Tracking New System (80% in 1st week)

**DuncHen22** · 01-08-11, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by tonycarr

I dont know what the 2nd filter is but you were 6-1 in the early games the one you marked wrong was your only loss.

time for the late games and 2 more look like winners already.

Im also hoping you stay and perhaps share some information too.

Yeah, I'd like to know what TXBulldog's 2nd filter is too! I'm at 8-6 right now, a decent +1.4 units, but that's a far cry from 6-1!

**primetime27** · 01-08-11, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

Yeah, I'd like to know what TXBulldog's 2nd filter is too! I'm at 8-6 right now, a decent +1.4 units, but that's a far cry from 6-1!

I would be content with him just posting the plays

**BMaddz** · 01-08-11, 11:44 PM

what's the plays for tomorrow haha this system seems to be working nicely

**DuncHen22** · 01-09-11, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

I'll at least post what I have as of now, and then I'll update it as the new data comes out by adding lines or taking them away.

Tier 1:
Cal +1 (2) WIN
Wofford +1.5 (2.5) LOSS
UNC-Greensboro +3.5 (4.5) LOSS
Eastern Ill +1 (2)LOSS
Tennessee PK (2) LOSS
Providence PK (2) LOSS
LSU +2 (4) WIN
Middle Tenn -1 (2) WIN
Elon -1.5 (2.5) WIN
UC-Davis -2 (2) LOSS
Alabama -4 (2) WIN
Ball St -3.5 (2.5) WIN
Portland St -6 (2) WIN
Vandy -5.5 (3.5) LOSS
BC -5.5 (3.5) WIN
Kentucky -5.5 (4.5)LOSS
Northern Colorado -7.5 (2.5) WIN
James Madison -6 (4) LOSS
Utah State -7 (4) WIN
Pitt -8 (4) PUSH
Arkansas-LR -8 (4) LOSS
Central Florida -8 (5)LOSS

Tier 3:
[added]UTEP +5 (2) WIN

Let me know if you see any mistakes or if I left anything out.

Tier 1: 10-11 -2.1
Tier 2: 11-11 -1.1

Not up to par but it could have been a lot worse, I guess. TXBulldogs seems to be on to something (although I didn't check his night games) and I'd really like to know what his 2nd filter is. Whatever it is, I'll keep posting my plays and maybe he can post his and we can track both here. Just a thought.

Anyway, I can live with just losing a unit for a day. On to tomorrow!

**DuncHen22** · 01-09-11, 12:06 AM

T1: 56-36 (61%) 16.4 u
T2: 64-40 (62%) 20.0 u
T3: 81-52 (61%) 23.8 u

**DuncHen22** · 01-09-11, 12:10 AM

Another note, had I not played the games where the line was less than 10 but KP projected them as double digits, my record today would have been 9-7 +1.3... Keep in mind though, the last 4 were winners so I think we're still positive with those plays. I'm keeping my eye on them though.

**tonycarr** · 01-09-11, 12:10 AM

He went 9-4 and I agree amazing that out of 22 plays it went 11-11 and if not for E Ill totally blowing a 15pt lead in the 2nd half you could both remove a loss and add a win.
I have to say Im super impressed with what you've done DuncHen and want to thank you for sharing, however hopefully TXBulldogs will also share and we may have found a very exellent formula to follow!

Kudos to the both of you.

*edit - for spelling errors*

**tonycarr** · 01-09-11, 12:12 AM

Also wanted to add that Madison playing like total crap until there was 1 minute left probably cost a win as well.

**Aussiecapper101** · 01-09-11, 12:22 AM

got out of today alright, keep up the good work guys a few unlucky stories in these games..

**Axis** · 01-09-11, 12:31 AM

Can't always have 75% days...oh well, still managed +units which is always the goal! (I myself lost a unit).

On to tomorrow!

Louisville, Siena, and Indian State lookin' good!

**TxBulldog** · 01-09-11, 12:38 AM

The second filter is my PR's. I am not willing to post all my plays. Every time I do, my results seem to suffer. I will post my list of plays where my PR's agree as much as possible. The results have been very good so far.

**DuncHen22** · 01-09-11, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by tonycarr

He went 9-4 and I agree amazing that out of 22 plays it went 11-11 and if not for E Ill totally blowing a 15pt lead in the 2nd half you could both remove a loss and add a win.
I have to say Im super impressed with what you've done DuncHen and want to thank you for sharing, however hopefully TXBulldogs will also share and we may have found a very exellent formula to follow!

Kudos to the both of you.

*edit - for spelling errors*

I'm glad you appreciate my work (and others') and I really like the group effort feel of this thread! Let's work together and keep it rolling!

**DuncHen22** · 01-09-11, 12:49 AM

Tentative lineup for tomorrow. I'll update as soon as KP updates his data.

