Office Pool Guy's Survivor Thread

[rockland]

I need advice. I picked SF early in the week when SF was -260. Money line and pointspread dropping like a rock. Feel it might close at -4, -200 tomorrow. Thinking of bailing off SF and running to Arizona. Any thoughts?

I don't wish to take Indy or TB because I prefer Carolina and Cincy. I want to save the Steelers, and I have burned the Giants.

SF or Arizona?????????? Thoughts?

[slacker00]

I need advice. I picked SF early in the week when SF was -260. Money line and pointspread dropping like a rock. Feel it might close at -4, -200 tomorrow. Thinking of bailing off SF and running to Arizona. Any thoughts?

I don't wish to take Indy or TB because I prefer Carolina and Cincy. I want to save the Steelers, and I have burned the Giants.

SF or Arizona?????????? Thoughts?

I did a writeup in one of the other survivor threads on this very topic. SF & AZ are closer than the line indicates.

It basically boils down to Troy Smith versus Derek Anderson, for me. Who do you want to pin your survival on?

[rockland]

I did a writeup in one of the other survivor threads on this very topic. SF & AZ are closer than the line indicates.

It basically boils down to Troy Smith versus Derek Anderson, for me. Who do you want to pin your survival on?

I also like Whisenhunt more than Singletary. Arizona knocked out one of my entries when they lost to TB 2 weeks ago. Part of me thinks burn me once shame on you burn me twice shame on me.

I think I will stick with SF; and then hedge with a TB/St.L/Arizona ML parlay that will pay over 5-1. That way if SF loses, my regrets that I did not pick AZ/and the dumb public survived with TB will be minimized.

Seattle is horrible, but they are off 2 blowout losses and the public is betting AZ here. In analyzing schedules, St. Louis has had 5 home 3 away; SF has had 3 Home 5 away. And the strength of schedule clearly favors SF.

Troy Smith at home doesn't worry me as much as Troy Smith on the road. It's a close call between SF and AZ.....maybe Ill just switch to Buffalo!

[officepoolguy]

I need advice. I picked SF early in the week when SF was -260. Money line and pointspread dropping like a rock. Feel it might close at -4, -200 tomorrow. Thinking of bailing off SF and running to Arizona. Any thoughts? I don't wish to take Indy or TB because I prefer Carolina and Cincy. I want to save the Steelers, and I have burned the Giants. SF or Arizona?????????? Thoughts?

I would go with Indianapolis even though I like Cincy to cover...I figure if I am going down I am going down with a Hall of Fame Quarterback. The Rams may upset San Francisco and Seattle is better than Arizona. If you had to make me choose between the two evils (SF and AZ), I would probably go with Arizona over Seattle. Besides the fact that Seattle is horrible on the road, the Hawks have injuries on the DL and OL. I wouldn't like putting my hopes on Anderson but I worry about SF (They are one of the most played against teams in the Hilton Super Contest).

Take Indy...or if you have to Arizona.

Good Luck

[officepoolguy]

office guy! i'm in a confidence pool where you make your picks against the spread, do you have any list for that? ps you give points to each game, 4 thru 16 on bye weeks

I do...search for THE OFFICE POOL GUY in Google.

[Gameboy]

I do...search for THE OFFICE POOL GUY in Google.

when i click on the confidence picks page it says i'm looking for page that does not exist

[rockland]

I would go with Indianapolis even though I like Cincy to cover...I figure if I am going down I am going down with a Hall of Fame Quarterback. The Rams may upset San Francisco and Seattle is better than Arizona. If you had to make me choose between the two evils (SF and AZ), I would probably go with Arizona over Seattle. Besides the fact that Seattle is horrible on the road, the Hawks have injuries on the DL and OL. I wouldn't like putting my hopes on Anderson but I worry about SF (They are one of the most played against teams in the Hilton Super Contest).

Take Indy...or if you have to Arizona.

Good Luck

Thanks, Won't take Indy. Absolutely like Cincy today. Arizona is public, I think. I will sit with SF. It's anti-public. The Hilton contest is public.

