2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

[spike1519]

ats records can be decieving, it's about ROI, if you win a 5 unit and lose a 10 unit, well, it's a loss of (money) what about those Pats second half bets, those aren't figured into the ats record ????....what constitutes a official play ?? when they are in "bold".....you lost ne 2nd half for 3 stars, and you" liked" under ne 23 with no rating........... posts" 1713 and "1715

I understand your frustration but come on I've seen you askin for picks before. and you know as well as the rest of us that askin for his R.O.I is rediculous you remember all the vig's on every bet you've made? was it +110 or -120 and add em up rediculous man! those halftime picks are suggestions to try to recoup it's the best advise hes got at the time It's not one of his official picks he's trying to do people like you and I a favor and help out. you gotta know that already get real! give the guy a break you can't tell me you havent made $ on his pick's and if you havent then its bad Money management on your part. No ones forcing you to bet! and to blame someone else is just about as cheesy as it get's. Keep up the great work John I guarantee almost all of us appreciate your work and the effort you put out. As for me thanks a ton I think your the Andy Beyer's of sports betting ......spike........MFFM

[adrenalinerush]

ats records can be decieving, it's about ROI, if you win a 5 unit and lose a 10 unit, well, it's a loss of (money) what about those Pats second half bets, those aren't figured into the ats record ????....what constitutes a official play ?? when they are in "bold".....you lost ne 2nd half for 3 stars, and you" liked" under ne 23 with no rating........... posts" 1713 and "1715

I think JR clearly states his won-loss record is on the 5, 10 and 20 star picks. Are the other plays "official" plays, and is the juice factored in to calculate a ROI? If he doesn't offer that then he doesn't offer it. Seems to me that he prefers to do his research, provide his angle via the write-ups, and to offer the information up to whomever chooses to use it. It's as simple as that. Tail if you choose, or fade if you choose. but if you have to have a detailed accounting of every pick and the net ROI then you should probably look elsewhere.

Just my 2 cents.

[fecgp40]

I think JR clearly states his won-loss record is on the 5, 10 and 20 star picks. Are the other plays "official" plays, and is the juice factored in to calculate a ROI? If he doesn't offer that then he doesn't offer it. Seems to me that he prefers to do his research, provide his angle via the write-ups, and to offer the information up to whomever chooses to use it. It's as simple as that. Tail if you choose, or fade if you choose. but if you have to have a detailed accounting of every pick and the net ROI then you should probably look elsewhere. Just my 2 cents.

[JR007]

I do not use his picks at all, I read what he has to say, I base my decisions on line moves.......but if you are going to post ats record
post how many units you are up or down.......it's all about profit or loss, that is why it is called gambling, it's all about credibility.....no one in here should be defensive because I bring out pertinent points...you cannot have it both ways, great when you win , but let's not overlook the losses..it's..reality,............. been doing this for 40 years...kinda know what I am talking about


my suggestion would be a spreadsheet, much like other posters use, then there is NO question
why would anyone have a objection to that

[John Ryan]

I understand your frustration but come on I've seen you askin for picks before. and you know as well as the rest of us that askin for his R.O.I is rediculous you remember all the vig's on every bet you've made? was it +110 or -120 and add em up rediculous man! those halftime picks are suggestions to try to recoup it's the best advise hes got at the time It's not one of his official picks he's trying to do people like you and I a favor and help out. you gotta know that already get real! give the guy a break you can't tell me you havent made $ on his pick's and if you havent then its bad Money management on your part. No ones forcing you to bet! and to blame someone else is just about as cheesy as it get's. Keep up the great work John I guarantee almost all of us appreciate your work and the effort you put out. As for me thanks a ton I think your the Andy Beyer's of sports betting ......spike........MFFM

Thanks for the support Spike... you know the ROI is higher than if we just did 5* plays because the 10* plays are 2-1 ATS. ROI is a nice tool. I found it far more useful when I was on Wall Street trading currencies for institutional accounts and central banks. Not a putdown, but you are right Spike, the 10 to 20% vig is difficult to determine and quantify. But, he has a good question about that. Keep in mind ROI is a direct function of how many plays too. You can be 5-0 ATS and you can be approx. 57-50 and you have the same monetary game, but vastly different ROI's. I think it is about UNITS WON quite frankly.

