LTA's NFL PLays

[Krazymojo]

ughhhhhhhhhhhhh Pats over not looking so good and damn chargers get in red zone with ease but cant score a td

[Redscot]

ughhhhhhhhhhhhh Pats over not looking so good and damn chargers get in red zone with ease but cant score a td

Chargers game is gonna go over, we are more than half way there with some poor red zone efficiency.

Jet game is gonna be tougher....we need some turnover's for points and a special team play or two. I think the Jets Offense is primed to hit a big one on offense this second half after playing it close to the vest and softening up the Pats. Brady of course is always dangerous.....

[Redscot]

Very disappointed they reversed that call, yet it gives some hope for the over so.....gotta side for the greater good of the thread followers....here's hoping it turns into a shootout.....as I speak we are getting a special teams play!!

[Krazymojo]

looking better

[Love The Action]

Gotta get at least 10 more points in this third quarter of the Pats/Jets game. Hope they are all scored by the Jets too...

Denver needs to make this a competitive game or SD will just be content to run out the clock...damn Norv Turner.

[Love The Action]

Chargers game is gonna go over, we are more than half way there.

Grrrrr....



Just kidding...man I really need this on though....

[Redscot]

Grrrrr....



Just kidding...man I really need this on though....

You and me both

Yeah man, I put the ole' Alakazaam on that one. Wtf! Not watching it, but seemed like it was rolling along nicely.....I still have faith . Denver has let us down on more than one occasion now.

Jet game still has promise

[Krazymojo]

can only get -6 for packers but im looking at the over

[Love The Action]

Belechick is going to kick this field goal and not run out the clock...right?

[kingsr]

can only get -6 for packers but im looking at the over

Pinny has it at 5.5

[Redscot]

Belechick is going to kick this field goal and not run out the clock...right?

I certainly hope so......when I said I had faith in the Denver over I knew Tebow would provide divine intervention Come on N.E. kick the 3

[alamo]

He will just take a kneel

[Krazymojo]

boom ne cashed

[Redscot]

After all is said and done we got the 2 overs .

Now my chance to vent.......motherfuckin' Plexico Buress left his manhood in the clink. Aligator arm...dropping balls worried about getting hit...mofo! REX! We got beat in fundamentals today, careless errors!...enough spotlight fatboy, get back to basics! Every call went against us...but we probably deserved that....you make your luck.

O.K. I feel a bit better........what are we gonna do about this night game

[Love The Action]

If Pinny goes to -6 with GB, I will probably let the bet ride. If they stay at -5.5, I might buy out and take +6 for Atl and hope that I get a GB win by 6 with pretty much no risk other than juice. Let's just see where this line goes. I expect heavy money to come in on GB.

As far as the total, I agree the over is the play. Let's end this one one a high note going into our Bears/Lions under play tomorrow, which, btw, is down to 47 and even 46.5 in some spots. Glad I jumped on that one at 48.5, but I hope that we don't see a bunch of over money tomorrow like I fear.

Good luck tonight boys.

[Krazymojo]

up to 6.5 with my local and 54.5

[Love The Action]

up to 6.5 with my local and 54.5

Yeah...I can get 6.5 right now as well. I'm just going to sit tight to see where late money goes. I don't see that 6.5 going away. At the very worst, you can get 6. However, if we see Pinny go up to the key number of 6, then I think we let this one ride with GB. It's hard to beat Atlanta at home on a big TV game, but Green Bay is one hell of a team. Let's just see where the line goes.

[Krazymojo]

I just took GB -6....yes its hard to beat ATL at home but I dont see GB slowing down just yet

[bfour]

Pack up to -7 on Bodog's square book.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011 Week 5

Play #1

Chargers/Broncos over (47) 1x (Locked)

