meganie's Tennis Picks 2009

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  • meganie
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-09-08
    • 591

    #141
    I'm gonna pick heavy favs more carefully, got heavily this week.

    Friday 3-5 -1.85
    (W:Roddick, Gil/Bell, Robredo - L:Radwanska, Benneteau, Querrey, Benn/Monf, Delpo)

    Saturday 4-3-1 -0.09
    (W: Fish, Zvonareva, Bell/Robr, Mauresmo - L:Roddick, Mauresmo 2-0, Bellucci)

    YTD 97-70-13 +22.07u

    1.5u Stepanek/Fish OVER 23.5 -103
    Last edited by meganie; 02-15-09, 01:41 PM.
    Comment
    • meganie
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 09-09-08
      • 591

      #142
      Monday
      Marseille
      1u Lopez over Ljubicic -120

      Dubai
      0.4u Sugiyama over Bartoli +282
      0.3u Medina-Garrigues over Mauresmo +330
      0.5u Niculescu over Peng +210

      Notes:
      - Mauresmo/Medina-Garrigues: Mauresmo had an 2&1/2 hours match today and nearly played 2 hours yesterday. The match today started at 3pm CET I believe. With ceremony, press conference and interviews she'll stay in Paris atleast till 9pm CET. That means she'll be in Dubai rather late and with less than one day time to recover I'm expecting her to be tired and making more ues than usual. Medina-Garrigues could profit from this as she's one of the more solid players on tour.

      Tuesday/Wednesday
      Marseille
      1u Santoro over Benneteau +155

      Memphis
      1u Hewitt over Blake +135*
      2u Rochus over Young -115
      1u Querrey over Haas +115
      0.5u Petzschner over Nieminen +214

      * Not a play yet. Will wait till I find something about how serious Blake's ankle injury is.

      Notes:
      - Hewitt/Blake: Blake is injured. As bad as Hewitt is atm, I expect him to move Blake around the court and with the way Blake is playing, he'll go for every shot he can get to shorten the points, which could result in many unforced errors.

      - Santoro/Benneteau: This one is quite a difficult match to cap, because of Benneteau being one of the streakiest players on tour. If he hits the line which he did often against Davydenko and Lopez, he'll destroy Santoro 6-1 6-1, if not, he'll lose this match as Santoro is clearly the more intelligent player (intelligent in case of tactics on court) of them. I'm going with Santoro because Benneteau as fav is a player to fade and I'm expecting Santoro to disturb Benneteau's rhythm with some unorthodox shots and I could see Benneteau getting more and more confused during the match with netting many shots.

      - Querrey/Haas: This is a tricky match. Querrey has the bigger serve, but is inferior from the baselilne. That to be said Haas' form is the big question, he looked abysmal against Nadal (who don't?) and had issues breaking challenger players as he struggled to do that against Rochus and Pörschke in the second set in San Jose. On the other hand, Querrey beat Baghdatis (it was lucky though as Baghdatis was up 4-0 in the deciding tie break) and had an easy win against Gremelmayr before he got beaten by Blake. So both got beaten by good servers in their last match with nearly identical stats. I give the edge to Querrey as he'll able to get more cheap points with his serve, so Haas will have a hard time breaking him (he never managed to get a break point against Roddick) and gets the better odds. Worth mentioning is the fact that Haas is up 3-0 in the h2h, but all their meetings were in the earlier weeks of 2007 were Haas was clearly in better shape and in addition to that one of them happened on clay, where Haas clearly has/had the edge over Querrey.

      - Rochus/Young: The Rochus match shows clearly that Young is probably one of the most overhyped players on ATP tour. Rochus is nearly 60 ranks ahead of Young. He lost in 2009 to Stakhovsky, Nadal, Ljubicic and Haas with winning over Kunitsyn. Basically Rochus' only match, he should've won was the match against Stakhovsky which he lost in the deciding tie breaker, aside from that he always played (far) superior players. Young's only wins were over two players ranked over 300 and a guy, who isn't even ranked yet. He lost to an aging Spadea, Russell who's ranked 259 and Ryderstedt who's ranked 368, all in straight. So since talent doesn't win you matches, I'm going with the player, who isn't hyped to death.

