president futures are paying big

[raiders72001]

Popular Vote 59/41 Harris

[raiders72001]

That's completely incorrect: according to Goldman Sachs, the Trump Victory index just hit an all time high while the Kamala index is back to Joe Biden Levels. Meanwhile, JPMorgan said that hedge funds are piling into Republican winner trades while dumping Democrat winners. https://x.com/DRUDGE/status//DRUDGE/status/1847083041530741231

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1847086813011148970

[raiders72001]

I'm not sure exactly where to put this so I won't be offended if moved or deleted. I only put it here since a comparison is made to the betting market.

Let’s get back to the rallying dollar, and the “Trump trade” which has lifted the US currency against a basket of rivals – along with stronger economic data that led markets to scale back expectations of interest rate cuts.The dollar index rose by 0.2% to 104.36, the highest since early August. Against the pound, the dollar ticked up to $1.2984 this morning.
Alix Stewart, fund manager at Schroders, explained on BBC radio 4’s Today programme:

Markets seem to be pricing in pretty much in line with the betting markets, which are now moving pretty much in Trump’s direction. Actually, when you look at the polls, it is much, much closer.
Looking at the wider impact of a second Trump administration, she said:
If it’s Trump with a clean sweep so he has both houses, then it’s expected that he can enact more contentious policies, like his tariff policy, which would obviously have impacts on inflation and also the cost of borrowing longer term in the US.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-business-live

[Optional]

64/36 Trump

GA 76/25 Trump
AZ 74/27 Trump
NC 71/30 Trump
NV 64/37 Trump
PA 62/40 Trump
MI 59/41 Trump
WI 57/42 Trump

https://polymarket.com/markets/all/swing-states

Pinny -180 Trump
Betfair 62/38

NV early voting has Trump up.

It would be very weird if counting of early votes, and release of the data, was actually allowed.

Pretty much the #1 rule of a democratic election is no indication of vote count until polls are closed.

[Headsterx]

It would be very weird if counting of early votes, and release of the data, was actually allowed.

Pretty much the #1 rule of a democratic election is no indication of vote count until polls are closed.

Each state has their own rules, but none releases result updates before Election Day. However, data on an early voter is available. It varies on the data but generally it will provide the voter’s party. The more data that is provided on that early voter, then one can make a better calculated guess on how that early voter voted.

[Optional]

Each state has their own rules, but none releases result updates before Election Day. However, data on an early voter is available. It varies on the data but generally it will provide the voter’s party. The more data that is provided on that early voter, then one can make a better calculated guess on how that early voter voted.

makes sense

[lakerboy]

The conventional thinking is that Trump will lose the popular vote( the odds on that have dropped ALOT though). Let's say he can't win the popular vote so why not take no at +125 on the first prop and Harris+135 to win the presidency? Am I missing something?

Yes is+110 now. Trump to win the popular vote is down to+175.

[raiders72001]

It would be very weird if counting of early votes, and release of the data, was actually allowed.

Pretty much the #1 rule of a democratic election is no indication of vote count until polls are closed.

People can crossover vote but when you register to vote in most states in the US, you mark down your party affiliation, democrat, republican or no party. This along with new party registration gives a good idea of what is happening.

Nevada Early Voting Could Signal 'Serious Danger' for Kamala Harris

https://www.newsweek.com/nevada-earl...harris-1972715

While Democrats lead in mail voting (42.5 percent Democrats and 30.2 percent Republicans), Republicans are dominating with in-person early voting (27.8 percent Democrat and 51.9 percent Republicans), giving them the lead so far overall.

https://nypost.com/2024/10/22/us-news/early-vote-totals-indicate-trump-is-going-to-be-president-on-election-day-mark-halperin/

Early vote totals indicate Trump is ‘going to be president on Election Day,’ veteran political journalist says

[k13]

Trump odds just dropped huge.
Only 59%

Kamala to win popular vote at -200 or less is a gift.

[raiders72001]

$100k yes Trump and $31k no Kamala just got it back up again.

[RudyRuetigger]

my joke in the contest thread got removed.

it is what it is, either play the game or dont

[raiders72001]

October 23, 2016 Clinton +5.9
October 23, 2020 Biden +8.0

[raiders72001]

If you like Kamala, this line should go a lot higher after Rogan. Trump has 3 hours where he'll create a lot of viral moments. All his viral moments are from something funny. I don't think Kamala goes on Rogan. All her viral moments come from gaffes and her word salads.

[JohnGalt2341]

If you like Kamala, this line should go a lot higher after Rogan. Trump has 3 hours where he'll create a lot of viral moments. All his viral moments are from something funny. I don't think Kamala goes on Rogan. All her viral moments come from gaffes and her word salads.