I think this game finally allows us to see the full range of the Chargers offense, from the running game to the passing game. The Chargers are an interesting team because they have the ability to put up 28 points every time they touch the field, but inconsistency holds them back. In this game, I think you see them finally put together a nice performance on the road. Mile high is hard place to play, however, Denver's defense does not have the horses to stop this efficient Charger attack. If you look the advanced stat DAVE projections, the SD offense is projected to be around the 5th best offense in the league. That means they should start hitting their strides relatively soon and I think that starts in Week 5. On the other side, Denver will get you three touchdowns and I think that is the case at home this week. The Charger defense itself has been very inconsistent and I don't expect this to be a defensive intensity type game. I think we see some early scores which leads to a one dimensional Denver pass attack that gets some late meaningless points. I have this game at 51, so we're getting over a fg in value and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Eagles/Bills over (49) 1.5x (Locked)

I wanted to get 48 on this one but it never materialized and only started going up. Most outlets are at 49.5 and 50, so I when I saw 49 available I had to jump on it. This should be a good old fashioned shootout, especially when we get to the 4th quarter. Both qb's can run the 2 minute offense to perfection and find those open seam rights down the hashes. There is no secret that both defenses are struggling right now, while the offenses are firing but still have room for improvement. As always, the Vick factor helps the Eagles get some undeserved first downs and creates another indefensible option at the goal line. I just don't see the Bills defense able to stop the Eagles. On the other side, the Eagles have had nothing but problems defensively and this high flying Bills attack should only add to those woes. I like this number and have this game at 53, therefore I'm rolling with the over for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bears/Lions under (48.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm risking that this one does not go up further, however, I think this is the best number that will be available on this game. I have this one at 45 and like this one as long as you can at least get the key number of 47. I understand the Lions offense is unstoppable right now with Megatron, but one of the cornerbacks who has given him the most problems in his career has been Charles Tillman. The Bears have traditionally been able to contain him as much as a mere mortal can. I suspect this one will be a defensive struggle and end in the 24-17 range. The Lions defense is just as fear imposing as their offense and that defensive line should kill Cutler. I really don't see the Bears receivers being able to do too much because Cutler is not going to have enough time to throw the ball. We cashed on the Bears/Saints under and the Bears/Packers under for the same reasons. You have an inflated line because of the opposing offense. However, the Bears defense should be able to employ their classic bend but don't break defense and keep Detroit out of the end zone a bit more than Dallas did. I expect the Bears and Martz to actually build upon their running game success and try to keep that dangerous Lions offense off the field. This will chew up clock and eliminate some quick score opportunities. I expect both defensive lines, and especially the Bears' Peppers to show up ready to play after getting some negative press. The Bears offense is pathetic according to the advanced stats and I don't expect them to all of sudden and play well on Monday night, especially after historically tanking on MNF under Lovie. The majority of all bets will come in on the over, but I suspect this one closes at 47 or less and I'm taking the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Raiders (+5.5) 1x (Locked)

I wish I would have gotten on this earlier in the week, but I just don't have time to cap all of these games so early in the week. Nevertheless, I'm not too worried as I would not be surprised to see the Raiders win this one straight up. The Raiders may have the most explosive rushing attack in the league against an improved but still very weak Houston rush defense which is actually ranked 30th in league against the rush in DVOA efficiency rankings. Oakland's defense is not that great either, however, without Andre Johnson in the lineup for Houston, I think this will allow Oakland to focus in on Foster in order to limit the effectiveness of Houston's rushing attack and make Houston a one dimensional team. Finally, Oakland may be the best situational play on the board with the Al Davis death providing a strong motivational angle and this game coming at a big letdown point in the schedule for Houston with them having beaten the Steelers last week and scheduled to play the Ravens next week. Last week, Oakland lost to the Patriots because of multiple turnovers within NE's 10 yard line (which btw screwed us cashing on the over in that game). Although Houston's defense is improved, I think Campbell limits the turnovers and McFadden and Co. run wild today. I'm rolling with the Raiders for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Jets/Patriots over (50) 1x (Locked)

