president futures are paying big

[lakerboy]

add WI to that list. typically a blue team stronghold

and you mean trump has a shot at Popular Vote,

and you are wrong.

that will be money tossed away

in CA and NY he will get crushed by many millions of votes against him.

harris wins the Pop vote by at least 3M like hillary 2016

We will see.

[k13]

How much have you bet on Arizona? The line keeps going up. It's +215 now at bet online. It was much lower a few weeks ago. Odds are going down for Trump in States like Minnesota and new Hampshire that are considered reliable or pretty much lock democratic states. Minnesota went to+700 from +1000 last few days. Might not win obviously but those are big moves.


Michigan
Nevada
Pennsylvania

She isn't winning any of the other 4.

Trump has a shot at the electoral college as well. That was +500 months ago and now +200.

Nevada is looking like a win for Trump .
She has a good shot in Wisconsin still.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn are the only states that books have as 50/50IMO the only three swing states Harris has any shot are

[k13]

Georgia at +200 is kind of nuts now.

[lakerboy]

Georgia at +200 is kind of nuts now.

Boots on the ground. They did the work. Lara Trump hate her all you want but she is doing the job. Same with that long hair guy in pa.

[raiders72001]

one of the reasons she went on Fox is because trump will not debate her again so she went into his backyard FOX to get her points across.

7M viewers tuned in and millions of others have viewed the 25 mins on YouTube.

it was a smart move. you will see.

Because of that interview she tanked in the polls and betting markets. Her base loved it because she got mad and yelled. The rest of us saw it as a filibuster trying to get a viral moment. The question asked didn't matter. Kamala had a scripted speech to give. Baier kept interrupting her to get on track but she talked over him and talked about Trump. We all know about Trump and learned nothing new. She missed the opportunity to tell us something new and picked up no new votes. She's unlikable and the more she gets out, the worse she'll do.

[lakerboy]

Because of that interview she tanked in the polls and betting markets. Her base loved it because she got mad and yelled. The rest of us saw it as a filibuster trying to get a viral moment. The question asked didn't matter. Kamala had a scripted speech to give. Baier kept interrupting her to get on track but she talked over him and talked about Trump. We all know about Trump and learned nothing new. She missed the opportunity to tell us something new and picked up no new votes. She's unlikable and the more she gets out, the worse she'll do.

This is the key point. Nothing to drag on Trump. He is who he is. Homie is clueless. He still doesn't understand that they average person is sick of left wing policy. Guy is such an arrogant dickhead.

[homie1975]

Because of that interview she tanked in the polls and betting markets. Her base loved it because she got mad and yelled. The rest of us saw it as a filibuster trying to get a viral moment. The question asked didn't matter. Kamala had a scripted speech to give. Baier kept interrupting her to get on track but she talked over him and talked about Trump. We all know about Trump and learned nothing new. She missed the opportunity to tell us something new and picked up no new votes. She's unlikable and the more she gets out, the worse she'll do.

no the polls moved after Walz and JD Vance had a lovefest

tim allowed JD to look decent and "normal" but we will see in a few weeks if America bought the fakeness.

[homie1975]

Nevada is looking like a win for Trump .
She has a good shot in Wisconsin still.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn are the only states that books have as 50/50IMO the only three swing states Harris has any shot are

if she sweeps the rust belt and holds everything else that is a blue stronghold, she will land at exactly 270.

that includes nebraska's 2nd district omaha which she leads by 9 points as well as the split vote in maine which is all dem except for 1 red district.

[raiders72001]

Polymarket 61/39 Trump

AZ 70/30 Trump
GA 68/32 Trump
NC 64/37 Trump
PA 58/42 Trump
WI 57/43 Trump
MI 56/44 Trump
NV 55/45 Trump


Betfair 60/39 Trump
Pinny -169 Trump

[homie1975]

Polymarket 61/39 Trump

AZ 70/30 Trump
GA 68/32 Trump
NC 64/37 Trump
PA 58/42 Trump
WI 57/43 Trump
MI 56/44 Trump
NV 55/45 Trump


Betfair 60/39 Trump
Pinny -169 Trump

Raider do you honestly think donnie is going to sweep all 7 of those?

very few if anyone thought joe would take AZ and GA in 2020

the ghost of john mccain came back to bite fatphukk trump in his phat ass LOL

seriously though - joe won AZ by 10K votes and GA by 11,800 votes.

recounts showed NO blue fraud in either state and biden's vote count actually went UP !!

5 repubs cheated on their votes in GA and they have been dealt with.

also Elon is spreading fake news again

no Dominion in Philly or Maricopa county

[Optional]

Homie. This is not a thread for you to incessantly argue who should win or which poster is correct.

We are trying to keep this one political thread on topic about betting market insights only.

You've given your opinion, about 6 times. And you said you are not betting this. Take it to one of the saloon politics threads now please.

