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  • guil0000
    SBR Sharp
    • 01-18-11
    • 472

    #1436
    Hope your doing good LTA. Can I ask approximately what your football record is?
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #1437
      Originally posted by lfep
      LTA, would LOVE to hear your leans ATS for today's games. In my book, its a coin flip across all three games.
      I have a small lean on Detroit at +6.5 or better. Although, you would have to be concerned as a Detroit backer if the line crossed over to +-7. That would be a sign big money is backing the Pack. That's a pass for me though, I like the under much better.

      Gun to my head, I would back the Cowboys at -6. Otherwise, I don't see a strong edge in that game and will pass.

      The night game is a true coinflip on the side in my opinion. I think that game is on point at -3 ish as the stats say that SF and Balty are very similar teams.

      Good luck on all of your plays and Happy Thanksgiving.
      Comment
      • Love The Action
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-08-10
        • 10952

        #1438
        Originally posted by fly fisher
        LTA, I love to root for you and tail at times, but I am riding the over, I hope we are on the same page for the rest of the games.
        No worries. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!
        Comment
        • GChild
          SBR MVP
          • 12-11-10
          • 3885

          #1439
          Originally posted by Love The Action
          I have a small lean on Detroit at +6.5 or better. Although, you would have to be concerned as a Detroit backer if the line crossed over to +-7. That would be a sign big money is backing the Pack. That's a pass for me though, I like the under much better.

          Gun to my head, I would back the Cowboys at -6. Otherwise, I don't see a strong edge in that game and will pass.

          The night game is a true coinflip on the side in my opinion. I think that game is on point at -3 ish as the stats say that SF and Balty are very similar teams.

          Good luck on all of your plays and Happy Thanksgiving.
          My books got greenbay -4 wow
          Comment
          • Dexter
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 12-24-08
            • 25829

            #1440
            Originally posted by Love The Action

            Gun to my head, I would back the Cowboys at -6. Otherwise, I don't see a strong edge in that game and will pass.
            you scared me - i thought the cowboy line dropped to 6 (i already played at -7).
            Comment
            • Overbettor
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 11-08-11
              • 951

              #1441
              Im with you lta. Barring any defensive or special teams tds and if we can get some field goals on sustained drives we should be golden.
              Comment
              • Love The Action
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-08-10
                • 10952

                #1442
                Originally posted by guil0000
                Hope your doing good LTA. Can I ask approximately what your football record is?
                Feeling better after a couple days of the flu....thanks. Check back a few pages, I update my record after every week. I'm up and down on the year in NFL and have not been able to put together a solid run yet...record currently around .500 and down a little over 4x. Looking forward to a big heater to close out the year though

                Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!
                Comment
                • Love The Action
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-08-10
                  • 10952

                  #1443
                  Almost 80% of all bets at Pinny on the GB/Det over but they are juicing the under 55 at -113. Some people might speculate the books are "baiting" under bettors, while others, like myself, just believe they are getting some solid under money coming in from respectable accounts.
                  Comment
                  • Love The Action
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-08-10
                    • 10952

                    #1444
                    Originally posted by GChild
                    My books got greenbay -4 wow
                    Crazy...actually more value on GB at that number. I have this game at GB -5.5, so I would be tempted to play them at -4....

                    This is another one that the books are either "baiting" Detroit money or they are getting respectable money on Detroit. I tend to think it's the latter.
                    Comment
                    • Love The Action
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-08-10
                      • 10952

                      #1445
                      Originally posted by Dexter
                      you scared me - i thought the cowboy line dropped to 6 (i already played at -7).
                      Nah...just giving my "play" range in that one. Good luck today Dex and Happy Thanksgiving!
                      Comment
                      • Love The Action
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-08-10
                        • 10952

                        #1446
                        Originally posted by Overbettor
                        Im with you lta. Barring any defensive or special teams tds and if we can get some field goals on sustained drives we should be golden.
                        I like the way you think!

                        Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!
                        Comment
                        • Dexter
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 12-24-08
                          • 25829

                          #1447
                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                          Nah...just giving my "play" range in that one. Good luck today Dex and Happy Thanksgiving!
                          same to you bro
                          Comment
                          • guil0000
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 01-18-11
                            • 472

                            #1448
                            thank you LTA hope you have a great thanksgiving!
                            Comment
                            • Love The Action
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-08-10
                              • 10952

                              #1449
                              Originally posted by Love The Action
                              NFL 2011-2012 Week 12

                              Play #1

                              Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked)

                              I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                              This one closed at 55 (-111) at Pinny, so it's a solid bet win or lose as beat the closer by a full point (it did close at 54.5 at some outlets such as 5D). We made it through the first quarter and a half without any points before GB scored, so let's hope they stick with this slower pace and limit the points going forward. This one could end up close because of the explosiveness of both offenses. However, I definitely like what I have seen so far.