[John Ryan]

I do not use his picks at all, I read what he has to say, I base my decisions on line moves.......but if you are going to post ats record
post how many units you are up or down.......it's all about profit or loss, that is why it is called gambling, it's all about credibility.....no one in here should be defensive because I bring out pertinent points...you cannot have it both ways, great when you win , but let's not overlook the losses..it's..reality,............. been doing this for 40 years...kinda know what I am talking about


my suggestion would be a spreadsheet, much like other posters use, then there is NO question
why would anyone have a objection to that

I have posted the cumulative record each week several times - prior to the selection Sunday and then throughout the week leading up to the next week. I appreciate your comments. I am interested to know how you identify plays based on line movements. Thanks

[mbcoutinho]

Any plays for tonight, John?

[John Ryan]

tonight's game.. I have NO graded play for this game.. Nothing from the sim. complete neutrality.. the statistical disparity of outcome is quite wide. I have not seen one this wide in years. This simply means that there is an increased probability that the game will not be close and that one of these teams may win by 21 or more points. If you forced me, the Bears using the money line is the play to be made. Not trying to show or teach calculus hear, but the bottom line is this game line at 9 points has no wagering opportunity. The following comments though, will focus on both teams in order to help some of you who may have an opinion and a strong one at that

[CashMoney27]

i think im going to stay away from this one.... have a good one boys

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

Sooo your saying EAGLES/OVER! I knew I liked you after all John. lol

[John Ryan]

The Eagles ground game is exceptional from a statistical standpoint averaging 5.78 rushing yards per attempt. In fact, if this held for the remainder of the season it would be an NFL record. The record holder is the 1963 Browns, who were 10-4 and averaged 5.74 rushing yards per attempt. Jim Brown was the running back and he averaged 6.4 YPC and gained 1863 yards on 261 attempts.

This is highly misleading in the modern day of the NFL. The dominant reason the Eagles are ranked best is that Vick is running for his life and that few of the offensive plays that end up with Vick running the ball are designed for that purpose. He does have the elite speed and quickness to extend pass plays and tuck the ball and run for big gains.

Vick is the second leading ground gainer for the Eagles averaging 8.1 yards per carry and has gained 422 rushing yards. If you take Vick out of the equation to reflect a TRUE running game, the Eagles are averaging 5.02 rushing yards per game. The danger for the Eagles is that Vick is taking big hits every gane and it is beginning to wear him down. At some point, he is going to have to run less and learn to take a knee instead of taking on hits. This of course reduces his threat to run.

The Bears rank 12th against the run and in my opinion are vastly better than that ranking indicates. MLB Brian Urlacher and and WLB Lance Briggs are arguably the best LB tandem. The two combine for 13 Pro Bowls and Urlacher has three interceptions.

[tullamore21]

I do not use his picks at all, I read what he has to say, I base my decisions on line moves.......but if you are going to post ats record
post how many units you are up or down.......it's all about profit or loss, that is why it is called gambling, it's all about credibility.....no one in here should be defensive because I bring out pertinent points...you cannot have it both ways, great when you win , but let's not overlook the losses..it's..reality,............. been doing this for 40 years...kinda know what I am talking about


my suggestion would be a spreadsheet, much like other posters use, then there is NO question
why would anyone have a objection to that

I agree with you. I just wished you to post this kind of comments at Lakerboy's thread. You are a piece of "you know what"
You are a joke and at least your opinion doesn't matter at all. Every "old" forum's member knows what i am talking about.
DISAPPEAR NOW

[megonadman]

I agree with you. I just wished you to post this kind of comments at Lakerboy's thread. You are a piece of "you know what"
You are a joke and at least your opinion doesn't matter at all. Every "old" forum's member knows what i am talking about.
DISAPPEAR NOW

Geez,

That's a bit harsh.... Kinda very lame and low from a so called experience forum member.

Instead of dissing you should be embracing what the person has to say. It's just a forum, get over it and keep your emtionals to yourself cause you act very immature and unprofessional.

My 2 cents worth....

[John Ryan]

The Eagles have gone to a controversial Wide Nine under DC Jim Washburn. It was criticized widely by the Philadelphia media after starting out 1-4, but the players are showing signs of consistency and discipline. They have recorded 22 sacks, all by defensive linemen. In past seasons, the Eagles were known and expected to bring pressure from any angle and any Gap. Now, they rarely blitz and rely on the front four to get pressure on the quarterback.

