president futures are paying big

[Optional]

I personally think that best time to bet on TRUMP might be right AFTER the debate. BetOnline is currently giving Harris roughly a 64% chance(it wouldn't surprise me at all if this increases slightly in the weeks to come) to win the debate, if we are to trust their current No-Vig odds. I would say that's about right IMO.

I've said it before and I'll say it again... a college football team that is ranked 50th in the country is going to look pretty damn good against the worst team in the nation. But against a top 40 team, they aren't going to look nearly as good. We shall see.

I will say this though... Trump will likely say these types of things during the debate..."During my administration we had the greatest economy in the history of mankind... and you're not going to have a country if you vote for KH... etc etc." It will be bragging and what not, along with insults and scare tactics. And all the Right-Wingers will say stuff like... "Trump ANNIHIlLATED Harris!!" And I will be thinking... "He didn't say a damn thing!! All he did was attempt to brag and attempt to insult and attempt to scare people!! It's nothing!"

I wish people would consider that if Trump loses the election, there is less than a 1% chance that he will accept the results. If every candidate that ran did this, what do you think would happen to the U.S. in a very short period of time?

Does that mean you would bet on Harris to win the debate?

I'd be surprised if there is any consensus on who won the debate. The last Biden/Trump one was a weird anomaly I think.

[JohnGalt2341]

Does that mean you would bet on Harris to win the debate?

I'd be surprised if there is any consensus on who won the debate. The last Biden/Trump one was a weird anomaly I think.

At +100 Odds, I most definitely would. But not at -225(BetOnline price). Trump is priced at +160. I think this is about right IMO.

Yeah, I'm not sure how BetOnline decides who won the debate. I will likely bet just $1 on Trump, just to see who they picked as the winner.

[Optional]

I still don't understand why you wait until after the debate unless you are confident Harris will win it outright.

You're thinking is the direct opposite of what I suggested.

[JohnGalt2341]

I still don't understand why you wait until after the debate unless you are confident Harris will win it outright.

You're thinking is the direct opposite of what I suggested.

You may need to reread my post. I said the best time to bet on TRUMP, will likely be right after the debate. There's a simple reason for this, I think he will lose the debate. In which case, you will almost certainly get a better price on him right after the debate. Make sense?

[DwightShrute]

You may need to reread my post. I said the best time to bet on TRUMP, will likely be right after the debate. There's a simple reason for this, I think he will lose the debate. In which case, you will almost certainly get a better price on him right after the debate. Make sense?

what makes you think that? I am assuming you've heard Kamala speak?

[JohnGalt2341]

what makes you think that? I am assuming you've heard Kamala speak?

Because Trump's not debating Biden this time around. Naturally you think he should be a favorite in the debate? Here you go Dwight, you can bet $200 to win $320. AND, I'll send you 1 betpoint for every dollar you wager.




I must say, a lot of you guys have a completely different approach to Sports betting than I do. If I think have a better than 50% at winning something, and I can get it at +money, I'm ECSTATIC!!

[DwightShrute]

Because Trump's not debating Biden this time around. Naturally you think he should be a favorite in the debate? Here you go Dwight, you can bet $200 to win $320. AND, I'll send you 1 betpoint for every dollar you wager.




I must say, a lot of you guys have a completely different approach to Sports betting than I do. If I think have a better than 50% at winning something, and I can get it at +money, I'm ECSTATIC!!

is this sports betting?


You do know there were people who said Biden beat Trump in their most recent debate?


Trump +160 is easy money if its based on reality. Good luck.

[JohnGalt2341]

is this sports betting?


You do know there were people who said Biden beat Trump in their most recent debate?


Trump +160 is easy money if its based on reality. Good luck.

It doesn't matter if it's Sports betting or not, if your Expected Value is positive, then it's a good bet. For instance, I got Dems for Popular Vote at -105(if you want to see my ticket, let me know). It's now at-500. Would you say this is a good bet?

Here's the criteria for the Debate Winner according to BetOnline:

[DwightShrute]

It doesn't matter if it's Sports betting or not, if your Expected Value is positive, then it's a good bet. For instance, I got Dems for Popular Vote at -105(if you want to see my ticket, let me know). It's now at-500. Would you say this is a good bet?

Here's the criteria for the Debate Winner according to BetOnline:

you mentioned sports betting is all. No biggie.

Not what I am into.

Good luck with the bets.

[JohnGalt2341]

Personally I would have Trump as a small favourite to win in PA as of now. I understand that the public makes the market and Harris being ahead in the current polls puts her ahead in the public's mind. A group-think tends to outperform an individual's analysis so I would be wary of betting my perception against the public.

I have KH as a small favorite to win PA. Here's a nice price for you at BetOnline, even if you have it as a coin flip.