                              I am going to hit the road for the in-laws house in a couple of hours but wanted to provide you with some quick thoughts on my leans for today. I lean under in the remaining games today as I see value in each under play. I have the totals set at 43 in the Dolphins/Cowboys game and 38 in the SF/Balty game. That's at least two points of value in comparison to the current number. As far as any plays on the side, I probably will lay off because I don't see any value at the current numbers.

                              In the Mia/Dallas game, I don't think Matt Moore will fare well against a dangerous Dallas defensive line playing behind the boisterous home crowd. I do worry that Dallas will be able to pass on the Miami secondary, which is my biggest concern. Nevertheless, Miami has top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P and WPA advanced efficiency stats and I expect them to play well against the Cowboys rushing attack. By making Dallas one dimensional, you put more pressure on Romo and although he has played well of late, we all know his history of meltdowns. At the end of the day, I think we see a game where Dallas dominates Miami on the defensive side of the ball and limits Moore's play making ability. I don't expect Miami's rushing offense to have a good game against Dallas and I don't believe in Moore. I trust that with Miles Austin missing, Miami can hold Dallas to 27 points or less as I don't see Miami scoring more than 17. I can get 45 right now and am holding out hope for 45.5 before a drop. I expect this one to close at 44.

                              In the late game between SF/Balty, we have seen real and true steam on the over as the total went from 38.5 to 40 at multiple books including Pinny all at the same time around 7:31 pm last night. That is true steam and would indicate the over is the play. Still, I'm not sure and will let the line moves play out before deciding. Both teams are remarkably similar in offensive and defensive advanced stats. Both teams are top 5 defensively against both the rush and the pass in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I have not seen such a defensive matchup all year to date and I expect great defensive play. On offense, both teams are middle of the pack in those same advanced efficiency stats. However, Baltimore's offense is night and day when it comes to away/home scores and really piles on the points at home where they average over 30. Therefore, that could be the cause of the steam and is a definite concern. In addition, SF has a much improved offense, especially with Smith playing well. Nevertheless, if I can get this one at 41 or better, I will have to consider the under.
                              Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving to all. I will post any play via my phone.
                              Comment
                              • shocktopme
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 10-15-10
                                • 940

                                #1450
                                .

                                I was all over that under 56 too with a much improved Lions D on national tv bird day!!!!Happy thanksgiving my friend!!
                                Comment
                                • Love The Action
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-08-10
                                  • 10952

                                  #1451
                                  Damn....that was a punk move by Suh, but I don't think he should be kicked out of the game for that. Those kinds of things happen in every NFL game. You can't kick one of the best players out on that weak stuff. That really hurts the Lions defense.....

                                  Edit: I didn't see Suh grind the guy's helmet....that was a stupid play and did deserve an ejection upon review. He needs to stop that sort of thing to reach elite status in this league.
                                  Last edited by Love The Action; 11-24-11, 02:45 PM.
                                  Comment
                                  • Love The Action
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-08-10
                                    • 10952

                                    #1452
                                    Can't believe there is 32 points in this game with basically a full quarter left. Pack needs to run some time off this clock with a sustained drive here.
                                    Comment
                                    • NYSportsGuy210
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 11-07-09
                                      • 11347

                                      #1453
                                      Any thoughts on the Cowboys-Dolphins OVER-UNDER?
                                      Comment
                                      • Love The Action
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-08-10
                                        • 10952

                                        #1454
                                        Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210
                                        Any thoughts on the Cowboys-Dolphins OVER-UNDER?
                                        Yep...I posted my leans earlier. Look five posts above yours.

                                        I lean under for some of the reasons mentioned. However, the line movement appears to indicate the over is the play. Nevertheless, if I can get 46, I will probably pull trigger.
                                        Comment
                                        • Love The Action
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-08-10
                                          • 10952

                                          #1455
                                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                                          NFL 2011-2012 Week 12

                                          Play #1

                                          Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked)

                                          I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                          Play #2

                                          Dolphins/Cowboys under (46) 1x (Locked)

