Ravens are the safest play this week...
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Survivor Week 7
Baltimore
Analysis: All right...we have set ourselves up for this week and I have been pointing towards this matchup since week 1. This is the week many will be faced with some tough choices and we will have a huge advantage. We are going with one of the best teams in the NFL against one of the worst. This game has blowout written all over it. Baltimore has one of the best rush defenses in the league so Buffalo will have to throw with one of the worst qbs in the league. Baltimore is the MUCH better team and that is exactly what you want in a survivor pool especially if many others are going to have to make some risky picks. The trends below really explain everything you need to know about this pick.
Trends to consider: Baltimore is 17-0 when favored by 10 points or more since 1992 and Buffalo is 1-11 as an underdog of 10 or more points. Want more...Baltimore is 10-0 when playing a team with a losing record the last 3 years.
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Here are the teams we have used so far if you haven't been following: Tennessee, Green Bay, New England, New Orleans, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh.
This week: BALTIMOREComment -
With you on Baltimore. I've also had this game marked since the start. So far, we have similar picks to date. I've used TEN,ATL,NE,NO,IND,PIT
Thanks for sharing.Comment -
This game should get us to week 8 where things get even more difficult. Already looking and have a few leans...let me know if you guys any insight or inside info that will help.Comment -
Thanks OPG!Survivor Week 7
Baltimore
Analysis: All right...we have set ourselves up for this week and I have been pointing towards this matchup since week 1. This is the week many will be faced with some tough choices and we will have a huge advantage. We are going with one of the best teams in the NFL against one of the worst. This game has blowout written all over it. Baltimore has one of the best rush defenses in the league so Buffalo will have to throw with one of the worst qbs in the league. Baltimore is the MUCH better team and that is exactly what you want in a survivor pool especially if many others are going to have to make some risky picks. The trends below really explain everything you need to know about this pick.
Trends to consider: Baltimore is 17-0 when favored by 10 points or more since 1992 and Buffalo is 1-11 as an underdog of 10 or more points. Want more...Baltimore is 10-0 when playing a team with a losing record the last 3 years.
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I like Seattle as the best "sharp" pick if you want to save teams etc.Comment -
will get interesting soon enoughComment -
I am from seattle and would never choose them in a survivor pool this year unless the are playing themselves at home. they are just too unpredictable.Comment -
Thanks for this. Baltimore it is!
Less than a third are left in my pool. This year I'm trying to just make sure I win every week and not try and get cute and save good teams for later in the season since you never know if they could get in injury trouble.Comment -
No problem...Make sure you read my first post if you are following my picks. I do think there are times to save teams and I use the look ahead method. I have been planning for this week and next as I really think the next two weeks will make or break most. Only about half the people in your pool should have Baltimore left and the other half is going to have some tough calls this week and next.
Let me know if you have any insight into next week as it is a tough week.Comment -
Baltimore guys, how you feelin'?
I didn't see that coming either, anything can happen in the NFL.
Next week looks fun, I'm tempted to take KC, but Dallas, Jets & maybe even Rams need to be considered. Analysis upcoming.Comment -
Buffalo is the only winless team in the league and they may give KC some fit next week.
I lean Dallas so far.Comment -
this will be a tough week - liking the Chiefs but the Bills are so dangerous though - about had a heart attack watching the Ravens game yesterday - just about knocked me out of the pool! Gotta see how bad the Cowgirls look tonight before ruling them out. Maybe the Rams?? they play pretty good at home...
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Jets???Comment -
The Bills did look dangerous but I think the Ravens played into their hands by not running enough. KC won't make that mistake.Comment -
Whew...Lesson here is be careful playing against winless teams they play their hearts out but you know what "A WIN IS A WIN" in a survivor pool.
I have a few ideas this week as I have seen this week coming for a while. Will post later.Comment -
I would think Kansas City at home would be a good pickComment -
^^^^I did my writeup in a different thread. I'm going with KC.
I agonized all week about this one. I had the Jets all but signed in ink, but backed off. Then I fell in love with Dallas because I love Kitna in a spot like this and if I don't take Dallas this week, I don't think I'll be taking them the rest of the way. I even entertained taking the Rams because this is about the only spot that's even remotely reasonable for them, but still couldn't pull the trigger. I guess it comes down to being too chicken and taking the "safest" bet, which we've been seeing all year isn't that safe. We'll see how this goes.
P.S. I'm in 'blind pools' which means I can't tell who's picking what teams. But if you have a hunch that people are going one way, it's worth it to go the other way because maybe you can thin the field with a 'lesser' pick. Unfortunately I don't have much of a feel for how my pools will go this week. There's still a lot of live players, we haven't had any major 'knockout' weeks yet.Comment -
[COLOR=#000000 ! important]Survivor Week 8
Kansas City
Analysis: Wow…I was all ready to choose Dallas this week and Romo goes down. I have tossed and turned over this decision between Dallas and Kansas City and have decided to go with Chiefs this week. Here are reasons:
1) Dallas may fold now that they are 1-5 and Romo is out. 2) I have Buffalo ranked last in my power rankings 3) Buffalo just played their hearts out against Baltimore and may not have anything left in the tank. 4) Kansas City can run against Buffalo 5) Arrowhead is a tough place to play.
Trends to consider: Buffalo is 2-17 as a road underdog of 7-10 points since 1992.