      No odds for Buenos Aires and Bogota out yet.
      Last edited by meganie; 02-15-09, 06:54 PM.
      Comment
      • meganie
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 09-09-08
        • 591

        #143
        Sunday 1-0 +1.46
        YTD 98-70-13 +23.53u

        Adding
        Monday
        1u Reynolds over Sela +132
        1u Johansson over Castano -101

        Tuesday/Wednesday
        1u Arguello over Montanes +110
        1u Bellucci over Granollers -135
        1.3u Czink over Foretz -133
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #144
          I think the Arguello bet is one of the best ones in the early rounds this week. Montanes is absolute shit right now. He hasn't won in the 1st round in 7 straight tournaments. Sure, he'll get one at some point, but for plus money - you can't argue with Arguello!

          Do disagree on Querrey though. Haas has a great record in Memphis & I just don't get Querrey's record in indoor hard surfaces (12-9) and only 4-6 in his last 10. You figure his massive serve would see him at 60-65% wins on this surface.
          Comment
          • meganie
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 09-09-08
            • 591

            #145
            Monday/Tuesday 5-5-1 +1.01
            (W:Rochus, Arguello, Lopez, Niculescu, Johansson-L:Czink, Bellucci, Reynolds, Santoro, Sugiyama)

            YTD 103-75-14 +24.54u

            Petzschner-Nieminen, Querrey-Haas matches to be played.

            Busy for awhile so won't be around here very often, eagles, if you read this, sorry, no time for picks or the contest this month.
            Comment
            • "Sic"
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 11-03-08
              • 838

              #146
              ...Wish you GL with whatever you have going on. Hopefully you find time to make a few post..Peace out
              Comment
              • meganie
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 09-09-08
                • 591

                #147
                Originally posted by meganie
                Petzschner-Nieminen, Querrey-Haas matches to be played.
                2-0 +2.23

                YTD 105-75-14 +26.76u

                These odds are too good to pass:
                1.5u Kohlschreiber over Ferrer -117
                1u Gimeno-Traver over Montanes +135

                (Didn't do a lot of analysing there, so better don't follow)
                Comment
                • meganie
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 09-09-08
                  • 591

                  #148
                  1u Venus/Llagostera Vives OVER 18.5 +104
                  1u Robredo/Ramirez Hidalgo UNDER 19.5 +113
                  Comment
                  • RogueScholar
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 02-05-07
                    • 5082

                    #149
                    It has to be good juju to post plays exactly at 4:20! I'll tail those last two, thanks Meganie.

                    Originally posted by StraitShooter
                    90% of the guys dont give a shit about your problems..and the other 10 are glad you have them..
                    Comment
                    • meganie
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 09-09-08
                      • 591

                      #150
                      Originally posted by RogueScholar
                      It has to be good juju to post plays exactly at 4:20! I'll tail those last two, thanks Meganie.

                      Wow, you made exactly 0.04u. (Atleast you/I got your/my money back)
                      Next time I say I didn't spend much time on researching, better don't tail. Robredo was a H-O-R-R-I-B-L-E choice.
                      Comment
                      • meganie
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 09-09-08
                        • 591

                        #151
                        1u Rochus +5 over Querrey -113
                        1u Muller over Garcia-Lopez -117
                        1u Muller/Garcia-Lopez UNDER 23 -101
                        1u Granollers over Vassallo Arguello -129
                        Comment
                        • meganie
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 09-09-08
                          • 591

                          #152
                          3-5 -2.23u
                          YTD 108-80-14 +24.53u