This number is still available but starting to go up...so if you like this play, you should get on it now. Bottom line is that the Jets defense, even though still highly ranked in the advanced efficiency stats, is susceptible to the big play as shown in the last two weeks by the Ravens and Oakland. Today, they will be facing Tom Brady and the Pats ultra-effiecient and powerful offense. Bottom line is that the Pats are going to get you a minimum of 4 touchdowns week in and week out. The question is if they will score more. I'm not so sure they will today, but I expect a much better showing from the Jets offense against a weak NE defense than they showed against the Ravens last week. I almost want to back the Jets today on the side, but I missed the +10's that were out there earlier in the week and I think a play on the over is the better alternative. The Jets should be an active dog today and I expect them to score at least three touchdowns against NE. Both teams should be able to move the ball today and make no mistake that both coaches will have their teams fired up and ready to go today. I think some might expect a defensive showing because both Belicheck and Ryan are defensive guys. However, in this game, offense will rule and I expect a final score in the 31-24 range. I'm rolling with the over in this spot for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Bengals/Jaguars under (37) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to get 38 but it just never materialized and one of locals moved to 36.5, so I'm locking this one in now right on the key number of 37. Bottom line is that you have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses led by rookie quarterbacks. That, to me, is the key. I expect both coaches to try to move the ball on the ground with Benson and Jones-Drew as their only true offensive weapons on this team. This should be a ball-control smash-mouth game and I'm hoping we see a punt fest. As long as we don't see any pick-6's, fumbles returns for TD's or kick return TD's, we should cash this one. I expect a 17-10 type score and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Packers (-5.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm locking this in now because I think it closes around 7 and I will be safe if I decide to buy out or shoot for a middle later. While I was able to run this one through my model, I have not had a chance to full cap this game and I want to preserve a possible play on the Packers at a line that would cover the key number of 6. The Packers are a machine...no doubt about it. I have them set at -7 even with the Falcons' considerable home field advantage. I won't bother with the stats because everyone knows how good the Pack is right now....I just don't see them losing today. However, the Falcons are a great home team and have revenge on the mind, so I could see them losing this game in the 6 point range. I want to look at this one a bit more throughout the day and either let it ride or buy out with a possible middle opportunity later. I just don't see this one going back down to 5, so we should be pretty safe in this approach. For now, I'm taking the Packers for 1x with a possible buy-out on the mind for later. Good luck.

No buy-out....I'm going to let the Packers ride. They are the better team. This is the squarest play on the board and all the situational angles scream Atlanta. 99% of the time, I would take Atlanta in this spot. However, something tells me the Packers roll. If I lose, I lose...Let's roll!!!

[Redscot]

No buy-out....I'm going to let the Packers ride. They are the better team. This is the squarest play on the board and all the situational angles scream Atlanta. 99% of the time, I would take Atlanta in this spot. However, something tells me the Packers roll. If I lose, I lose...Let's roll!!!

It's been a good day, albeit a stressful one , this one should be a barn burner (god I love all these emotes) On the Cheese with ya, hoping it's a high scoring game.

[Love The Action]

It's been a good day, albeit a stressful one , this one should be a barn burner (god I love all these emotes) On the Cheese with ya, hoping it's a high scoring game.

Yeah...good day so far with a poor start to tonight's game...looks like I should have bought out and went for the middle. Oh well...maybe we'll get lucky...there's a lot of game left.

Going to start working on tomorrow's baseball card and NFL for next week. I've already finished capping one game for next week that I started working on right after the noon games were over. I think I'm going to roll with a 2x-3x total if the number stays where it's at right now until tomorrow around late morning tomorrow when my locals open up next week's action.

I'm going to work my ass off this week to have a rebound Saturday in NCAAF and keep the NFL momentum rolling. Still gotta stay consistent in MLB through the end. Lotta of work to do...good luck tonight.

[Love The Action]

Nice...

[Redscot]

Nice...

Good conclusion to a roller coaster weekend .

Been wanting to jump in on Breaking Bad, but am so far behind, want to catch it from the start and watch it through......season to season. Night all

[Krazymojo]

6-2 for myself today still havent locked anything in for tomorrow I really like the Bears + the points but I want 6 should have locked it in earlier but couldn't pull the trigger.....I need Walter White for my gunsman

[Krazymojo]

o/u on mnf for me is 57 should i take now or wait or not play at all?

[Love The Action]

Good conclusion to a roller coaster weekend .