However, this may be an advantage for Cutler knowing he will not be running for his life and will have a chance to survey the field. The Bears offense is designed on timing and being able to setup in the shot gun or use five step drops will give him a great opportunity tonight. The Eagles can use bump coverage in man situations, but they have been burned in past games with that technique. This is ow of the reasons that Chicago could win this game big. Eagles bring pressure Cutler can hit hot slant and underneath routes. If the don't, then he has time to survey the field. Also, the 'bubble' screen has proved very effective against the Eagles Wide Nine scheme.

[John Ryan]

The Eagles have rookie kickers and with Hester a home run threat every time he touches the ball, they will be kicking the ball to the sidelines. This makes the sideline essentially an additional defender and limits the cutback lanes that Hester has used to score so many touchdowns. However, when kicking to the sidelines it shortens the punt distance by as much as 10 yards and in this type of game field position will play a big role in who wins the game.

[tullamore21]

Geez,

That's a bit harsh.... Kinda very lame and low from a so called experience forum member.

Instead of dissing you should be embracing what the person has to say. It's just a forum, get over it and keep your emtionals to yourself cause you act very immature and unprofessional.

My 2 cents worth....

hey troll, say "flour"...

[John Ryan]

Here is a money line system and these are the types that are very valid and make tons of cash over the long-term. Play against any team using the money line that is a dominant team out gaining their opponents by 100 or more yards per game and after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This system has produced a 76-84 record for just 48% winners, but has made a whopping 70.6 units per one unit wagered since 1983. The average play has been a +203 DOG.

This systems I have coined Black Jack systems drawing on the popular casino game. Simplistically, Black Jack is a 50/50 proposition that pays accordingly. So, using this system let's say you went to the casino and played 160 hands of Black Jack and won 76 of them. If you were wagering $100 per hand you would have end your night with an $800 loss. However, if the casino paid you $203 for every $100 hand played you would have made $7,060 for the night. Now, you will never see those payouts at any casino ever, but this system has done the job for 28 seasons.

[megonadman]

hey troll, say "flour"...

Get a job........

[John Ryan]

Any plays for tonight, John?

Nothing that is really solid, but if you want my opinion, I would play a little using the Bears on the money line..

[tullamore21]

Get a job........

get a life or a bjob

[Monitor-Tan]

Personally, I think it's the bears or nothing. Eagles after they bye are perfect under Reid. But if you watched the game last week, the still didn't address one issue. And that's stopping the run. The rookie Murray ran all over them for over 9 yards a carry. He didn't run for another 200 yard game because their defense fell into the whole so big early that they had to ditch the running game. I don't see the bears digging themselves like cowboys did today. If they don't, there will be plenty of running game. The wide 9 can be used to neutralize Forte from catching in the back, but Cutler does one thing very good. Just may be top 5 in the league and that's throwing while scrambling. Bears offense is designed to dump balls in areas of the field. Cutler doesn't have to be very accurate with it, and this can cause a monster headache with Wide 9 Defense. I think this line is HEAVILY inflated after the win last week and public would LOVE the eagles tonight. for 2 reasons. One because of the thrashing of another "highly publicly betted team" in the cowboys on national TV. and Two, because bears are known to be well "shitty" the last couple of years and everyone still remembers the beating bears got against the giants on national tv. I think they are giving away WAY to many points tonight and I think grabbing the points with the bears tonight is the better play to be made.

[ZOLAS]

John,

I'm with your picks the rest of the season. Win lose or draw!. I wanted to put a couple of thoughts about the info you posted and get your thoughts. Offense running prowess has ben a tool used in capping football for long time, and you took out the vick factor, because it scewes the team number, but I thought the main reason that running ability is such a good tool is teams that run well put themselves more often in manageable 2-3rd down situations. If that is true, it would not matter if it is the half back, or the QB who gets the yards. Thus maybe the inflated yards are the more accurate ones to use. Also, while it may be better for Vick to slow the running down, we hae no indication that that is the game plan for the eagles tonught. And, maybe most importantly, if we look at who has the better chance at getting a 21 point win against the other, wouldn't it be much more likely the sometimes explosive Eagles would be that team.

One other thought, i believe someone on ESPN the ohter day said the bears strugled to ocntain Newton earlier this year.... if true may be instructive on inability tonight. I'm not bettingthe game, but sees to me the only team that could make your research come true of predicting big win is the eagles in a second straight blow out win. just my 2 cents.... love your work John.... wish I could pick your brain sometime about currency trading..... im just starting to get hooked on it, I'm sure you remeber how that was...