You may be correct about this, especially if all Rogan throws at him are softballs. But please consider this, since 2020, can you name 5 interviews Trump has done that aren't with people that already support him? I'll give you 2 right off the bat, he did one with Leslie Stahl on 60 Minutes. She asked him a couple slightly tough questions, and Trump threw a temper trantrum and stormed out. In 2022 he had an interview with NPR's Steve Inskeep, he basically did the same thing there. The majority of his interviews are with people that are already MAGA. If Rogan asks him even 3 tough questions in 3 hours, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Trump cut the interview short. Perhaps by 2 hours or more.

IMO, Trump would be smart to back out of this interview at the last minute and make some lame excuse as to why he did so. He's already leading in the polls and the betting markets. He has more to lose than to gain IMO. Trump may be underestimating Rogan, or perhaps I am overestimating him. We shall see.

[DwightShrute]

You may be correct about this, especially if all Rogan throws at him are softballs. But please consider this, since 2020, can you name 5 interviews Trump has done that aren't with people that already support him? I'll give you 2 right off the bat, he did one with Leslie Stahl on 60 Minutes. She asked him a couple slightly tough questions, and Trump threw a temper trantrum and stormed out. In 2022 he had an interview with NPR's Steve Inskeep, he basically did the same thing there. The majority of his interviews are with people that are already MAGA. If Rogan asks him even 3 tough questions in 3 hours, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Trump cut the interview short. Perhaps by 2 hours or more.

IMO, Trump would be smart to back out of this interview at the last minute and make some lame excuse as to why he did so. He's already leading in the polls and the betting markets. He has more to lose than to gain IMO. Trump may be underestimating Rogan, or perhaps I am overestimating him. We shall see.

None of what you are saying is true.

I think its best you take your own advice ...

Please don't comment in this thread unless you enter the contest. AND if/when you do enter it, please keep your comments on topic(why you think such and such State will or will not be Blue/Red). Comments like the one you just posted are COMPLETELY POINTLESS and are just cluttering up the thread for no reason at all.

... rather than making up more COMPLETELY POINTLESS nonsense. That's what the saloon threads are for. I am sure Hareeballs will appreciate your commitment to deception. No need to thank me.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NEW: Kamala Harris’ odds to win the election on political betting platform Polymarket remain flat after The Atlantic’s hit piece on Trump completely flopped. <br><br>When you lie to people for 10+ years, don't be surprised when nobody believes you.<br><br>Kamala Harris, Karine Jean-Pierre,… <a href="https://t.co/4pkp9bTrj5">pic.twitter.com/4pkp9bTrj5</a></p>&mdash; Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) <a href="https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1849224416757973311?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 23, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[JohnGalt2341]

None of what you are saying is true.

I think its best you take your own advice ...



... rather than making up more COMPLETELY POINTLESS nonsense. That's what the saloon threads are for. I am sure Hareeballs will appreciate your commitment to deception. No need to thank me.

We shall see. You are about as realistic as your Electoral map. If/when Trump loses, don't be that surprised. Trump may win, and if he does, it won't be by much. But if he loses... I'm telling you right now... don't be surprised. Because I can tell you exactly why it happened. And it won't be rigged, I assure you of this. The courts and the Trump appointed judges will assure you of this as well.

[DwightShrute]

We shall see. You are about as realistic as your Electoral map. If/when Trump loses, don't be that surprised. It amuses me that you trust a patholgical lying obese man that says he weighs 215 over someone with a strong political predicting track record that is well documented. Trump may win, and if he does, it won't be by much. But if he loses... I'm telling you right now... don't be surprised. Because I can tell you exactly why it happened. And it won't be rigged, I assure you of this. The courts and the Trump appointed judges will assure you of this as well.

it already is rigged John! Wake up and open your eyes. Doesn't mean he can't win. Look at all the bullshit court cases. Or did you forget already? Are there even any left? I lost track. One case he was found guilty of a paperwork fine they invented just for him, where they paraded him to court everyday to sit there an listen to the sham prosecution with a corrupt judge whose daughter raises millions for the democrats, and eventually the jury had to deliberately find him guilty of 34 counts of what exactly? No one even really knows what he was guilty of. It doesn't even matter because the people you listen you have convicted felon soundbite in their pocket to use anytime. Its so dumb. Then the 487 million judgement in the other case where he paid back with interest and the bank even showed up in Trump's defense to say they would load him more money anytime he asked.

Nothing but snapshots and soundbites which is all elections are anymore. They are rigging the election right there in the open and they don't care because they know people like you don't care.