[darrell74]

It was a good run sir.
Sorry about the Giants.
I enjoyed reading your thread.

In my pool, we had 4 who could pick the Giants and three did. One picked Arizona.
The other 9 conceded to pick Tampa Bay.
Pool started with 103 entrants.
9 advance with the Tampa Bay victory.

[m3xtreme]

yea it was a good run guys... only 14 left out of 250 in my league.. all took TB this week.. hope to hear more from you guys in the future!!

[Sidetracked]

49ers saved me, 5 people other left in my league had either indy/tb....i now have pitt + saints in my pocket though

[officepoolguy]

Well it was a good run...I wish you all luck in the future. I will be back with some bowl plays and next year survivor.

If you want any advise here on out just PM me and I will try to help.

thanks all

The Office Pool Guy

[rockland]

49ers saved me, 5 people other left in my league had either indy/tb....i now have pitt + saints in my pocket though

49ers sure was a sick game. One of the best survivals ever. I got Pgh and NO and Indy in my hip pocket. Sure would like to come in with Cincy this week. but I might just have to play my New Orleans Card.

[rockland]

Well it was a good run...I wish you all luck in the future. I will be back with some bowl plays and next year survivor.

If you want any advise here on out just PM me and I will try to help.

thanks all

The Office Pool Guy

Thanks OPG!!!!!!

[rockland]

Thought you guys might enjoy this humorous recap of the past NFL Survivior week!

Week 10 is now in the books.

Our pick breakdown was dominated by two teams, and two teams only: Tampa Bay and the New York Giants. Tampa Bay 64, NYG 23. 4 on Indy and 4 on SF just for shits and grins.

Tampa Bay was excruciatingly the public side, and the square side. In its’ last game, Carolina lost its’ 2 best running backs, its’ starting quarterback, and Dan Connor-the middle linebacker. Interestingly, no one even mentioned the Dan Connor injury all week, and I felt that would be the Panthers biggest loss.

Carolina opened up 7 ½ point chalk and was immediately bet down. In spite the fact that 80% of all bets were on Tampa Bay. Carolina was off a blowout loss; Tampa Bay was off a loss that impressed; Carolina was a revenging divisional dog---John Fox’s greatest coaching situation. Tampa Bay has been mush as chalk at home. The betting line screamed public trap game . 64 guys couldn’t wait to pick Tampa Bay this week. Typical message boards were flooded with post titles “Why is Tampa Bay only favored by 6 1/2.”

I was sure Tampa Bay would be in for a struggle. I assumed the game would be a coin flip, decided by a field goal at the end.

And I might have been right.

But like most NFL games, the final result is inevitably determined by 1 or 2 critical refereeing calls….some good, some bad, some fortuitous. The more football games, I watch, the more this view is solidified.

Most guys probably did not watch this entire game. Either you don’t have Directv; or if you do have Sunday Ticket, your favorite team is definitely not Tampa Bay or Carolina.

Except for Bucfans, of course. (BTW, Nice pick on the Bucs, yesterday BucFans---glad you survived---last year my Steelers knocked me out, and it sucked to go down on my team).

So, BucFans and I watched the entire game. Probably no one else.

This game turned entirely on one play, maybe two. The first, an absolutely horrific call by an incompetent referee. 1:45 left in the half. TB 14 - Carolina 10. Bucs have 3rd and 15 from the 43. Freeman throws an incomplete pass over the middle. Carolina is going to take either a 14-10 or 14-13 deficit into the half. But the Ref decides to toss a flag. Of course, the replays show Winslow and Beason doing nothing more than chicken fighting. Charles Davis, the analyst, rips the referee. Doesn’t matter. Tampa Bay takes the gift. Drive stays alive. TB scores a touchdown right before half. 21-10.

Carolina owns the 3rd quarter, and closes to 21-16.