                                          I am going to play with fire and fade the line movement in this game. I just don't see this one going over 46 points. As I stated in my notes above, I don't think Matt Moore will fare well against a dangerous Dallas defensive line playing behind the boisterous home crowd. I do worry that Dallas will be able to pass on the Miami secondary and that is my biggest concern. However, Miami has a top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P and WPA advanced efficiency stats and I expect them to play well against the Cowboys rushing attack. By making Dallas one dimensional, you put more pressure on Romo and that is how I expect Miami to approach this game. I don't expect that Miami will be able to stop Dallas, but I think they can slow them down and limit the big plays. On the other side, I think this is a great game for Rob Ryan and Dallas' defense to shine. I think we see a game where Dallas dominates Miami on the defensive side of the ball and limits Moore's play making ability. I don't expect Miami's rushing offense to have a good game against Dallas and I don't believe in Moore in this spot going against such a fast defense like the Cowboys. With Miles Austin missing, I think Miami can hold Dallas to 27 points or less and I don't see Miami scoring more than 17. I have this game set at 43 and expect a 24-17 type of game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                          Comment
                                          • Love The Action
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-08-10
                                            • 10952

                                            #1456
                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                            NFL 2011-2012 Week 12

                                            Play #1

                                            Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked) WINNER

                                            I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                            Play #2

                                            Dolphins/Cowboys under (46) 1x (Locked)

                                            I am going to play with fire and fade the line movement in this game. I just don't see this one going over 46 points. As I stated in my notes above, I don't think Matt Moore will fare well against a dangerous Dallas defensive line playing behind the boisterous home crowd. I do worry that Dallas will be able to pass on the Miami secondary and that is my biggest concern. However, Miami has a top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P and WPA advanced efficiency stats and I expect them to play well against the Cowboys rushing attack. By making Dallas one dimensional, you put more pressure on Romo and that is how I expect Miami to approach this game. I don't expect that Miami will be able to stop Dallas, but I think they can slow them down and limit the big plays. On the other side, I think this is a great game for Rob Ryan and Dallas' defense to shine. I think we see a game where Dallas dominates Miami on the defensive side of the ball and limits Moore's play making ability. I don't expect Miami's rushing offense to have a good game against Dallas and I don't believe in Moore in this spot going against such a fast defense like the Cowboys. With Miles Austin missing, I think Miami can hold Dallas to 27 points or less and I don't see Miami scoring more than 17. I have this game set at 43 and expect a 24-17 type of game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                            Play #3

                                            49'ers/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked)

                                            I have to leave for Thanksgiving dinner and I'm going to buy the hook in this rare instance as the line movement at Pinny appears to indicate that the total has topped out at 40.5 and 41 is the most important key number in NFL totals. Pinny is currently juicing the under at -109 and if the under money continues a drop back down to 40 cannot be that far behind. It is true that we have seen true steam on the over as the total went from 38.5 to 40 at multiple books (including Pinny) all at the same time around 7:31 pm last night. That is true steam and would indicate the over is the play. However, I'm not convinced. Both teams are remarkably similar in offensive and defensive advanced stats. Both teams are top 5 defensively against both the rush and the pass in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I have not seen such a defensive matchup all year to date that featured two top 5 ranked defenses in advanced stats and that is one of the reasons I expect great defensive play. On offense, both teams are middle of the pack in those same advanced efficiency stats. However, Baltimore's offense is night and day when it comes to away/home scores and really piles on the points at home where they average over 30. Therefore, that could be the cause of the steam and is a definite concern. In addition, SF has a much improved offense, especially with Smith playing well. Nevertheless, I love covering the key number of 41 in this spot as I have this one set at 38, thereby giving us a full FG of value here. I am going to buy the hook to cover 41 and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                            Comment
                                            • Love The Action
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-08-10
                                              • 10952

                                              #1457
                                              Originally posted by Love The Action
                                              NFL 2011-2012 Week 12

                                              Play #1

                                              Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked) WINNER

                                              I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                              Play #2

                                              Dolphins/Cowboys under (46) 1x (Locked)

                                              I am going to play with fire and fade the line movement in this game. I just don't see this one going over 46 points. As I stated in my notes above, I don't think Matt Moore will fare well against a dangerous Dallas defensive line playing behind the boisterous home crowd. I do worry that Dallas will be able to pass on the Miami secondary and that is my biggest concern. However, Miami has a top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P and WPA advanced efficiency stats and I expect them to play well against the Cowboys rushing attack. By making Dallas one dimensional, you put more pressure on Romo and that is how I expect Miami to approach this game. I don't expect that Miami will be able to stop Dallas, but I think they can slow them down and limit the big plays. On the other side, I think this is a great game for Rob Ryan and Dallas' defense to shine. I think we see a game where Dallas dominates Miami on the defensive side of the ball and limits Moore's play making ability. I don't expect Miami's rushing offense to have a good game against Dallas and I don't believe in Moore in this spot going against such a fast defense like the Cowboys. With Miles Austin missing, I think Miami can hold Dallas to 27 points or less and I don't see Miami scoring more than 17. I have this game set at 43 and expect a 24-17 type of game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                              Play #3

