Ste's plays

[onemoregoal]

Arsenal to win (-0.5) at home to Wigan would never be a toin coss...

Wigan are aight but if Arsenal manage to score early its a chance to up their GD. On the assumption Chelsea drop points last game home to Everton-(2.25 shot) Arsenal need to find 5 goals in their last 2.
Its all very unlikely but Im sure its at the back of the managers mind.
3rd place is a massive jump imo, 4th will stand a real chance of being knocked out in the CL play off.

[stemellor]

Arsenal to win (-0.5) at home to Wigan would never be a toin coss...

Wigan are aight but if Arsenal manage to score early its a chance to up their GD. On the assumption Chelsea drop points last game home to Everton-(2.25 shot) Arsenal need to find 5 goals in their last 2.
Its all very unlikely but Im sure its at the back of the managers mind.
3rd place is a massive jump imo, 4th will stand a real chance of being knocked out in the CL play off.

Fair point and I think a line of -0.5 would be absolutely pounded by Arsenal backers (and rightly so!) The line of 1.5 should get get a much more balanced backing, which is what the bookies obviously want here. If I read this correctly, the bookies are giving extra value to Wigan here as they know Arsenal is a very well supported club and will attract lots of money in this spot. Only way to achieve an even balance of money is to give backers a reason to put their money on Wigan and I think this line represents that.
Arsenal are well capable of a cricket score if they get an early goal, but I read this as Wigan will be fighting for everything and a tight Arsenal win. Hopefully anyway!

[Tenver]

Palace missing top scorer Murray (30 goals) though

Ah bummer lol

[Johndrama]

fantastic work my man. Really well played. Gratz

[Tenver]

fantastic work my man. Really well played. Gratz

Bump bump. Nice work, that's a 3/3 from the Argentina game.

[stemellor]

Thanks both, very kind.

John - glad you took Osters out of your large parlay. Come on Sociedad!

[andyrocha90]

Thanks for the plays ste!

[stemellor]

Also adding the 2 picks below. All 3 jumped straight out as obvious value picks, so hopefully this is a good omen.

Switzerland Challenge League - Aarau vs Locarno
I was on Aarau as they won 6-0 in their last game and they need to push on to consolidate their promotion place. Locarno are confirmed bottom and are getting battered. Biel Bienne who Aarua bet 6-0 in the last game recently bet Locarno 4-0.

I have Aarau as 3-0 winners here, so I'm taking Pinnys odds below:

Aarau -2 @ 1.925. Risking to win 2u.

Sweden - Helsingborg vs Hacken
Helsingborg have made a great start winning the last 4 games and sitting second in the league.
Hacken are 7th and have lost their last 2 games away from home.

It is the start of the season in Sweden so playing this quite small today as the form hasn't had time to settle yet, as I found out today with the Djurgarden vs Malmo result. Still, these odds represent great value based on recent form and head 2 head results.

Taken Helsingborg -0.5 @ 1.746 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

Clean sweep today including the early River Plate win. Everything went my way today. Although I didn't put any money on it I got 2 of the scores as well.

Overall record now: 22.5-17.5-2. +15.4u

[KATCHASE]

Wow!! Congrats!! Keep up the great job!!

[stemellor]

Just had a quick look at the EPL odds for tomorrow and have sorted a play early.

EPL - Arsenal vs Wigan:
I genuinely thought the line would be -0.5 on the handicap. It's currently on Pinny at 1.971 both sides of 1.5.
I can understand why the line has been set here as Arsenal are well rested and certainly have the quality to put Wigan to the sword on Tuesday.

I just can't believe Wigan are going to lie down and die at the Emirates though. They have a lot of injuries and have played twice since Arsenal have. Even with the above, Wigan have a genuine team spirit and whilst I think Arsenal will do enough I can see a scrappy game with a late Arsenal winner. With all that is at stake for Arsenal (Champions League qualification) I can see them being nervous as they know they effectively have to win this game or their local rivals will take the last CL spot.

Taken Wigan +1.5 @ 1.971 on Pinny for 1u.

Adding 1 more play tomorrow.

Czech - Gambrinus Liga: Dukla vs Brno
This was the game that was rained off last week. I did a full write up earlier in the thread. Basically, I liked this at Dukla -1. I like this even more at -0.75!

