LTA's NFL PLays

[alamo]

Great day LTA. Congratulations on the Cowboys over. Was good to see some of the luck on your side.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 10

Play #1

Bills/Cowboys over (48) 5x (Locked) WINNER

I've been watching this one all day and just don't see it going down to 47, so I'm going to lock it in now. First, the Buffalo defense is really struggling right now, especially against the pass. They are suffering from a few injuries that are affecting both their secondary and pass rush. On the other despite, despite some horrible offensive efficiency in the red zone, the Cowboys offense is moving the ball at will right now with the addition of Demarco Murray at rb. That running game with Murray really opens up the play action and keeps the linebackers away from defending that deep in to Dez Bryant across the middle. Miles Austin will be out a couple weeks, but I don't see this affecting Dallas' ability to move the ball against this Buffalo defense. The Bills offense had been playing unbelievably efficient until facing that Jets buzzsaw at home last week. I expect a turnaround performance from Ryan Fitzpatrick and Co. on the road, playing against another Ryan family coached defense. Buffalo is a top 5 defense in Off EPA and WPA as well as Passing EPA and WPA in addition to top 5 DVOA efficiency. Buffalo will be playing on a fast track in warm temps which will be conducive to their passing attack. I expect a rebound from Buffalo's skill position players, especially Johnson and Jackson. I have this game set at 51 and we are covering the key number of 48, while getting three points of value. I would have liked to get 47 for coverage on that key number, but I just see this number going up throughout the week and I am rolling with the over for 5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Chiefs (-3) 1x (Locked) LOSS

See my thoughts above. I also agree with SK about his points respecting this game. Tebow loses this one as KC will force him to pass in a tough game at Arrowhead. Good luck.

Play #3

Ravens/Seahawks under (41) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Both teams are top 10 in advanced defensive stats. Seattle truly dominates against the run where they rank in the top 5 in virtually every statistical category in rushing defense. However, they do struggle against the pass where they rank in the bottom third of the league. Nevertheless, because this game is at Seattle, I expect that crowd to help out with Baltimore's ability to audible and I'm hoping they can limit that dangerous Balty passing offense just enough to keep this one under the posted total. Balty dominates on defense across the board and Seattle's offensive is not exactly the best in the league, so I expect this one to come in at 37 or under which is where I have this one set. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Steelers/Bengals under (41) 1x (Locked) PUSH

This play is similar to the Ravens/Seahawks play. Even though Pittsburgh and Cincy have better offenses than those two teams, you still have to remember that Dalton is remains a rookie and will not play perfect every game. At some point, he is going to struggle and the Steelers have righted their once struggling defensive ship. Both teams are top 15 or better (most top 10) in advanced defensive stats. I think both offenses struggle just enough today to keep this under the posted total. I am rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #5

Lions/Bears under (43) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I'm really kicking myself for not taking this earlier in the week at 45, but we're still covering the key total numbers of 43 and 41 so I will take a shot with some crazy winds here in Chicago and a Lions offense that should struggle against the run. I am also starting to have a Bears lean and may tease the Bears with the under (and break the rule of crossing zero) and/or play the Bears if I can get them -2.5. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Saints/Falcons over (49) 1x (Locked) PUSH

While Atlanta's defense has made some major improvements, I just don't forsee this game following the recent under trend between these two teams. Both teams' offense are functioning on all cylinders in this game. I have this one at 51 and as soon as 49 became available, I had to jump on it and roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Jaguars/Colts under (38) 1x (Locked) WINNER

It's time for the Colts defense to show up at home against a rookie QB that has not found a lot of success so far. Even though I think Painter is not as bad as has been portrayed, I do not believe he will get to the end zone enough against this top 10 Jaguars defense to blow this under. We are covering the key numbers of 37 and 38, so I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Texans/Bucs over (45) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I've been eyeing this game all week for an over play and there has been very little line movement. I think we see a Bucs offense wake up at home today against a tough, but susceptible Texans defense. On the other side, I expect the Texans dominate rush attack to show up strong today against a weakened Bucs defense sans McCoy. I think we see a close game and a strong game from home dog that helps push this one over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Patriots/Jets over (47) 1x (Locked)