                                              49'ers/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked)

                                              I have to leave for Thanksgiving dinner and I'm going to buy the hook in this rare instance as the line movement at Pinny appears to indicate that the total has topped out at 40.5 and 41 is the most important key number in NFL totals. Pinny is currently juicing the under at -109 and if the under money continues a drop back down to 40 cannot be that far behind. It is true that we have seen true steam on the over as the total went from 38.5 to 40 at multiple books (including Pinny) all at the same time around 7:31 pm last night. That is true steam and would indicate the over is the play. However, I'm not convinced. Both teams are remarkably similar in offensive and defensive advanced stats. Both teams are top 5 defensively against both the rush and the pass in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I have not seen such a defensive matchup all year to date that featured two top 5 ranked defenses in advanced stats and that is one of the reasons I expect great defensive play. On offense, both teams are middle of the pack in those same advanced efficiency stats. However, Baltimore's offense is night and day when it comes to away/home scores and really piles on the points at home where they average over 30. Therefore, that could be the cause of the steam and is a definite concern. In addition, SF has a much improved offense, especially with Smith playing well. Nevertheless, I love covering the key number of 41 in this spot as I have this one set at 38, thereby giving us a full FG of value here. I am going to buy the hook to cover 41 and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                              Card is final. No more plays in NFL or NCAAF for today. I will have my Friday NCAAF plays posted tomorrow morning. I'm off for Thanksgiving dinner. Good luck to everyone and Happy Thanksgiving. Let's end the day cashing this 3-pack of unders!
                                              Comment
                                              • GChild
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-11-10
                                                • 3885

                                                #1458
                                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                Card is final. No more plays in NFL or NCAAF for today. I will have my Friday NCAAF plays posted tomorrow morning. I'm off for Thanksgiving dinner. Good luck to everyone and Happy Thanksgiving. Let's end the day cashing this 3-pack of unders!
                                                You to brother !!! Have a nice evening.,.

                                                Comment
                                                • Wayne
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 12-31-09
                                                  • 138

                                                  #1459
                                                  Solid capping. Great write-ups as usual. GL
                                                  Comment
                                                  • 815Sox
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 09-13-10
                                                    • 1078

                                                    #1460
                                                    Happy thanksgiving guys!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Trivial
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-22-09
                                                      • 1328

                                                      #1461
                                                      Happy Turkey Day to all my American friends out there. May you enjoy this day with your family from your brother in Canada.

                                                      Just got home from work, and missed all the plays LTA has come up with, but that is okay - cause I'm standing by my guns and staying away until playoffs.

                                                      I really need a Baltimore loss tonight to help my Baltimore UNDER 10.5 wins for the season.

                                                      Good Luck all.

                                                      Comment
                                                      • Love The Action
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                        • 10952

                                                        #1462
                                                        Thanks guys...cash the Cowboys under. Lets get this 3-pack under sweep. Late game under down to 40 with some outlets juicing the under. Would live to see pinny drop to 39.5 before kickoff. About to sit down to dinner. Good luck tonight guys!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • killersweet
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-02-08
                                                          • 1483

                                                          #1463
                                                          Great calls on the early games and let's get the night game too
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Love The Action
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-08-10
                                                            • 10952

                                                            #1464
                                                            About 7 minutes left and a 3 td cushion for the sweep....let's cash this ticket!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • GChild
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-11-10
                                                              • 3885

                                                              #1465
                                                              Boooooom nice job LTA
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MrXYZ
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-18-11
                                                                • 2342

                                                                #1466
                                                                Congrats LTA, great work!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Trivial
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 11-22-09
                                                                  • 1328

                                                                  #1467
                                                                  Good work LTA. Congrats on the sweep.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • brucethebear
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 08-16-10
                                                                    • 724

                                                                    #1468
                                                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                    Looking forward to a big heater to close out the year though

                                                                    Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!
                                                                    Today looks like a good start.
                                                                    Well played sir.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • pagodo
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 05-09-11
                                                                      • 669

                                                                      #1469
                                                                      Congratulations, LTA!
                                                                      Brilliant handicapping work and a well-deserved sweep
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Love The Action
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                                        • 10952

                                                                        #1470
                                                                        Thanks guys....let's keep it going in NCAAF today!
                                                                        Comment
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