president futures are paying big

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Annnd kamalas "lead" is gone. Fake overreaction from the Biden withdrawal. Kamalas extreme spending and liberal extremism was always going to come out in the end . The market is correcting as i predicted...
Trump odds will skyrocket now

We'll see. Trump was Dog for a while.

[blankoblanco]

Annnd kamalas "lead" is gone. Fake overreaction from the Biden withdrawal. Kamalas extreme spending and liberal extremism was always going to come out in the end . The market is correcting as i predicted...
Trump odds will skyrocket now

Easy come easy go. It will probably swing back the other way at least once before the election. I'm curious what caused this one though. It's kinda hard for me to believe it was based on something like tax plans, the majority of people being polled probably aren't even aware of these things

[DanteNemonic]

Taylor Swift's flight tracker shows she's headed back to the US right now during her overseas tour.

Please, sweet baby Jesus, tell me it is to endorse Kamala at the DNC, tomorrow!!

Last call at -105 for Kamala.
All aboard Choo! Choo!

[DwightShrute]

Taylor Swift's flight tracker shows she's headed back to the US right now during her overseas tour.

Please, sweet baby Jesus, tell me it is to endorse Kamala at the DNC, tomorrow!!

Last call at -105 for Kamala.
All aboard Choo! Choo!

[homie1975]

Taylor Swift's flight tracker shows she's headed back to the US right now during her overseas tour.

Please, sweet baby Jesus, tell me it is to endorse Kamala at the DNC, tomorrow!!

Last call at -105 for Kamala.
All aboard Choo! Choo!

tomorrow night expect BEYONCE to make a surprise appearance

TAYLOR endorses when the first ballots go out.

and then it is A WRAP

[blankoblanco]

Annnd kamalas "lead" is gone. Fake overreaction from the Biden withdrawal. Kamalas extreme spending and liberal extremism was always going to come out in the end . The market is correcting as i predicted...
Trump odds will skyrocket now

Actually now I'm pretty sure the exact reason for the market shift was that it changed the moment insiders knew RFK was gonna bow out and endorse Trump. Which makes sense, it could definitely make a difference.

[Optional]

This thread is about betting on the election.

Not arguing who you think should be voted for or attacking each other.


If your comment is not 100% about the betting markets for the election, please take it to one of The Saloon threads on politics

[blankoblanco]

Odds already swinging back to Harris a little bit after a brief Trump lead from RFK withdrawing and endorsing him. From what I can tell she has a very slight lead, but it's nearly dead even.

Can't wait for the debate

[JohnGalt2341]

I like the value in this as well. Whenever there are 2 "wild cards" going at it(particularly political stuff), I usually think the smart money is on the dog. He may not win, but at +250 I think it's worth a shot. I'm going to keep an eye on this, and likely post updates.

This Line has moved:



Just curious... am I the only one to bet on a Republican in this thread?



I bet most of you Trumpers thought I ONLY bet on Dems.

[mcaulay777]

Looking at betonline ag Harris Trump both -110 looking at the states I prob would bet not any Political Views just gambling, Harris to Win Pa,Nevada Wisconsin and Trump to win Arizona that one i have flipped back and forth this might change in a month the one i wont change would be Pa i think Harris will take that state!

[TheGoldenGoose]

Who decides the winner of a debate?

[JohnGalt2341]

Who decides the winner of a debate?

Current prices at BO:



For any of you Trumpers that might be seeing this... I would think you would like these Odds. Just imagine how he will tell everyone how great he is... and not to mention the insults. That alone will surely win him the debate. If you think Trump has at least a 38% chance of winning this debate, then this is a good bet for you!

[TheGoldenGoose]

oddschecker


Kamala Harris +102

Donald Trump +108

[JohnGalt2341]

oddschecker


Kamala Harris +102

Donald Trump +108

????

Can I max out on both?

[TheGoldenGoose]

oddschecker just reports on a consensus of sportsbooks so you won't find just one book offering these odds. If you are a big-baller (I am not) and had access to many books you might find a middle.

[Pareto]

????


Can I max out on both?

Right now Betfair has Kamala Harris +102 and Trump +106 and you can bet a lot on both.

However two months ago the candidates were called Biden and Trump. Two months later one of them has withdrawn and the other was almost killed. A lot can happen in two months. Especially if you are 78 years old and morbidly obese.

[JohnGalt2341]

oddschecker just reports on a consensus of sportsbooks so you won't find just one book offering these odds. If you are a big-baller (I am not) and had access to many books you might find a middle.

Makes sense(sort of). I virtually never use Oddschecker. But what I have to wonder is... is it a consensus or a Best Price? Because a consensus still seems odd to me. How can the consensus have +EV Odds for both candidates?

[JohnGalt2341]

Jails don't weigh you. There was no scale to step on. Obviously neither is accurate.
We can play the don't care about you game.
Kamala doesn't care about you. Or she wouldn't be for open borders and excessive spending

Just curious... WHY did the Sportsbooks have a wager on this? Did they know in advance that they were going by the honor system?(going by what Trump would SAY he weighs?). And if so... why in the HELL would they set it so high? Did they REALLY believe Trump would say he weighs more than 273.5?



Don't test me my friend... it's very unlikely that you will win. Unlike Trump, I provide PROOF. Your best bet is to follow my political predictions. You could be up WELL OVER a grand by now. It's not too late to start.

[Optional]

This thread is about betting on the election.

Not arguing who you think should be voted for or attacking each other.


If your comment is not 100% about the betting markets for the election, please take it to one of The Saloon threads on politics

Asking nicely for a second time.

