president futures are paying big

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Here's the exact moment when they lost this election...... https://www.npr.org/2020/06/12/87500...s-running-mate

There is some truth to this. Harris is dumb. And I mean DUMB.

[semibluff]

The conventional thinking is that Trump will lose the popular vote( the odds on that have dropped ALOT though). Let's say he can't win the popular vote so why not take no at +125 on the first prop and Harris+135 to win the presidency? Am I missing something?

They're effectively quoting +167 on Trump to win the popular vote, (+300 & +700). That seems extremely high at the moment but the 3 outcomes form a book at 124.5%. I'd be very wary of trying to value bet that market. The break even point would be if Trump was +450 to win the popular vote. I doubt he's significantly worse than that to justify hedging the 81.9%. Personally I see Harris at +135 being a negative value option. I wouldn't bet her at +160 right now. The +125 on Trump winning the election but losing the popular vote is probably break-even value. Just an opinion.

[actiondan]

-200 is on the horizon. crazy

[JohnGalt2341]

John, how long are you on Harris to win the Popular vote? -250 seems cheap to me.

I got -105 at Bovada in the first week of July. I mentioned what a great value this was in post #42, on page 2 of this thread. I won't be wagering any more on the popular vote for this election. I got the price that I wanted. And I feel pretty good about it. This is my wager below:

For those that haven't already bet on it, I probably wouldn't bet on anything over -200. Even though, if I had to guess, I would say Trump has maybe only a 10% chance of winning the popular vote. But I could definitely be wrong.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I got -105 at Bovada in the first week of July. I mentioned what a great value this was in post #42, on page 2 of this thread. I won't be wagering any more on the popular vote for this election. I got the price that I wanted. And I feel pretty good about it. This is my wager below:

For those that haven't already bet on it, I probably wouldn't bet on anything over -200. Even though, if I had to guess, I would say Trump has maybe only a 10% chance of winning the popular vote. But I could definitely be wrong.

Thx, John. I remember your post. Very good info.

Agree with what you're saying. You're holding a very good ticket.

[raiders72001]

I'm all over Trump electoral and popular. He picked up votes from 2016 and 2020 elections from Blacks, Hispanics, Teamsters, Firefighters. Internal polls had the teamsters taking Biden over Trump. When the dems switched to Harris, the vote changed to Trump 58/31 over Harris. Officially they aren't supporting either.

https://teamster.org/2024/09/teamsters-release-presidential-endorsement-polling-data/

Polymarkets 61/39 Trump

https://polymarket.com/markets/all/swing-states

AZ 70/31 Trump
NC 66/36 Trump
GA 65/36 Trump
PA 59/42 Trump
WI 56/44 Trump
MI 56/45 Trump
NV 51/50 Trump

The 3 most accurate pollsters from 2020 all have Trump ahead in the popular vote. Atlas, Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

[dapperandy]

If you read about Peter Thiel, you will know that this polymarket is a bunch of BS and manipulated to make it seem like a surge in support for Trump. Another thing to point to when he loses and claims the rigged nonsense all over again. If you remember how ridiculous the money that came in on Trump election night 2020 was. The plan was already in the work to cry fraud and it doesn’t even take much to manipulate it.

Im big on Harris, added more at +140. Trump has lost way too many moderates because of a wide array of reasons.

Roe v Wade will cost him women votes.

He lost the popular vote by over 7 million last time. No way he has gained more voters than he has lost. Kamala is lucky to be running against one of the only Republican candidates she could beat.

[raiders72001]

If you read about Peter Thiel, you will know that this polymarket is a bunch of BS and manipulated to make it seem like a surge in support for Trump. Another thing to point to when he loses and claims the rigged nonsense all over again. If you remember how ridiculous the money that came in on Trump election night 2020 was. The plan was already in the work to cry fraud and it doesn’t even take much to manipulate it.

Im big on Harris, added more at +140. Trump has lost way too many moderates because of a wide array of reasons.

Roe v Wade will cost him women votes.

He lost the popular vote by over 7 million last time. No way he has gained more voters than he has lost. Kamala is lucky to be running against one of the only Republican candidates she could beat.

One nice thing about Polymarket is that it's crypto so all bets can be tracked on blockchain. There are whales out there such as "marketzero", "fredi9999" and "PricessCaro" that do move the market. It's the same as any other betting market. Pinny is -172. The surge on Trump bets is real. Some states are moving without bets from whales. All the polls, not just bets, have been moving in favor of Trump.

The media would have torn into any candidate that the Republicans put it in. Trump may be the best candidate for the Republicans. Everyone knows Trump and the negative media bombardment isn't going to sway someone's opinion on Trump. The same can't be said if the Republicans had someone else. Mainstream media and social media would ruin someone not as well known. Look what the media did to Kamala Harris. Until being named a Presidential candidate, she was universally disliked. The media turned that around.

