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Michigan/Oregon
The sharp forecast says Oregon beats Michigan 72-71. The pubic gauge says the same thing with Oregon winning 72-71.
The line opened with Michigan -1 on public support and the books knew they would take money on Oregon here. The Total opened above both numbers and despite that public thirst for Overs it has moved toward the forecast.
I don’t have much time but I can say the books have gotten moneyline pressure on Oregon and they expected it. At one point, near tip, I think it may show. The books opened with Michigan -1 but not in a sense to draw the underdog as we’ve seen in the past, when other underdog bets were coming in, but it does have a bit of the same effect.
I think Michigan backers are taking the spread and Oregon backers are picking up the upset. The books are taking a position here but that doesn’t mean the money will fall. Oregon could be the winner tonight, as it would give to those who’ve been taken and take from those who have given.
Despite the pressure on Oregon not being shown yet, I am passing on countering the forecast. This is the first game of the weekend and it is best from a trading perspective to pass and watch.
In terms of moneyflow I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oregon pull it off while Kansas takes out Purdue.
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sharp forecast has michigan beating oregon 82-73, gotta go with the value
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Chopped and Screwed by DJ Peppy
not even a real screw tape or even a watts tape
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WV/Gonzaga
The sharp forecast has Gonzaga beating West Virginia 73-64. The public gauge says Gonzaga wins 76-71.
The line opened a little low at Gonzaga -3 with pressure on the West Virginia moneyline but I still think the spread is a little low. The public is hitting West Virginia for sure, but I can see pressure outside of the forecasts on Gonzaga. This line appears fairly balanced but feels as though if the favorite wins, much of the public will be surprised.
The Total opened near the gauge and has moved higher on public support but I see pressure, again outside the forecast, on the Under. I think we may be seeing a market over reaction with this upward move. Unfortunately, metrics indicate passing rather than pressing the forecast with the Under. It will be interesting to see how this Total falls.
Again it’s an early game and the first in San Jose. I am looking for moneyflow indications that will lead us into a Kansas bet. These first two games on the rotation tonight could provide those final metrics but these first two games offer lines that make it difficult to reach a conclusion for the later game. At this point I can only speculate and look for supporting evidence. I would expect some ambiguity and playing close to the number as we approach the next game.
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dj screw is from the south side of h town
dj michael watts is from the north side
anyone else putting out chopped and screwed mixes are imposters
gonzaga gonna win it allComment -
There are many ways to handicap and this game can put many against each other. This semblance of balance is one of the reasons this game is a trading pass and that I feel the money on this game could go either way. While this game does offer settlement with either result, I think there is a bigger picture of moneyflow involved.
Good Luck with Michigan Grapes.
I've been posting forecasts for every Tourney game after posting every Conference tourney game for 8 conferences. Some crazy power posting but a good ride for sure.
I hope all is well with. CashFlow thought the dangers of Chicago finally caught up with you. It's all that hardcore bangin' you're into that's going to be the downfall...lol.
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Purdue/Kansas
The sharp forecast says Kansas beats Purdue 81-69. The public gauge has Kansas winning 81-78.
The line opened early above the gauge with Kansas -4 and we’ve seen it move toward my line. The Total opened between the numbers and has moved toward my line. I am not surprised by the Kansas pressure and the public is adding to it.
I think Kansas gets this one but the line is moving. There are groups that have been paid recently that are likely to give some back on Purdue tonight as well as some pressure to see a tournament upset that metrics indicate will fail. I see this as the moneyflow but in order to press the forecast and take a worse line the open I will need stronger confirmation than we have now. As these first two games get further along I will be considering a Kansas bet.
This game is a touchy situation, the underdog money is actually pretty sharp from a market reading perspective and many may have signals to abandon the underdog. Just when you get groups leaving the underdog is when it could come and metrics are a bit mixed in that sense.
This means this will likely be a late trade with the worst line, the makings of a pass. Let’s see what develops between now and then and let’s see if there will be any -5’s left out there.
I gave the forecat some popcorn, now he won't look up.
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Oregon leading by two at half. This will add pressure to Kansas and increases the chances that Kansas wins but does not cover the spread. This short term probability shift is not by itself enough to trigger a bet either way, but is something to follow.
Because it is so predictable, this effect on the market would have the sharks out for Oregon backers right now.
Grapes, trailing by two at half, your Michigan bet is looking better and better.
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easy play on purdue
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This line moved to a pick and even traded at Oregon -1 at some houses. The books waited and showed the pressure at once. This can create steam and with early buying on Oregon, it bodes well for Michigan backers.
Once again Grapes, Michigan looking better and better.
Playing close but behind is a good sign. It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.
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Xavier/Arizona
The sharp forecast says Arizona beats Xavier 73 to 71. The public gauge says Zona wins 76-68.
The line opened just shy of the gauge and hasn’t really moved. Notice the Total, right at both numbers and sticking there, despite that public Over pressure we’ve seen during tourney time also here.
The money appears to be split here as the public does like Arizona. The line was placed to defend against the Zona pressure. Some line analysis indicates the favorite. We’ve seen more than once this tourney that line analysis hold until a final move at tip, changing the analysis, only to have the original play fail. Even so, it must be considered.
I think many like an upset here but I don’t have indication to counter the monyeline or the spread play that is in the forecast. In fact, back to that idea of reasons for and against, I have reasons to not take either team in this match, from a trading perspective. Sometimes it happens that way.
Predictably, Michigan took the lead inside 5 minutes. Let’s see if they can hold it. We’re still few minutes from the next game, maybe a little OT to start the weekend.
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In some places the pressure is coming. If you followed the pressure in the first game in Kansas City, an Oregon bet would have won.
If one follows the pressure now, in these give and take markets, a bettor would be on Kansas.
You can see, in this way, adding line movement of the earlier game to the flow of money, the market has generated another give and take situation to erode what was should be Kansas, but…I can identify several situations at this point leading to a Purdue bet.
If there is a reversal before game time, and we see the line hit -5, don’t be surprised as the market may think it has the answer. I think that’s the move to counter and Kansas is the bet.
We still have a few minutes and I am waiting to see what signals develop. The market may just sit as well.
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Here comes the drop, things move fast. The Oregon/Kansas two pick may be the moneyflow answer. As a defenses, perhaps we see a 5 point game.
At this point, I would be very careful about a Purdue bet. I would also be thinking about the situation described above and the fact that Kansas sat at -5.5 in some places for a while today.
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Without getting the movement and line desired for trading and pressing the forecast, I passed.
I think, that if Purdue takes the lead, as further confirmation, a live Kansas bet gets placed.
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I have picked up Kansas -3.5 (-112) and -153 over Purdue.
Good Luck.
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I have also Kansas -2.5 (-127) over Purdue.
That should be the final trade here.
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Time to eat some fajitas.
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The forecasts are 3-0 against the moneyline, 2-0 with a push against the spread and now the forecast calls for Xavier against the spread and Arizona moneyline.
One of those should fail...Xavier spread or Zona moneyline.
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refs gave it to kansasComment -
unc under jumps out a littleComment -
good to see you back around by the wayComment -
Fidel!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
Boooey!!!!!!!Comment -
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fidel how has life been palComment -
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Zona took an 8 point lead inside 4 minutes, covering the spread, then proceed to lose.
