BOL, LTA, hope the Chargers shut em out.
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BiffTFinancialSBR Posting Legend
- 01-29-09
- 22670
#1821Comment -
TrivialSBR MVP
- 11-22-09
- 1328
#1822BOL everyone. I may watch a bit of the game, but I'm not touching it. I'm staying away of this game, and may even stay away period until playoffs like I keep saying I will.
If I had to pick, I'd go over on this game, and the JAGS, but I'm not brave enough to pull the trigger.
Good luck to all.
I'm trying to come up with a cohesive model for playoff football which is far more accurate for playoffs than regular season.
The BS plays that end up hurting unders and overs don't happen nearly as often in playoffs.
Comment -
SlickRick1382SBR MVP
- 10-15-11
- 3838
#1823Wasn't betting on it but since LTA's going Chargers -3 then I'm tailing just to bring some of my good karma and pull out the W !!!!Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1824I feel your pain bro, had the total teased down to 49. Thankfully I was on the Pitt under with you
(didn't look good at the half) and the Wong's went 3 for 3 that I mentioned earlier in the week to ease the pain. If I were the owner of the Lions, Schwartz would be in my office today explaining why his team is incapable of playing like professionals. The idiocy/immaturity of that team is inexcusable.
What are your thoughts on tonight's game? San Diego has screwed me a few times already this year and I just know if I bet against them they will wake up and put a hurting on the Jags.
Nice call on the Wong's...I love them but I can't just bring myself to play them blindly like you. Have you kept a record of all Wong eligible teasers that you have played this year? If so, I would be interested in hearing the results via PM or in here.
Hope you rode the Chargers too. Good luckComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1826Ok fwiw, i capped tonights game and i will be on jax. My only concern is all the distractions surrounding this team at the moment with ownership and where they will play in years to come. I have jax -1/2/with the total right on at 38.5. Team efficiency shows jax with the worst offense in the league and sd with the 16th best. The story for me is defense, where jax is 2nd in advanced team efficiency and sd is 30th. i think this sd team has mailed it in honestly, rivers is in horrid form. I will take a great defense, mjd, and gabbert who can shine at home against the struggling chargers traveling cross country. Not to mention over 70% on sd according to sportsbook spy. Jags in an ugly struggle 1x +3. Good luck. Early nfl for the weekend, niners -3 1x, denver -3.5 1x, denver under 36.5 1x.Comment -
PeltSBR High Roller
- 01-17-11
- 137
#1830If that catch is any indication of game breaks we are in.Comment -
SlickRick1382SBR MVP
- 10-15-11
- 3838
#1832Chargers Defense has been atrocious those last two Jacksonville drives. Especially that 40+ yard flick to MJD.Comment -
SlickRick1382SBR MVP
- 10-15-11
- 3838
#1833back to back TD's to close the half.... Now we're talking ....Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1834Nice to get an easy one for onceComment -
YouHave2outsSBR MVP
- 07-02-11
- 4448
#1835easy easy money. sorry for the fools on jax tonight.Comment -
peterrrSBR Hustler
- 11-03-11
- 56
#1836Comment -
RedscotSBR MVP
- 05-16-11
- 2571
#1837Nice call on the Wong's...I love them but I can't just bring myself to play them blindly like you. Have you kept a record of all Wong eligible teasers that you have played this year? If so, I would be interested in hearing the results via PM or in here.
Hope you rode the Chargers too. Good luck..I can't trust myself on Chargers games always seem to be on the wrong side.
Haven't kept a record of the Wong's bro, I missed a couple of weeks and as the season went on I omitted plays from time to time when I had a strong feeling against them. I would estimate I am roughly +10 (including the 3 has been a good move btw) units on them this season and - 10-12 units when I have freelanced. Has been pretty much a break even NFL season, had a great start and am having a decent finish, middle sucked, disappointed overall. Lotta heartache for no tangible return. Will be tailing you into Bowl season in NCAA and very much looking forward to your NBA.
Of course can't wait for baseball! Don't think my Met fade will be in effect next year, hard to think there will be any value left in fading them now.
Comment -
upscopeSBR MVP
- 04-26-11
- 2837
#1838Comment -
TrivialSBR MVP
- 11-22-09
- 1328
#1839Fools is a bit harsh ? I am sure lots of folks called the NIU foolish, but in a sport that anything can happen, I don't call any wager foolish. Some might have said betting on NYG or Indy this past weekend is foolish, but they covered.
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YouHave2outsSBR MVP
- 07-02-11
- 4448
#1840^^^ didn't mean it literally; sorry if i offended anyone. was just happy with a win. was one of my largest wagers of the season.Comment -
TrivialSBR MVP
- 11-22-09
- 1328
#1841
Thanks buds. I personally was not offended as I had nothing on the game, but could see how people bet Jags, and how they could misinterpret your enthusiasm.