Taken Dukla -0.75 @ 1.943 on Pinny. Risking to win 2u.

Slovenia Prva League
I also have a heavy lean on Koper vs Gorica in the Slovenian League. Koper have been excellent in the last few matches and are pushing to consolidate their European place. The odds aren't quite right for me to play pre-match. I have them with around a 60% chance of winning, so the current odds don't represent value to me. In-play it might be worth keeping a serious eye on though.

Edit: Pulled the trigger on Koper -1. Risking to win 1u.

[Tenver]

Adding 1 more play tomorrow.

Czech - Gambrinus Liga: Dukla vs Brno
This was the game that was rained off last week. I did a full write up earlier in the thread. Basically, I liked this at Dukla -1. I like this even more at -0.75!

Taken Dukla -0.75 @ 1.943 on Pinny. Risking to win 2u.

Nothing to be said . Only to get on the train ;D.

[stemellor]

Nothing to be said . Only to get on the train ;D.

Lol! I'm probably a massive fade tomorrow after my luck today.

[Tenver]

Lol! I'm probably a massive fade tomorrow after my luck today.

It's just one of those games that seem good based on your analysis and the statistics. One of those where things line up + Zdenek Pospech used to play for the top team in Denmark hehe. (a player is actually recognizable from my position ). Sometimes you just have a feeling, you know? Where things line up alright . Like the Helsingborg game. Of course though, it could be a total blow-out 0-3 hehe. I think your luck will continue though .

[stemellor]

It's just one of those games that seem good based on your analysis and the statistics. One of those where things line up + Zdenek Pospech used to play for the top team in Denmark hehe. (a player is actually recognizable from my position ). Sometimes you just have a feeling, you know? Where things line up alright . Like the Helsingborg game. Of course though, it could be a total blow-out 0-3 hehe. I think your luck will continue though .

Yeah, Pospech seems to be their main man. He was the one I was searching for info on to make sure there was no news about him being injured. Think he's just 1 card away from a suspension though.

Wow!! Congrats!! Keep up the great job!!

Thanks Kat. May all your games stay under!

Thanks for the plays ste!

No worries Andy. A good day to tail.

[Pan43]

Excellent job,I've been tailing since Sunday thx for sharing the profit, and damn i am playing @WilliamHill and couldn't play Swiss game last night until it was listed in "In-Play Betting" section. BOL!

[lucasdawg]

arsenal and man city parlay?? anyone else on this?

[stemellor]

Excellent job,I've been tailing since Sunday thx for sharing the profit, and damn i am playing @WilliamHill and couldn't play Swiss game last night until it was listed in "In-Play Betting" section. BOL!

Thanks. Yeah, William Hill aren't great as they only have European Handicaps and not Asians. I use my William Hill for Basketball betting as they are quite slow at changing their lines so you can chase steam with them quite easily. They also have a really good range of prop bets. Are you able to get a Pinnacle or 5Dimes account as they are much better books? If not, Bet365 are okay for low limit betting as well.

[stemellor]

arsenal and man city parlay?? anyone else on this?

Tough one. Reading vs Man City is a meaningless game to both teams. Hard to judge who (if anyone) actually wants to win this. I'm pretty confident that Arsenal will get the win though.

[Tenver]

Arsenal I'd say will probably win, if nothing else just because Wigan must be pretty tired by now even though they had the amazing result of winning the FA cup, and Arsenal's generally stronger team. Not in so good form just recently though it seems. Still, I'd say Arsenal will win with either 1 or 2 most likely - but too low odds to be worth playing. Man City I can only except will want to redeem themselves and not look even worse than now, but even if they manage to win (which I think is still, if nothing else, a fair bet at odds 1.60+) then I highly doubt that the victory will be anything big. They are missing Zabaletta in the defence from a red card in the FA cup and Scott Sinclair is missing as well. Reading seem to have assorted injuries and bookings of which I don't know the effect of. A bet for win/lose on those would be Reading with AH +1.5 and Arsenal/Wigan I wouldn't dare to place a bet. Arsenal will most likely win, but the odds are small if they do - they might win with 1 or 2, so the Wigan +1,5 is quite risky in my opinion. I'd expect goals and goals in that game more than a specific winner by some specific margin - Wigan has scored an impressive amount of goals in their recent games. Still, Arsenal should take it especially being a participant from the BPL in Europe League/Champions League and Wigan probably being a bit tired after the last games. Not sure how much of Wigan's roster will be improved by returning players from former injury or quarentines or even how much will be repeats from the FA game.