The weak men and angry women who watch The View will keep repeating the bullshit they have been feed. They will keep coming back to the table begging for more. They keep repeating the same old lines. Russian. Hitler. Fine people. Several dozens more. Its a mental illness of some kind. TDS.

Trump exaggerates a lot. That is his style. Everyone knows this. As far as lying goes, Biden is the king. Anyone who votes for Kamala is a moron like she is. She's a snake. She's evil. America's enemies want her to win.

The only way Trump loses is if they assassinate him or they come up with some other way to steal the election this time round. It can't possibly be close. Every time Kamala speaks it gets worse for her because she say nothing and she needs to speak to get votes. Lose lose scenario. She's a loser.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">11 DAYS TO GO... TRUMP IS DOMINATING OVER HARRIS<br><br>2024 Election (Odds to Win)<br>��Trump 61.5% (+22.8)<br>��Harris 38.7%<br><br>He continues to lead in all 7 swing states. <a href="https://t.co/yYzL2BybR7">pic.twitter.com/yYzL2BybR7</a></p>&mdash; Election Time (@ElectionTime_) <a href="https://twitter.com/ElectionTime_/status/1849470124052689332?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 24, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[d2bets]

it already is rigged John! Wake up and open your eyes. Doesn't mean he can't win. Look at all the bullshit court cases. Or did you forget already? Are there even any left? I lost track. One case he was found guilty of a paperwork fine they invented just for him, where they paraded him to court everyday to sit there an listen to the sham prosecution with a corrupt judge whose daughter raises millions for the democrats, and eventually the jury had to deliberately find him guilty of 34 counts of what exactly? No one even really knows what he was guilty of. It doesn't even matter because the people you listen you have convicted felon soundbite in their pocket to use anytime. Its so dumb. Then the 487 million judgement in the other case where he paid back with interest and the bank even showed up in Trump's defense to say they would load him more money anytime he asked.

Nothing but snapshots and soundbites which is all elections are anymore. They are rigging the election right there in the open and they don't care because they know people like you don't care.

The weak men and angry women who watch The View will keep repeating the bullshit they have been feed. They will keep coming back to the table begging for more. They keep repeating the same old lines. Russian. Hitler. Fine people. Several dozens more. Its a mental illness of some kind. TDS.

Trump exaggerates a lot. That is his style. Everyone knows this. As far as lying goes, Biden is the king. Anyone who votes for Kamala is a moron like she is. She's a snake. She's evil. America's enemies want her to win.

The only way Trump loses is if they assassinate him or they come up with some other way to steal the election this time round. It can't possibly be close. Every time Kamala speaks it gets worse for her because she say nothing and she needs to speak to get votes. Lose lose scenario. She's a loser.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">11 DAYS TO GO... TRUMP IS DOMINATING OVER HARRIS<br><br>2024 Election (Odds to Win)<br>��Trump 61.5% (+22.8)<br>��Harris 38.7%<br><br>He continues to lead in all 7 swing states. <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/yYzL2BybR7">pic.twitter.com/yYzL2BybR7</a></p>&mdash; Election Time (@ElectionTime_) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/ElectionTime_/status/1849470124052689332?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 24, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Dominating? 61/39 to 50/50 is like a team punting on the first drive of the game. Means not that much. -160 favorites lose every day of the week.

[raiders72001]

You may be correct about this, especially if all Rogan throws at him are softballs. But please consider this, since 2020, can you name 5 interviews Trump has done that aren't with people that already support him? I'll give you 2 right off the bat, he did one with Leslie Stahl on 60 Minutes. She asked him a couple slightly tough questions, and Trump threw a temper trantrum and stormed out. In 2022 he had an interview with NPR's Steve Inskeep, he basically did the same thing there. The majority of his interviews are with people that are already MAGA. If Rogan asks him even 3 tough questions in 3 hours, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Trump cut the interview short. Perhaps by 2 hours or more.

IMO, Trump would be smart to back out of this interview at the last minute and make some lame excuse as to why he did so. He's already leading in the polls and the betting markets. He has more to lose than to gain IMO. Trump may be underestimating Rogan, or perhaps I am overestimating him. We shall see.

In the last 10 years, prior to Harris backing out of the Fox debate, Trump hasn't turned down any major interviews. He's done more interviews than any other president or candidate. Stahl lied about Trump. Trump said he'll go back on 60 minutes if Stahl apologizes for the lies. The thing that Trump does wrong is say dumb things and he had a brutal debate. His actions are fine.

Rogan isn't adversarial to anyone unless they attack him or say things that aren't true. After the Rogan interview, the odds will jump big time.