We cashed the over in the first game of this series earlier in the year and we'll take a shot again here. Even though I generally look for plays in a preceding game of a series which are unlikely to happen in the following game -- for example in the first game of this series there was a kick return and fumble return for a TD which are unlikely to happen tonight -- and that strategy gives us plenty of reasons to take the under here, I am still going to roll with the over because I think we see some solid offensive play tonight. The Pats have struggled offensively in their last three games and many will think they struggle again today against a top 5 Jets defense according to the advanced stats, however, I think we see both offenses move the ball today. The Pats are suffering some injuries to linebacker and in the D-backfield to an already weak defense, which I think allows for the Jets to take advantage. I expect at least 3 td's from the Jets tonight and would not be surprised to see them get 24-28 so the question becomes what will the Pats get against the vaunted Jets defense. Well, I think we should not forget that the Pats are rate top 5 in most advanced offensive efficiency categories and should be able to get us 21-24 on their own. I think it's time the Pats offense breaks out after three straight clunkers. I like this game to be a classic Sunday night barn burner with both teams scoring 3 td's. The question is whether we will get that 7th touchdown of the game and I think we will. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[YouHave2outs]

Play #9

Patriots/Jets over (47) 1x (Locked)

We cashed the over in the first game of this series earlier in the year and we'll take a shot again here. Even though I generally look for plays in a preceding game of a series which are unlikely to happen in the following game -- for example in the first game of this series there was a kick return and fumble return for a TD which are unlikely to happen tonight -- and that strategy gives us plenty of reasons to take the under here, I am still going to roll with the over because I think we see some solid offensive play tonight. The Pats have struggled offensively in their last three games and many will think they struggle again today against a top 5 Jets defense according to the advanced stats, however, I think we see both offenses move the ball today. The Pats are suffering some injuries to linebacker and in the D-backfield to an already weak defense, which I think allows for the Jets to take advantage. I expect at least 3 td's from the Jets tonight and would not be surprised to see them get 24-28 so the question becomes what will the Pats get against the vaunted Jets defense. Well, I think we should not forget that the Pats are rate top 5 in most advanced offensive efficiency categories and should be able to get us 21-24 on their own. I think it's time the Pats offense breaks out after three straight clunkers. I like this game to be a classic Sunday night barn burner with both teams scoring 3 td's. The question is whether we will get that 7th touchdown of the game and I think we will. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[GChild]

Boom

[Krazymojo]

well i thought that was a good start and it just crashed

[Love The Action]

And the Jets not only miss out on an early touchdown, but Folk also misses the 24 yard chip shot FG

[Love The Action]

well i thought that was a good start and it just crashed

Can't miss out on scoring ops like that.....sucks.

[GChild]

It's early pats can put up points fast

[Trivial]

And the Jets not only miss out on an early touchdown, but Folk also misses the 24 yard chip shot FG

Seriously. Gotta stay calm... Don't want to kick Sanchez in the nuts. Don't.....

[Dexter]

And the Jets not only miss out on an early touchdown, but Folk also misses the 24 yard chip shot FG

they moved the ball through the air at ease. Its a beautiful night here in NY/NJ. The Jets should keep airing it out then sprinkle in the run game. the pats are the worst pass defense in the league, and i expect the jets coaching staff to exploit that all night.

[marzayy]

i seee a high scoring game by the way sanchez decided to throw early!, should be an easy one

[RAVENSFAN]

i seee a high scoring game by the way sanchez decided to throw early!, should be an easy one

Not if defense just shows up in the red zones like it has. FG night.

[Trivial]

Sigh.. I would be a lot happier if it were the Jets scoring these field goals. I have hope though. Most first quarters have been like this.

[Trivial]

Wholly crap. Saw that sack a mile away. I gotta go to bed. Getting to pumped up. Hopefully a Jets 28 - 26 win awaits.

[Donnie Brasco]

Locked a few early nfl plays:
Seattle +1 +105 1x
Jax pk +100 1x
Write ups coming, best of luck guys!

[alamo]

Everyone needs to calm down. Only a qtr gone and the pace of the game is really good.

[Donnie Brasco]

Locked a few early nfl plays:
Seattle +1 +105 1x
Jax pk +100 1x
Write ups coming, best of luck guys!