[johnnyvegas13]

Harris is winning it’s just a matter of what odds u can get

anyone know what odds were on Biden last election before the odds flipped overnight ???

[raiders72001]

Harris is winning it’s just a matter of what odds u can get

anyone know what odds were on Biden last election before the odds flipped overnight ???

What makes me really believe in Trump are the teamsters. They voted for Biden over Trump this year. When Harris came in the teamsters backed Trump by almost 2-1.

The Teamsters’ polling data shows members backed Biden 44.3 percent to Trump’s 36.3 percent.
Following the Republican National Convention and Biden’s campaign exit, the Teamsters commissioned a national electronic poll of its 1.3 million members, overseen by an independent third party. During a voting window from July 24-Sept. 15, rank-and-file Teamsters voted 59.6 percent for the union to endorse Trump, compared to 34 percent for Harris.

[JohnGalt2341]

Opti/SBR... you know what would be AWESOME? If SBR had some sort of Election type contest. Perhaps a gift card for a perfect Electoral map? Just a suggestion...

[Optional]

Opti/SBR... you know what would be AWESOME? If SBR had some sort of Election type contest. Perhaps a gift card for a perfect Electoral map? Just a suggestion...

Andy was asked about this in another thread and replied that there would be one


If you would like to come up with your own one for more expert types wanting to call specific states or stuff like that, let me know details and I can ask if SBR will throw in a prize for it?

[k13]

No way trump wins popular vote.
But if polymarket is controlled by crypto whales why is every book in sync too?

[k13]

This is all great raiders but you can't trust the election process.

[raiders72001]

This is all great raiders but you can't trust the election process.

That's my worry.

[homie1975]

AZ has 11 electoral votes
NV has 6 votes

Both states have Abortion on the ballot.

female voters were activated in the 2022 Mids.

watch those two swing states as potential bellwether states.

if turnout is big in those two states, it could spell doom for Donnie as it will mean
states all over the country who are still ticked off royally about the overturn of Roe in Summer 2022
which prevented the Red Wave in the Nov 2022 mids.

during the 2022 mids, inflation was at a 40year high and the stock market was in the tank as was crypto.
i remember it well because i was lowering my cost basis on numerous positions in March, June, Sept and
posted as such in the STOCK THREAD here at Sbr.

that said, The Red Wave was all but certain but was blocked mainly by female voters.

perhaps they are the silent ones this time and not the silent Trump voters of 16 and 20.

Look out.

do not say i did not warn you.

heads you win, tails it's rigged.

i already know your story.

[JohnGalt2341]

Andy was asked about this in another thread and replied that there would be one


If you would like to come up with your own one for more expert types wanting to call specific states or stuff like that, let me know details and I can ask if SBR will throw in a prize for it?

I like the idea of a perfect map. But I'd be more than happy with anything, really. I'm a visual guy, so I like the interactive type maps. I'd like to see what everyone's map looks like. There are several decent interactive maps out there. The one that I like and am using is https://www.realclearpolling.com/map...ctoral-college

It starts off with Trump 312 Harris 226. And it looks like this:
From here, it's real easy to change the States you want to change. You just need to click on the States. For those that aren't SBR Image savvy, you could list all the States with the number of delegates, and they could write in either R or B next to it. A simple cut and paste should work well enough. This is the list:

Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 11
Arkansas - 6
California - 54
Colorado - 10
Connecticut - 7
Delaware - 3
Florida - 30
Georgia - 16
Hawaii - 4
Idaho - 4
Illinois - 19
Indiana - 11
Iowa - 6
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 8
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 11
Michigan - 15
Minnesota - 10
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 10
Montana - 4
Nebraska - 5
Nevada - 6
New Hampshire - 4
New Jersey - 14
New Mexico - 5
New York - 28
North Carolina - 16
North Dakota - 3
Ohio - 17
Oklahoma - 7
Oregon - 8
Pennsylvania - 19
Rhode Island - 4
South Carolina - 9
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 40
Utah - 6
Vermont - 3
Virginia - 13
Washington - 12
Washington, D.C. - 3
West Virginia - 4
Wisconsin - 10
Wyoming - 3

Of course the other option is to do the swing states only. I'm just afraid too many people would have the exact same picks. And I'm hoping at least a few will pick some big upsets. If it were up to me, the way that I would do it is, once a map is created, it cannot be copied by another poster. So, if someone should happen to choose the map in the photo above, nobody else can choose that exact combination. This way, there is incentive to get your map in early. These are just a few ideas, but I'm game for just about anything really.

[Optional]

I'm not going to try and tell Andy how to set up his contest.

But if you want to organize your own contest, I'll try to organize prize money for it for you.

[JohnGalt2341]

I'm not going to try and tell Andy how to set up his contest.

But if you want to organize your own contest, I'll try to organize prize money for it for you.