ZOLAS

[spike1519]

So many times we go with the trends and overlook things that have really impacted our losses on this thread SPECIAL TEAMS and turnovers as well as punt yards, setting up good feild position. Need I remind anyone of the 2 kickoff returns in a row that was the difference in the game last week. they went out of there way to not even kick it to him the rest of the game important stuff there. Also wheather will start to impact the outputs of some of these teams as we move into winter and bad playing conditions. I truly meant no offense jr but you say you've never used his picks i can put up a quote with you asking "Whats the pick on tonights Oklahoma game John and how many unit's" books always get better as the year progresses and sometimes just betting an early line is an advantage at this point in the season tonights game ask yourself has the line moved so much because of the knowledge of teams or the betting on the teams over the course of the week. Yes the books have it nailed tight this time of the season but there are times because of the internet where we have the same knowledge and I think turnover's, field position and special teams start to make an advantage when analyzed from now on as well as trends and early lines just my opinion. I got philadelphia starting to perform like they were predicted to all along and are actually in the hunt here as well as the bears. this is a big game for both teams and I look for a high scoring affair. Last tuesday I was able to get philly and the over at 46 both these teams score an avg of 23 to 25 ppg. and first line on philly was minus 7 I think those are reasonable bets regardless of outcome of the game. for me it's about learning and improving analysis over time rather than worrying about R.O.I's or money won right now. My meet's in horse handicapping usually take about 1/4 of the meet to get consistent winners and 3/4 of the meet before I start winning exotic bets on a regular basis which are a clear indicator that you've got the meet nailed. I'm assuming it will be similar in sports betting experimenting with different formulas trying new ideas and keeping tab's on stats get more and more critical as the books tighten ther noose on the season. Bol to all and lets keep learning and improving I'm not convinced its impossible by any means it just presents a more interesting challenge as it get tougher.....spike.......

[megonadman]

i guess I'm the only one who picked the bears........

[spike1519]

considering the line moved to 9.5 I hardly think your the only one on the bears bol .....spike....

[megonadman]

I don't bet on lines... Just the straight win..... 4/1......

[spike1519]

I don't bet on lines... Just the straight win..... 4/1......

think you misunderstood what i meant there . I mean there were alot of people betting the bears ......spike........

[quintaris23]

Good call John I had bears +8 wish I had went money line too

[fecgp40]

I had Bears + 8 as well. Moneyline would have been nice, but I'll take the "W!"

[thortada]

tip your hats to the chicago O-line (they usually suck balls) and cutler. nice call with the bears ML john. took it after your analysis on the bet.

[bassaholicman]

John, love your picks and the fact that you do it all for free, keep up the good work. That being said, we are not losing house money, the whole notion of house money is a gambling farce. Its your/our money, not the houses anymore, even if its over and above what you started with. Once you win that bet, its no longer the houses money.

I couldn't agree more with your take on "house money". An attitude of "it's just house money" has kept me from having positive months/years several times over. Having said that, I believe being consertatively aggressive when i'm up is easier to emotionally manage than when i'm down - conceivably chasing.

[rexieboy]

Thanks John. I took CHI on the Moneyline +270. Nice!

[willybc]

GREAT PICK, I TOOK CHICAGO +315 MONEYLINE. THANKS JOHN R. u the man

[wblgolfer59]

Exercise. After each week of the NFL go over every game after seeing the result and talk about what you think is going to happen as if you dont know the result but you are talking about it based on the result. For example. I think the bears are going to win because cutler will be able to exploite the poor eagles defense and the bears d will be able to keep the eagles offense at bay just enough to get the vicotry. Cutler has bad games but has a ton of tallent, based on this years games he will get it done vs the eagles. I feel like you did that every week it could really imporve your actuall rationality for future games before they actually happen.

[John Ryan]

Thanks for all of the great comments, research ideas, and opinions. Even thought it was not graded as 5* play, taking the money line last night proved to be correct. I strongly felt that if the Bears covered they would win so that is one of the many reasons - most of which I outlined above - that I recommended the money line play.

The point I was making about the Vick factor, is that there are few if any plays designed for Vick to run the ball. Any run play designed for him is risking a serious season ending injury. So, the yards he has gained is a result of the poor offensive line.

Also, of note, is I could NOT BELIEVE how poorly the 'dream team' corners played last night for the Eagles. This was an ugly week for the Eagles not just losing and falling to 3-5, but having the Giants get an unexpected win in Foxborough. They now trail the Giants by three games and Dallas by one in their own division. Dallas could win six in a row based on the schedule and that would make it nearly impossible for the Eagles to make the playoffs.