Been wanting to jump in on Breaking Bad, but am so far behind, want to catch it from the start and watch it through......season to season. Night all

Yeah, you definitely want to do it from the start. I recommend doing it the way my wife and I got caught up on Dexter. Just rent the season from Netflix and watch episodes when you have some time. Dexter was so good that we go through all five seasons in like a three weeks. However, Breaking Bad is even better. You will love it. I have a feeling you could related to Mr. White....

This would've been an awesome week if not for NCAAF...or if we could have at least broke even in NCAAF. I promise much better results from NCAAF next weekend...

[Love The Action]

o/u on mnf for me is 57 should i take now or wait or not play at all?

If you can get 57, I would bet the house on the under

I'm assuming that's a typo though and you meant 47. As of now, there's been some solid RLM on the under dropping it to 47 from when I got it at 48.5. Although I want it to keep going down, and even though Pinny and 5D are both juicing the under at 47 which indicates a possible move is on its way, I sort of think you will see some movement on the over bringing it back up a touch tomorrow. Try to get at least 47.5 so you win on a final score of 47. However, if it goes below 47, that's a no play. Remember my friend...key numbers are your friend and you generally should not cross them. Remember that Monday night game last week?

[Krazymojo]

ya thats why I asked for your opinion im too much of a fish to really make the decision by myself but with your input i can pull the trigger haha

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 5 Recap (Not including MNF play on Chi/Det under (48.5) for 1x)

5 - 1 = +4.4x

We have had a solid NFL weekend so far after having beaten the closer in each play except the SD/Den over closed at 47 and Cincy/Jax under 37 which both equaled the closing number. Otherwise, we bought the Eagles/Bills over at 49 and that one closed at 53, we bought the Raiders at +5.5 and they closed at +4.5, we bought the Packers at -5.5 and they closed at -6 or 6.5 and we bought the Pats/Jets over at 50 and that one closed at 50.5. As long as we are spotting good value and beating the closing number as we have done all year, the results will come. That's exactly what's starting to happen...

NFL 2011-2012 Season

23 - 19 = +3x

Let's cash this MNF Bears under for a big NFL weekend! Good luck

[PhillyUnionCC]

Who do ya got winning this MNF game? Im really leaning DET -5.5

[Love The Action]

Play #3

Bears/Lions under (48.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm risking that this one does not go up further, however, I think this is the best number that will be available on this game. I have this one at 45 and like this one as long as you can at least get the key number of 47. I understand the Lions offense is unstoppable right now with Megatron, but one of the cornerbacks who has given him the most problems in his career has been Charles Tillman. The Bears have traditionally been able to contain him as much as a mere mortal can. I suspect this one will be a defensive struggle and end in the 24-17 range. The Lions defense is just as fear imposing as their offense and that defensive line should kill Cutler. I really don't see the Bears receivers being able to do too much because Cutler is not going to have enough time to throw the ball. We cashed on the Bears/Saints under and the Bears/Packers under for the same reasons. You have an inflated line because of the opposing offense. However, the Bears defense should be able to employ their classic bend but don't break defense and keep Detroit out of the end zone a bit more than Dallas did. I expect the Bears and Martz to actually build upon their running game success and try to keep that dangerous Lions offense off the field. This will chew up clock and eliminate some quick score opportunities. I expect both defensive lines, and especially the Bears' Peppers to show up ready to play after getting some negative press. The Bears offense is pathetic according to the advanced stats and I don't expect them to all of sudden and play well on Monday night, especially after historically tanking on MNF under Lovie. The majority of all bets will come in on the over, but I suspect this one closes at 47 or less and I'm taking the under for 1x. Good luck.

Here's my only play for Monday night football that we locked in earlier in the week. No play for me on the side. I have the Lions at -6 so I think the books' number of -5.5 is pretty accurate. I love the under though....good luck

[Krazymojo]

Im grabbing these right now for next week Bills +3 and Bills/Giants Over 49.5

[blackeyeshamus]

congratulations, LTA.
cashed the raiders for 5x myself-
gave it back on the buccaneers (what the f@#k was I thinking?)-
and then hit a four dollar tease: ATL +13 UNDER 61 wooohooo!
winning weeks! good luck tomorrow night!

[Krazymojo]

I honestly think the Lions are over-rated yes they have the best receiver in the league but a 2 man show can't win you every game.