Congrats on your win.
Comment -
TomatoFaceSBR High Roller
- 05-19-11
- 107
#1842Good call LTA on SD (-3) I liked seeing the Chargers look like they always do in December. Rivers is 23-2 in December. He waits way too long in the season to look spectacularComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1843Nice call on the Chargers LTA, I went against my initial lean and tailed you...I can't trust myself on Chargers games always seem to be on the wrong side.
Haven't kept a record of the Wong's bro, I missed a couple of weeks and as the season went on I omitted plays from time to time when I had a strong feeling against them. I would estimate I am roughly +10 (including the 3 has been a good move btw) units on them this season and - 10-12 units when I have freelanced. Has been pretty much a break even NFL season, had a great start and am having a decent finish, middle sucked, disappointed overall. Lotta heartache for no tangible return. Will be tailing you into Bowl season in NCAA and very much looking forward to your NBA.
Of course can't wait for baseball! Don't think my Met fade will be in effect next year, hard to think there will be any value left in fading them now.
I can't wait for baseball....hot stove baby. I think pujols stays in stl.
Cant wait for nba either. Looking forward to making some real money like we did with mlb.
Good Luck!Comment -
Donnie BrascoSBR Wise Guy
- 01-04-11
- 862
#1844Ur the man LTA. I hate to be a straight tail and am trying to cap independently but i am missing something badly!!!!Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1845
How have you been doing since you started setting your own lines? Have you been keeping an accurate record? Are you setting lines for every single game and tracking your projected outcome and the actual result?
If you are trying to develop a math model, it's going to take more than a week, a month or even a year to get it to a place you are comfortable. Even then, you are constantly tweaking and making adjustments.
The problem with modeling football is that there are so few games to bet. Consequently, there is very little test data.
You need to constantly look for back testing options, but even then, you need to remain cognizant of changes in the game.
You are going about this correctly, but I think you need to remember that you are in the infancy stages. You still have a ton of work to do. Have you read Conquering Risk? Have you read other books about predictive modeling?
It's going to take a serious time investment to get where you want to go. However, if you put in the work, it can be done.
For myself, I've only been doing this day in and day out for a couple of years. Before then, I was always a somewhat successful recreational spot bettor. However, I did not have any true reasons or math model as the basis of picks like I do now.
Earlier on, I did not understand the importance of pricing and getting the best lines. Once I decided to pursue this endeavor as an investment and apply a lot of my resources, I did my homework and learned what makes a successful sports investor.
I recommend that you start following line movement in relation to your model. The more often the line moves in the direction of where you have a game capped, the more success you will have. If you can develop a reliable math model or otherwise obtain the inherent ability to anticipate where the line will move, you can make a lot of money.
As you know, I always stress the importance of beating closers. The reason is because that is what will make you profitable long term. If you constantly beat the market and get more "value" on your plays than the rest of the market players, you will succeed.
Therefore, in addition to tracking wins/losses, start tracking how the line moves in relation to where you have the game set. That will lead you to find some things that you might be missing.
You should always be learning and striving to learn more. If you can be profitable now just starting out, think how profitable you can be 2, 5 or 10 years down the road. That's the way I look at it. I get excited to think about the future because I know my abilities will be that much better.
Don't worry about winning percentage right now. Just worry about tracking your results in both w/l and in relation to line movement and about proper money management. Play conservatively in general, but play aggressive when you are confident in your edge.
Do your homework and you will be fine. Don't get discouraged. You can be a profitable sports investor with hard work and discipline. Good luck.Comment -
06Ech0SBR High Roller
- 11-27-11
- 161
#1846
Why do you say that? It seemed like you have been doing well.
How have you been doing since you started setting your own lines? Have you been keeping an accurate record? Are you setting lines for every single game and tracking your projected outcome and the actual result?
If you are trying to develop a math model, it's going to take more than a week, a month or even a year to get it to a place you are comfortable. Even then, you are constantly tweaking and making adjustments.
The problem with modeling football is that there are so few games to bet. Consequently, there is very little test data.
You need to constantly look for back testing options, but even then, you need to remain cognizant of changes in the game.
You are going about this correctly, but I think you need to remember that you are in the infancy stages. You still have a ton of work to do. Have you read Conquering Risk? Have you read other books about predictive modeling?
It's going to take a serious time investment to get where you want to go. However, if you put in the work, it can be done.
For myself, I've only been doing this day in and day out for a couple of years. Before then, I was always a somewhat successful recreational spot bettor. However, I did not have any true reasons or math model as the basis of picks like I do now.