Early 4th qtr, Blount gets stripped of the football by defensive end Charles Johnson as he is being tackled. Johnson could have run 88 yard for a touchdown, and Carolina would have led 22-21 or 24 -21. Quick whistle. Down by contact. John Fox challenged. If this was a Super Bowl, probably would have had a good angle to uphold the challenge. But Carolina-Tampa Bay is only going to get 2 camera angles.

Probably one too many.

Both angles inconclusive. TB retains the ball and kicks a FG. 24-16.

Sure don’t know where this whistle was in the Baltimore-Buffalo game.

It was just one of those games. 2 calls: 1 horrible. 1 call a little helpful.
64 guys survive. With no idea how close of a sweat job their pick could have been.

23 guys came in on the NY Giants. I am still in disbelief that the Giants lost.

Normally, I would be all over the Cowboys. Blowout 45-7 loss to GB; NY Giants off blowout 41-7 win vs. Seahawks. Cowboys playing with revenge from earlier MNF loss. Line opened 13.5 and bet down to 11.5.

Normally, the Cowboys would be a lock for the Kmish.

Even I didn’t pay attention to Dallas this week. Dallas has been so putridly bad and so over-exposed by every media outlet that even I just didn’t want to pay attention.

And I surely didn’t foresee Eli Manning turning into Brett Favre.

23 guys got knocked out on 1 sick momentum turning completely unforeseeable play.

Midway through the 2nd qtr Big Blue is on the 2 yard line. 3rd down. 9-3 Cowboys.

And Eli Manning has his Brett Favre moment. Well, without the sexting. As far as we know.

101 yard Pick Six. 10-9 lead turns into 16-3 deficit.

Pick six?? 101 yards? Eli Manning?

Brett Favre? Without question.
Derek Anderson or Max Hall? Most definitely.
Jay Cutler? Positively, no doubt. Absolute lock. Twice, for good measure.

But Eli Manning???

Just brutal.

The 101 yard Pick Six is the most grueling play to have to watch when you have a Survival Pool pick dependent on the outcome.

4 other players chose to survive with the other manning, reliable big brother Peyton.
Indy jumped out to a comfortable 17-0 lead vs. the Bengals taking advantage of Cincy turnovers.
With 5 minutes left and a 23-10 lead, The Colts drive stalls at the Cincy 35. Cincy scores a TD with 2 minutes left. 23-17. Cincy lines up for the onside kick. Uh oh. What is going on?

These 4 Indy backers get off of their couch. They walk up directly in front of their 60 inch plasma.

One play. The hands team is on the field. It’s Indy. Reggie wayne. Pierre Garcon. Guys who look like Dallas Clark, but have different name on their jersey. Not to worry.

The ball heads straight to Garcon. Pierre appears to secure the football as he disappears into a pile of bodies. A scrum ensues. After pulling players out of the scrum, the officials (all 3 of whom had Tampa bay in their Survivor Pool) award possession to Bengals wide receiver Chad Ochocinco.
Pierre Garcon explodes and throws his helmet. Ahh, that will be another 15 yards. Bengals get the ball on Indy’s 40, down 6 points with 2 minutes to go.
Jim Caldwell is furious. Veins bulging from his neck. You can see him shouting every expletive at the referees. What the F^^$$, you sons of ^$^&^&^&$, we had the %^%^*& ball. Go check the F*%&% replay. Don’t you dare %^%^& me on this…..
Just kidding. Jim Caldwell would not act like this. Tom Cable, Yes. The four Indy Backers. Oh, yes.
Jim Caldwell, not a chance.
I don’t think any Indianapolis Colt even knows a swear word. Jim Irsay, Tony Dungy, Peyton Manning, Jim Caldwell. Just great swell guys.
Jim Caldwell: “Excuse me, sir, I think Pierre had the ball. Would you mind taking a look at the replay. Kindy take my red challenge flag.”
Referee: “No, Jim. We feel the ball was loose. We can’t let you challenge the play. Please hold onto your red flag”
Jim Caldwell: “I am so disappointed to hear that. Proceed as you will.
Referee: “Thank you, Jim. Are you sure everything is OK?”
Jim Caldwell: “Quite fine, my good sir. Our opponent is the Bengals, and they are likely to fumble on their first offensive play, rather than taking advantage of their good fortune.”
And Indy escapes.

