RLM System Plays

**Kurtz** · 02-13-12, 02:04 PM

Found this in another thread:

This is the result of 6 seasons of NHL when betting on all away underdogs closing with less than 35% of public trend.

Stats:

Number of plays: 1864
Wins: 691 (37.07%)
Losses: 1173 (62.93%)
Average odds: +180
Units: +121.69

Average # of plays per season: 309
Average units win per season: +20.33

ROI: 6.5%

Worst downswing: -30 units

Seasons details:

2005-2006: -2.88 units
2006-2007: +14.4 units
2007-2008: +51.06 units
2008-2009: +49.2 units
2009-2010: -9.74 units
2010-2011: +18.43 units

Mean: +20.08 units
Standard Deviation: 23.31 units

Bankroll growth by taking the whole ride with 1 unit = 2% : 537%

As you can see, this "method" is not stable yet based on those seasons. The SD still beats the mean. It would need more seasons of testing, but since it is close to stable, and it is quite a no-brainer, I tought that it was interesting to share.

**R19** · 02-13-12, 02:52 PM

Thanks Kurtz, recent NHL games with 3,000 total plays or more are not in line with these results.

**detroitigerz** · 02-13-12, 03:58 PM

Know it's early, but probably am going to be playing this Phoenix Coyotes game tonight... and that may be it. I don't like any of the basketball games tonight.

Mission check the teams GETTING points is GO!

**detroitigerz** · 02-13-12, 04:37 PM

Alright just ran the numbers, from 1/31 till 2/11 NHL games with >3000 bets and >63% AND only taking the team getting points are 33-6 as compared to 29-5 with the games that are taken >3000 bets and >63% (take team not favored)

I like looking at the VIG movement, think it helps figure out which games maybe to put a little more money on, they seem to be a bit safer. As I've said before, since 1/31 (know it's not that long ago) theres only been 1 loss (that was Feb 7th in the St. Louis vs Ottawa game) ... teams that have at least 5 pt movement on the vig (in the right direction) are 14-1 since 1/31... pretty good.

**mrtsummit** · 02-13-12, 04:44 PM

Those are very strong numbers even for a small sample. Looks like Phoenix is a play.

**ToPHeR** · 02-13-12, 04:45 PM

Van is due for a win though

**detroitigerz** · 02-13-12, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by ToPHeR

Van is due for a win though

What makes you say that? Phoenix is on a 5 game winning streak upsetting 2 division leaders, I really like this game ... i think.

**Reno Gambler** · 02-13-12, 04:59 PM

Only one game for me:
New Orleans +4.0

RESULTS:
CBB: 5-3
NBA: 5-4

**wiseguy007** · 02-13-12, 05:40 PM

update: 5:40pm

Games to Watch 2/13/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then

comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)

NCAAB

7:00pm 514 Baylor Bears OPEN -8 NOW -8.5

O/U:

9:00pm 519 Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks/520 Coppin State Eagles OPEN 144.5 NOW 145.5 - PLAY OVER 145.5

2/11/12: 0-1

2/10/12: 1-0

NCAAB O/U YTD: 2-1

NBA

10:35pm 511 Phoenix Suns OPEN +3.5 NOW +3

O/U:

2/12/12: 0-2

2/11/12: 0-1

2/10/12: 2-0

NBA O/U YTD: 4-3

2/12/12: 5-3

WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22

YTD: 92-74-1 55%

NHL PK LINE: 4-2 +$25 AS A 100 BETTOR

10:05pm 5 Phoenix Coyotes PK +1.5 OPEN -180 NOW -190

NHL ML: 0-1

10:05pm 5 Phoenix Coyotes ML OPEN +160 NOW +145

**Night-Tripper** · 02-13-12, 05:55 PM

Really not much to choose from tonight, so it's not surprising that there are not really any RLM plays. So.. for entertainment purposes, and because I'm a degenerate.. I'm going to go with:

Bucks +6/350
Bucks +230/200
Kansas/Kansas State U136/350

**detroitigerz** · 02-13-12, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

Really not much to choose from tonight, so it's not surprising that there are not really any RLM plays. So.. for entertainment purposes, and because I'm a degenerate.. I'm going to go with:

Bucks +6/350
Bucks +230/200
Kansas/Kansas State U136/350

Surprised you're not taking the mav's tonight NT... they were an RLM for a few hours earlier and even now the static is even.

**Laissez Faire** · 02-13-12, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by Night-Tripper

because I'm a degenerate.. :

haha... here's my card for tonight...headed out to the magic game

7pm iowa st / baylor over 140
7pm syracuse -2.5
9pm kansas st +4
9pm kansas / kansas st under 135.5

7pm Philly / Charlotte over 178.5
7pm t'wolves +5
7pm t'wolves / magic under 190.5
8pm jazz -5

7:30pm sharks -125
7:30pm sharks -1.5 (+235)
7:30pm sharks / capitols under 5.5
7:30pm canadiens -150
7:30pm hurricanes / canadiens over 5

GL to all...