Earlier on, I did not understand the importance of pricing and getting the best lines. Once I decided to pursue this endeavor as an investment and apply a lot of my resources, I did my homework and learned what makes a successful sports investor.
I recommend that you start following line movement in relation to your model. The more often the line moves in the direction of where you have a game capped, the more success you will have. If you can develop a reliable math model or otherwise obtain the inherent ability to anticipate where the line will move, you can make a lot of money.
As you know, I always stress the importance of beating closers. The reason is because that is what will make you profitable long term. If you constantly beat the market and get more "value" on your plays than the rest of the market players, you will succeed.
Therefore, in addition to tracking wins/losses, start tracking how the line moves in relation to where you have the game set. That will lead you to find some things that you might be missing.
You should always be learning and striving to learn more. If you can be profitable now just starting out, think how profitable you can be 2, 5 or 10 years down the road. That's the way I look at it. I get excited to think about the future because I know my abilities will be that much better.
Don't worry about winning percentage right now. Just worry about tracking your results in both w/l and in relation to line movement and about proper money management. Play conservatively in general, but play aggressive when you are confident in your edge.
Do your homework and you will be fine. Don't get discouraged. You can be a profitable sports investor with hard work and discipline. Good luck.- i am new here, but i had to create an account to THANK YOU for my recent success! When the man says "YOU THE MAN LTA", He does not speak alone...I, TOO, AGREE!
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Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1847NFL 2011-2012 Week 13 Recap
6 - 5 = 0x
Losing that 1.5x play on the Lions/Saints over killed our week. But we move on.
NFL 2011-2012 Season
70 - 65 = -0.9x
We still have not been able to put together that monster week where everything goes our way. We have four weeks of regular season games left plus the playoffs to get into the 10x-15x profit range and meet our profit goals for the season. We will get there. Good luck.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1848NFL 2011-2012 Week 14
Play #1
Bills/Chargers over (47) 3x (Locked)
I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. If they make that move and I can still get 47, this will become a 4x play. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 3x, but might add more later. Good luck.Last edited by Love The Action; 12-07-11, 07:36 AM.Comment -
RedscotSBR MVP
- 05-16-11
- 2571
#1849NFL 2011-2012 Week 13 Recap
6 - 5 = 0x
Losing that 1.5x play on the Lions/Saints over killed our week. But we move on.
NFL 2011-2012 Season
70 - 65 = -0.9x
We still have not been able to put together that monster week where everything goes our way. We have four weeks of regular season games left plus the playoffs to get into the 10x-15x profit range and meet our profit goals for the season. We will get there. Good luck.
Anyway, appreciate the work you put in my man, keep grinding away, I have faith in your approach and discipline.
P.S. Jon RauchComment -
fergie's ballsSBR Wise Guy
- 02-07-11
- 940
#1850LTA, thanks for the work. i played at 47.5, but i see now 48 at 5D. was going to add another unit but 48 makes me nervous.Comment -
pagodoSBR Wise Guy
- 05-09-11
- 669
#1851Love this pick, LTA, tailing you here with utmost confidence!
Got 47.5 @ +100 and going for it.
Redscot, this upcoming baseball season looks like another heartbreaker for the Mets...Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1852I will probably have a play on the total tonight if I can get the number I'm looking for. What does everyone else like?Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#1853When I see the yearly total I almost can't believe my eyes bro. 135 plays and I don't think you could point to more than a handful where you didn't beat the closer and hence were on the "right side" of like 90% of you plays. Unbelievable. Makes guys like me feel like they are really up against it in the NFL, trying to make sense of the sharpness of the lines. Curious, do you have your numbers for totals plays vs. side plays this year? I wonder if the totals market in the NFL is more volatile than the sides......
Anyway, appreciate the work you put in my man, keep grinding away, I have faith in your approach and discipline.
P.S. Jon Rauch
Could be a long year for the mets. Tough to recover from their losses in terms of WAR. Reyes hurt.
All this hot stove action has me excited for MLB. I can't wait. Looking forward to a big NBA and MLB seasons.
Comment -
BiffTFinancialSBR Posting Legend
- 01-29-09
- 22670
#1854i like the under. i have this game as Stillers, 26-7, so also like Pittsburgh -14 and Browns TT under 12', but not as much as the under. are you waiting to see if you can get 39? i think that it will get there, which would save us in the event of 26-13. only place where the Browns have a pulse is on the defensive side of the ball, and with both teams having top-10 defenses and crappy offensive lines, i can't see a lot of points being scored. my concern is if Pittsburgh completely rolls up Cleveland and scores 30+, essentially getting the over by themselves.Comment -
ExxpressoSBR Sharp
- 08-29-10
- 279
#1855I like to tease the Under to 45.5 and the Steelers to - 7. What do you think LTA ? Is this a good play ?Comment
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