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I hate to go against the Bills again, but there really isn't much of a choice. BOL to us all![COLOR=#000000 ! important]Survivor Week 8
Kansas City
Analysis: Wow…I was all ready to choose Dallas this week and Romo goes down. I have tossed and turned over this decision between Dallas and Kansas City and have decided to go with Chiefs this week. Here are reasons:
1) Dallas may fold now that they are 1-5 and Romo is out. 2) I have Buffalo ranked last in my power rankings 3) Buffalo just played their hearts out against Baltimore and may not have anything left in the tank. 4) Kansas City can run against Buffalo 5) Arrowhead is a tough place to play.
Trends to consider: Buffalo is 2-17 as a road underdog of 7-10 points since 1992.
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GO CHIEFS!!!
points sentComment -
unreal! lmao
I was worried, but sheesh...
BTW: Ties count as losses in all of my leagues. I had to look it up.Comment -
This week is easy: Falcons.
My used teams: Titans, Packers, Pats, Saints, Ravens, Steelers, Seahawks, Chiefs, FalconsComment -
Division rivalry is never easy. This should be a tough week for Last Man Standing.
Packers would be the easy pick, but I think everybody has probably picked them.
I'm leaning Houston or Minnesota. They both host horrendous road teams.
I'd take New England (@Cleveland), but I've used them.
This week will be tough.Comment -
I'm leaning GB for Week 9. Most people remaining in my pool used GB in week 2, when I used Atlanta. Could be in a good spot.Comment -
This week should be a lot easier than last week. Picking between KC/DAL for me was murder. I hated both.
Packers would be a nice pick, the way Dallas has been playing. But you never know... I've already used GB anyway.
Minny is a good option, but I'm passing on them for the same reason I passed on Dallas last week. I'd rather have a hot team than a slumping team. Hot teams find ways to win, slumping teams find ways to lose.
Pats look great right now. I'd have no problem taking them vs the lowly Browns. But I've already used the Pats.
Ravens would be another fine option, if anyone still has them. I don't think Miami is that strong, going to Baltimore.
Steelers would be another great option, playing the pathetic Bengals. Thing is, who still has any of these teams left?
Texans are something to think about, but I don't trust them at home and the Chargers are much better than the record.
Talk about teams having deceptive records, check out the Bucs facing my Falcons this week. The only two decent teams that the Bucs have faced this year are the Steelers and Saints, both ended in blowout losses. The Bucs haven't beaten anyone over .500 this year. The Bucs are a young team that are still a couple years away from being at the level of a team like the Falcons. Don't be tricked by this being a division rivalry, these two teams haven't really had that much of a history before the division reallignment. I'm sure this will be hyped as a battle for the division lead or whatever, but Atlanta is simply a class above Tampa.Comment -
I discovered that ties count as a loss as well when I checked just before OT holding a KC pick and a money line hedge bet on the Bills. A tie would have been a disaster.
I'm going to go buy some grecian formula after that game. Unreal. It never should have got to OT. WTF was Haley thinking going for it on 4th and 1 at the 20 instead of kicking the FG? I suppose you could argue after the fact that the FG was no gimme given the wind and Succop's miss later but I've probably watched on average 10 hours of NFL a week for 25 years and never seen that. Take the 3 ffs. I respect his gambling ways most of the time but that was highly questionable.
KC fans have to be worried about this team moving forward. Cassel made several lame pass attempts when they were running the ball with relative ease. And the pass D? How many 3rd and longs did Buffalo convert to stay in the game? 5 or 6 for sure. As if they're going to stop the big boys in the playoffs. No chance.
Anyway, on to next week, lol.
Minny or Atlanta for me.Comment -
Alright I have narrowed it down and now checking a few trends and looking at the schedule for weeks 10 and 11. This week's decision may make or break us. Will post pick later in the week. Let me know if you have any trends that I use to make my decision.Comment -
leaning minnesota? Arizona is terrible and this is probably last spot to take minny in this yearComment -
Found your thread .. sounds like were are still stuck between atl and minny .. i am getting a lotta vikes backers b.c if "why wait on farve" he could be hurt by wee 11 12 13 .. non division game ... The team might be furious about the locker room drama and take it out on the lowly Cards who are awful away from home .. AP could score 4 tds and run for 200 in this gameComment -
I'm going with GB this week, but since you've already used them... you should consider going with Minnesota. AP will have a big day, and Minny's defense will be able to handle a terrible Arizona team.Comment -
Week 9
Week 9 Survivor Pick
Minnesota
Analysis: I see only three options: Atlanta (divisional game), Minnesota (turmoil) and New York Giants (on the road). I have struggled with this decision and think it will ultimately determine if we have shot at winning a pool.
With some hesitation I am going with Minnesota even though my heart says the G-Men. Here are my reasons: 1) I can’t pick Atlanta in a divisional game that is for 1st place considering that Tampa has won 3 of the last 6 meetings and the Giants are on the road against a team who is very good at home. They also did not play well the last time they visited to Qwest field 2) Arizona stinks, they are 31st in defense and 29th against the run (Minny has AP remember) 3) Minny is very good at home, 17-4 straight up the last 3 years. 4) Farve has something to prove 5) The Vikings have lost to 5 GOOD teams this year (NE, GB, NYJ, MIA, and NO)
So lets go Vikings
Trends to consider: Arizona is 7-30 on the road as an underdog of 7-10 points. Minny is 11-3 as a fav of 3.5-9.5Comment
