2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

**BrokeLiving** · 11-17-11, 09:54 PM

Well, not only a really boring game, but not even a quarter of the way to the number at the half way point

**BeardedTaco** · 11-17-11, 09:56 PM

yeah we needed that runback to be a TD!

**illios** · 11-17-11, 09:58 PM

Lol Im bad luck. When I follow he loses fail

**John Ryan** · 11-17-11, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by illios

Lol Im bad luck. When I follow he loses fail

no such thing and I know you are only kidding. But, this is not what I expected at all. In a game like this there is no need to add even more financial risk when the game, like this one, can play out in so many different ways. See you all tomorrow with a card that I really do like this week. The past several weeks, we have been treading water - like a plateau - and this is usually the time that the next winning leg would start. There is no hope that in successful sports betting, so I will keep 'plodding' along and over time we will continue to make money.

**Mully85** · 11-17-11, 11:47 PM

BRONCOS!!!!!!

**illios** · 11-18-11, 01:37 AM

Originally posted by John Ryan

no such thing and I know you are only kidding. But, this is not what I expected at all. In a game like this there is no need to add even more financial risk when the game, like this one, can play out in so many different ways. See you all tomorrow with a card that I really do like this week. The past several weeks, we have been treading water - like a plateau - and this is usually the time that the next winning leg would start. There is no hope that in successful sports betting, so I will keep 'plodding' along and over time we will continue to make money.

Lol I'm not even joking! The last 9 picks, I've only got 1 right. I actually wasn't even going to bet this game since it seemed very hard to me! But saw your 5* so I was like hey! Might as well. Good thing I went small though! Hopefully you bounce back this weekend! Good luck!

**ghislaine** · 11-18-11, 05:03 AM

same sentiment

very excited about the weekend, I am in need for some bank recovery as well !!
looking forward to Your picks and analysis John

**rexieboy** · 11-18-11, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by John Ryan

To everyone: Excellent research and discussion of your opinions. really great.

I am going to go with the 'over' for a 5* graded play with a current line at 40, -110... most places are less than -110, but let's mark this one down with a -110 vig. There is a possibility it could drop to 39 1/2 so if you can work and order at that price give it a shot. I don't think there is any risk at missing 40 as the majority of the flows are betting Jets and 'under'

IF, and I emphasize IF (laugh) I was going to play a parlay/teaser take the Broncos plus the 7 1/2 and the 'over'. I don't like a teaser play as I think this game will work one of two ways and the expected score is not all that close at the end of the game. Modest probabilities that the game is won by either team by 14 or more points. Obviously, there is a greater probability that the Jets win by 14 then Denver.

In addition, if you like Denver consider making a combination bet using 3.5 stars with the points and a 1.5 star on the money line.

I have to admit that if it ends up being a blowout, common sense, tells us it is the Jets and if it is blowout then I can see the Jets scoring 35 points on their own merit. This implies that we need Denver to score just two FG to get the 'over' win. If Denver is competitive then I do expect an outcome where the total could win by the end of third quarter.

Thanks for inspiring me to take Denver on the Moneyline. I also had them +20 and Under 53-1/2 on a 4 way teaser. For the record, my other two on that bet are GB-1 and Dallas +5. I like my chances! Looking forward to seeing you pix for Sunday. Best regards ...

**msj0001** · 11-18-11, 02:39 PM

TEEEEBOOOOOOW what a drive

**John Ryan** · 11-19-11, 01:06 PM

Ok. TWO 5* College Hoops Plays today ON Belmont and on Old Dominion and the reports on the fron page of the CBB portion of the web site.

I have included by 5* College Football Plays plays as well with reports also found on the web site. Thanks

5* Southern Cal over Oregon and 2* using the Money line
5* LSU over Mississippi
5* Oklahoma over Baylor
5* Penn State over Ohio State with 2* on the Money Line
5* Missouri over Texas Tech

**John Ryan** · 11-19-11, 01:08 PM

NFL 5* Titans will be forthcoming. Each week there is more and more work and research. Injuries pile up, depth charts change and that is just the beginning. stay tuned. In the meantime visit the CBB thread. I have included though the Saturday 5* graded plays and the reports are found on the site. Thanks

Ok. TWO 5* College Hoops Plays today ON Belmont and on Old Dominion and the reports on the front page of the CBB portion of the web site.

