DeSean Jackson is a ******* idiot ....
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This game makes me want to puke as well. The Giants can't even get a first down on multiple 3rd and 1 plays against one of the worst 3rd down defenses in the NFL. Then DeSean Jackson gets a taunting penalty to nullify a 50 yard pass play. WTF, when it rains in pours. I'm going to bed. The Bears game was 3-3 after the first quarter and we lost that under, so maybe the same thing will happen in this one. Fuk this shit...Comment -
That was a post play penalty. Should they not just move the ball back 15 yards instead if all the way back to the 1? That makes no sense. They are not offsetting. One was during play. One was post play.Comment -
Im usually fairly level-headed about losses but im so ******* pissed right now. That Ballard drop on the giants first series changed the whole course of this game.Comment -
If Giants can score in this final 1:30 were back in this. Cmon throw us a frickin bone Eli!Comment -
******* BALLARD!!!! ughComment -
Catch the ball Ballard!!! Wtf!?Comment -
And now Cruz! CATCH THE BALL!Comment -
10pts in the last 1min 20sec of the 2nd qtr
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Only 5 touchdowns!!!Comment -
Jay Cutler broke his thumb on his throwing hand...could be done for the year, at least 6-8 weeks. That kills the Bears....Comment -
Rough day...ended up losing a little over 4x with a couple of really tough beats. Will update records after tonight.
Time to start this week with a fresh outlook...as you know, we need to have a short memory in this business. We have been treading water between 3 or 4 units up and 3 or 4 units down all season, which is where we remain. The good news is that we are in great position to make a run with variance firmly on our side moving forward. I very much believe our best days are ahead with my model taking shape and my ability to predict line movement at its best right now. There is plenty of time to reach my 10x-20x seasonal profit goal and I won't let some bad beats curtail my optimism for success this season. We will catch some breaks before its all said and done. Time to get to work on next weeks games.
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We believe!Comment -
Bol ltaComment -
So far I'm liking the CAR/IND under 44 and BAL/SF over 38.5. Any thoughts yet L.T.A.?Comment -
Any thoughts on pats/chiefs? Im concentrating on the total at this point......not to confident laying 16 points no matter who's quarterbacking.Comment -
Yeah. You would think chiefs +17 would be the play since it's a Monday night. They'll give it their all vs. The Pats. But I just can't pick a side here. 1.5x on the over for me. Pats 52-10 here!Comment -
^^^^
so, chiefs +17 seems like a good play.
you can't pick a side.
52-10 pats prediction.Comment -
Who knows?? It's a Monday night football game.Comment -
If it were only that easy though...I thought Carolina and Atlanta were both in great spots yesterday. One goes up 24-7 while getting 7 points, only to lose the lead late by giving up two TD's in 2 minutes to blow the cover and the other Atlanta, is in full control 23-3 laying 6 only to shut it down late and end up pushing. You can be on the right side and lose, the NFL is really hard.
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No play or leans tonight. Passing all the way around. I think this game is set pretty accurately on the total and the 3 points of value on KC is unplayable because of their injuries. Good luck in whatever you choose.
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Starting to think the over might be a solid play here. I understand why people like the under which explains the line movement, but 46 is pretty low for a Pats game and their secondary is pretty weak and injured. I can't imagine the Pats perform as bad on offense as the Giants did last night....hmmm....Comment -
I'm on a couple of props tonight. I don't like the side or total.
Tom Brady Over 2.5 TD passes (-120) x2
Wes Welker will have a TD reception (+108) x0.5
Rob Gronkowski will have a TD reception (-113) x0.5
Just a little fun on an otherwise pretty unbettable game.Comment -
Wish I'd passed too. Took over 46.5.
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Love the optimism. I ended the week on the worst possible note of my short gambling career but been having a short memory like you've said so many times and it's paying dividends. Shortened up my bets and some better research / money management. Up 4 units on college ball and hockey ...
This is gonna be a good week bro. All around for all of us. Feel it !!!!!
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over on monday night are always tough. then again so are big public faves....Comment -
How ya looking for thanksgiving plays?Comment -
NFL 2011-2012 Week 12
Play #1
Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked)
I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
LTA, would LOVE to hear your leans ATS for today's games. In my book, its a coin flip across all three games.Comment -
LTA, I love to root for you and tail at times, but I am riding the over, I hope we are on the same page for the rest of the games.Comment