Tier 1:
Indiana State +2 (4)
Louisville -7.5 (2.5)
Siena -9 (2)

Tier 3:
Bradley +12 (3)

**tonycarr** · 01-09-11, 12:51 AM

Originally posted by TxBulldog

The second filter is my PR's. I am not willing to post all my plays. Every time I do, my results seem to suffer. I will post my list of plays where my PR's agree as much as possible. The results have been very good so far.

Thanks, Im new but what are PR's? Please dont

just new at some of this. I understand what your saying though, however no one so far is being a donkey because its research atm. However it is good positive research and I thank everyone who is contibuting. I am also trying to do my best to help as well.

Keep up the great work!

**tonycarr** · 01-09-11, 12:53 AM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

I'm glad you appreciate my work (and others') and I really like the group effort feel of this thread! Let's work together and keep it rolling!

I agree with that. although Im new here IVe seen alot venom spit out at some for trying to do things like this in other threads. This one is really different. people all seem to want to help understand and in my case learn. Lets keep it going!

*Edit*- added the quote so you guys know what the heck im talking about.

**tonycarr** · 01-09-11, 01:44 AM

Originally posted by Axis

Can't always have 75% days...oh well, still managed +units which is always the goal! (I myself lost a unit).

On to tomorrow!

Louisville, Siena, and Indian State lookin' good!

I got lucky was getting creamed in some games and this really brought me back hitting on 3 games at the finish line. I will help any way I can.
I work late so perhaps Ill watch late line movement see if it makes a play.

**dingbat** · 01-09-11, 03:06 AM

this has been my saving grace against my dumb intuition. keep it up guys!

**kanak_attack** · 01-09-11, 03:38 AM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

No problem. Let me know if this helps, or not.

So you can go to KP's daily predictions by clicking on "FanMatch" at the top, then you get this: http://kenpom.com/fanmatch.php

Let's take an example from today, Pittsburgh.

You will see Pitt's game listed like this:
17 l 40 Marquette at 7 Pittsburgh l Pittsburgh 80-68 (87%) l 2:00 PM l Pittsburgh, PA l Petersen Events Center l 54.9

You can poke around his site to figure out what all of those numbers mean but all we are interested in is "Pittsburgh 80-68." Take the difference and you see Pitt is predicted to beat Marq by 12 points. Then look at the line and we see the books have put it at -8. That's a 4 point differential so I list it as a play like this:
Pitt -8 (4)

And it's a tier 1 play since they are the favorite to win.
If KP is calling the home underdog to cover the spread it's a tier 2, and if he's calling an away underdog to cover it's a tier 3.

I should mention I use the terms "fave" and "dog" to refer to KP's predictions. So if KP is projecting California to win by 1 and the books have Cal at +1, I call them the "fave" and list it as a tier 1 play. Not sure if I should do this but that's what I have been doing.

I hope that helps! If not, feel free to ask anything else!

thanx it does help.

keep in touch and good luck with your system.

**sporty1** · 01-09-11, 07:22 AM

Hey bro .. The 4 or 5 point differences in lines went 2 wins and 5 losses .. Interesting ?? It's all about tightning these systems up to work best for us . Keeping my eye on this baby .. 2 pt difference on Sat went 5 wins 4 losses 2 1/2 pt diff went 3 wins 1 loss .. 3 1/2 pt dif. went 1 win 1 loss fyi ...........

**Heandog** · 01-09-11, 07:45 AM

great job guys split for the day Dunchen I have had a lot worst days keep up the good work

**sporty1** · 01-09-11, 07:57 AM

Also .. bit interested is taking a look at how the line moves once it's determined a play . If number for example only Louisville opening line 7 1/2 is a play with the kp 10 . If line moves up toward the the kp of 10 should you lessen the play because the public being on it or just leave it a play . I usually like betting against the public .. Tell me your view on this when possible .

**TxBulldog** · 01-09-11, 10:50 AM

My power ratings say all 4 of these are good plays today.

**geeze** · 01-09-11, 11:50 AM

TxBulldog,

Thank you!

**TEXAS MICKEY** · 01-09-11, 12:13 PM

Thanks Dunc,

Picks have been great, keep the post going with the great positive input from everybody.

TM

**DuncHen22** · 01-09-11, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by sporty1

Hey bro .. The 4 or 5 point differences in lines went 2 wins and 5 losses .. Interesting ?? It's all about tightning these systems up to work best for us . Keeping my eye on this baby .. 2 pt difference on Sat went 5 wins 4 losses 2 1/2 pt diff went 3 wins 1 loss .. 3 1/2 pt dif. went 1 win 1 loss fyi ...........

