This is going to sound crazy, but...

**a4u2fear** · 12-03-14, 04:48 PM

Not a good night, but that will happen. I'm not giving out 1 play hoping we win every one. The system is playing lots of games.

Teams YTD
13-6 +4.98

Totals had a decent night.

Totals YTD
12-13 -2.18u

**a4u2fear** · 12-03-14, 04:51 PM

Plays

MIN -138
CHI -147

EDM u5.5 -136
ANH u5.5 -115

Taking the two lesser favs tonight of the four.

**SlickRick1382** · 12-03-14, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

Taking the two lesser favs tonight of the four.

Does that mean that the system had put out more plays and you only choose the two that were least favorite?

**a4u2fear** · 12-03-14, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

Does that mean that the system had put out more plays and you only choose the two that were least favorite?

Nah, just trying to show it doesn't always pick the heavy favs

**bihon** · 12-03-14, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

Nah, just trying to show it doesn't always pick the heavy favs

If I understood you correctly, your system originally picked each and every game in the testing period.

In post #27 you stated that you will post only Home Fav ML and Away Dog ML (if picked by the system).
However it is not the case. Have you changed the picking criteria and if so, have you tested it?

**a4u2fear** · 12-03-14, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by bihon

If I understood you correctly, your system originally picked each and every game in the testing period.

In post #27 you stated that you will post only Home Fav ML and Away Dog ML (if picked by the system).
However it is not the case. Have you changed the picking criteria and if so, have you tested it?

You're right I did say that, however I am not doing that. It's not changing results, just not limiting myself as I was pondering doing to save chalk and number of plays.

i am showing all plays and giving anyone the option to view thread page 1 and decide to narrow it down

**a4u2fear** · 12-04-14, 08:33 AM

Teams
15-6 +6.98u

Totals
13-14 -2.33u

**TheKLB** · 12-04-14, 11:57 AM

Good stuff. I think the totals is on its way into the black. Should be + in no time!

**a4u2fear** · 12-04-14, 04:51 PM

PIT -135
NYI -125
TB -320
DET -180
TOR -181

Lots of big faves tonight

CAR u5.5 -132
OTT o5.5 +115
TB u5.5 -139
DET o5.5 -130
TOR o5.5 +122
NAS u5 -116
CAL u5.5 -105
ARZ o5 +100
SJ u5 -104

**matt711** · 12-04-14, 05:51 PM

BOL

**a4u2fear** · 12-04-14, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by matt711

BOL

Thanks.

Currently trying to find a solution to lower the chalk. Reviewing puck lines results and regulation lines for system picks of -175 and higher.

**keel44** · 12-05-14, 12:54 AM

How about a -1 make-shift line to lower the juice?

**a4u2fear** · 12-05-14, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by keel44

How about a -1 make-shift line to lower the juice?

Not that easy.

**a4u2fear** · 12-05-14, 04:31 PM

Teams
18-8 +6.82u

Totals
17-19 -3.61u

We'll get there.

**a4u2fear** · 12-05-14, 04:32 PM

CHI -185

CHI u5 +121
WPG u5.5 -125

**keel44** · 12-05-14, 06:09 PM

I got CHI -1 (-122)

-200 ml
+145 pl

**a4u2fear** · 12-06-14, 07:42 AM

Teams

19-8 +7.82u

Totals

17-21 -5.86u

**a4u2fear** · 12-06-14, 07:44 AM

DAL -125
TOR +105
CHI +110

PIT o5.5 +120
NYI u5.5 -118
LA u5 +115
FLA u5 -111
DAL u5.5 -102
DET o5 -140
NJ u5 +110
CAL u5.5 -120

**Slanina** · 12-06-14, 03:33 PM

Your totals don't want to cooperate. Maybe Pitt can get an empty netter for you here.

**a4u2fear** · 12-06-14, 03:40 PM

yea it's disappointing, but I'm not worried. The teams have been validated and are doing very well. If that succeeds it will be 5-6 straight years, and will be a gold mine for the future.

Over the next week or so I can make sure the totals are legit, could just be a rough patch. Still got 6 or so games to bail me out tonight ha.