[potamushippo]

Any Book offering Presidential Election full Alternate Lines?

Like say X Candidate over 300, 400 Electoral College...or Under 45,40% Popular Vote, etc.
Same for House & Senate majority margins...
Individual States...

TIA

[JohnGalt2341]

Like say X Candidate over 300, 400 Electoral College...or Under 45,40% Popular Vote, etc.
Same for House & Senate majority margins...
Individual States...

TIA

Probably not what you are looking for, but they have this at BetOnline:



They also have this:

[blankoblanco]

Harris by 0-2.49% at +400 looks mighty tempting to me

For reference, the 2020 election was 51.3% popular vote for Biden, 46.8% for Trump. Going back to 2016 was 48.2% for Clinton, 46.1% for Trump.

Racism and misogyny are alive and well, and polls sometimes lie about this because people hide it. But recent history still tells me Trump probably won't win the popular vote. So I could see the result being similar to 2016

[blankoblanco]

Another interesting/amusing thing about those popular vote odds: at the lower differentials they're not too far apart. But Harris is +800 to win by landslides (either 7.5%-9.9% or larger) whereas Trump is +8000 for both. If numbers could speak, I think they're saying there's a realistic chance that Trump has a complete meltdown that destroys his electability, whereas Harris has almost no such chance to do that. Unless someone else has a different interpretation

[TheGoldenGoose]

“Polls sometimes lie about this because people hide it”

I most definitely agree with this observation. Explains why Billary got trounced in 2016. Here in 2024 there are many pizzed off women about Roe v Wade reversal that are skewing the numbers.

[k13]

Another interesting/amusing thing about those popular vote odds: at the lower differentials they're not too far apart. But Harris is +800 to win by landslides (either 7.5%-9.9% or larger) whereas Trump is +8000 for both. If numbers could speak, I think they're saying there's a realistic chance that Trump has a complete meltdown that destroys his electability, whereas Harris has almost no such chance to do that. Unless someone else has a different interpretation

Because there's a huge chance the swing states will have fake ballots.
No one is afraid of Republicans cheating.

[k13]

50/49 at polymarket.
See how it changes after this fake interview tomorrow.

[JohnGalt2341]

Because there's a huge chance the swing states will have fake ballots.
No one is afraid of Republicans cheating.

You do know about the Republican fake elector scheme, don't you? I could probably name another 100 examples if I did less than an hours worth of research.

Also, if you truly believe that there is a HUGE chance of the swing states having fake ballots, then you should most definitely bet on the Dems in these states. I don't see why you wouldn't. I know I would if I had such beliefs.

[JohnGalt2341]

I was looking over some Lines at BetOnline. I found one I like.



I definitely like the Dems chances here. I'll be fairly surprised if this Line hasn't moved by election time. But as always... I could be wrong.

[blankoblanco]

Nice find, John. And unless there was a mistake in my cursory research (aka using Google for 3 minutes) the Democrat margin of victory in New York has been over 20% for every presidential election since 2008, usually quite a bit over. The closest was 2016, where Clinton "only" won by around 22.5%

I'm also surprised by the line and maybe even slightly suspicious of it. I can't claim to be particularly in touch with current New York voters, I only know recent history and what I expect. From what I can tell it seems like it should be a 60% to 35% sort of vote yet again.

[Optional]

Fantastic job sharing the ideas for election bets JohnGalt

[ByeShea]

You do know about the Republican fake elector scheme, don't you? I could probably name another 100 examples if I did less than an hours worth of research.

Also, if you truly believe that there is a HUGE chance of the swing states having fake ballots, then you should most definitely bet on the Dems in these states. I don't see why you wouldn't. I know I would if I had such beliefs.

If you like betting states, Virginia's governor mandated use of paper ballots to tally votes - if anyone recalls in 2020, Virginia was trending Trump and then at the last second- WHAP, a few random tranches of Biden votes appear at the eleventh hour and VA went blue, there's nothing to see, so there's nothing to discuss ... but they knew what happened.

Youngkin: We will use 100% paper ballots with a strict chain of custody. We use counting machines, not voting machines, that are tested prior to every election and never connected to the internet. We do not mass mail ballots. We monitor our drop boxes 24/7,"


VA will be red as an apple.

[k13]

You do know about the Republican fake elector scheme, don't you? I could probably name another 100 examples if I did less than an hours worth of research.

Also, if you truly believe that there is a HUGE chance of the swing states having fake ballots, then you should most definitely bet on the Dems in these states. I don't see why you wouldn't. I know I would if I had such beliefs.

Even better is you could get + money on both sides.
Different Books had +160 Dems and +150 rep.
Not sure if anyone noticed.
Took them three days to adjust.

[DanteNemonic]

Because there's a huge chance the swing states will have fake ballots.
No one is afraid of Republicans cheating.

You actually say this with a straight face? Donald Trump was actually arrested and awaiting trial for trying to steal the 2020 election (exact reason for that ridiculous mug shot).

Many Republicans have already pleaded guilty to their fake electors scheme and many others are still awaiting trial as well.

Are some of you folks really this uninformed?

[JohnGalt2341]

Even better is you could get + money on both sides.
Different Books had +160 Dems and +150 rep.
Not sure if anyone noticed.
Took them three days to adjust.

Many Books are definitely not sharp when it comes to Politics. If you should happen to see a specific example of what you are talking about in the future, it would be great if you posted it in here!

[TheGoldenGoose]

Countdown days to November 5, 2024

64

ODDSCHECKER

TRUMP +100

HARRIS +110