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Well if you go by what John has for this play, then +23.5 would look to be a good play. In my own personal opinion, I would lay off this one, it can really hard to tell when college players come to play. They don't have the same motivation as pro players do on a consistent basis.Comment -
Any more plays for the late night games, John?Comment -
Excuse me for butting in but how can you say that college kids don't come to play compared to the Pro's...have you ever watched a regular season NBA game!?Comment -
Of course I have, it can definitely seem that way at times. I can't really argue that, but a professional compared to an amateur should be at the top of their game when you put in the factors that separate a professional from an amateur. If you have ever played sports on any sort of level you should have an idea of what I mean.Comment -
I played sports all thru HS and College
I'm just saying I don't agree with that statement. Just because a team doesn't cover in a game you bet on doesn't mean they tanked it lolComment -
Never said they tanked it, just saying that they may have not given their full effort. I played sports in college and high school as well and have seen it happen on plenty of occasions. There is a difference between tanking it and giving it your full effort. You can certainly lose a game badly and still give your full effort. You can also tank it and lose a game badly as well. I think you will see the lack of effort occur more often from an amateur as opposed to a professional is all i am trying to say.Comment -
Nice job John with your last 16 plays going 7-4 in 5* plays and 3-2 with 10*.
Update: 87-95 on 5* plays, 21-8 on 10* plays and 4-2 on 20* plays.
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Chief, I hear where you are coming from
So changing gears here I'm curious to know how experts cap games...what it's based on? What factors go into it?
Head to head, win/loss streak, coach, refs ,points per game etc?Comment -
I wish I knew how to cap them. I can tell you that quantitative and qualitative analysis goes into it. For John, he uses the simulator along with those specific trends that he often uses to add to his reasoning for the pick. You should also check out LTA thread, he is a successful handicapper as well and can give you more concrete information on how he comes up with his plays. Refs, stats, situational factors are just some of the methods he uses to cap his games. One thing I do know is that all of these good handicappers have some sort of formula that they use in conjunction with these stats etc., to come up with their number for the game to compare to what vegas is offering. When they find a number that is off or offers value that is when they will typically jump on a game. How they come up with these formulas is their secret to success. Hope this helps you some.Comment -
anything for the early games today John?Comment -
So has that been to lure us all in, now he is going to start charging?
J/K (hopefully)
Seriously, Great work John, love the write ups as much as the games, (almost I do like $$$)
not sure how I found this site, but has definitely been a good 2-3 weeks.
The other 2 free picks this AM hit (from other handicappers), UMASS and UNC, so if anyone is fiending until John comes back.Comment -
looks like JR is on the CuseComment -
Does any one have the link to where I can read his thoughts and picksComment -
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Good stuff. If you use the 5* as a 1 unit play, 10* as a 2 unit play, and 20* as a 4 unit play, you are up 14.1 units at -110 lines over the course of 217 plays. NICE!Comment -
And he announces what * it is on this forum as well as that page...?Comment -
Thanks for the help guys... Got it figured outComment -
cuse moved to -8... Surely possibly, but cinci has a way of keeping games close... To many points to lay to go with the public in my opinion... John, I'm a big fan of your stuff tho... Tailing on your louisville play... BOL fellasComment -
He say 20* on texas and 5* on louisville on the front page buy not in here yetComment -
ok.. lots of plays for tonight: I'll provide the recap here and you can find the research on the site. I will have the record updated tomorrow after these games are completed. I will be on-line to check in later tonight as well.
10* Syracuse -7 1/2 -110
5* Louisville -3 -110
5* Baylor +7 -110
20* Texas +6 1/2 -110
5* Colorado -6 -110Comment -
That is discipline adn way to go for yourself!!!!Comment -
All of the above and more.. I believe my research reports outline all of the major factors for each game..Comment -
That was a bad one indeed... But i hope everyone did get down on the Texas 20* game last night...
first time in a long time I have had back-to-back 20* plays on the same team.Comment -
where did you post that 20* play on texas?Comment -
5* gradedNCAA Basketball pickon the Texas Longhorns as they take Iowa State in the quarterfinals for the Big-12 Conference Tournament set to start at 9:30 PM ET....It was not a 20* at all this is your quote from the your website stating that it was a 5*
Here is the link for you all in case you want to see it:http://www.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketb...-pick-a-23704/Comment -
And colorado + 6 not -6Comment -
It definitely is Colorado +6, there is no other Colorado team playing except Colorado St. +2. It is just a typo on his part. I don't think he is a big fan of spell check, even though this error did not require that.Comment -
California is 5* Titan play... Not Colorado....Comment -
jeez John what is going on today.....First you have Colorado +6 here and now you have California -6 on your site...What is going on over there?!
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20 star on texas yesteday WTF must have missed that oneComment -
Ya, there is some serious confusion with John's posts and the articles on the site.
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