**detroitigerz** · 02-13-12, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by Laissez Faire

haha... here's my card for tonight...headed out to the magic game

7pm iowa st / baylor over 140
7pm syracuse -2.5
9pm kansas st +4
9pm kansas / kansas st under 135.5

7pm Philly / Charlotte over 178.5
7pm t'wolves +5
7pm t'wolves / magic under 190.5
8pm jazz -5

7:30pm sharks -125
7:30pm sharks -1.5 (+235)
7:30pm sharks / capitols under 5.5
7:30pm canadiens -150
7:30pm hurricanes / canadiens over 5

GL to all...

jeeeeez you got season tix to the magic? lucky lucky

**detroitigerz** · 02-13-12, 06:38 PM

Anyone know of a good site that like Free sports bet that will go back in time and tell me what the lines were (movement and such) and the outcome of the game? I can't get FSB to go back past Jan 31st. I've got some time tonight and was really wanting to backtest this NHL puck line theory out as far as I could get... scoresandodds.com is absolutely terrible.

... scratch that FSB works earlier than jan 26th for some reason? Was there some kind of 5 day break in hockey or something? jan 25th thru jan 30th?

**R19** · 02-13-12, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

Anyone know of a good site that like Free sports bet that will go back in time and tell me what the lines were (movement and such) and the outcome of the game? I can't get FSB to go back past Jan 31st. I've got some time tonight and was really wanting to backtest this NHL puck line theory out as far as I could get... scoresandodds.com is absolutely terrible.

... scratch that FSB works earlier than jan 26th for some reason? Was there some kind of 5 day break in hockey or something? jan 25th thru jan 30th?

Try OddsShark.

**wiseguy007** · 02-13-12, 07:22 PM

UPDATE 7:22PM

Games to Watch 2/13/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then

comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)

NCAAB

7:00pm 514 Baylor Bears OPEN -8 NOW -8.5

O/U:

9:00pm 519 Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks/520 Coppin State Eagles OPEN 144.5 NOW 145.5 - PLAY OVER 146

2/11/12: 0-1

2/10/12: 1-0

NCAAB O/U YTD: 2-1

NBA

O/U:

2/12/12: 0-2

2/11/12: 0-1

2/10/12: 2-0

NBA O/U YTD: 4-3

2/12/12: 5-3

WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22

YTD: 92-74-1 55%

NHL PK LINE: 4-2 +$25 AS A 100 BETTOR

10:05pm 5 Phoenix Coyotes PK +1.5 OPEN -180 NOW -190

NHL ML: 0-1

10:05pm 5 Phoenix Coyotes ML OPEN +160 NOW +145

**Reno Gambler** · 02-13-12, 07:32 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

Anyone know of a good site that like Free sports bet that will go back in time and tell me what the lines were (movement and such) and the outcome of the game? I can't get FSB to go back past Jan 31st. I've got some time tonight and was really wanting to backtest this NHL puck line theory out as far as I could get... scoresandodds.com is absolutely terrible. ... scratch that FSB works earlier than jan 26th for some reason? Was there some kind of 5 day break in hockey or something? jan 25th thru jan 30th?

Was that All Star Week??

**Reno Gambler** · 02-13-12, 07:33 PM

Adding 2 NHL:
Car +130
PHX +145

**Night-Tripper** · 02-13-12, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

Surprised you're not taking the mav's tonight NT... they were an RLM for a few hours earlier and even now the static is even.

Simply going by intuition tonight... if I were to play the Mavs game, I'd be going with the Clippers. I'm just fooling around tonight and biding time until tomorrow.

**R19** · 02-13-12, 07:42 PM

Glossed over that question. NHL All Star Weekend was 01.26.12 through 01.29.12.

**detroitigerz** · 02-13-12, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by Reno Gambler

Was that All Star Week??

ah ok well then that makes sense... let the backtesting begin!

**detroitigerz** · 02-13-12, 08:45 PM

Okay well figured I'd keep you guys updated with my progress, I've gotten back to Jan 10th so my results from jan 10th to feb 12th are still on the upside, but not quite as good, (obviously 14-1 is pretty hard to beat)... so here are my results so far.

Still the best ratio is games with >63% played over 2800 total points and 10 of line movement on the VIG, but I think I'll probably be playing a single bet on a movement on 5 and doubling down on games with 10 or more of movement. Really the 30-6 probably doesn't do it justice, I couldnt submit many games that had 6-9 points of movement on the VIG and there were quite a few, probably at least 5 all winners.

Anyways as you can see by the attached spreadsheet the results are still pretty good...