[raiders72001]

Pinny -177 Trump

AZ -274 Trump
GA -230 Trump
NC -234 Trump
NV -172 Trump
PA -149 Trump
WI -125 Trump
MI -119 Harris


Poly 64/36 Trump

AZ 72/29 Trump
GA 72/29 Trump
NC 69/32 Trump
NV 65/35 Trump
WI 56/44 Trump
MI 55/46 Trump
PA 61/32 Trump

[KRIT]

Wasn't expecting to see such heavy odds for Trump but that must give an idea of what will happen a couple weeks from now.

[DwightShrute]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TRUMP TIES HARRIS IN THE RCP NATIONAL AVERAGE.<br><br>2024 Popular Vote<br>��Trump 48.5% (tie)<br>��Harris 48.5%<br><br>This is HUGE for Republicans, who haven’t won the popular vote since 2004.<br><br>If Trump wins the popular vote, or even gets close, there is no way Harris will be able to win the… <a href="https://t.co/RqwZ7g7QFs">pic.twitter.com/RqwZ7g7QFs</a></p>&mdash; Election Time (@ElectionTime_) <a href="https://twitter.com/ElectionTime_/status/1849814458484322409?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 25, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[asiagambler]

Harris number is gonna keep rising up until the election

The first correct post you've ever made I think

[lakerboy]

Dominating? 61/39 to 50/50 is like a team punting on the first drive of the game. Means not that much. -160 favorites lose every day of the week.

Yes they do and+155 dogs win every day as well. The only thing is that this is every 4 years not everyday. How often have books been wrong on the election line?

[JohnGalt2341]

Yes they do and+155 dogs win every day as well. The only thing is that this is every 4 years not everyday. How often have books been wrong on the election line?

Probably about as often as everything else. They nailed that last one. But the one before that, they were WAY off. My feeling is, there are very few election betting experts(just like most forms of wagering). And as you might have noticed, these Lines aren't exactly stable. So when the Line does move, why does it move? The Polls? Large wagers? I don't put a lot of trust in either of these things. Also, an argument could be made that the Books are unlikley to be sharp for Presidential Elections BECAUSE they happen so rarely.

It's more than likely the Books will get it right, but if they don't, nobody should be that surprised.

[lakerboy]

Probably about as often as everything else. They nailed that last one. But the one before that, they were WAY off. My feeling is, there are very few election betting experts(just like most forms of wagering). And as you might have noticed, these Lines aren't exactly stable. So when the Line does move, why does it move? The Polls? Large wagers? I don't put a lot of trust in either of these things. Also, an argument could be made that the Books are unlikley to be sharp for Presidential Elections BECAUSE they happen so rarely.

It's more than likely the Books will get it right, but if they don't, nobody should be that surprised.

I'm here to help.

https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/other/potus-odds/

[lakerboy]

Looks like Grover Cleveland was a dog winner two times. In a few days him and Trump will have something else in common.

[JohnGalt2341]

I'm here to help.

https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/other/potus-odds/

Nice! To me it looks like a typical College Football Saturday. They get most right, but not always. And just like I said, they will likely get this one right, but don't be surprised if they don't.

[k13]

Looks like anything above -150 and books get it right.

[ByeShea]

Dominating? 61/39 to 50/50 is like a team punting on the first drive of the game. Means not that much. -160 favorites lose every day of the week.

Solid analogy.

Just remember that one team has a generational talent under center and the other has a nervous clown with no arm off the bench. For real.

[raiders72001]

Pinny -187

[BiloxiSaintsFan]

Dang. Trump starting to run away with this thing based off where the line was just a couple months ago.

But hey, he got up to -500 right before midnight against ole Joe and then when we woke up something weird had happened overnight and Joe won. So, I’ll never count the other side out

[DrunkHorseplayer]

I read an article and it stated that one single person is responsible for about $20 million dollars in bets in the polymarket, all of it on Trump, which is skewing the odds. Take that into account when wagering.

[ByeShea]

If you like betting states, Virginia's governor mandated use of paper ballots to tally votes - if anyone recalls in 2020, Virginia was trending Trump and then at the last second- WHAP, a few random tranches of Biden votes appear at the eleventh hour and VA went blue, there's nothing to see, so there's nothing to discuss ... but they knew what happened.

Youngkin: We will use 100% paper ballots with a strict chain of custody. We use counting machines, not voting machines, that are tested prior to every election and never connected to the internet. We do not mass mail ballots. We monitor our drop boxes 24/7,"


VA will be red as an apple.

Me said so in August.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Virginia Republicans are reportedly WINNING THE IN PERSON EARLY VOTE.<br><br>Holy shlit.</p>&mdash; Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1850561641785516106?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 27, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[raiders72001]

Pinny -191