Yeah I'm watching those but I don't read too much into 1 day. That would be like flipping a coin and getting 2 heads and 5 tails and assuming the coin is rigged. I'm just going to track these for the rest of the season and evaluate it all after. Thanks for looking out though!

**DuncHen22** · 01-09-11, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by TxBulldog

My power ratings say all 4 of these are good plays today.

Great to hear! It doesn't looking like KP is going to update his data so we'll just have to go with this. BOL, everyone!

**sporty1** · 01-09-11, 12:27 PM

Bro .. What opening line do you guys use ? I see a few more games out there ??

**tonycarr** · 01-09-11, 12:30 PM

Thank you DuncHen22 and Txbulldog.

Louisville went off at -8 right at the limit.

**DuncHen22** · 01-09-11, 03:17 PM

Hey guys, so I just had this idea that came to me and tested it out on yesterday's plays. Obviously 1 day isn't a good test at all but since we had so many it's a good start.

So my idea was if our picked team fails to cover the first half spread, play them in the second half. This would require you to NOT play them in the first half. Just watch.

So of the 23 plays yesterday, 12 teams covered the 1st half spread while 11 did not. This means We would have 11 2nd half plays.

Those teams went 7-4 in the second half, which is 64% and would be +2.6 units.

My logic is that we should see a regression toward the mean. I figure our plays are generally good to begin with but if they don't play well in the first half, we should see them come back a bit in the second half. The problem with just playing full games is they often DO come back (according to my hypothesis) in the second half, but just not enough to cover the game spread.

What do you guys think? I may just follow this on my own, or I could sort of make a note of these at the end of the day, if you'd like. It would be more work to update these live since 1st halves end at different times so for now I'll probably just look after the fact.

**DuncHen22** · 01-09-11, 03:25 PM

Louisville would have been a winner as well. Didn't cover 1st half, but did in the second half. Luckily they covered the game as well.

It's a potentially great system because they were down 3 at the half and the 2nd half line was -6. If they win the game by 4 we essentially break even (or lose 0.1 units instead of 1.1). If they win by 8+ we win 2 units. But if they win by 2 or less or lose, we'd be out 2.2 units. I'll have to track this a while to see if it pays off but I think it has strong potential.

Keeping my eye on Siena now, lost 1st half and 2nd half spread is -5.5.

**tonycarr** · 01-09-11, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by DuncHen22

Hey guys, so I just had this idea that came to me and tested it out on yesterday's plays. Obviously 1 day isn't a good test at all but since we had so many it's a good start.

So my idea was if our picked team fails to cover the first half spread, play them in the second half. This would require you to NOT play them in the first half. Just watch.

So of the 23 plays yesterday, 12 teams covered the 1st half spread while 11 did not. This means We would have 11 2nd half plays.

Those teams went 7-4 in the second half, which is 64% and would be +2.6 units.

My logic is that we should see a regression toward the mean. I figure our plays are generally good to begin with but if they don't play well in the first half, we should see them come back a bit in the second half. The problem with just playing full games is they often DO come back (according to my hypothesis) in the second half, but just not enough to cover the game spread.

What do you guys think? I may just follow this on my own, or I could sort of make a note of these at the end of the day, if you'd like. It would be more work to update these live since 1st halves end at different times so for now I'll probably just look after the fact.

Ive done this in the past and has worked in much the same way as you discribe.
I truely believe it would be worth tracking. Problem is as you say in your 2nd post could end up losing 2 units on the whole deal.

**DuncHen22** · 01-09-11, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by tonycarr

Ive done this in the past and has worked in much the same way as you discribe.
I truely believe it would be worth tracking. Problem is as you say in your 2nd post could end up losing 2 units on the whole deal.

Yeah, it could just magnify any problems by doubling losses... but if the percentages are good enough it could come out with a +EV. I won't play be playing these for a while, just tracking. With so many possible scenarios in this sort of thing, it's going to take a pretty good sample size to see if it works.

**DuncHen22** · 01-09-11, 04:20 PM

Also, I think I'm going to change the names of the tiers just so it's more clear what's going on.
You think it would be better to list it like this?

Faves:
+home dogs:
+away dogs:

Then I may also add this to the bottom of my daily recaps:
+2H plays*:
*since 1/8/11

**tonycarr** · 01-09-11, 04:41 PM

That looks nice as you said lets us know what each play is. Another thing I was looking at and not able to track it except going forward is the line movement. I had inquired about it earlier and I think it could also be worth watching. If the line moves in our direction (making it a non-play late) VS line moving away (IE siena moving to -7). Perhaps tie those together for a 2nd half play.

**tonycarr** · 01-09-11, 05:01 PM

going along with this. Next game up Indiana St. Line has not really moved much but some have it moving toward our play. Im not getting a 1st half line on that game though.