[DwightShrute]

Throwback Thursday

[actiondan]

betonline has jd +250 to win vp debate. thats a bet

[JohnGalt2341]

betonline has jd +250 to win vp debate. thats a bet

I like the value in this as well. Whenever there are 2 "wild cards" going at it(particularly political stuff), I usually think the smart money is on the dog. He may not win, but at +250 I think it's worth a shot. I'm going to keep an eye on this, and likely post updates.

[str]

I like the value in this as well. Whenever there are 2 "wild cards" going at it(particularly political stuff), I usually think the smart money is on the dog. He may not win, but at +250 I think it's worth a shot. I'm going to keep an eye on this, and likely post updates.

This IS interesting. That price is too high IMO. Sizably too high.

With first time starters like these two, either one can screw up anything and have it stick enough to be called the loser in one debate.

For me the only play that I could possibly play would be Vance and 5-2 is a nice number I think.

[JohnGalt2341]

They know it's a loser that's why. Trump will win the popular vote, AND the electoral vote. Most likely the biggest landslide since Reagan. America is tired of failed liberal policies.

Anyone still think Trump is going to win the popular vote? How about better than a 23% chance? If so, you might like this Line below.



AND, you can bet $500 to win $1750. Honestly, I didn't expect this Line to move as much as it has.

[JohnGalt2341]

what makes you think that? I am assuming you've heard Kamala speak?

You can get an even better price on Trump at Bovada. Apparently they haven't heard KH speak either.



If you think Trump has at least a 36% chance of winning this debate, then this is a good bet for you. Any takers? Post your ticket, and I'll send you 1 Betpoint for every dollar you wagered on Trump.

[DwightShrute]

You can get an even better price on Trump at Bovada. Apparently they haven't heard KH speak either.



If you think Trump has at least a 36% chance of winning this debate, then this is a good bet for you. Any takers? Post your ticket, and I'll send you 1 Betpoint for every dollar you wagered on Trump.

don't forget that there were a ton of people who literally looked in the camera and repeatedly said Joe Biden doesn't have dementia of some kind. For years! People actually believed it or at least say they did. They literally were told not to believe their own eyes and ears. And many did. Morning Joe, only a few weeks ago, said this was the best version of Biden ever. Best Biden in 50 years! Yup that is what he said. Kamala went along with the lie as did many here at SBR.

Most of us knew that Trump would destroy Biden in the debate and the election. In hindsight, it was a mistake to debate Biden before the dems had their convention. If he debated after, then they couldn't replace Biden with the DEI puppet they have now. Oh well. Ok so now Kamala has a bump, if you believe the polls. It might even continue until after the convention. It probably will. Good value on Trump now for sure.

Just wait until she does a debate and an interview. It will all be over at that point. She's has no business even applying for the presidency. She's not that bright and has been as bad of a VP as there could be.

[JohnGalt2341]

Here you go boys... whichever Line you think is NOT SHARP, that's the one you should bet on.

At BetOnline:


At Bovada:



Just in case you haven't figured it out... I can GUARANTEE YOU that at least one of these Lines is NOT sharp. Which one do you like?

[JohnGalt2341]

don't forget that there were a ton of people who literally looked you in the camera and repeatedly said Joe Biden doesn't have dementia of some kind. People actually believed it or at least say they did. They literally were told not to believe their own eyes and ears. Morning Joe, only a few weeks ago, said this was the best version of Biden ever. Best Biden in 50 years. Yup that is what he said. Kamala went along with the lie as did many here at SBR.

Most of us knew that Trump would destroy Biden in the debate and the election. In hindsight, it was a mistake to debate Biden before the dems had their convention. If he debated after, then they couldn't replace Biden with the DEI puppet they have now. Oh well. Ok so now Kamala has a bump if you believe the polls. It might even continue until after election. It probably will. Good value on Trump now for sure.

Just wait until she does a debate and an interview. It will all be over at that point. She's has no business even applying for the presidency. She's not that bright and has been as bad of a VP as there could be.

Great argument. Place your bet and post your ticket.

[homie1975]

Harris now the Favorite in Betting Market:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-falls-behind-harris-betting-market-first-time

[blankoblanco]

Just wait until she does a debate and an interview. It will all be over at that point. She's has no business even applying for the presidency. She's not that bright and has been as bad of a VP as there could be.

I really don't get where you're coming from. Everything you said could be doubly applied to Donald Trump, except for the part about being a VP.

Do you honestly think Donald Trump is bright? That is utterly baffling to me. How? Everything he says is so dumb all of the time. It's like many Trump supporters just aren't giving themselves enough credit.

Dwight, I swear to God you are literally at least 5 times smarter than Donald Trump, and I don't exactly believe you're a genius.

