2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

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  • thomorino
    Restricted User
    • 06-01-17
    • 45842

    #2661
    Republican voters are already outnumbering democratic voters in total including early voting. That trend is only suppose to widen as more republicans turnout today.
    Comment
    • Auto Donk
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 09-03-13
      • 43558

      #2662
      Comment
      • vitterd
        Restricted User
        • 09-14-17
        • 58460

        #2663
        Auto doosh and his gay dog are so nervous today. Don’t worry, this just adds to the list of shit you get wrong!
        Comment
        • Judge Crater
          SBR MVP
          • 10-05-20
          • 2024

          #2664
          I always take those stats with a grain of salt. So few events, only 15 elections since 1960. Most were never in doubt.


          Originally posted by navyblue81
          It would be so weird if Trump won Florida but lost the White House. A republican has not won Florida and lost an election since 1960 in a two-way race (Bush I being the exception in a 3-way race). But it's 2020. Anything goes, and the way Arizona has gone more blue, that could be the state that I'd be most worried about for Trump that could cost him. Trump could pull an upset in Nevada and offset Arizona some. Latest poll had Trump ahead in NV.
          Comment
          • Auto Donk
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 09-03-13
            • 43558

            #2665
            Comment
            • thomorino
              Restricted User
              • 06-01-17
              • 45842

              #2666
              Republicans are outnumbering democrats even with early voting in Florida, and that trend is only suppose to increase.
              Comment
              • RudyRuetigger
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 08-24-10
                • 65085

                #2667
                Originally posted by thomorino
                Republican voters are already outnumbering democratic voters in total including early voting. That trend is only suppose to widen as more republicans turnout today.
                dems take early lead with mail in

                reps come back during the day


                dems come back slightly at 5-7pm plus those not reporting


                really need a bigger lead for trump
                Comment
                • vitterd
                  Restricted User
                  • 09-14-17
                  • 58460

                  #2668
                  Originally posted by thomorino
                  Republican voters are already outnumbering democratic voters in total including early voting. That trend is only suppose to widen as more republicans turnout today.
                  You and auto doosh aren’t gonna understand what happens....even while Biden is being sworn in. Get off Twitter and enjoy the day.....it’s already decided.
                  Comment
                  • thomorino
                    Restricted User
                    • 06-01-17
                    • 45842

                    #2669
                    Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                    dems take early lead with mail in

                    reps come back during the day


                    dems come back slightly at 5-7pm plus those not reporting


                    really need a bigger lead for trump
                    Democrats are far more scared of covid than republicans, republican turnout should be much higher than democratic turnout all day, in many states most democrats already voted.
                    Comment
                    • Auto Donk
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 09-03-13
                      • 43558

                      #2670
                      Comment
                      • King Mayan
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 09-22-10
                        • 21326

                        #2671
                        Democrats working right now..

                        All the republicans on disability voting right now.
                        Comment
                        • Judge Crater
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-05-20
                          • 2024

                          #2672
                          Rudy,

                          Is that "Live" or is there another link for "Live"?

                          Thx


                          Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                          someone is updating florida voters here (obviously click the combined totals tab)..not the VOTE count, the VOTERS count


                          https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=438433002
                          Comment
                          • navyblue81
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-29-13
                            • 4143

                            #2673
                            Originally posted by Judge Crater
                            I always take those stats with a grain of salt. So few events, only 15 elections since 1960. Most were never in doubt.
                            I don't know about that. Bush, Jr. wouldn't have won without Florida in 2000 and 2004. The bigger reason, though, is a lot of the nation reflects Florida voters. They have voters there from Michigan, Pa., Ohio, Wisconsin, and a lot of blue wall states, so their electorate reflects most of the rest of the country. It doesn't account for Arizona, which is why I said that Arizona could be the state that muffles that whole thing up.
                            Comment
                            • RudyRuetigger
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 08-24-10
                              • 65085

                              #2674
                              Originally posted by Judge Crater
                              Rudy,

                              Is that "Live" or is there another link for "Live"?

