spot on. really thought he was going to rebound today. should have known better when i saw i wasn't alone. nice call

[SirtySree]

spot on. really thought he was going to rebound today. should have known better when i saw i wasn't alone. nice call

thanks. im really not sure how gulbis can bounce back as this is the issue he has had all his career and only made it consistent early last year. it's really just a confidence thing with gulbis bt hw he gets that back is uncertain. possibly playing challengers bt i cnt see him deciding to do that until he falls out of top 50.

good luck with ur plays, u hav been destroying it lately.

[SirtySree]

+$457

basic @2
- not sure how he is the underdog here
- possibly tiebreak again

lu @2.1
- i actually like lu to possibly win the tourney here
- mannarino is too denfensive to deal with Lu's groundshots

souza @2 (waiting as rising)
- going to keep going with souza during his run at home
- maurer is a classic inconsistent/choking challenger level for life player

maia +5.5 @2.1
- playing at home and one of my fav young guns in WTA
- hard player to break so +5.5 looks decent

troicki @2.1 - pending

[fitguy67]

two nights in a row i hop in on the pre-match fave at a great price after he loses a set...then my guy wins the 2nd in a TB...then rolls over in the 3rd...aaarrrggghhh!

last night Rola, tonight Troicki...an amazingly common scenario...the player fights tooth and nail to survive in the match and wins a hard-fought 2nd to force a decider...then plays like he's got a plane to catch...no "tooth and nail"...as if their major goal for the match was to avoid the stigma of being straight-setted...