The remaining 4 players were on the 2-6 San Francisco 49ers vs. the upstart St. Louis Rams. These 4 lucky guys got the escape job of the day with a thrilling miracle come from behind OT survival. The 49ers lost not 1, not 2, not 3, but 4 touchdowns due to penalties. An offsides, a delay of game, and 2 holding calls. Costly mistakes turned what could have been a comfortable San Francisco lead into a 17-13 4th quarter deficit.
More traumatic for the San Francisco backers was having to listen to Sam Rosen and Tim Ryan call the game. 9 minutes left in the 4th, down 17-10. Troy Smith throws a TD pass to Crabtree.
49ers are celebrating. There is a garnet and gold pile in the end zone. The “Hey” song is being pumped through Candlestick. The four 49ers backers are jumping up and down like a 9 month old in a doorway jumper; chest bumping their wife, pumping their fists to no end.
1 minute later.
Sam Rosen with his best Dick “Drunk on Scotch” Stockton impersonation: “Ewwww, Tim, I think I see a flag on the field back at the line of scrimmage.”
(Tim Ryan, who is the best analyst and seems to see every penalty ever committed)
Tim Ryan: “Yes, you do Sam. Anthony Davis was holding. What a shame”
Tying score eliminated.
Survivor Pool on the brink. Still have to score a TD. And then comes the cruelest heartbreaker ever. 2 minutes left. 3rd and 22 from the St. Louis 43.
3rd and 22!
Troy Smith, playing out of his skull, throws a laser to the back of the end zone to tight end Vernon Davis who leaps in the air, does the splits and reaches around a defender to catch the ball behind the other guy's back. WOW!!! TOUCHDOWNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!
49ers are celebrating. There is a garnet and gold pile in the end zone. The “Hey” song is being pumped through Candlestick. The four 49ers backers are jumping up and down like a 9 month old in a doorway jumper; chest bumping their wife, kissing their new born, jumping up and down and pumping their fists to no end. But for Brett Favre’s laser for the Vikes last year against these same 49ers, the most improbable TD strike I can remember. The 4 SF backers are delirious with joy.
1 ½ minutes later.
Sam Rosen gets the wax out of his ears and finally hears the spotter.
“Ewwww, Tim, I think I see a flag on the field back at the line of scrimmage.”
Tim Ryan: “Yes, you do Sam. Joe Staley was holding. What a shame”
Go-ahead score eliminated.
Done. Over. Disbelief. 4 touchdowns called back by penalty, 2 of which SF backers find out about after Sam Rosen comes out of the ether to let them know.
You had the game won, and now it’s 3rd and 32 from the 48. You slump on your sofa. Season over. Troy Smith completes a 14 yard pass to Gore. 4th and 18. You have no energy to move or watch your final play of the season. Troy Smith rolls out again. And completes a 23 yard pass again to Frank Gore. Huh?
You are still alive. You get off your sofa. You pray to the survivor pool gods to not give you any more pain. Just let you die in peace. 1st down from the 16. Troy Smith drops back. Michael Crabtree wide open. Touchdownnnnnnnnnn!
SF backers still don’t move. They don’t celebrate one bit. It can’t be true. Sam Rosen hasn’t finished drinking the bottle of Scotch Dick Stockton gave him last year. Sam and Tim are going to break their hearts yet again.
“Ewwwwww, Tim.”
“Yes, Sam.”
“I don’t see any flags this time.”
“No, you don’t Sam. No you don’t”

And the 4 SF backers move on courtesy of a flag that goes their way in OT.
Nicely done guys, nicely done.

[officepoolguy]

that is the NFL...I lost 3 games on the last play in my office pool also. Tough week for the office pool guy.

[neel]

Thought you guys might enjoy this humorous recap of the past NFL Survivior week!

It was humorous. The square pick was the Giants with their O-line injuries (and Steve Smith). Tampa Bay was by far the better team vs Carolina.