HG's College Hoops Thread

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-17-16, 01:36 PM

Sorry for the short notice on this one:

2:00 Cleveland St/Ohio u145 -110
I have under 70 possessions here, and I don't think Cleveland St can score enough to get this one over 145. Helps that neither team gets to the line or shoots very well when they do.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-17-16, 01:44 PM

7:00 Oklahoma St/Wichita St o151.5 -110
These defenses have nice efficiency numbers, but I like the over here for a couple of reasons. First, we should see close to 80 possessions here. Second, I think some of the defensive numbers are inflated because of the offenses these two have faced. Finally, these are really good offensive teams that can both get to the line a lot.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-17-16, 04:37 PM

6:00 Wyoming -10 -102
Cornell hs been off for 17 days and heads to Laramie to face an uptempo Cowboy squad at over 7,000. I look for Cornell to tire out and the Pokes to win make a lot of FTs down the stretch.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-17-16, 08:24 PM

Last play of the day (sorry no write up):

10:00 Fresno St/Pacific o141 -110

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-18-16, 12:30 AM

3-1 day. Lost the Pacific over even in OT.

22-20 (+.56u)
Totals: 19-15

**dogcity** · 12-18-16, 03:59 AM

Rock solid analysis of the Wyoming game...appreciate the writeups...

Cheers

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-18-16, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by dogcity

Rock solid analysis of the Wyoming game...appreciate the writeups...

Cheers

Thanks. And thanks for stopping by. I hadn't posted a side in a while, but that was an impossible spot for Cornell.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-18-16, 09:14 AM

2:00 Fairfield/NC State o147.5 -110
I'm expecting 75+ possessions in this one and think we could see quite a few more. Fairfield likes to push the ball, and NC State will run as well. The Wolfpack is really good offensively, and Fairfield should be just good enough to get into the high 60s/low 70s. I do worry a bit about two things: 1) Fairfield has been off for 12 days and might be sluggish, and 2) there probably won't be much energy in the building for this one.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-18-16, 10:17 AM

12:00 Miami (OH)/UCF u133 -103
Since BJ Taylor went down, UCF's games have had 66, 61, and 63 possessions. In that stretch, the Knights have struggled mightily to score and their offensive efficiency has been terrible. The good news, however, is that the UCF defense is very good. Miami will try to push tempo, but I think we see a game at or below 65 possesssions. With UCF's stout defense and offensive woes, that should keep is under 130 in this one.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-18-16, 04:53 PM

1-1 today with an easy winner on the over and an OT loser on the under.

23-21 (+.53u)
Totals: 20-16

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-19-16, 11:48 AM

9:00 Bradley/Ole Miss o147 -105
No much time to write today, but I expect a ton of FTs in this one.

**readytowinem** · 12-19-16, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

9:00 Bradley/Ole Miss o147 -105
No much time to write today, but I expect a ton of FTs in this one.

Yes

**doubledime** · 12-19-16, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

9:00 Bradley/Ole Miss o147 -105
No much time to write today, but I expect a ton of FTs in this one.

It's on my radar also. Good luck

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-19-16, 02:06 PM

8:00 S Dak St/Drake u147.5 -110
I get 70 possessions with two teams that aren't very efficient offensively. Risk here is that the threes drop tonight, but I think they'll miss enough to keep us under 147.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-19-16, 06:51 PM

9:00 S Mississippi/Mississippi St u135 -107

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-19-16, 11:07 PM

1-2 day. SDSU/Drake under looked good at the half and then they combined for 92 in the second half. Ole Miss was never close.

24-23 (-.62u)
Totals: 21-18

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-16, 08:54 AM

3:15 Iona/UCSB u149.5 -110
A lot of this play has to do with the venue, which is really an equestrian arena. The last D-I tourney played here was very low scoring (highest game was 142 points), but that was before rule changes. Pace-wise I think this one stays in the low 70s, 73 max. If UCSB can play any defense at all, we should stay under 160 at that pace. Both teams have also been off for a week, so we may see some rust to start out.

**doubledime** · 12-21-16, 12:36 PM

As always great write up/reasoning. Thanks

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-16, 12:43 PM

Your bump made me realize there's a typo. Should read "under 150," not 160. Last I looked there was some wicked RLM going on though, so exercise caution. Here's a picture of the arena, btw:

And heres res a link to some previous results there: http://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/to...sic/82/bracket

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-21-16, 02:15 PM

I can't pull the trigger and I was close,

One thing Ive learned from you is try to avoid totals w/ opposite styles, and thats what we have here.

