2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

**John Ryan** · 10-01-11, 07:11 PM

Ok. Here are the picks so far. Record stands at 11-5 ATS for 68.8% winners.
I like 5* Oakland +4 1/2 -110
5* Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 -110
5* Kansas City +3 -115.

Analyzing a few other games.. I also like the 'under' in the Buffalo game, but not a solid 5* play.. Perhaps you teaser lovers out there can consider a bet teasing the 'under' and Buffalo. As always, I appreciate your thoughts, comments, disagreements, etc. I think through the first three weeks we have all benefitted from eachother with the though provoking discussions this thread has enjoyed.

**John Ryan** · 10-01-11, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by ghetto1

u goin with byu tonight john?

I did go with BYU, which was released on the College thread. There will be a new college thread starting tomorrow night involving next week's California game. I will providing info on that game every day next week. Plus others of course, but that will be the focus point.

**John Ryan** · 10-01-11, 07:14 PM

Ok. Here are the picks so far. Record stands at 11-5 ATS for 68.8% winners.
I like 5* Oakland +4 1/2 -110
5* Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 -110
5* Kansas City +3 -115.

**Reload** · 10-01-11, 07:25 PM

Thanks, John! Have a great Sunday!

**John Ryan** · 10-01-11, 08:11 PM

This is only the 10th time since 1980 that two 0-3 teams have met and the home team has done very well ATS. This is certainly a 'toilet bowl' type of game, but there is tremendous value in taking the Chiefs. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-13 for 74% winners since 2000. Play against road favorites that are outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards per game on the season and after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. Take KC and consider adding an additional 3* amount using the money line.

**jbizzle** · 10-01-11, 09:09 PM

Raiders have been bought up to +7 at -135, +6 -110. Public pounding pats at -4? Could the sharps be moving line to take oakland last minute?

**Allure** · 10-01-11, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by John Ryan

Ok. Here are the picks so far. Record stands at 11-5 ATS for 68.8% winners.
I like 5* Oakland +4 1/2 -110
5* Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 -110
5* Kansas City +3 -115.

Where are you getting Bengals at 3.5 -110?

**Don Giovanni** · 10-01-11, 10:23 PM

I think that one of two will hit between Cinci and Oakland. Don't know enough about KC state of mind right now. But they're at home which can't hurt right?

**edawg** · 10-01-11, 10:33 PM

Like the ML on Cinci!

**PStrangers** · 10-01-11, 10:57 PM

Hi John,

Perhaps you are writing up the reasoning for your picks, but I'd like to ask why you think what the Bengals are the pick here at +3.5 (although it seems most books have +3). The Bills are entering this 3-0 with wins against the Raiders and Patriots. They have 7.5 passing yards per attempt (YPA) and 5.6 rushing YPA. Where the Bengals are only at 6.6 yards per passing attempt and 4.0 yards per rushing attempt. Defensively the Bills allow 6.6 passing YPA and 4.7 rushing YPA, but thats after winning against the highest passing YPA (Patriots) and highest rushing YPA (Oakland) currently. Obviously, the stats are interrelated. The Bengals defense have allowed 6.4 passing YPA and 2.9 rushing YPA, but they have only played Browns, Broncos and 49ners. To me the Bills look like they will have a clear advantage in the passing game. Defensively, the numbers seem to point to an advantage to the Bengals, but I think the numbers don't show the fact that they have played weak offenses.

To me, it seems the pick should be on the Bills. Obviously you put a lot of thought into your picks, so I am just curious what your reason is for liking the Bengals.

Cheers! And good luck to everyone tomorrow!

**soonerstud7804** · 10-01-11, 11:06 PM

Lets hope Cincy doesn't play like Virgina Tech...

**PhillyFlyers** · 10-01-11, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by PStrangers

Hi John,

Perhaps you are writing up the reasoning for your picks, but I'd like to ask why you think what the Bengals are the pick here at +3.5 (although it seems most books have +3). The Bills are entering this 3-0 with wins against the Raiders and Patriots. They have 7.5 passing yards per attempt (YPA) and 5.6 rushing YPA. Where the Bengals are only at 6.6 yards per passing attempt and 4.0 yards per rushing attempt. Defensively the Bills allow 6.6 passing YPA and 4.7 rushing YPA, but thats after winning against the highest passing YPA (Patriots) and highest rushing YPA (Oakland) currently. Obviously, the stats are interrelated. The Bengals defense have allowed 6.4 passing YPA and 2.9 rushing YPA, but they have only played Browns, Broncos and 49ners. To me the Bills look like they will have a clear advantage in the passing game. Defensively, the numbers seem to point to an advantage to the Bengals, but I think the numbers don't show the fact that they have played weak offenses.

