LTA's NFL PLays

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-09-11, 11:27 AM

Saints defense is still weak at linebacker and secondary is suspect. I fully expect the panthers to be able to run and pass. The saints of course will get theirs too. I see a shootout. My only concern is the line opened at 52 and has since dropped. I played it at 52 expecting a rise, and am confident. I think it returns to the opener atleast by kickoff.

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NFL 2011 Week 5

Play #1

Chargers/Broncos over (47) 1x (Locked)

I think this game finally allows us to see the full range of the Chargers offense, from the running game to the passing game. The Chargers are an interesting team because they have the ability to put up 28 points every time they touch the field, but inconsistency holds them back. In this game, I think you see them finally put together a nice performance on the road. Mile high is hard place to play, however, Denver's defense does not have the horses to stop this efficient Charger attack. If you look the advanced stat DAVE projections, the SD offense is projected to be around the 5th best offense in the league. That means they should start hitting their strides relatively soon and I think that starts in Week 5. On the other side, Denver will get you three touchdowns and I think that is the case at home this week. The Charger defense itself has been very inconsistent and I don't expect this to be a defensive intensity type game. I think we see some early scores which leads to a one dimensional Denver pass attack that gets some late meaningless points. I have this game at 51, so we're getting over a fg in value and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Eagles/Bills over (49) 1.5x (Locked)

I wanted to get 48 on this one but it never materialized and only started going up. Most outlets are at 49.5 and 50, so I when I saw 49 available I had to jump on it. This should be a good old fashioned shootout, especially when we get to the 4th quarter. Both qb's can run the 2 minute offense to perfection and find those open seam rights down the hashes. There is no secret that both defenses are struggling right now, while the offenses are firing but still have room for improvement. As always, the Vick factor helps the Eagles get some undeserved first downs and creates another indefensible option at the goal line. I just don't see the Bills defense able to stop the Eagles. On the other side, the Eagles have had nothing but problems defensively and this high flying Bills attack should only add to those woes. I like this number and have this game at 53, therefore I'm rolling with the over for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bears/Lions under (48.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm risking that this one does not go up further, however, I think this is the best number that will be available on this game. I have this one at 45 and like this one as long as you can at least get the key number of 47. I understand the Lions offense is unstoppable right now with Megatron, but one of the cornerbacks who has given him the most problems in his career has been Charles Tillman. The Bears have traditionally been able to contain him as much as a mere mortal can. I suspect this one will be a defensive struggle and end in the 24-17 range. The Lions defense is just as fear imposing as their offense and that defensive line should kill Cutler. I really don't see the Bears receivers being able to do too much because Cutler is not going to have enough time to throw the ball. We cashed on the Bears/Saints under and the Bears/Packers under for the same reasons. You have an inflated line because of the opposing offense. However, the Bears defense should be able to employ their classic bend but don't break defense and keep Detroit out of the end zone a bit more than Dallas did. I expect the Bears and Martz to actually build upon their running game success and try to keep that dangerous Lions offense off the field. This will chew up clock and eliminate some quick score opportunities. I expect both defensive lines, and especially the Bears' Peppers to show up ready to play after getting some negative press. The Bears offense is pathetic according to the advanced stats and I don't expect them to all of sudden and play well on Monday night, especially after historically tanking on MNF under Lovie. The majority of all bets will come in on the over, but I suspect this one closes at 47 or less and I'm taking the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Raiders (+5.5) 1x (Locked)

I wish I would have gotten on this earlier in the week, but I just don't have time to cap all of these games so early in the week. Nevertheless, I'm not too worried as I would not be surprised to see the Raiders win this one straight up. The Raiders may have the most explosive rushing attack in the league against an improved but still very weak Houston rush defense which is actually ranked 30th in league against the rush in DVOA efficiency rankings. Oakland's defense is not that great either, however, without Andre Johnson in the lineup for Houston, I think this will allow Oakland to focus in on Foster in order to limit the effectiveness of Houston's rushing attack and make Houston a one dimensional team. Finally, Oakland may be the best situational play on the board with the Al Davis death providing a strong motivational angle and this game coming at a big letdown point in the schedule for Houston with them having beaten the Steelers last week and scheduled to play the Ravens next week. Last week, Oakland lost to the Patriots because of multiple turnovers within NE's 10 yard line (which btw screwed us cashing on the over in that game). Although Houston's defense is improved, I think Campbell limits the turnovers and McFadden and Co. run wild today. I'm rolling with the Raiders for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Jets/Patriots over (50) 1x (Locked)