Im gonna watch this one, and root you on...

Extremely tough card tonight imo... I got 1 so far and that might be it...

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-16, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

I can't pull the trigger and I was close,

One thing Ive learned from you is try to avoid totals w/ opposite styles, and thats what we have here.

Im gonna watch this one, and root you on...

Extremely tough card tonight imo... I got 1 so far and that might be it...

Interestingly, Iona is averaging 73.2 possessions per game and UCSB is averaging 72. So they're not as far apart as you might think. But Omaha, USC, and UCLA are the only games where UCSB has been over 70 possessions.

And I agree that this is a tough card. Not a lot to look at from my perspective.

**doubledime** · 12-21-16, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Interestingly, Iona is averaging 73.2 possessions per game and UCSB is averaging 72. So they're not as far apart as you might think. But Omaha, USC, and UCLA are the only games where UCSB has been over 70 possessions.

And I agree that this is a tough card. Not a lot to look at from my perspective.

Tonight is a perfect example on how different handicappers look at different stats. My big problem tonight is I have 8 possible plays tonight and I am trying to get it down to no more than 3 to 4. When I hear it's a tough card tonight I start second guessing myself.... and say to myself, am I missing something?

**doubledime** · 12-21-16, 05:02 PM

Well played

Just noticed the first two games end in the same score

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-21-16, 05:14 PM

Great job

I couldn't pull trigger

but I'm on the next under

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-16, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by doubledime

Tonight is a perfect example on how different handicappers look at different stats. My big problem tonight is I have 8 possible plays tonight and I am trying to get it down to no more than 3 to 4. When I hear it's a tough card tonight I start second guessing myself.... and say to myself, am I missing something?

I agree that's interesting. Maybe that's why things seem to work out when we agree. We're clearly coming at this from different angles, which I think can be a real strength.

Still looking over two games, but this under might be it for me today.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-21-16, 06:33 PM

1-0 and calling it a day.

25-23 (+.38u)
Totals: 22-18

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-21-16, 06:37 PM

Great work per usual

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-22-16, 08:51 AM

10:30 Portland/CS Fullerton o148.5 -110
This one should get up to 75+ possessions with these two teams. Fullerton does a great job of getting to the line and also puts teams on the line a lot, which is something I like in overs. Fullerton's offensive efficiency is the weak link here, but the pace and free throws should be enough to get us over 148.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-22-16, 09:11 AM

4:00 UC Davis/Air Force u147.5 -110
This game is a good example of the need to understand the stats you're looking at. Air Force averages 78.8 ppg this season. However, that number includes two big wins over non Division I schools. When you take those games out, the Falcons' season average dips to 75.3 ppg. Davis is similar. The Aggies' season average is 71.5 ppg, but when you look at only D-I games, that average drops to 68.2. So a game that, on its face, looks like an over based on season averages, suddenly looks like an under if you take out the non D-I games. But more important to me than season scoring averages is the pace. Both teams prefer a game in the low 70s. I don't see this game having more than 72 possessions, and at that number I like it to stay under the number.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-22-16, 01:03 PM

7:00 EKU/Manhattan o149.5 -110
No time to write this one up right now. I'll try to do so later, but possessions and free throws are the reason for this one.

**doubledime** · 12-22-16, 05:44 PM

Good luck on your card tonight

**Louisvillekid1** · 12-22-16, 05:47 PM

good luck tonight buddy

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-22-16, 06:04 PM

Thanks fellas. Survived the first one. After a 58-point first half, Davis and Air Force put up 86 in the second. Stayed under, but just barely.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-23-16, 12:49 AM

2-1 day. It's OK to be lucky sometimes and that's what we got with OT in Fullerton.

27-24 (+1.28u)
Totals: 24-19

**HeeluvaGuy** · 12-23-16, 10:14 AM

8:00 Houston -10.5 -103
Harvard has been off for 16 days and now they travel to Houston for a Christmas Eve eve game against Houston (and then they have another week off). Houston scored 77 points on 60 possessions against Liberty Wednesday and should dominate Harvard tonight. Between offensive rebounds and turnovers I don't see how Harvard gets enough shots up to keep this one under double digits.