And a few early totals:
Titans/ falcons over 44.5 1x
Lions/panthers under 48.5 1x
Niners/cards under 41.5 1x

[Overbettor]

And a few early totals:
Titans/ falcons over 44.5 1x
Lions/panthers under 48.5 1x
Niners/cards under 41.5 1x

Looking forward to your write-ups. Lord knows I need all the help I can get. Congrats on your big day.

[Love The Action]

Those points getting waved off on the Gronkowski TD really hurt...oh well, I'm off for bed. GL

[Overbettor]

Another pick 6 to cash out!!! I just fell in love with you LTA. Congrats fellas

[mbcoutinho]

BIG WIN TONIGHT...
Got Pats ML and over 49.

#Jetsucks

[No coincidences]

Bills didn't help you out much on the big one, eh LTA?



Congrats on the big hit my friend.

[Dave88]

Great way to finish the weekend.



Now, lets get MNF!!

Good Luck everybody!!

[GChild]

Nice job buddy

[Ab34]

way to go lta!

[Donnie Brasco]

So far so good, 5-1, +5.9 units

Flushed 2 on the jets, -2.2 units
5-2, +3.7 units

Nice over LTA!

[Redscot]

Great Sunday LTA and Donnie

[Trivial]

Flushed 2 on the jets, -2.2 units
5-2, +3.7 units

Nice over LTA!

I tailed thinking the Jets are the better team.

Thats it.. Sorry Red. I trusted your Jets once and the last time. LOL.

[Redscot]

I tailed thinking the Jets are the better team.

Thats it.. Sorry Red. I trusted your Jets once and the last time. LOL.

LOL, looks like both our teams took it on the chin this weekend. I only played the over myself, didn't trust the Jets much myself this week. Let's hope for a better weekend next week for our teams.

[Trivial]

LOL, looks like both our teams took it on the chin this weekend. I only played the over myself, didn't trust the Jets much myself this week. Let's hope for a better weekend next week for our teams.

Indeed. I should have headed the warning signs against the Jets. -1 was too good to be true. Ouch.

Anyhow, if both our teams lose this coming weekend, we can start singing a different song. I even had my wife convinced that IF:

1) The Bills made the playoffs AND
2) The Bills were hosting a home game (90 minute drive from Toronto, Canada) AND
3) I made money on sports betting by end of December

I could go and pay the "scalper money" on a playoff game in Buffalo using my winnings.

So far, all 3 are not happening. LOL.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 10 Recap

5 - 2 - 2 = +6.8x

NFL 2011-2012 Season

53 - 51 = -0.30x

Time to make a run.....

[Love The Action]

Probably no play for me tonight unless I can get the under at 51 or better.....also lean to the Packers but double digit NFL faves not a great way to make a living. Perhaps an action teaser for fun.

[Love The Action]

LOL, looks like both our teams took it on the chin this weekend. I only played the over myself, didn't trust the Jets much myself this week. Let's hope for a better weekend next week for our teams.

I think I trust the Jets more than the Bills moving forward.

Sorry Triv, that Bills D is regressing. Their playoff hopes are dying fast....

[Trivial]

Probably no play for me tonight unless I can get the under at 51 or better.....also lean to the Packers but double digit NFL faves not a great way to make a living. Perhaps an action teaser for fun.

I was thinking of doing a 13 point teaser just for fun as well with games for next week.

GB ML
GB UNDER 63

And 2 of the following
Was thinking about Buffalo Miami UNDER 56
Seattle/Rams OVER 24.5
TEN/ATLANTA OVER 31
PHIL/NYG UNDER 60
DETROIT +6 vs. Carolina
GB ML vs. Tampa
Chicago +9 vs. San Diego

Leaning towards this being the final ticket:

GB ML (tonights game)
GB UNDER 63 (tonights game)
GB ML vs. Tampa
Chicago +9 vs. San Diego

Thoughts?

[Trivial]

I think I trust the Jets more than the Bills moving forward.

Sorry Triv, that Bills D is regressing. Their playoff hopes are dying fast....

Thanks. Been a Bills fan for too long. Been there, done that. I nearly collapsed again when I saw Miami now being a favourite this coming week over Buffalo.

Thinking of taking the Bills, but holding onto my emotions.