To me, it seems the pick should be on the Bills. Obviously you put a lot of thought into your picks, so I am just curious what your reason is for liking the Bengals.

Cheers! And good luck to everyone tomorrow!

To add to this Mr. Ryan I would also like to know why your picks seem to center around really bad teams. Last week, you gave out Tennessee -7, St. Louis +5, and Chicago +4, all of which lost.

This week, you've got Oakland, who's pretty good but still unproven, Cincinnati, who's playing a really good Bills team, and Kansas City, who is probably the worst team in the league.

I don't want to offend you but I can't take these picks seriously.

**moneymac81** · 10-02-11, 12:02 AM

Originally posted by soonerstud7804

Lets hope Cincy doesn't play like Virgina Tech...

or NC ST and their "giant upset" LOL

**brucesmall** · 10-02-11, 01:34 AM

Haters coming out John, don't mine em, it happens. you are a winner. I'll probably stay away from your plays. I had a bad feeling last week and yet again feel that way. I may fade. But you are more serious of a capper than in anyone on this forum.

**GarbageMan** · 10-02-11, 05:53 AM

lol capperaments!

**GarbageMan** · 10-02-11, 06:41 AM

Originally posted by John Ryan

5* Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 -110

how can anyone take this guy seriously when he spouts this kind of bs, getting a magic 1/2 point to get off the 3 haha

**GarbageMan** · 10-02-11, 06:44 AM

Originally posted by John Ryan

Analyzing a few other games.. I also like the 'under' in the Buffalo game, but not a solid 5* play.. Perhaps you teaser lovers out there can consider a bet teasing the 'under' and Buffalo.

teasing the favourite and the under

**John Ryan** · 10-02-11, 08:44 AM

Originally posted by jbizzle

Raiders have been bought up to +7 at -135, +6 -110. Public pounding pats at -4? Could the sharps be moving line to take oakland last minute?

I have know specific facts about that, but I do think you will the line drop as the day wears on.

**John Ryan** · 10-02-11, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by brucesmall

Haters coming out John, don't mine em, it happens. you are a winner. I'll probably stay away from your plays. I had a bad feeling last week and yet again feel that way. I may fade. But you are more serious of a capper than in anyone on this forum.

Thanks. I have been doing this for 18 years and believe it or not I do actually have some bad losses. (laugh). The ket is that I have learned to move to the next opportunity. I could have swept the board yesterday win or lose and mental approach is always looking for the next opportunity and not allowing the emotions or results fo the previous day or week come into play.

So, may times, I think amateurs get caught thinking " I lost big yesterday, I to find that big winner so I can break-even. Or they do very well and then that invincible mental thinking comes in to play. In my opinion, that is one of he many reasons the public loses and gamblers - not investors - end up losing fortunes.

Thanks.

**fecgp40** · 10-02-11, 08:51 AM

Originally posted by John Ryan

Thanks. I have been doing this for 18 years and believe it or not I do actually have some bad losses. (laugh). The ket is that I have learned to move to the next opportunity. I could have swept the board yesterday win or lose and mental approach is always looking for the next opportunity and not allowing the emotions or results fo the previous day or week come into play. So, may times, I think amateurs get caught thinking " I lost big yesterday, I to find that big winner so I can break-even. Or they do very well and then that invincible mental thinking comes in to play. In my opinion, that is one of he many reasons the public loses and gamblers - not investors - end up losing fortunes. Thanks.

John, I love your thread and I think you are a solid capper. I just can't bring myself to bet on KC or Cincy today. I think Oakland will cover, but that game just scared me. Teased NE to .5, NO to -2 and Chi to -.5. Good luck today John.

**John Ryan** · 10-02-11, 08:51 AM

Originally posted by GarbageMan

teasing the favourite and the under

Sorry that is an obvious typo.. tease the 'under' with the Bengals since I have a 5* play on the Bengals.

**postal warrior** · 10-02-11, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by PhillyFlyers

To add to this Mr. Ryan I would also like to know why your picks seem to center around really bad teams. Last week, you gave out Tennessee -7, St. Louis +5, and Chicago +4, all of which lost.

This week, you've got Oakland, who's pretty good but still unproven, Cincinnati, who's playing a really good Bills team, and Kansas City, who is probably the worst team in the league.

I don't want to offend you but I can't take these picks seriously.

You can't figure out Cincinatti?

The Bills are coming off a huge come back win against a division rival and now they have to play the shitty Bengals. It has let down written all over it. Why do you think the line is so low? Do you think books want to lose? The majority of bettors look at that line and are going to hammer the Bills.

