2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

[spike1519]

Are u an idiot??? anyone with a computer can copy and paste!
I talked to JR and I think he is being honest If you don't then stay out of this thread you CREEPER. Go stalk someone on Facebook.matter of fact start your own thread and make some picks...This dude has done nothing but hand out FREE WINNERs and not once asked anyone in this thread for a DOLLAR~ I saw his name out there and really just wanted too find out what was up. What he told me made alot of since..I am sure he would answer any ?????"s you have but I have a feeling your a DOUCHE and it wouldn't matter.So fade away Creeper.

there is another john ryan on another web site so i see where this is coming from, no biggie. The picture tells the story the other guy doesnt have the COOL glasses that our John is sportin lol g.g on tonights pick John. and no one ever needs to mess with a man's livelyhood. who cares what he does whatever he needs to do to get by we all do it. it's called freedom enjoy it! and bet on it! cause it's the only guaranteed pick there is. believe me I know!!!! 1st div. 4th marines! Thank and Honor a veteren on veterens day, only reason we can bet on sports is because of em!!! P.G.R .............spike.............. MFFM!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SEMPER FI.

[soonerstud7804]

from one Vet to another Happy Veterans Day 1st Armored Cav Regiment

[JR007]

whatever, ........here is a quote from someone who "mentored" me long before I came to sbr

"data mining, or more accurately defined as data dredging, runs rampant among handicappers. They try to find "trends", that are nothing more than mere randomness, and justify a bet based on nonsensical" noise", not only that, even if such randomness holds substance, they fail to quantify the true impact but rather premise a bet based on the aggregate of favorable trends,.. stats and trends are misleading, when not understanding the substance behind them. Data miners stop at "what," where in reality they should stop at "why" there will always be 'outliers' that lack correlation to future outcomes"

good luck boys...do not say I didn't warn you......

[Reno Gambler]

Happy Veterns'Day --Retired Navy Corpman 1981 to 2001. Hit big this weekend John

[soonerstud7804]

John I guess you are now a "DATA MINER" that's not too be confused with a "Chilean Miner" or the University of UTEP there just "Miners". You can't be a Coal Miners Daughter because that was Sissy Spacek, I really think your new nickname ought too be the John the DATA MINER RYAN He will mine some winners....JR007 would love too hear how you come up with you selections...

[John Ryan]

there is another john ryan on another web site so i see where this is coming from, no biggie. The picture tells the story the other guy doesnt have the COOL glasses that our John is sportin lol g.g on tonights pick John. and no one ever needs to mess with a man's livelyhood. who cares what he does whatever he needs to do to get by we all do it. it's called freedom enjoy it! and bet on it! cause it's the only guaranteed pick there is. believe me I know!!!! 1st div. 4th marines! Thank and Honor a veteren on veterens day, only reason we can bet on sports is because of em!!! P.G.R .............spike.............. MFFM!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SEMPER FI.

Hope you enjoyed your day Spike.. You deserve more than just a day to recognize your efforts. Proud to know you

[John Ryan]

Happy Veterns'Day --Retired Navy Corpman 1981 to 2001. Hit big this weekend John

Thanks. I hope you enjoyed your well deserved day. God Bless.

[John Ryan]

John I guess you are now a "DATA MINER" that's not too be confused with a "Chilean Miner" or the University of UTEP there just "Miners". You can't be a Coal Miners Daughter because that was Sissy Spacek, I really think your new nickname ought too be the John the DATA MINER RYAN He will mine some winners....JR007 would love too hear how you come up with you selections...

I want to have a window of time to really dealve into the what the neural net does for us. Why the simulator consistently produces positive returns and why sometimes we have some ugly losing streaks. Thanks

[John Ryan]

whatever, ........here is a quote from someone who "mentored" me long before I came to sbr

"data mining, or more accurately defined as data dredging, runs rampant among handicappers. They try to find "trends", that are nothing more than mere randomness, and justify a bet based on nonsensical" noise", not only that, even if such randomness holds substance, they fail to quantify the true impact but rather premise a bet based on the aggregate of favorable trends,.. stats and trends are misleading, when not understanding the substance behind them. Data miners stop at "what," where in reality they should stop at "why" there will always be 'outliers' that lack correlation to future outcomes"

good luck boys...do not say I didn't warn you......

