The Karayilan thread

[Karayilan9]

!!! SHAKHTAR CHAMPIONS !!!

They made that alot harder than it needed to be, there was really only one team in the game, Bremen were non-existant and scored through the Skakhtar keepers mistake. Shakhtar had countless chances and finally finished the game in extra time.

A huge win tonight

[Karayilan9]

Bundesliga - Schalke vs Hoffenheim - Over 2.5 goals

Last day of the season, the fans want a treat, this game doesnt have any major importance, no need to be disciplined in defense, an opportunity to attack and score without worries.

I'm doing a multiple, Every Bundesliga game Over 1.5 goals

[Karayilan9]

Bundesliga - Schalke vs Hoffenheim - Over 2.5 goals WIN

An easy dime its all over in half an hour, now I'm going to take Over 3.5 goals and Over 4.5 goals.

[Karayilan9]

Every Bundesliga game Over 1.5 goals - HUGE WIN

$100 on odds of 30 ( +3000)

[Phillth]

Every Bundesliga game Over 1.5 goals - HUGE WIN

$100 on odds of 30 ( +3000)

Dang where did you get that prop? sweet bet

[Karayilan9]

Another huge win with Barcelona posted it in another thread.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-handicapping/182668-manchester-barcelona-p2.html

[Karayilan9]

Fa Cup Final - Chelsea vs Everton - Under 2.5 goals

[Karayilan9]

MLS Pick. Houston Dynamo Win/Draw, full write up here WIN

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-handicapping/190928-mls-6-05-a.html

[Karayilan9]

Azerbaijan - Wales 3.95 3.35 2.20 - Under 2.5 goals WIN

Azerbaijan have a pretty solid defense, they have been improving in football for a while now and are building a team from the back. Wales have been having trouble on and off the pitch and team moral is low. Bellamy won't be playing which will reduce their offensive force. Wales away record hasn't been impressive, 2 games 2 losses, scored a goal let in 3. Azerbaijan has drawn its only goal at home and neither scored or let in one.

Azerbaijan are happy with not conceding goals at this stage of their team building project. As long as the defense is solid they can work on trying to solve how to score.

A low scoring affair is likely in this game, could be a no score draw or Azerbaijan may even sneak a win but they can't be trusted to score so I'll stick with the Under.

[theplagy]

How much juice did u lay for under 2.5?

i had under 2 goals at -111

I also like under 2.5 goals for Qatar- Aus at -150

[Karayilan9]

Qatar vs Australia - Australia Win / Under 2.5 goals LOSS / WIN

Australia are top of their group, 2 points above Japan, they have been a growing force in Asian football for a while now and have a pretty good well balanced squad. Qatar is bottom of the group and haven't been playing well.

I think Australia will go for the win here to keep their No.1 spot against Japan who is likely to win against Ozbekistan today. Australia and Qatar have a good defensive record, infact Australia has yet to let in a goal on the road in 3 away games while only scoring 2. Qatar have let in 4 in 3 home games which isn't bad considering they are bottom of the group.

Australia have the quality and desire to win here, however, the climate could be an issue and Qatar will try take advantage of this so I'll take the Under 2.5 aswel incase its a low-score draw.

[Karayilan9]

ThePlagy
How much juice did u lay for under 2.5?

I got it at 1.67 yesterday, -150.

[Karayilan9]

Bulgaria vs Ireland - Ireland Win/Draw . Under 2.5 . WIN / WIN

Ireland are managed by the Italian legend Trappatoni who has installed the Italian defensive approach and discipline into the team. The classic Italian mentality in this away game would be to play a cautious game and sneak a win. This style of play has been paying off, Ireland have only let in 4 games in 6 while scoring 7. Bulgaria have a similar defensive approach but arn't getting enough wins or goals. If Ireland win here they'll go first, Bulgaria also need the win, its an important game and the styles the teams play suggest a low scoring affair. The Italian mastermind may be able to pull of a win here aswel or at least a draw in my opinion.

[Karayilan9]

Serbia v Austria - Serbia Win / Under 2.5 goals WIN / WIN

[TurkzZ]

nice going

[Karayilan9]

7-1 so far, almost a clean sweep, can't believe the socceroos couldn't get a goal against Qatar, they hit the post and had so many chances but hats off to the Qatar keeper he was amazing!

Next round of games will start soon, may have some picks for the Americas.