This number is still available but starting to go up...so if you like this play, you should get on it now. Bottom line is that the Jets defense, even though still highly ranked in the advanced efficiency stats, is susceptible to the big play as shown in the last two weeks by the Ravens and Oakland. Today, they will be facing Tom Brady and the Pats ultra-effiecient and powerful offense. Bottom line is that the Pats are going to get you a minimum of 4 touchdowns week in and week out. The question is if they will score more. I'm not so sure they will today, but I expect a much better showing from the Jets offense against a weak NE defense than they showed against the Ravens last week. I almost want to back the Jets today on the side, but I missed the +10's that were out there earlier in the week and I think a play on the over is the better alternative. The Jets should be an active dog today and I expect them to score at least three touchdowns against NE. Both teams should be able to move the ball today and make no mistake that both coaches will have their teams fired up and ready to go today. I think some might expect a defensive showing because both Belicheck and Ryan are defensive guys. However, in this game, offense will rule and I expect a final score in the 31-24 range. I'm rolling with the over in this spot for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Bengals/Jaguars under (37) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to get 38 but it just never materialized and one of locals moved to 36.5, so I'm locking this one in now right on the key number of 37. Bottom line is that you have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses led by rookie quarterbacks. That, to me, is the key. I expect both coaches to try to move the ball on the ground with Benson and Jones-Drew as their only true offensive weapons on this team. This should be a ball-control smash-mouth game and I'm hoping we see a punt fest. As long as we don't see any pick-6's, fumbles returns for TD's or kick return TD's, we should cash this one. I expect a 17-10 type score and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Packers (-5.5) 1x (Locked) (Possible buy-out later)

I'm locking this in now because I think it closes around 7 and I will be safe if I decide to buy out or shoot for a middle later. While I was able to run this one through my model, I have not had a chance to full cap this game and I want to preserve a possible play on the Packers at a line that would cover the key number of 6. The Packers are a machine...no doubt about it. I have them set at -7 even with the Falcons' considerable home field advantage. I won't bother with the stats because everyone knows how good the Pack is right now....I just don't see them losing today. However, the Falcons are a great home team and have revenge on the mind, so I could see them losing this game in the 6 point range. I want to look at this one a bit more throughout the day and either let it ride or buy out with a possible middle opportunity later. I just don't see this one going back down to 5, so we should be pretty safe in this approach. For now, I'm taking the Packers for 1x with a possible buy-out on the mind for later. Good luck.

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-09-11, 11:50 AM

What u think about jets?

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 11:52 AM

For you guys asking about that NO/Carolina game, I have that one right at 51 so I don't really see too much value. That wouldn't keep me from taking a game, if I saw some other factors that would make this a +ev play in my mind, however, I think there are too many question marks to pull the trigger on that one.

NO runs a very tricky defense with multiple blitz packages which could confuse Newton. While that also plays into Newton's hands to some extent because of his mobility and natural ability to scramble and find the open guy, I'm still not sold they will rely on the pass. Ron Rivera is a defensive guy and knows the best way to slow NO is to keep them off the field. I expect a ball control approach from Carolina today. Plus, this is a good letdown spot on a slow field for NO...not necessarily a letdown with respect to a loss, but more from a points perspective. I would not be surprised to see a game like they played against Jax last week. Perhaps the Saints win 27-21...that type of score would not surprise me.

In my mind, there's just not enough there to take the over in this game. I will, however, be rooting for you guys if you took it or will take it. I hope you all cash

**kingsr** · 10-09-11, 11:52 AM

It's 5.5 on pinnacle

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by Donnie Brasco

What u think about jets?

I like the Jets at +9 or more...I don't think I could take them below that...

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 12:46 PM

Wow...Andy Dalton is really screwing up this under play. First, he connects with AJ Green on a 40-yard miracle td on 3rd and 18 from mid-field. Then, he throws a pick on his own 20 yard line which Jax ends up converting to FG. Come on Andy...help me out here and just hand the ball off...

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 12:48 PM

I wonder if the Vikings will blow their 28 point first quarter lead

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-09-11, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by kingsr

It's 5.5 on pinnacle

Yeah, i was looking at pats noy pack. My bad!

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-09-11, 12:51 PM

I have peterson on my fantasy team, almost traded this week. 3 tds!

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-09-11, 12:52 PM

That has to be a record

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-09-11, 01:10 PM

My bills are rolling. Started fitzy today as well over stafford!

**cloggedup** · 10-09-11, 01:28 PM

agree effffen dalton!!!!!!

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-09-11, 01:32 PM

Why did carolina just call timeout?!?!?

**Redscot** · 10-09-11, 01:59 PM

So what is all the riff-raff up to today? Happy gobble gobble day you crazy Canooks

.

You end up jumping on that Saints over Donnie? Looking good so far, I am on it as well.

Buffalo game looking good, Raiders should keep battling, Cincy game is starting to bog down like you expected, hopefully they can keep it up.