You are partially right. I get the gradings from the sim and then I research the matchups; who does what well; who does what poorly; and analyze the game from a purely fundamental standpoint. If the fundamentals do not match the projections then there is a reduced grading or possibly no play at all.

You are right about the unpredictable intangibles. Don't take it wrong way, but thos turnovers and other unknowns is the reason I don't hit above 70% ATS. I do stand by my 18-years of proven experience and I am pleased that we are hitting above 60% ATS for the season.

Yes, it is quite possible I could end up on a horrid losing streak. I'll never deny that nor blow smoke up someone's &*&%^ stating that I can GUARANTEE winners. No one can, but again I think if you really watch the rest of the season unfold and then follow on the CBB and hopefully the NBA threads it will be well worth it.

[John Ryan]

The under is the play tonight. Norv Turner is going to get it done on the ground because the Raiders are not going to let Rivers beat them through the air. They will play a lot of nickle dime packages. Also since Carson Palmer and Rivers are both STRUGGLIN' - Both teams want to play a ball control game. Public is all over the over.

Nice call by the way. Although, I thought I was in good shape entering the fourth quarter, you proved to be correct. so Congrats.

[John Ryan]

Ok. here is pick number one up for discussion and I know some you will be shocked by the selection. It is very similar to that Rams upset win we had a few weeks back.

5* graded play on Seattle and I am considering adding a 2 1/2 star amount using the money line.

[JR007]

I have read your stuff in the past, not saying that one system is better than another, .........but the reality is certain variables are uncappable( ie turnovers)......even with a MOS (margin of safety ) built in ........to a model, I cannot see ( and again I belabor the point) how one game can be worth more than another, just do not see the logic "rooted" in that, for example, who would have thought the Rams would win outright against the Saints, ????......no system , that I have seen is infallible to streaks, which is a phenomenon , of betting.....I agree to disagree, I wish you luck,...... just giving a different perspective, .........you know how to win in NFL ???...do not bet it, other sports have softer lines

[PStrangers]

I have read your stuff in the past, not saying that one system is better than another, .........but the reality is certain variables are uncappable( ie turnovers)......even with a MOS (margin of safety ) built in ........to a model, I cannot see ( and again I belabor the point) how one game can be worth more than another, just do not see the logic "rooted" in that, for example, who would have thought the Rams would win outright against the Saints, ????......no system , that I have seen is infallible to streaks, which is a phenomenon , of betting.....I agree to disagree, I wish you luck,...... just giving a different perspective, .........you know how to win in NFL ???...do not bet it, other sports have softer lines

You believe that turnovers are uncappable? Perhaps that is why you don't get the NFL.

Turnovers or perhaps turnover ratio's are one of the biggest factors in covering the spread. And many great cappers are able to predict them or predict the lack of them. Bobby Smith is one of them. If you ever see his book pick it up, most of the book is worthless, but I always like the section on turnovers.

[JR007]

You believe that turnovers are uncappable? Perhaps that is why you don't get the NFL.

Turnovers or perhaps turnover ratio's are one of the biggest factors in covering the spread. And many great cappers are able to predict them or predict the lack of them. Bobby Smith is one of them. If you ever see his book pick it up, most of the book is worthless, but I always like the section on turnovers.

Bobby Smith from sports reporter ???? he just had a article out on this a month or so ago.....ok, he said turnovers are worth 4 points, .............what did I miss ???

[PStrangers]

Bobby Smith from sports reporter ???? he just had a article out on this a month or so ago.....ok, he said turnovers are worth 4 points, .............what did I miss ???

Maybe I am the one who is confused then. I thought you were saying that turnover were unpredictable/uncappable. I was just saying that many people, Bobby Smith from Sport Reporter just being an example, do indeed include turnovers in there handicapping.

Your point that the lines in others sports are softer I do agree with. But I believe that this is just from the shear amount of money bet on the NFL. The lines are sharp since most people who bet football are not too bad at it, so the lines are actually good. My only point was that you were saying that things in the NFL were unpredictable, and I disagree, I believe that many handicappers do indeed predict turnovers and I would be surprised if turnovers are not baked into the line.

[Swinging Johnson]

John "Crazy Legs" Ryan is da bomb. The guy eats numbers for breakfast. Right on John, keep on keepin' on baby!