[homie1975]

Homie. This is not a thread for you to incessantly argue who should win or which poster is correct.

We are trying to keep this one political thread on topic about betting market insights only.

You've given your opinion, about 6 times. And you said you are not betting this. Take it to one of the saloon politics threads now please.

okay Opti how about this?
i will give some info i believe will help bettors.

polymarket takes crypto payments for bets. it is offshore usa not onshore.

some whales made some large bets and now people are getting giddy over the numbers.

internal polling for gop and dems looks different.

btw, the red team put out lots of polls in early nov 2022 showing a red wave and we know what happened.

tread carefully.

there,
i just educated this entire thread on things they mostly did not know.

how many here knew that the gop flooded twitter with polling in nov 2022 which favored them?

they do this to convince blue voters they cannot win and they should stay home.

known tactic.

bet accordingly !!

[raiders72001]

Polymarket is anonymous. Even though people are supposedly banned from the US, all you need is an anonymous wallet such as MetaMask. There are whales on Polymarket that have heavily bet Trump. Everything is transparent since it's on a blockchain. If you click on "holders", you can see positions. All transactions are on polygonscan. There is an order book to buy and sell.

There are whales at sportsbooks, although we can't see their transactions. Syndicates put down a lot of money that move lines. It's really no different. $2.2b has been bet at Polymarket on the presidential election. It looks like whales, those that have bet $1m or more, have bet a little over 1% of that.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1729491896603

[asiagambler]

I said Biden even brain-dead had better chance than Harris. Dems should not have ditched him, now they are stuck with a joke candidate. I think she lost many black male voters

[raiders72001]

Dude, polymarket is absolutely being manipulated. Look at this Peter Thiel and tell me it’s not. Obv they aren’t going to make it obv with a huge whale splashing, it’s going to come from a plethora of accounts or some other way. They are desperate to make it seems like a wave of Trump support and you know they are going to be pointing to this if he loses. Thiel said the only way he can lose is if they cheat. The guy behind polymarket said this when his chances on his own site say far different. And if they aren’t manipulated as you say, then that makes his statement far more asinine. Use some reason.

When dictators like Putin and rich elites like Thiel and Elon have so much riding on getting Trump back in they are gonna pull stuff like this.

Trump was desperately trying to hide classified documents because he loves reading them so much.

Musk suddenly started going nuts using X like crazy to get Trump elected because he is oh so concerned for America when he said stuff like he would never endorse a political candidate.

JD Vance who mentored under Thiel, trashed Trump like crazy, said every bad thing under the sun, even calling him Hitler but boom he just magically changed his mind.

Its not hard to figure out and I’m the furthest thing from a conspiracy theorist.

As I said in the post above, it's on a blockchain so it's transparent. What difference does it make if it's manipulated. It's the same as betting the NFL. There may be buybacks but your final position is what you think will be the winning side.

[raiders72001]

I said Biden even brain-dead had better chance than Harris. Dems should not have ditched him, now they are stuck with a joke candidate. I think she lost many black male voters

She lost men, Hispanics, Blacks, blue collar workers. The dems were already going to get the single issue abortion voters and anti-Trumpers. She gained women voters. Kamala didn't get a single vote. The candidacy was handed to her. She's fake and not liked. I'm not adding to my position but do have both electoral and popular.

[semibluff]

Biden was unelectable. If he hadn't been replaced New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia would have been in play. There are more voters willing to vote Democrat than vote Republican. The problem for the Democrats is their supporters have a more diverse political range, from far left to soft right. Harris has adopted a soft right or centrist platform for this election and left leaning supporters have jumped off the bandwagon. Harris can still win this election but she needs to target those disillusioned left leaning voters to get back behind her. Targetting Trump supporters won't move the needle for her. As things stand she's going to have multiple narrow defeats in the swing states.

[asiagambler]

Biden was unelectable. If he hadn't been replaced New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia would have been in play. There are more voters willing to vote Democrat than vote Republican. The problem for the Democrats is their supporters have a more diverse political range, from far left to soft right. Harris has adopted a soft right or centrist platform for this election and left leaning supporters have jumped off the bandwagon. Harris can still win this election but she needs to target those disillusioned left leaning voters to get back behind her. Targetting Trump supporters won't move the needle for her. As things stand she's going to have multiple narrow defeats in the swing states.

Nope, he would have a much better chance of beating Trump. You're too focused on that one moment but time passes and things change. The impact lessens. Was his debate performance any worse than Harris's interview ?

The campaign of course would adjust and come up with a strategy moving forward, they weren't just going to sit on their hands and with Biden, even brain-dead, you have a far more likable, more proven and more electable candidate than Harris

[raiders72001]

It comes down to likability. Hillary wasn't liked and it's worse for Harris.