[JohnGalt2341]

Kamala hasn't given an interview yet and has no policies on her website. This of course is intentional by those who are pulling her strings and who ousted Biden. She is a puppet and as soon as she does speak and debates Trump, she is finished. Done. So betting on Trrump at plus VIG is a gift. Don't believe me? Look at this ...

I will give you, or ANYONE else 1 Betpoint for every dollar you wagered on Trump. It can even be in individual States. Just show your ticket. How come NONE of you have bet on Trump so far? Could it be that you don't actually believe the nonsense that you spew(Trump: "I weigh 215" Everyone with a brain: "That is hilarious!!!!!").

You guys are just as hilarious as Trump is. This is why you support him to begin with. You see yourselves in Trump, in many, many, many ways. NONE of which are any good.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

John, if I bet Trump, I'll post it in my Weekly play thread. +108 right now, I might pull the trigger.

I do think there are SOME good posts in this thread. My big question: *How will Harris do in debates?
...I stick with my belief that Trump is persuasive in his speech. I'm not sold on how Harris will respond to a tough question.

Will keep monitoring. If I bet it, I will list it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Will also make one basic point. I think this can swing the battle-ground states:

*How do US citizens feel about Inflation at the moment?
...I'd say that MOST Americans are struggling with inflation. Costs for gas and groceries are tough...unless you're a Doctor/Lawyer/CEO.

To the extent that Americans feel that, the party in power has to bear the brunt. Ergo, 50/50 voters may tend toward Republican.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Politics) 1* 2024 usa Presidential Election: DEMOCRATS under 269.5 in Electoral College 2.10: 1 to win 1.10

...I think the Dems are up against it in the latest polls. GA looks to be red.
...If true, Dems are going to have to virtually sweep the five other battle-ground states.

[JohnGalt2341]

(Politics) 1* 2024 usa Presidential Election: DEMOCRATS under 269.5 in Electoral College 2.10: 1 to win 1.10

...I think the Dems are up against it in the latest polls. GA looks to be red.
...If true, Dems are going to have to virtually sweep the five other battle-ground states.

As far as I can tell, the only thing that has changed since my State by State Election thread stats is, now KH is leading slightly in NV(she was a dog before). This should give her 276 if I calculated correctly. What am I missing?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

How does your graph compare to this one?

https://www.270towin.com/

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/president/

[JohnGalt2341]

How does your graph compare to this one?

https://www.270towin.com/

I made this really quickly. I'll take another look at it tomorrow to make sure it is correct. But this is basically what my map looks like.



Harris 276

Trump 262

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, the charts I'm looking at put PA/MI/WI as Un-decided and tilting to Trump. If my info has a polling bias, then that's on me.

[homie1975]

I made this really quickly. I'll take another look at it tomorrow to make sure it is correct. But this is basically what my map looks like.



Harris 276

Trump 262

flip NV red and GA blue and you get 286 for kamala, then you are correct. LOL

[JohnGalt2341]

John, if I bet Trump, I'll post it in my Weekly play thread. +108 right now, I might pull the trigger.

I do think there are SOME good posts in this thread. My big question: *How will Harris do in debates?
...I stick with my belief that Trump is persuasive in his speech. I'm not sold on how Harris will respond to a tough question.

Will keep monitoring. If I bet it, I will list it.

I suspect that there will be only 1 debate. Here's the current Line at BetOnline:



So, the No-Vig percentage is giving KH roughly a 66% chance of winning. This looks about right to me. I suspect that most Trumpers will say he demolished her, regardless of what actually happens. I also suspect that most Dems will think KH won the debate. Personally, I expect KH to win the debate, but if Trump wins(according to BetOnline), it wouldn't surprise me entirely. 1 out of 3 is not that shocking.

[JohnGalt2341]

I suspect that there will be only 1 debate. Here's the current Line at BetOnline:



So, the No-Vig percentage is giving KH roughly a 66% chance of winning. This looks about right to me. I suspect that most Trumpers will say he demolished her, regardless of what actually happens. I also suspect that most Dems will think KH won the debate. Personally, I expect KH to win the debate, but if Trump wins(according to BetOnline), it wouldn't surprise me entirely. 1 out of 3 is not that shocking.

Also, Bovada likes KH for the debate winner slightly more, at 67%.



I must say, it's baffling to me why Trump supporters are not betting on this.

[JohnGalt2341]

OK, the charts I'm looking at put PA/MI/WI as Un-decided and tilting to Trump. If my info has a polling bias, then that's on me.

If you consider those charts reliable, you can get +money at all 3 of those States at BetOnline:



Looks like you can bet up to $500 as well, so... pretty decent IMO.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, John. I'll look at those. It's a bet, so I could always be wrong.

My one comment: *Polls often has a bias that is not adjusted for correctly.
...I'm using those links. If there's a bias in their polling, then the projections could be off a little.