I have included by 5* College Football Plays plays as well with reports also found on the web site. Thanks

5* Southern Cal over Oregon and 2* using the Money line
5* LSU over Mississippi
5* Oklahoma over Baylor
5* Penn State over Ohio State with 2* on the Money Line
5* Missouri over Texas Tech

College Hoops
5* Belmont over Towson State
5* Old Dominion over South Florida

**crissthor** · 11-19-11, 01:21 PM

John, to understand well - if you write LSU over Missisipi it means that LSU win? Or just over in that match? Sorry for that simple question, but always better to know clear when you want to put some money

**illios** · 11-19-11, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by crissthor

John, to understand well - if you write LSU over Missisipi it means that LSU win? Or just over in that match? Sorry for that simple question, but always better to know clear when you want to put some money

Pretty sure it means LSU will cover the spread. If its totals he usually puts the word total in there somewhere

**thortada** · 11-19-11, 02:54 PM

that means to take LSU with the spread, not the 'over'

**crissthor** · 11-19-11, 03:13 PM

Ok, thank you !! Understand that they should cover the spread (in my bookmaker it's handicap) , but the lines could be different in different bookmakers, am i wrong? For example i bet in bet365 and there is line -32 for LSU. So i should take that line, right? and all the lines for all picks what John listed?

**chopperocker** · 11-19-11, 05:13 PM

question for John Ryan -

NFL teams off a season in which they recorded 5 or more ATS Home Fav wins are 96-126-3 ATS in the same role the following season since start of '06 season. do you think there is any value in this type of trend ?

**rexieboy** · 11-19-11, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

Ok. TWO 5* College Hoops Plays today ON Belmont and on Old Dominion and the reports on the fron page of the CBB portion of the web site.

I have included by 5* College Football Plays plays as well with reports also found on the web site. Thanks

5* Southern Cal over Oregon and 2* using the Money line
5* LSU over Mississippi
5* Oklahoma over Baylor
5* Penn State over Ohio State with 2* on the Money Line
5* Missouri over Texas Tech

Thanks for the 2 bb picks. I bet both individually and bet the parlay as well. And thanks for Penn St.

Best regards ....

**John Ryan** · 11-19-11, 07:17 PM

Ryan's NFL Sunday 5* Plays

Dallas -7 -110 for 5* play
San Fran -10 -110 over Arizona
Tennessee +6 -101 over Atlanta

Analysis will be forthcoming around 7 AM.

**John Ryan** · 11-19-11, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by chopperocker

question for John Ryan -

NFL teams off a season in which they recorded 5 or more ATS Home Fav wins are 96-126-3 ATS in the same role the following season since start of '06 season. do you think there is any value in this type of trend ?

Not really... cycles in the NFL generally run about five years with trends like these. Since it is nto hitting a high percentage, but units won is probably fairy strong, I would stick with it for the final week sof this season and then reevaluate after the season is over. Thanks for the question.

**jjaycuny** · 11-19-11, 07:26 PM

Thanks for the picks John

**sneak-a-peak** · 11-19-11, 07:30 PM

john what do you think about jac @ cle and phi @ nyg?

the jags and browns are equally bad but I think one big factor is the browns being home for 2 straight weeks meanwhile jags traveling 2 straight.......

and the g-men cant possibly let vince young and gang beat them on their own turf this time of year right?????

**John Ryan** · 11-19-11, 07:31 PM

NFL is now 25-15 ATS for 5* plays and 2-1 ATS with 10* plays and 1-1 with 20* plays.

Some of you sent private messages to me asking how I factor in the Seattle Money line winner and Arizona, who upset the Eagles as 14 point dogs using the Money line. They are NOT included in the records and are offered only for your OPTIONAL consideration. I am glad they worked out and ir is always nice to look in hindsight and think ' Man I wish I had parlayed Seattle and Arizona and then Denver Monday using the Money lines. The other non-record winner was a suggestion to bet New England. I will certainly continue to provide some plays that I do feel strongly about from time to time , like NE and Denver, but only the plays I have graded 5, 10, and 20* will get counted on the record. Thanks for all of the support and great exchange of handicapping techniques, opinions, and research.

**John Ryan** · 11-19-11, 07:32 PM

Originally posted by jjaycuny

Thanks for the picks John

No problem and I appreciate all of your posts.

**John Ryan** · 11-19-11, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by sneak-a-peak

john what do you think about jac @ cle and phi @ nyg?

the jags and browns are equally bad but I think one big factor is the browns being home for 2 straight weeks meanwhile jags traveling 2 straight.......

and the g-men cant possibly let vince young and gang beat them on their own turf this time of year right?????

I think the Brown sare the right side... I just don't have enough substance to put my money on them because of the horrific offensive execution. JAX can play excellent defense. However, the 'over' did come close to being a graded play for this game. Thanks

And I would stay far, far , far away from the Giants/Eagles game. If there was ever a no-play game, it is this one this eek, in my opinion. Impossible to handicap, how the Eagles will respond and it is near difficult to determine how the Giants will play coming New England the West Coast loss to the 49ers. Common sense says Giants in a blowout, but rarely has common sense made a man rich in the NFL sports wagering.