And if you're looking for a far less cerebral approach to capping games, come visit me here http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football...picks-a-22011/ and listen to my podcast where I went 4-0 last week.

[spike1519]

This is the kind of stuff that has no end, everyone can find a stat or trend that backs up a play on either side of the game if a neural network does nothing more than narrow down the games to the ones that offer the opportunity to look at the game further then its a handy tool, it does alot more than that but lets not digress into this lets keep on point here were trying to win bet's and I personally value any input that is geared toward that end. We all have something to offer even if its just something that sparks an idea that leads us on a path to a win. I know JR has some very valid points and is a good capper. John is a good capper and different strokes for different folks is what makes these threads what they are instead of arguing technique lets give insight and advise about the picks! lol, like im NOT doin right now! all of our input towards the same goal cannot be a bad thing. Bol to all this weekend as for me I'm learning and having a great time and am alway's appreciative towards the hard work anyone puts into the conversation. This is Johns thread let's try to improve the picks not argue the tools used to get us there as they all have there merit! don't foget to enjoy the games there what brought us all to this point anyways ............spike.........

[spike1519]

Seahawks have one of the toughest Stadiums to go into and win there "12th" man atmosphere is incredible the crowd is a huge influence in there home games.
Seahawks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10 points.
Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog and This week there a 7 point dog at home against a 6-2 Baltimore club in the hunt for first place in the A.F.C north. Baltimore avg. 26 p.p.g and allows 16.2 p.p.g with a defense ranked in the top 4 of almost every stat there is. Seattle will definetly be counting on there 12th man to pull this one off against a high scoring offense and a very stingy defense. I lived in Seattle for many years and the crowd there cannot be under estimated as far as impact on a game. I've witnessed this first hand many times and left the stadium feeling like the crowd had totally threw the away teams offense into total dissaray, turnovers, delay of game penalties and quarterbacks are hard pressed to audible there at all. Don't know what this really adds up to but I would not be surprised if they cover at home on any Sunday. Bol on this one gang..........spike.........

[GGZOLA]

thats why cincy banged the living shitt out of them 2 weeks ago. 12th man my arse.

[spike1519]

thats why cincy banged the living shitt out of them 2 weeks ago. 12th man my arse.

It's a fact that the stadium is one of the most difficult ones for teams to go into. They practice the week prior with jet engines playing at huge decible levels over P.A system's just to prepare for it. I don't know if Seattle will cover or not but that kind of home field advantage is undeniable and well documented. I just read this, since 1997 theres been 107 games in the N.F.L where the road team was favored by 7 or more points. The record for this is 38-63-3 A 37% losing record however betting the home Team dog of 7 or more points has paid off nearly 63% of the time. Mind you this is ats. thought this was an interesting stat that seem's to fit this play! More recently just last year there were 10 games that fit this play and the home dog covered 8 out of 10 times with the home dog actually winning s.u 4 times. welcome to the thread!.......spike...........

[Letsplayfast]

what page are the week ten selections on for this thread?

[joeytunes]

Ok. here is pick number one up for discussion and I know some you will be shocked by the selection. It is very similar to that Rams upset win we had a few weeks back.

5* graded play on Seattle and I am considering adding a 2 1/2 star amount using the money line.

love the pick great spot for 12th man

[John Ryan]

5* play on Dallas

As I stated on the record two weeks ago, Dallas will win the NFC East. They arguably could win out their last nine games. Look at the schedule and I think you will agree that they will be favored in all, but the last gabe in New York against the Giants. That game may be for the divisional crown. Moreover, Buffalo is coming off a divisional game and it is always even more difficult playing on the road in this role. Moreover, Buffalo is a money burning 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons. Dallas will play strong run defense knowing that Buffalo must establish the running game first. They have been quite successful with Taylor, but he is dealing with a 'stinger' type of injury. These typs of injuries can become major problems with just one small hit. I do thing he will not be able to play at 85% and will get that injury dinged again.

[John Ryan]

Dallas is a solid 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. Here is a reliable and proven money making system that has gone 51-24 ATS since 1983. Play on home favorites that are solid teams outgaining opponents by 0.4 to 1 yards per play and after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game and now facing an average team posting a +/- 0.4 yards per play differential and after eight or more games.