[Karayilan9]

Asian WCQ - Australia vs Bahrain : Under 2.5 goals - (1.8 / -125) WIN

An interesting match up here, Australia have already qualified for the World Cup, Bahrain only need one point to make it to the playoffs for a chance to qualify. Australia have been criticized for their defensive approach so this could be a show for the fans. However, I don't think it will be that easy, Bahrain has been underestimated, Australia and Japan the group leaders only scraped past them with 1-0 wins. Every Bahrain away game has gone Under and every Australian game except one. Bahrain were going to have a hard time scoring against an Australian team who have had clean sheets in their last six games. They will find it even harder to score tomorrow as they will be missing their top striker Hubail and midfielder Fatadi. They'll be aware that Australia have a strong offensive threat with Cahil and Kewell and that there defense will need to put in a strong effort.

Australia may have a more offensive approach to this game but they are playing a team which can settle for the draw and as they are missing their weapons upfront its likely they start cautious and defensive and try to hit Australia on the counter attack.

The odds are 1.8 / -125, by game time they could drop.

[Karayilan9]

European WCQ - Finland vs Russia : Russia Win - (1.9 / -110) WIN

Finland and Russia in a game both would like to win, infact for Finland its a must win situation. So far Finland have been real poor, they barely beat Lichtenstein, scraped past Azerbaijan and beat Wales. They have showed determination and been able to get through the weak sides but their record against stronger sides and Russia especially is a cause for concern. They have a few match up problems with their players and style, they lost 3-0 in the last game and were really outclassed, the time they played before that they lost 6-1. In addition to this Finland will be missing a few first 11 players, like Shefki Kuqi who can be a threat in attack.

I think it will start off a tight game but Russia could exploit the slow Finland defense on the break and win thisl.

[Karayilan9]

10 mins to game time, sorry for late post I just got in.

Argentina have been playing piss poor especially on the road, they have lost 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5 away games. There last away game was against Bolivia were they got trashed 6-1. An important factor of that embarrassing loss was that they were playing in the mountains of Bolivia and today they'll be playing in the mountains of Ecuador. Messi himself said he couldn't cope with the altitude in the Bolivia match.

More worrying for Argentina is their manager and his strange decisions and stubberness. He won't play Ricquelme which the whole of Argentina just can't understand and instead he puts on Veron who isn't in his prime. Then he decided Messi won't start because if he gets another yellow card he can't play against Brazil. Then these players with small injuries are being left out the squad. More bad news is that Aguera is injured.

Ecuador have 5 of their top players returning, they impressed me in their last game which they won 2-1 away, at home they haven't lost in 6 games including a draw against Brazil in which they out played the footballing giants.

Ecuador Win/Draw +120 WIN

[Karayilan9]

MLS Houston Dynamos vs Chivas USA : Under 2.5 goals (1.9 / -110) WIN

Houston Dynamos the team lighting up the MLS right now, been on a great run, won their last 3 games at home and now comes the big test against the league leaders. Chivas despite being leaders have never beaten Houston on the road. Both teams are missing key players, most importantly their top strikers, Houston missing Ching. Houston have trouble scoring as it is, 70% of their games have been Unders, they felt Chings absence in the last game were they could only score once although they were on the road. Chivas also have been offensively challenged lately. A strong point of both teams are their defense and goal keeper, both keepers have one of the best clean sheet records, Chivas only let in 2 goals on the road, Houston only let in 2 at home.

Chivas will have a cautious approach to this game, they will be vary due to missing alot of players and their historic record in Houston. Houston are likely to be doing more of the attacking but will have a harder time converting chances to goals with missing players up front and in midfield.

[Karayilan9]

4-0 today, clean sweep Confederations cup in on the weekend and there should be some nice MLS and Argentinian league picks

Current record W 90. P 8. L 50

[TheLock]

I like this thread. Going to start following it more.

[Karayilan9]

TheLock
I like this thread. Going to start following it more.

Thanks man

Brasilero Serie A - Sporting Recife vs Atletico Paranaense: Sporting Recife Win (1.9 / -110) / Over 2.5 goals (1.9 / -110)
I've been tracking Sporting Recife and was impressed with their Copa Libertadores run, they were really unlucky to go out on penalties against Brazilian giant Palmeiras. Recife play attacking football and their main weakness is their defense, they know they let in goals but know they can score more. They had a slow start to the league but have been building momentum, loosing in a close match with one of the leagues strongest sides Atletico Mineiro 2-3, drawing with Botafago 2-2 then scoring 4 goals in 8 mins to beat Flamengo in their last game. Atletico on the other hand are on a 3 game loosing streak, havn't won this season and have scored 5 but more worrying let in 13 in 5 games, the worst goals against record in the league. Atletico are missing one of their top midfield players Marcinho.

Recife got a big boost from winning their last game, I think they should win and that there will be a few goals. Weldon who scored a hat-trick last game is playing, they have no major injury worries, the Ilha do Retiro is going to rocking tonight, expect a fiery atmosphere from the teams Ultras, Atletico are in for a tough time tonight.