**sweethook** · 11-19-11, 11:39 PM

nice work you doing john , gl

**TheSterNYK** · 11-20-11, 12:30 AM

john whats your take on the bengals vs ravens?

**Pat McCrotch** · 11-20-11, 04:40 AM

John id like to say thank you for all your hard work, you are a seriously good tipster, id personally say you are the best tipster on this forum by a mile.

your write ups are excellent and your record speaks for itself.

What I would like to know is do you actually bet ur picks? also do u make a profit over a season?

I know gambling is very difficult but u seem to be very clued up.

I like ur nfl picks but why do u think Dallas can be trusted to cover 7? I know they had a big score last week but I just have this doubt about them. They have let me down a few times this season.

thanks and I look forward to your reply.

**rockhardfister** · 11-20-11, 09:07 AM

Regarding the Tenn pick today, they are playing much better but really havent beaten anyone. Not sure I can trust them in this spot on the road against the 3rd ranked defense against the run. Chris Johnson is still runnng like crap and got most of his yards on a couple 4th quarter carries last week. Unless you are relying on ATL coaches to keep it close because they are so conservative?

**Sportsbetting123** · 11-20-11, 09:16 AM

Originally posted by John Ryan

I think the Brown sare the right side... I just don't have enough substance to put my money on them because of the horrific offensive execution. JAX can play excellent defense. However, the 'over' did come close to being a graded play for this game. Thanks

And I would stay far, far , far away from the Giants/Eagles game. If there was ever a no-play game, it is this one this eek, in my opinion. Impossible to handicap, how the Eagles will respond and it is near difficult to determine how the Giants will play coming New England the West Coast loss to the 49ers. Common sense says Giants in a blowout, but rarely has common sense made a man rich in the NFL sports wagering.

I think this is a great spot to pick the Giants, coming off of a road loss. My Eagles are in total disarray.

**hitman09** · 11-20-11, 09:51 AM

I pound Dallas and Tennessee hard this week. Washington is a dead team, and Tennessee had a good stats in their div, they are in good form now, Atlanta up and down will struggle, give away too much points.

Dallas and Tennessee $$$$$$$$$$

**John Ryan** · 11-20-11, 10:50 AM

5* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Washington Redskins set to start at 1:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by more seven points. Moreover, it projects high probabilities exceeding 85% that Dallas will score between 22 to 28 points and will gain between 5.5 and 6.0 net passing yards per attempt. In past gam,Esc where Washington’s defense allowed these measures, they have gone 0-1 ATS, 1-3 ATS spanning the past three seasons, and 17-46 ATS since 1992; They are just 0-1 ATS this week, 6-4 ATS the past three seasons, and a miserable 19-51 ATS since 1992. Dallas has produced a 3-1 ATS mark this season, 15-7 ATS the past three seasons, and 67-37 ATS since 1992 when they have gained six or more total yards per play. Washington does have the 12th ranked defense in the NFL despite how miserable the team has played this season. Dallas MUST maintain a balanced attack using a good mixture of run and pass plays on first downs. Dallas has a physical ground attack that is averaging 125.4 yards per game and is led by rookie running back DeMarco Murray, who is averaging 8.0 yards per carry. Dallas will also get back running back Felix Jones back for today’s game based on published reports and this adds an added feature for ball control pass plays that Washington will have to defend. The Washington offense is miserable averaging just 15.1 PPG and Dallas must guard against giving up the big play. That was the dominant reason they fell behind in their last loss in Philadelphia and you can bet that Dallas will have safety help over the top even on blitz plays. In fact, Dallas will use extra defenders in zone and underneath coverages instead of choosing to focus on pressure. I feel very confident that the Dallas defensive front can stop Washington’s running game and shot ball control pass plays without using pressure. Take Dallas.

**JR007** · 11-20-11, 10:55 AM

record is 23-20 on the 5 *

**spippen** · 11-20-11, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by JR007

record is 23-20 on the 5 *

John just posted 25-15 on 5*, how is there such a difference? John seems to have good record keeping, so this a surprise. Not saying you are wrong, but would need you to clarify as to your posting of 5* record 23-20. Thanks.

**jas19illini** · 11-20-11, 11:33 AM

John, any thoughts on the Buffalo/Miami game?

**Reno Gambler** · 11-20-11, 11:33 AM

Double O7,
Do you have a hard on for John?? You sure do like to bash this guy.