Same can be said at 4 o'clock with the Giants/Cardinals game. Everyone gonna hammer the Giants -1.

**John Ryan** · 10-02-11, 08:55 AM

To answer all of your questions, there are weeks where the teams are 'dirty' looking dogs, but we all have seen over the years how in one week a give team can look like Super Bowl contenders and then fall flat in the next week losing to what was thought to be an inferior team. My simulator is a neural net that is founded on a mathematical principle called 'back propagation' - It essentially has learned from 15 years of pervious games and then applies that accumulated knowledge to the current card. i then research a supporting cast of systems, angles, situations, and study the differing schemes each team runs. If the majority of these components SUPPORT the Sim, then we get a play that is based on comprehensive facts and analysis and not just a 'gut' feeling.

**John Ryan** · 10-02-11, 09:02 AM

New England couldn't stop the Bills from marching downfield. In fact, the Patriots have given up more total yards and yards passing than any other team. Their defense against the run is ranked 10th best - one promising sign against a run-oriented attack like Oakland's - but that's deceiving since teams have had to pass more to try to overcome deficits. Jason Campbell is the NFL's 10th-ranked quarterback but has thrown only 82 passes in the Raiders' three games. That is a sure sign of ball control type offense and that is a great recipe to defeat a high powered offense.
<My sim shows a very high probability that Oakland will gain more than 150 rushing yards in this game. NE is just 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) when they allow 150 or more rushing yards since 1992. Moreover, Oakland is a solid 52-15 ATS (+35.5 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards since 1992. Let's keep an eye on this part of the game and see what the result is when Oakland gets close to 125 rushing yards.

**John Ryan** · 10-02-11, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by fecgp40

John, I love your thread and I think you are a solid capper. I just can't bring myself to bet on KC or Cincy today. I think Oakland will cover, but that game just scared me. Teased NE to .5, NO to -2 and Chi to -.5. Good luck today John.

In reality this is a scary card top to bottom. There are weeks like this. Thanks for your input.

**John Ryan** · 10-02-11, 09:06 AM

Play on dogs or pick (CINCINNATI) that are statistically an average offensive team scoring between 18 to 23 PPG and now facing an excellent offensive team scoring >=27 PPG and after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
25-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons for 83.3% winners.

**John Ryan** · 10-02-11, 09:07 AM

Play against road favorites that are outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season and after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game.
(36-13 ATS over the last 10 seasons for 73.5% winners.

This system supports KC.

**no1here** · 10-02-11, 09:10 AM

buffalo should be ten point favorite and will score 34 by themselves, other games picked are toss ups but both should go over

**hendy15** · 10-02-11, 09:12 AM

Wow. Good call on the phillies game John. Time for some NFL!!

**Allure** · 10-02-11, 09:30 AM

I'm not hating or whatever. Don't necessarily like the plays, just wanted to know where you get that 3.5 -110 play on Cincinnati?

**John Ryan** · 10-02-11, 09:32 AM

Legends had it at that level when I listed the play.

**Allure** · 10-02-11, 09:37 AM

Alright, thanks and good luck with your plays.

Will be tailing that KC play, Vikes shouldn't be a 3 point road fav to anyone.

**Cap dat 4ss** · 10-02-11, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by Allure

Alright, thanks and good luck with your plays. Will be tailing that KC play, Vikes shouldn't be a 3 point road fav to anyone.

Wrong, Vikings will roll KC.

**John Ryan** · 10-02-11, 09:40 AM

A primary goal of the Bengals offensive scheme will be to get the ball to your perimeter targets: Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell and A.J. Green have been excellent at making plays downfield early in the season. They match up well with an inconsistent Buffalo secondary and Dalton could pick up some chunks of yards out of their spread sets. Look for Gruden to utilize more three and four wide receiver sets to exploit the Bills' marginal pass coverage.

**Dexter** · 10-02-11, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by PhillyFlyers

To add to this Mr. Ryan I would also like to know why your picks seem to center around really bad teams. Last week, you gave out Tennessee -7, St. Louis +5, and Chicago +4, all of which lost.

This week, you've got Oakland, who's pretty good but still unproven, Cincinnati, who's playing a really good Bills team, and Kansas City, who is probably the worst team in the league.

I don't want to offend you but I can't take these picks seriously.

winning at sports gambling is not about taking teams like the patriots, saints, packers etc each week. thats the way the "public" bets and while im not saying you should stay away from good teams, you should find a balance between value on less popular teams and good spots to take those obvious plays.