[Karayilan9]

Brasilero Serie A - Botafago vs Santos: Santos -0 (1.9 / -110)

Botafago have yet to win in the league, while Santos are yet to loose. Santos are one of the biggest teams in Brazil and have a tradition of producing some of the all time greats, Pele, Socrates, Dunga and recently the likes of Ze Roberto, Robinho. They currently have quite a young team with new potential talents. However, Botafago are also one of the big teams and one of the top 4 in Rio. They will turn their game around soon but Botafago have yet to win and are soft in defense and are having trouble on the offensive front only scoring 3 goals. Santos have been playing well at home and on the road and I expect this to continue against this struggling Botafago team.

[Karayilan9]

MLS: Dallas vs Houston - Under 2.5 goals / Houston Win/Draw

Two teams with a history, Houston has the momentum and part of their sucess is their great defense which hasn't let in a goal in the last 3 games. Offensively they may struggle without Ching. Dallas have been playing better lately and this could be a cautious game played by Houston as they arn't at full strength in attack yet.

[Karayilan9]

Australia vs Japan - Under 2.5 goals /

Both teams have already qualified, both teams have cautious managers, sure its the last game and the fans want a treat but the last thing either team wants is a pointless red card or a second yellow which would result in that player being suspended for the first world cup game. Also neither team wants an injury. This game isn't worth the hassle or risk for either team.

Australia is resting Harry Kewell a key component of their attack, however, also defenders will be rested. Japan is resting every one of their big names who play in Europe.

The player with the biggest motive in this game in my opinion is the Australia goal keeper, Schwarzer has kept a clean sheet in every qualifier game, an incredible 10 game run! he'll want to extend this record and it will be good for his and the teams confidence knowing they can keep clean sheets against good sides.

The main player that could put the under in jeopardy in my opinion is the socceroos striker Kennedy, Japan sometimes have problems dealing with big strong strikers especially in set pieces.

Also I will bet on, NO CARDS or UNDER 5 POINTS (2 yellow cards) but am having trouble finding a book offering it.

[Emily_Haines]

Are you laying -180 on the Australia/Japan U2.5?

The best total I can find is 2

[Karayilan9]

It was -142 on Betfair yesterday yesterday Emily, now its dropped to -200, so I'll make a trade, if anyone has an account on their they can "trade" by "laying" the event.

[Karayilan9]

Confederations Cup: Spain vs Iraq - Spain -2.5

[Trixie]

Yep, I'm on that on too, brother! BOL to us!

[Karayilan9]

African World Cup Qualifier: Zambia v Algeria - Algeria Win/Draw (+175) WIN

Algeria have a number of players in the top leagues in Europe, Ziani of Marseille could be a handful tomorrow against a weak Zambia side. Algeria haven't lost in 9 games, now that's nothing to get too excited about considering the quality of many of the African sides, however, they have beaten top African teams like Egypt and Ivory Coast along that run.

They should have the quality and experience to not loose tomorrow, the pitch in Zambia isn't the greatest and may make it a slow, cautious game.

[Karayilan9]

African World Cup Qualifier: Sudan v Ghana - Ghana -0 (1.65 / -150) WIN

Ghana have one of the strongest midfields in Africa, Essien, Appiah, Ali Muntari, Ayew and a solid defense most who play in top level European sides. They are on a good run, unbeaten in over 5 games and top of their qualifier group beating the second strongest team of the group Mali quite easily on the road. Sudan have a weak team, nobody who plays for a good club side. They are 3rd in the group with one point and will most likely try to get a point from this game and focus on beating the weaker sides later on.

Ghana should win this game but I'll play it safe and take the lower odds as I think there is value in it.

[Karayilan9]

African World Cup Qualifier: Burkino Faso v Ivory Coast - Ivory Coast Win (+100) WIN

Ivory Coast are player for player the best team in Africa, infact there squad is so strong that they would give most major world teams from Europe to South America a run for their money. They have the Toure brothers of Barcelona and Arsenal. They have some serious offensive weapons, Drogba, Kalou, Bakari Kone, Sanago, Arouna Kone... There players are playing as stars in the biggest teams in Europe.

However, we can't write of Burkino Faso, they also have a few stars like, Pitroipa and Kabore and their last 10 games is W 8 D 2.

The teams are joint top of their group with 6 points, it will be a tough game but Ivory Coast should be able to pull through against a not so strong Burkino defense.

[TheLock]

I'm tailing on Ivory Coast.

[cocknocker]

I'm betting against the U.S. with any team HEAVY!

Nice hit on the Ivory Coast!