Polymarket 62.5/37.5
Betfair 61/39

[d2bets]

Biden was unelectable. If he hadn't been replaced New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia would have been in play. There are more voters willing to vote Democrat than vote Republican. The problem for the Democrats is their supporters have a more diverse political range, from far left to soft right. Harris has adopted a soft right or centrist platform for this election and left leaning supporters have jumped off the bandwagon. Harris can still win this election but she needs to target those disillusioned left leaning voters to get back behind her. Targetting Trump supporters won't move the needle for her. As things stand she's going to have multiple narrow defeats in the swing states.

Interesting perspective. Are you just thinking those left leaning voters will sit out? I don't think she needs to target them with policy or even verbiage, just more in terms of the GOTV efforts.

[Snowball]

Israel is timing this so that they will have results of US election before deciding whether or not to nuke Iran. But they don't know that the election is already a done deal. This is why I think Harris will win. Deep State is going to rig it. Trump would bless the nuking of Iran, and promise trillions to rebuild Israel and commit the full force of US to reshape the Middle East.

Deep State (agencies) and Shadow Gov (COG/UFO) are not going to cede power to Band Israel. They have already spoken via the Pentagon.

They will manage Harris, let her in one some details, and handle the whole transition.

I am sure that Homeland, DOJ, CIA, FBI considers this a National Emergency to rig the election for Harris and that decision was made around the time Biden withdrew.

It's actually the only reason Biden dropped out. He was TOLD it's a fix and Trump can't win.

I have successfully picked every presidential election winner in my adult lifetime. I didn't vote for hardly any of them, but as a handicapper I chose them. Freaking Harris is your next president.

[raiders72001]

Pinny now -177

[JohnGalt2341]

Here you go boys.... here's a couple more that I REALLY like at BetOnline:



I like that +350 the most. It's almost like getting Harris at +350. I do also really like the +245. I recommend putting some money on both of these. I think there is a very good chance that one of them will hit.

[JohnGalt2341]

I only recommend this one for Dwight:



Good luck to you Dwight!

Btw, just in case some of you are unaware of it, I created an Electoral Vote contest here: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...e-contest.html

[semibluff]

Interesting perspective. Are you just thinking those left leaning voters will sit out? I don't think she needs to target them with policy or even verbiage, just more in terms of the GOTV efforts.

We know where the polls were in early 2024 before Biden looked completely awful. We know which section of the population bumped the polls when Harris was given Biden's place on the ticket. That group is the most fickle and least engaged section of voters. It's those same voters who have become disillusioned with Harris sticking to the Biden agenda. Yes, I think many of them now intend to sit out, as they were going to do before Harris was promoted. I don't believe the polls show soft right voters switching from Harris to Trump. There are very few people doing that because both candidates are so polarising.

[semibluff]

Here you go boys.... here's a couple more that I REALLY like at BetOnline:



I like that +350 the most. It's almost like getting Harris at +350. I do also really like the +245. I recommend putting some money on both of these. I think there is a very good chance that one of them will hit.

It's a net -105 on what would likely be Trump winning 2, 3, 4, or 5 of the 7 swing states. Put another way it's -105 on neither candidate sweeping 6 or all 7 states. That bet looks +ve risk/reward to me as well.

[DwightShrute]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NEW: Donald Trump’s odds to win the election jump 2 points on political betting platform Polymarket after he picked up a shift at McDonalds.<br><br>Genius.<br><br>Trump now leads Harris by 24% and is also surging in every swing state on Polymarket. Here is where he stands:<br><br>Arizona:<br><br>Trump:… <a href="https://t.co/4HzYrxQpfE">pic.twitter.com/4HzYrxQpfE</a></p>&mdash; Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) <a href="https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1848376147723292814?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 21, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[johnnyvegas13]

Seeing Harris +140 now

[raiders72001]

Pinny -181

AZ -280
GA -216
NC -196
PA -148
WI -123
MI -115
NV NL

BOL -165
DK Ontario -165

[raiders72001]

Poly 64/36

AZ 74/27
GA 71/30
NC 69/31
PA 63/39
WI 57/42
MI 60/41
NV 57/42

[raiders72001]

Betfair 61.35/38.17

AZ 74/26
NC 68/32
GA 61/38
PA 55/45
MI 53/47
WI 52/48
NV 60/40

[k13]

66% at poly.
Crazy.

[k13]

Harris +150

[johnnyvegas13]

Harris number is gonna keep rising up until the election

[raiders72001]

64/36 Trump

GA 76/25 Trump
AZ 74/27 Trump
NC 71/30 Trump
NV 64/37 Trump
PA 62/40 Trump
MI 59/41 Trump
WI 57/42 Trump

https://polymarket.com/markets/all/swing-states

Pinny -180 Trump
Betfair 62/38

NV early voting has Trump up.