I still think Man City will take the 2nd place and Chelsea 3rd, so Man City needs to win this to keep well ahead on the 2nd spot and because of that imperative + the star players gotta want to show some quality now even if their managed has just been sacked, I think City will walk out of it with a victory. Not a large one, though, probably. Therefore the Reading AH +1,5 seems alright to play around 1.525 atm. on Bet365. For Wigan, even though the bet seems good, I can still see Arsenal driving home a 2 goal victory and therefore would not be willing to risk it, but instead for that game, would probably play Wigan AH +2 at odds 1.475. I think it's unlikely enough that Arsenal win with a 3 goal margin to be willing to risk it - if Arsenal win with 1 or any other result happen, then it cashes - if Arsenal wins with 2, then it pushes back. That's alright odds/risk, I think.

Instead the both teams to score is surprisingly high looking at Wigan's amount of goals in their last games and would be my preferred bet - but again, we'll see how it goes.

[lucasdawg]

wow nice write up thanks!

i totally agree with what you are saying with arsenal v wigan - they are probably warn out from the game even though coming in with some confidence. but it was a last minute goal pretty much, and this is also a home game for arsenal which provides them that extra motivation.

man city was a tough one i was thinking about- i was only considering them as they wont wanna lose face and lose twice in a week. im sure they will come out to take the win.

thanks for the support guys

[Pan43]

And another perfect day, IMPRESSIVE!!! But ofcourse i fell as sleep so couldn't catch Triglav game at "In-play". I am still happy tho. Once again great job pal.

[stemellor]

Adding 1 more play tomorrow.

Czech - Gambrinus Liga: Dukla vs Brno
This was the game that was rained off last week. I did a full write up earlier in the thread. Basically, I liked this at Dukla -1. I like this even more at -0.75!

Taken Dukla -0.75 @ 1.943 on Pinny. Risking to win 2u.

Slovenia Prva League
I also have a heavy lean on Koper vs Gorica in the Slovenian League. Koper have been excellent in the last few matches and are pushing to consolidate their European place. The odds aren't quite right for me to play pre-match. I have them with around a 60% chance of winning, so the current odds don't represent value to me. In-play it might be worth keeping a serious eye on though.

Edit: Pulled the trigger on Koper -1. Risking to win 1u.

Thought Wigan were going to do it at one stage, not to be though. Half a win from Dukla and a disappointing draw for Koper after they lead twice. Down 1.2 units today.

Overall record now: 23-19.5-2.5. +14.2u

[stemellor]

15 May

2 plays tomorrow:

Europa League final:
Taking Chelsea here. It goes without saying that Chelsea have had the best preparation. Chelsea with a late confidence boosting win and Benfica! Wow, effectively losing the title to Porto at the weekend with an injury time goal. Crushing.
Say what you want about Benitez, but he clearly has a point to prove to the media, Chelsea fans and Abramovic. He also knows how to win a European final.

Chelsea moneyline for 3u @ 2.41 on Pinny.

South Africa: Kaizer Chiefs vs Supersport:
Kaizer Chiefs just need 1 point to secure the league title. Kaizer Chiefs aren't in the best form of late and the moneyline doesn't represent value. Supersport are draw specialists away from home with over 60% of their away games finishing in a draw.

With the Chief's iffy form, the fact that they only need a draw to secure the league and Superport's tendencies to a draw I'm going to take 1-1.

Correct score: 1-1 @ 6.5 on Bet365. Risking to win 1u.

[Johndrama]

Can't tell you how sorry I am that koper didnt win. Wanted to make it a 2u play, then I realized it's a seaside derby, but still koper play attractive football. After watching the game I coudn't pull the trigger. Sorry it didn't work out for you.

Funny, just checked tomorrow's games, saw the african league and said 'man kaizer gonna draw this'. I might just put something on the draw. As for the chelsea game...I guess morally chelsea is in a better mood while benfica was robbed of 1 point in the last min but the odds are small on chelsea. The odds on over on the other hand are huge, I'm thinking of playing the over 2.0 live, the game must only go goaless for 10 min

[stemellor]

This is true, the markets seem to think a low scoring game. Even BTTS is 1.8 on Bet365

[stemellor]

Chelsea are currently around the 2.7 - 2.75 mark on Bet365. Wish I'd waited now.