Okay sounds good! Should I start a new thread for it then?

[raiders72001]

AZ has 11 electoral votes
NV has 6 votes

Both states have Abortion on the ballot.

female voters were activated in the 2022 Mids.

watch those two swing states as potential bellwether states.

if turnout is big in those two states, it could spell doom for Donnie as it will mean
states all over the country who are still ticked off royally about the overturn of Roe in Summer 2022
which prevented the Red Wave in the Nov 2022 mids.

during the 2022 mids, inflation was at a 40year high and the stock market was in the tank as was crypto.
i remember it well because i was lowering my cost basis on numerous positions in March, June, Sept and
posted as such in the STOCK THREAD here at Sbr.

that said, The Red Wave was all but certain but was blocked mainly by female voters.

perhaps they are the silent ones this time and not the silent Trump voters of 16 and 20.

Look out.

do not say i did not warn you.

heads you win, tails it's rigged.

i already know your story.

Dobbs was handed down June of 2022. Women were fired up on abortion. In Arizona, immigration and economy is ahead of abortion right now. The only reason Harris went on Fox is that she knew she was down. That was a huge risk where she was hoping for a viral moment. It didn't happen. The original plan was to use the Biden 2020 playbook. Lay low so as to not make mistakes. Her internal polling must have said she was down and she did a 180. She's out there every day.

[k13]

Arizona is 75% trump now.

[homie1975]

Dobbs was handed down June of 2022. Women were fired up on abortion. In Arizona, immigration and economy is ahead of abortion right now. The only reason Harris went on Fox is that she knew she was down. That was a huge risk where she was hoping for a viral moment. It didn't happen. The original plan was to use the Biden 2020 playbook. Lay low so as to not make mistakes. Her internal polling must have said she was down and she did a 180. She's out there every day.

one of the reasons she went on Fox is because trump will not debate her again so she went into his backyard FOX to get her points across.

7M viewers tuned in and millions of others have viewed the 25 mins on YouTube.

it was a smart move. you will see.

[homie1975]

Arizona is 75% trump now.

stop quoting betting markets which destroy bettors every day.

a few overseas whales (probably putin and kim jong un and viktor orban) placed huge multimillion dollar bets which moved the line.

check 2016 hillary odds if you'd like to see a huge betting favorite get beaten.

she was a way bigger fave than trump is right now.

[JohnGalt2341]

Arizona is 75% trump now.

Where at? Highest I am seeing is at Pinny 70.52%.

[homie1975]

Where at? Highest I am seeing is at Pinny 70.52%.

and these numbers do not matter anyway

aggregate polling across dozens and dozens of polls have it trump by 2% in arizona and that is within the 3% MOE

these odds are just whales betting.

whales lose at betting all the time. the vast majority of them.

they were wrong in Nov 2022.

they flooded the internet with their own polling then promptly lost the opp to flip the Senate red and take a huge majority in the House.

that is why the GOP has mike johnson speaker not kevin mccarthy.

[RudyRuetigger]

If it were up to me, the way that I would do it is, once a map is created, it cannot be copied by another poster. So, if someone should happen to choose the map in the photo above, nobody else can choose that exact combination.

you expect everyone to look at every single map posted before them?

[homie1975]

you expect everyone to look at every single map posted before them?

rudy
post all of your losing wagers from the midterms 2022

you kept arguing with me insisting on your Red Wave

you got epically smashed

have you recovered at all?

[JohnGalt2341]

you expect everyone to look at every single map posted before them?

No, after you create your map, if it's not already on the screenshot, I will have you write in your numbers, either above or below the map. So if your numbers are different than everyone elses, then you already know that you don't have the same map. For instance, lets say I have KH 272 and Trump 266. If your numbers are different, then you KNOW our maps are not the same. However, if your numbers are the same, THEN you will have to make sure we don't have the same map. So, when you create your map, and get your totals, all you have to do is CTRL F and search for one of your numbers in the thread. If it doesn't come up, then you KNOW your map is different and you are good to go. The only time you will have to check is if your numbers match someone elses, because you may have the same map(probably), but maybe not. Make sense? It's actually a lot simplier than it sounds. You just have to hit CTRL F in the thread before you submit your map to check.

Good question though. Let me know if you have any more questions.

[RudyRuetigger]

rudy
post all of your losing wagers from the midterms 2022

you kept arguing with me insisting on your Red Wave

you got epically smashed

have you recovered at all?

my bets from 2022?

ive been banned here since 2021

I know democrats can vote when they are dead, but i dont post here when banned

[RudyRuetigger]

No, after you create your map, if it's not already on the screenshot, I will have you write in your numbers, either above or below the map. So if your numbers are different than everyone elses, then you already know that you don't have the same map. For instance, lets say I have KH 272 and Trump 266. If your numbers are different, then you KNOW our maps are not the same. However, if your numbers are the same, THEN you will have to make sure we don't have the same map. So, when you create your map, and get your totals, all you have to do is CTRL F and search for one of your numbers in the thread. If it doesn't come up, then you KNOW your map is different and you are good to go. The only time you will have to check is if your numbers match someone elses, because you may have the same map(probably), but maybe not. Make sense? It's actually a lot simplier than it sounds. You just have to hit CTRL F in the thread before you submit your map to check.