**Slanina** · 12-06-14, 09:56 PM

Just checked the finals. Nice work on the teams again. Whatever your system is it seems to be having another good year. May have to start tailing teams at this pace. Good work, sir.

**a4u2fear** · 12-06-14, 10:01 PM

Teams

22-8 +10.97u

**a4u2fear** · 12-06-14, 10:02 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

Just checked the finals. Nice work on the teams again. Whatever your system is it seems to be having another good year. May have to start tailing teams at this pace. Good work, sir.

**MickeyMan** · 12-06-14, 10:04 PM

Good stuff man

**bihon** · 12-07-14, 03:46 AM

It is a bit strange that the totals perform so badly up to now as your numbers show that totals have 15% yield compared to 7% of ML.
Are you sure your O/U testing was correct?

**buddha** · 12-07-14, 04:34 AM

This is going to sound crazy but you're 10th in Beat The Prick right now SUN7DEC2014 prior to Week 14 games 4.21 units down with 4 weeks to go. 10th pays $600 and 1st pays $5000 so I think you should try for 1st.

**a4u2fear** · 12-07-14, 09:33 AM

3 ties last night.

Totals

20-23-3 -4.89u

**a4u2fear** · 12-07-14, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by bihon

It is a bit strange that the totals perform so badly up to now as your numbers show that totals have 15% yield compared to 7% of ML.
Are you sure your O/U testing was correct?

I'm not sure, it needs to be looked at. It was based on the same stats as the money lines, so I know the calculations are correct, but the formulas used to determine W/L could be faulty, I haven't had time to review.

**a4u2fear** · 12-07-14, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by buddha

This is going to sound crazy but you're 10th in Beat The Prick right now SUN7DEC2014 prior to Week 14 games 4.21 units down with 4 weeks to go. 10th pays $600 and 1st pays $5000 so I think you should try for 1st.

Crazy? Ha, no. We both know I'm a sharp! Just kidding. After all my handicapper think tank systems etc., eventually one would hit.

I'm having trouble deciding my 5 picks this week. The prick took two that I liked. I need to see how the money flows today before locking them in.

**a4u2fear** · 12-07-14, 09:40 AM

Oddly enough, no team plays today.

CAR u5 +130
OTT u5.5 -130
EDM u5.5 -112

**Russian Rocket** · 12-07-14, 09:42 AM

good work in this thread a4u!

**dr.sauce** · 12-07-14, 12:21 PM

great work! Just started tailing teams last week. Keep it rolling. I was wondering what factors go into your totals. I don't have a system and rarely play totals unless I see a team that gives up huge penalty minutes against a good power play team. These games seem to be the ones that easily hit an OVER total early. Or maybe I'm biased because I tend to bet the Pens and the over against undisciplined teams.

**buddha** · 12-07-14, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

Crazy? Ha, no. We both know I'm a sharp! Just kidding. After all my handicapper think tank systems etc., eventually one would hit.

I'm having trouble deciding my 5 picks this week. The prick took two that I liked. I need to see how the money flows today before locking them in.

$5000 dollars would cover diapers and maybe even leave you about $2.38 left for a baby toy, rattle or something but I'd prefer something artistic like a Yard Sale Fisher-Price plasticmess that when baby presses buttons musical sounds come out. Fezzik does have a successful Line Move Predictor thread every week that is YTD 19-3 on line move forecasts, like, accurately gauging linemoves. I Stress that these are not game predictions but rather prognostications of line movement potential value being that, yes, I'd definitely agree that Sunday Shopping is best "on the whole" (if for no other reason than late player scratches or vice versa) I'd encourage investigation of what lines you might expect to move against you so as to maybe get on those earlier, just food for thought. Allz I wanna do is contribute to molding that baby into the next John Lennon or Mahalia Jackson cuz this world is gonna need another.

get 'em babay

**buddha** · 12-07-14, 01:36 PM

Woops, all that and I forgot to include link to Fezzik's Line predictions lol, naturally this link won't remain each week you'll need to locate his thread, looks like he posts Friday Morning which I know could be better but what the hell: http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/t/1110828.aspx

**Vitalic05** · 12-07-14, 04:45 PM

Sides have been HOT. I've tailed from the start!