                          1u Acasuso/Chela OVER 22.5 -112
                          0.25u Parmentier over Pennetta +430
                          Comment
                          • meganie
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 09-09-08
                            • 591

                            #153
                            0-2 -1.25
                            YTD 108-82-14 +23.27u

                            1u Acasuso/Robredo OVER 22.5 -106
                            1u Almagro/Gimeno-Traver OVER 20 -117
                            1u Venus/Szavay OVER 19.5 -104
                            1u Cetkovska/Pennetta OVER 20 -106
                            0.3u Cetkovska over Pennetta +355
                            Comment
                            • AgainstAllOdds
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-24-08
                              • 6053

                              #154
                              Megnie

                              You have been sliding down a little bit but keep up the good work.

                              GL today.
                              Originally posted by SBR_John
                              AAO = good dude. Buying you a drink in Vegas buddy.
                              Comment
                              • EaglesPhan36
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-06-06
                                • 71662

                                #155
                                Originally posted by meganie
                                0-2 -1.25
                                1u Almagro/Gimeno-Traver OVER 20 -117
                                I think I like that one a lot.
                                Comment
                                • meganie
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 09-09-08
                                  • 591

                                  #156
                                  Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                  I think I like that one a lot.
                                  If Gimeno-Traver was playing a little bit better, he'd be great value. Can't believe Almagro is still getting those heavy fav odds, he hasn't shown much lately.

                                  1u Rochus over Koubek +125
                                  1u Gasquet over Ferrer +123
                                  Comment
                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-06-06
                                    • 71662

                                    #157
                                    21 games for the Almagro match. Nice cashola.
                                    Comment
                                    • meganie
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 09-09-08
                                      • 591

                                      #158
                                      That was entirely calculated.

                                      Cetkovska-Pennetta in the middle of the second set:
                                      6-2 2-0

                                      Cetkovska-Pennetta end result:
                                      6-2 3-6 0-6
                                      Pennetta 43% 1st serves in
                                      Cetkovska 73% 1st serves in

                                      WTA tennis is getting more and more ridiculious.
                                      Last edited by meganie; 02-26-09, 07:10 PM.
                                      Comment
                                      • meganie
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 09-09-08
                                        • 591

                                        #159
                                        5u Monfils over Mayer -500
                                        0.5u Simon over Djokovic +210
                                        Comment
                                        • meganie
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 09-09-08
                                          • 591

                                          #160
                                          Damn, forgot to post the Djokovic over (Put it in the spreadsheet yesterday, but forgot), whatever...

                                          Thursday 3-2-1 +1.45
                                          YTD 111-84-15 +24.72u

                                          2.5u Baghdatis over Chardy -142
                                          1u Vassallo Arguello/Almagro OVER 21 -101
                                          1u Benesova over Pennetta +181
                                          0.5u Venus/Zahlavova Strycova OVER 19 -115
                                          0.5u Vassallo Arguello over Almagro +350

                                          Posted
                                          1u Rochus over Koubek +125
                                          1u Gasquet over Ferrer +123
                                          Comment
                                          • meganie
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 09-09-08
                                            • 591

                                            #161
                                            Future bet
                                            0.4u Acasuso to win Acapulco +310
                                            Comment
                                            • meganie
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 09-09-08
                                              • 591

                                              #162
                                              Adding
                                              1u Fish/Serra UNDER 22 -110
                                              Comment
                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-06-06
                                                • 71662

                                                #163
                                                Originally posted by meganie
                                                1u Benesova over Pennetta +181
                                                Excellent value play for me as well.
                                                Comment
                                                • meganie
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 09-09-08
                                                  • 591

                                                  #164
                                                  2u Acasuso over Monfils +124
                                                  Comment
                                                  • meganie
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 09-09-08
                                                    • 591

                                                    #165
                                                    1.5u Ferrer over Djokovic +164
                                                    2u Simon over Berdych -133
                                                    Comment
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