Good question though. Let me know if you have any more questions.

or you could just hide all maps from public view

[lakerboy]

and these numbers do not matter anyway

aggregate polling across dozens and dozens of polls have it trump by 2% in arizona and that is within the 3% MOE

these odds are just whales betting.

whales lose at betting all the time. the vast majority of them.

they were wrong in Nov 2022.

they flooded the internet with their own polling then promptly lost the opp to flip the Senate red and take a huge majority in the House.

that is why the GOP has mike johnson speaker not kevin mccarthy.

How much have you bet on Arizona? The line keeps going up. It's +215 now at bet online. It was much lower a few weeks ago. Odds are going down for Trump in States like Minnesota and new Hampshire that are considered reliable or pretty much lock democratic states. Minnesota went to+700 from +1000 last few days. Might not win obviously but those are big moves.

IMO the only three swing states Harris has any shot are

Michigan
Nevada
Pennsylvania

She isn't winning any of the other 4.

Trump has a shot at the electoral college as well. That was +500 months ago and now +200.

[homie1975]

How much have you bet on Arizona? The line keeps going up. It's +215 now at bet online. It was much lower a few weeks ago. Odds are going down for Trump in States like Minnesota and new Hampshire that are considered reliable or pretty much lock democratic states. Minnesota went to+700 from +1000 last few days. Might not win obviously but those are big moves.

IMO the only three swing states Harris has any shot are

Michigan
Nevada
Pennsylvania

She isn't winning any of the other 4.

Trump has a shot at the electoral college as well. That was +500 months ago and now +200.

add WI to that list. typically a blue team stronghold

and you mean trump has a shot at Popular Vote,

and you are wrong.

that will be money tossed away

in CA and NY he will get crushed by many millions of votes against him.

harris wins the Pop vote by at least 3M like hillary 2016

[homie1975]

How much have you bet on Arizona? The line keeps going up. It's +215 now at bet online. It was much lower a few weeks ago. Odds are going down for Trump in States like Minnesota and new Hampshire that are considered reliable or pretty much lock democratic states. Minnesota went to+700 from +1000 last few days. Might not win obviously but those are big moves.

IMO the only three swing states Harris has any shot are

Michigan
Nevada
Pennsylvania

She isn't winning any of the other 4.

Trump has a shot at the electoral college as well. That was +500 months ago and now +200.

i am investor in stocks, bitcoin and real estate.

i do not bet on elections which such biased, unobjective info going on.

[dapperandy]

One nice thing about Polymarket is that it's crypto so all bets can be tracked on blockchain. There are whales out there such as "marketzero", "fredi9999" and "PricessCaro" that do move the market. It's the same as any other betting market. Pinny is -172. The surge on Trump bets is real. Some states are moving without bets from whales. All the polls, not just bets, have been moving in favor of Trump.

The media would have torn into any candidate that the Republicans put it in. Trump may be the best candidate for the Republicans. Everyone knows Trump and the negative media bombardment isn't going to sway someone's opinion on Trump. The same can't be said if the Republicans had someone else. Mainstream media and social media would ruin someone not as well known. Look what the media did to Kamala Harris. Until being named a Presidential candidate, she was universally disliked. The media turned that around.

Dude, polymarket is absolutely being manipulated. Look at this Peter Thiel and tell me it’s not. Obv they aren’t going to make it obv with a huge whale splashing, it’s going to come from a plethora of accounts or some other way. They are desperate to make it seems like a wave of Trump support and you know they are going to be pointing to this if he loses. Thiel said the only way he can lose is if they cheat. The guy behind polymarket said this when his chances on his own site say far different. And if they aren’t manipulated as you say, then that makes his statement far more asinine. Use some reason.

When dictators like Putin and rich elites like Thiel and Elon have so much riding on getting Trump back in they are gonna pull stuff like this.

Trump was desperately trying to hide classified documents because he loves reading them so much.

Musk suddenly started going nuts using X like crazy to get Trump elected because he is oh so concerned for America when he said stuff like he would never endorse a political candidate.

JD Vance who mentored under Thiel, trashed Trump like crazy, said every bad thing under the sun, even calling him Hitler but boom he just magically changed his mind.

Its not hard to figure out and I’m the furthest thing from a conspiracy theorist.

[dapperandy]

Trump to win Ohio by under 10.5% -120 a great bet imo.