Got me a little M/L parlay/lotto for fun (10$) Raiders/Seahawks/Jets that pays 52/1

**Krazymojo** · 10-09-11, 02:01 PM

i took it lol and saints -6.5

**Redscot** · 10-09-11, 02:07 PM

Why am I enjoying the Eagles losing so much

, Buffalo is in Jets division I should be pissed. Every time I see the Eagles I start thinking of Lebron "not 5....not 6.......not 7"

Dream team my ass. Things gotta be pretty damn miserable in Philly right now with the Phillies going out the other day. Philadelphia fans ain't exactly the cheeriest bunch to begin with

.

(This coming from a Mets/Knicks/Jets fan...I shouldn't be talking shiznit)

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-09-11, 02:17 PM

Yep i am on saints over and carolina. Could be a good day!

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 02:24 PM

You guys are looking great on that Saints/Carolina over. I am really surprised by the aggressiveness of the Panther offense. They don't hold anything back or play conservatively at all. I need to adjust some of my offensive ratings for this team. I've watched a large portion of this game and Newton is really an impressive player...especially for a rookie. Not trying to jinx you guys, but it sure looks like easy money for ya...

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-09-11, 02:33 PM

Jets are +9 -130 now at 5d, very tempted.

**Redscot** · 10-09-11, 02:33 PM

Gabbert

Come on Jax run out this clock.

**Redscot** · 10-09-11, 02:41 PM

Now Manning gets a gift TD to Cruz.........

**Krazymojo** · 10-09-11, 02:47 PM

lol i saw that hahaha and I can't trust the Jets Brady at Home i can get it for -7.5 really want 7 but might take the 7.5

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 02:53 PM

I think every single first half over cashed so far and most game overs. Cashing an under is so rare these days. Hopefully, we can hit one of those rare under winners tomorrow night....

**No coincidences** · 10-09-11, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I think every single first half over cashed so far and most game overs. Cashing an under is so rare these days. Hopefully, we can hit one of those rare under winners tomorrow night....

Are the books ever going to adjust?

I don't even bother looking at totals anymore. I used to play them, but ignore them now. I like betting unders -- hate waiting around for points. Doesn't seem to be a problem anymore in the Arena, err, NFL.

**Krazymojo** · 10-09-11, 03:06 PM

Chargers/Broncos went up lol

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-09-11, 03:24 PM

I took jets +9, gl all! Lets get this over also!

**Redscot** · 10-09-11, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

So what is all the riff-raff up to today? Happy gobble gobble day you crazy Canooks

.

You end up jumping on that Saints over Donnie? Looking good so far, I am on it as well.

Buffalo game looking good, Raiders should keep battling, Cincy game is starting to bog down like you expected, hopefully they can keep it up.

Got me a little M/L parlay/lotto for fun (10$) Raiders/Seahawks/Jets that pays 52/1

Donnie! I need the Jets too, but they have to win outright. To top it off they are my team...I try so hard not to bet them so I can just enjoy the game.....things could get ugly in the Red household this afternoon

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Donnie! I need the Jets too, but they have to win outright. To top it off they are my team...I try so hard not to bet them so I can just enjoy the game.....things could get ugly in the Red household this afternoon

We all need the Jets...I need them to score and you guys need them to win/cover. Unfortunately, they do not look good. I do not like the look on Sanchez's face...this is different than last year. I think he may have lost some confidence. Worried about the over...

SD/Denver game should be 14-7 right now instead of 6-7...SD is just so pathetic in the red zone. They can't convert a TD to save their lives right now. I really need them to break out of this scoring funk against a defense they should handle.

**Redscot** · 10-09-11, 03:57 PM

Jets have come out all sorts of undisciplined today, stupid penalties galore. We should be down more by this point........ rivalry game though......we're gonna need a big turnover or special teams play..... I think this one gets decided in the final 5 minutes of game, or maybe that's just a hope

.

**Redscot** · 10-09-11, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

We all need the Jets...I need them to score and you guys need them to win/cover. Unfortunately, they do not look good. I do not like the look on Sanchez's face...this is different than last year. I think he may have lost some confidence. Worried about the over...

SD/Denver game should be 14-7 right now instead of 6-7...SD is just so pathetic in the red zone. They can't convert a TD to save their lives right now. I really need them to break out of this scoring funk against a defense they should handle.

I think the Denver game loosens up a little, not overly concerned about that over. Sanchez will surprise, he has a lot more gumption than one thinks looking at him, he tends to wear his emotions on his sleeve. He has made big plays in games much bigger than this one already in his career. Conner and Holmes have drops already that have killed drives.

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 04:03 PM

The Jet's need to open this up and just start throwing it deep...Pats secondary is reeling...come on!

**Redscot** · 10-09-11, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

The Jet's need to open this up and just start throwing it deep...Pats secondary is reeling...come on!

First they gotta soften them up to the body and get Sanchez some time.......

**Krazymojo** · 10-09-11, 04:18 PM

they wanna keep brady off the field seems like they gonna run it a lot

**Krazymojo** · 10-09-11, 04:20 PM

Hopefully chargers get to 20 by the end of the half