                              Thx
                              update on twitter is best


                              if trump goes to -230 i think you have to buy back on biden given the large number of NPAs
                              Comment
                              • Judge Crater
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-05-20
                                • 2024

                                #2675
                                Link?


                                Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                update on twitter is best


                                if trump goes to -230 i think you have to buy back on biden given the large number of NPAs
                                Comment
                                • RudyRuetigger
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 08-24-10
                                  • 65085

                                  #2676
                                  Florida;

                                  Trump 50% (+3)
                                  Biden 47%

                                  Pennsylvania:

                                  Trump 49% (+2)
                                  Biden 47%

                                  Ohio:

                                  Trump 49% (+2)
                                  Biden 47%

                                  Georgia:

                                  Trump 49% (+2)
                                  Biden 47%

                                  North Carolina:

                                  Trump 49% (+2)
                                  Biden 47%

                                  Michigan:

                                  Trump 48%
                                  Biden 48%



                                  Wick Poll(LV, 10/24-25)
                                  Comment
                                  • RudyRuetigger
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 08-24-10
                                    • 65085

                                    #2677
                                    Originally posted by Judge Crater
                                    Link?
                                    I just search and find people who have the numbers


                                    If I win on these states, im getting into the political game and golf betting only
                                    Comment
                                    • Memento
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-28-15
                                      • 1192

                                      #2678
                                      GOP up near 36K in Florida now
                                      Comment
                                      • Judge Crater
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 10-05-20
                                        • 2024

                                        #2679
                                        Betfair Florida
                                        Trump -133
                                        Biden +130


                                        Up 36K what, rep vs dem voted?
                                        I have seen Biden is polled at 55-41 independents in Florida. Not sure what percentage independents are in Florida.


                                        Originally posted by Memento
                                        GOP up near 36K in Florida now
                                        Last edited by Judge Crater; 11-03-20, 11:45 AM.
                                        Comment
                                        • RudyRuetigger
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 08-24-10
                                          • 65085

                                          #2680
                                          Originally posted by Memento
                                          GOP up near 36K in Florida now
                                          Theyre up 75k



                                          Didnt know i needed to update so much
                                          Comment
                                          • navyblue81
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-29-13
                                            • 4143

                                            #2681
                                            Looking at where the money is going...

                                            Heavy money going on Trump Fla. Now -200 on Bovada.

                                            Money going on Trump win AZ after reported that republicans are dominating Dems in EV there.

                                            Ohio now over -300 for Trump based on EV numbers that show huge Republican edge.

                                            Some $$$ going on Biden to win NC. He’s pulled to +110 there.
                                            Comment
                                            • RudyRuetigger
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 08-24-10
                                              • 65085

                                              #2682
                                              republican voters are now UP 106k in florida after starting the day down 113k


                                              almost 220k swing


                                              REMEMBER: these are voter registration, not votes
                                              Comment
                                              • Judge Crater
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-05-20
                                                • 2024

                                                #2683
                                                Betfair
                                                Florida now
                                                Trump -154
                                                Biden +150

                                                Election
                                                Biden -222
                                                Trump +215
                                                Last edited by Judge Crater; 11-03-20, 12:49 PM.
                                                Comment
                                                • d2bets
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 08-10-05
                                                  • 39993

                                                  #2684
                                                  Based on current Pinnacle odds, Biden has a better chance to win Georgia than Florida.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • KVB
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 05-29-14
                                                    • 74817

                                                    #2685
                                                    LMAO at you line watchers today, I'm not sure you understand what the line is actually used for.

                                                    Comment
                                                    • RudyRuetigger
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 08-24-10
                                                      • 65085

                                                      #2686
                                                      Originally posted by d2bets
                                                      Based on current Pinnacle odds, Biden has a better chance to win Georgia than Florida.
                                                      i said that a week or two ago
                                                      Comment
                                                      • RudyRuetigger
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 08-24-10
                                                        • 65085

                                                        #2687
                                                        Originally posted by KVB
                                                        LMAO at you line watchers today, I'm not sure you understand what the line is actually used for.