[John Ryan]

Last, Turnovers are a major weighting in the model and perhaps I have been stating this correctly. You can't pick one single facet of the game of the football though and rely on that to win consistently over the course of the season. What I was stating is that turnovers can happen at the 50 yard line or on the teams' own 20 yard line. That si the part that is no a quantifiable factor. Turnovers in the red zone are death knells. One of my simple tools is to go against a team that enjoyed a +3 or greater turnover margin in the previous game. Now, that is just one factor. Just like I look for teams, who lost at home in overtime and were installed as favorites, especially double digit favorites. Hope this helps. I will end tonight with my opinion that handicapping the line of scrimmage (LOS) and, who will win those battles is far more important and reliable then turnovers. A strong dominance at the LOS can over come at least one turnover. Hope this helps.

[jjaycuny]

John, I put a future bet on Dallas to win NFC east at +2200 So i'm glad to hear you say that

[HappyWinner]

[QUOTE=John Ryan;12325623]5* play on Dallas

They have been quite successful with Taylor, but he is dealing with a 'stinger' type of injury.[/QUOTE

Who is Taylor?

[PassUrChipZ]

John u are right sports betting is all trends and stats. Nothing more nothing less. Fouls that don't think that like some of the people posting above are not successful. Keep up the good work the fact that u use zero emotion is why I enjoy your plays. Can't disagree with facts! And u do a good job bringing those forward. Good luck

[mhalkiadak]

sorry to burst your bubble but the giants win the nfc east.....and for the record....bills beat the cowgirls at home today

[Derty D]

Mr. Ryan,

I looked back a few pages in this thread, but could not find your ytd totals for 2011. To save me the time in searching and tabulating all the pages of picks and results, could you please re-print your totals for the year?

Thank you in advance,

Derty D

[John Ryan]

John u are right sports betting is all trends and stats. Nothing more nothing less. Fouls that don't think that like some of the people posting above are not successful. Keep up the good work the fact that u use zero emotion is why I enjoy your plays. Can't disagree with facts! And u do a good job bringing those forward. Good luck

Thanks.. non-emotional research is what has been a dominant reason I have done so well over a long time.

[John Ryan]

OK. Entering the week the record stands at 23-14 ATS with a 2-1 ATS record with 10* releases and 1-1 ATS record with 20* releases.

5* Dallas -5 points -110 over Buffalo
5* Seattle +7 -110 hosting Baltimore
5* Bengals +4 over the Steelers

Also, the Eagles DeShaun Jackson over slept and missed a team meeting and has been DEACTIVATED for today's game. This spells big trouble in the Eagles locker room that just did not start this past week. If possible, I like putting an optionals 2* money line play using Arizona and looking for quarterback Kolb to make his former fans sick in the stands. This is NOT a simulator play, but is a valid option for your consideration. College went 3-1 ATS yesterday for those that wanted to know.

Will be back for a 'late' game and also tonight's game.

[Just_Wynn_Baby]

OK. Entering the week the record stands at 23-14 ATS with a 2-1 ATS record with 10* releases and 1-1 ATS record with 20* releases.

5* Dallas -5 points -110 over Buffalo
5* Seattle +7 -110 hosting Baltimore
5* Bengals +4 over the Steelers

Also, the Eagles DeShaun Jackson over slept and missed a team meeting and has been DEACTIVATED for today's game. This spells big trouble in the Eagles locker room that just did not start this past week. If possible, I like putting an optionals 2* money line play using Arizona and looking for quarterback Kolb to make his former fans sick in the stands. This is NOT a simulator play, but is a valid option for your consideration. College went 3-1 ATS yesterday for those that wanted to know.

Will be back for a 'late' game and also tonight's game.

Thanks for the picks John, but one thing to note is that I've heard that Kolb is not starting today's game.

[JR007]

Mr. Ryan,

I looked back a few pages in this thread, but could not find your ytd totals for 2011. To save me the time in searching and tabulating all the pages of picks and results, could you please re-print your totals for the year?

Thank you in advance,

Derty D

yes, i was looking for this too......is this a combined record, for college and pros,

just like to know and I will move on ....Thanks,

[ZOLAS]

Thanks for picks John. I'm down, on them, and was down on your picks yesterday too. Kolb is not playing, does that change your view of the arizona optional play?

ZOLAS