[swordsandtequila]

Chelsea are currently around the 2.7 - 2.75 mark on Bet365. Wish I'd waited now.

Yep, I grabbed them yesterday at +139 (2.39) thinking the odds would drop, added another unit today @ +169, plus half unit on the over @ +112. Also a unit on btts -130. I don't care what the line movement shows, both teams are more than capable of scoring multiple goals so I'm running with it. Good luck today.

[stemellor]

16 May

I've got this one in nice and early as the odds might drop here. Also awaiting an asian handicap on one of the matches, so possible 2 plays tomorrow.

Denmark - Esbjerg vs OB:

Esbjerg are in great form at home winning 7 of the last 8 league matches. They have just won the Danish cup and beat the league leaders Copenhagen 2-0 away in the last match. OB have lost 4 of their last 5 away games and have actually lost all of their last 5 games home and away in the league.

Head 2 head records are very even, but the home have won the last 3 meetings between the sides. Last game in Esbjerg finished 3-0 to the home team.

I can't find any news about anyone being out for Esbjerg, so I'm taking:

Esbjerg -0.5 for 3u @ 1.925 on Bet365. If you have a Betnordic account there are slightly better odds on that site.

[Tenver]

OB is the laughing stock in Danish football atm. except another team may be in worse condition, AGF, though they just saved themselves from relegation. Two sub-top teams, AGF and OB. OB to lose again looks alright . Nice job on the Dukla one btw. .

[KATCHASE]

Fantastic hit on the Kaiser/Supersport match! This was one game I was looking at for the under, but couldn't quite pull the trigger. Anyway, great read on this match Stemellor & good luck with Chelsea today.

[swordsandtequila]

Yep, I grabbed them yesterday at +139 (2.39) thinking the odds would drop, added another unit today @ +169, plus half unit on the over @ +112. Also a unit on btts -130. I don't care what the line movement shows, both teams are more than capable of scoring multiple goals so I'm running with it. Good luck today.

What a sweat! Ramires played like a clown all day then makes up for it with one simple play at the end to earn the corner. Been burned by late goals so I'll take it.

[stemellor]

Fantastic hit on the Kaiser/Supersport match! This was one game I was looking at for the under, but couldn't quite pull the trigger. Anyway, great read on this match Stemellor & good luck with Chelsea today.

Thanks Kat. Appreciate it. Yes, great day today. 2 late goals cashed for me.

What a sweat! Ramires played like a clown all day then makes up for it with one simple play at the end to earn the corner. Been burned by late goals so I'll take it.

Feels great to be on the right end of those late goals! Looks like you made a killing on this game mate

[stemellor]

2 plays tomorrow:

Europa League final:
Taking Chelsea here. It goes without saying that Chelsea have had the best preparation. Chelsea with a late confidence boosting win and Benfica! Wow, effectively losing the title to Porto at the weekend with an injury time goal. Crushing.
Say what you want about Benitez, but he clearly has a point to prove to the media, Chelsea fans and Abramovic. He also knows how to win a European final.

Chelsea moneyline for 3u @ 2.41 on Pinny.

South Africa: Kaizer Chiefs vs Supersport:
Kaizer Chiefs just need 1 point to secure the league title. Kaizer Chiefs aren't in the best form of late and the moneyline doesn't represent value. Supersport are draw specialists away from home with over 60% of their away games finishing in a draw.

With the Chief's iffy form, the fact that they only need a draw to secure the league and Superport's tendencies to a draw I'm going to take 1-1.

Correct score: 1-1 @ 6.5 on Bet365. Risking to win 1u.

Wow! Never been so happy to see a Chelsea goal. Cashed as well with the correct score in the Kaizer game.
2-0 today, +5.2u.

Overall record: 25-19.5-2.5 +19.4u.

[Akatana]

Well done bro, Excellent!

[Johndrama]

Didn't want to say that I tailed your 1-1 correct score, was afraid I might jynx it, but I did; thought it might be a once in a lifetime play. Glad it worked out for both of us.

Did some research for tomorrow and I locked eyes with esbjerg, I have to say I agree with your pick and I think it might be last week's estoril pick, a very solid pick.