                                                        there are no turnovers in politics like football

                                                        Comment
                                                        • KVB
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 05-29-14
                                                          • 74817

                                                          #2688
                                                          Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                                          there are no turnovers in politics like football

                                                          Not true.

                                                          2016 had basically a huge game changing turnover and it happened late in the game.

                                                          When the markets flip, and those of us in the syndicates make a candidate -5000 across the board, then you'll have your answer.

                                                          Until then, you really are spinning your wheels.

                                                          I'm also worried there won't even be a result tonight, or tomorrow...lol...then what?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • RudyRuetigger
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 08-24-10
                                                            • 65085

                                                            #2689
                                                            Originally posted by KVB
                                                            Not true.

                                                            2016 had basically a huge game changing turnover and it happened late in the game.

                                                            When the markets flip, and those of us in the syndicates make a candidate -5000 across the board, then you'll have your answer.

                                                            Until then, you really are spinning your wheels.

                                                            I'm also worried there won't even be a result tonight, or tomorrow...lol...then what?
                                                            wow


                                                            i was just liking you and then you post this garbage?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • KVB
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 05-29-14
                                                              • 74817

                                                              #2690
                                                              While the handle on this event is unprecidented, there are still far too many "sure of themselves" market efficient theorists playing political handicapper out there.

                                                              Probably why the handle is so big.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • homie1975
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 12-24-13
                                                                • 15453

                                                                #2691
                                                                Originally posted by KVB
                                                                Not true.

                                                                2016 had basically a huge game changing turnover and it happened late in the game.

                                                                When the markets flip, and those of us in the syndicates make a candidate -5000 across the board, then you'll have your answer.

                                                                Until then, you really are spinning your wheels.

                                                                I'm also worried there won't even be a result tonight, or tomorrow...lol...then what?
                                                                KVBer usually the sharpest dude in the room so i would not really disagree with him here unless empirical evidence or facts, do not do it on conjecture alone
                                                                Comment
                                                                • KVB
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 05-29-14
                                                                  • 74817

                                                                  #2692
                                                                  Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                                                  wow


                                                                  i was just liking you and then you post this garbage?
                                                                  I'm just slapping the truth of these markets down, you can do whatever you want.

                                                                  Enjoy your event.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • RudyRuetigger
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 08-24-10
                                                                    • 65085

                                                                    #2693
                                                                    Originally posted by homie1975
                                                                    KVBer usually the sharpest dude in the room so i would not really disagree with him here unless empirical evidence or facts, do not do it on conjecture alone
                                                                    kvb is talking out of his ass


                                                                    what syndicate is he in?


                                                                    just a dumb post
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • RudyRuetigger
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 08-24-10
                                                                      • 65085

                                                                      #2694
                                                                      Originally posted by KVB
                                                                      I'm just slapping the truth of these markets down, you can do whatever you want.

                                                                      Enjoy your event.
                                                                      you havent posted 1 useful thing regarding the political market


                                                                      stop being a dipshit
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • KVB
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 05-29-14
                                                                        • 74817

                                                                        #2695
                                                                        Originally posted by homie1975
                                                                        KVBer usually the sharpest dude in the room so i would not really disagree with him here unless empirical evidence or facts, do not do it on conjecture alone
                                                                        I'm just saying that the "efficiency" of these markets, ridiculously high vig aside, is not set in stone, and it never was, because of what the market information is based upon.

                                                                        It will never be efficient, mostly because of the propaganda laden media, which I don't see changing anytime soon.

                                                                        It would do a lot people good to remember that,and to also remember why the line exists to begin with. I'm not going to argue any of this or why the line is there, it's like talking to those guys that see final score end on the line, or close to it, and they call the line "sharp" because of it. It's a fundamental issue.
                                                                        Comment
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