With that said, think I'm only going take a single bet on the Phoenix game tonight cause it's only at 63%. I'm going to keep track of my record for the hockey games starting tonight. (probably only going to be playing them from now on).

Attached Files

Sports_Data.xlsx (15.6 KB, 80 views)

**R19** · 02-13-12, 09:01 PM

detroitigerz, on your review are there other filters applied to 'Only + side teams?'? Winning percentages look good, but there is number of plays can increase net profit significantly. Thanks.

**detroitigerz** · 02-13-12, 09:09 PM

Originally posted by R19

detroitigerz, on your review are there other filters applied to 'Only + side teams?'? Winning percentages look good, but there is number of plays can increase net profit significantly. Thanks.

The parameters for the only + side games were:
>63% on one side
>2800ish (never went below 2700) games
Always took the + side no matter what. Just looked to see if there was 63% on one side or the other then chose + side.

What other parameters were you thinking R19?

**R19** · 02-13-12, 09:26 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

The parameters for the only + side games were:
>63% on one side
>2800ish (never went below 2700) games
Always took the + side no matter what. Just looked to see if there was 63% on one side or the other then chose + side.

What other parameters were you thinking R19?

That was it. Wanted to double check that those were included. I'm proceeding with that for now banking on no trend change.

**detroitigerz** · 02-13-12, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by R19

That was it. Wanted to double check that those were included. I'm proceeding with that for now banking on no trend change.

Okay, and I am going to keep going backwards and adding more data to the spread sheet... bigger the sample size the better!

Also, just played

Phoenix Coyotes +1.5

**Laissez Faire** · 02-13-12, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by Laissez Faire

haha... here's my card for tonight...headed out to the magic game

7pm iowa st / baylor over 140 WIN
7pm syracuse -2.5 LOSS
9pm kansas st +4
9pm kansas / kansas st under 135.5

7pm Philly / Charlotte over 178.5 WIN
7pm t'wolves +5 LOSS
7pm t'wolves / magic under 190.5 LOSS
8pm jazz -5 LOSS

7:30pm sharks -125 WIN
7:30pm sharks -1.5 (+235) WIN
7:30pm sharks / capitols under 5.5 LOSS
7:30pm canadiens -150 LOSS
7:30pm hurricanes / canadiens over 5 WIN

lookin bleh tonight haha...i do like that +235 win in NHL though

**Laissez Faire** · 02-13-12, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

jeeeeez you got season tix to the magic? lucky lucky

I'm fortunate enough to work for multimillion dollar company with a suite at the arena...I would never pay for magic tickets haha

**detroitigerz** · 02-13-12, 11:13 PM

Originally posted by Laissez Faire

I'm fortunate enough to work for multimillion dollar company with a suite at the arena...I would never pay for magic tickets haha

niiiiiiice, been to a few lightning games in tampa in the box seats when I was interviewing with Microsoft. That was a ton of fun.

**coleman50** · 02-14-12, 12:25 AM

and the coyotes come thru with a goal at the end of regulation.

**Laissez Faire** · 02-14-12, 09:09 AM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

niiiiiiice, been to a few lightning games in tampa in the box seats when I was interviewing with Microsoft. That was a ton of fun.

I have always wanted to attend a hockey game...need to make my way to Tampa one of these days for more than just the strip clubs

**R19** · 02-14-12, 12:02 PM

Lot's on the schedule. Let's see what's in play.

**detroitigerz** · 02-14-12, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by R19

Lot's on the schedule. Let's see what's in play.

Pick me some WINNERS, looks like we had a good first night of hockey eh?
Been watching the lines quite a bit today, seems to be quite a bit of movement just not alot of volume... obviously it's 5 hrs till the puck drops so hopefully the volume picks up.

Really like the ottowa game tonight, and thinking about playing georgia state...

**detroitigerz** · 02-14-12, 03:14 PM

Alright here is my updated spreadsheet... back to Nov 28th.
Well every week I've been going back the ratio is getting lower, kind of as I figured it would. Still proving my idea of looking at the VIG as being IMPORTANT to picking NHL games. Whereas for a week back that record was 14-1.... it is now 65-26. While it doesn't seem that great it's still got the highest ration of all of our other methods (for NHL). I'm going to continue with my same strategy,
1.) >5 but <10 movement on VIG (in right direction) bet 1 unit
2.) >10 movement on VIG (in right direction) bet 2 units

Attached Files

Sports_Data.xlsx (16.9 KB, 88 views)

**darkenergy** · 02-14-12, 05:02 PM

On freesportsbet.com, anyone with bigger monitor can you please tell me the line movement on VCU/Mason game? I using a laptop, and when I click on that game, the popup window is hidden at bottom of my screen, I can't drag it up. A screen shot would be great.
Thanks, and good luck tonight.