SuicideKings 2011-12 NBA Thread

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 04:48 PM

1/11

Magic ML (-118) x4

IMO, this is the best play on the board tonight. The Magic had a lot of fight in them last night, but just got outplayed by the Hawks. Tonight, they're back at it against a team that's not nearly as athletic as the Hawks and is more succeptible to the Magic's style of play.

**I am Happy** · 02-11-12, 05:14 PM

Any worry at all of seeing that lifeless Magic squad after a long flight to the cold that looks like they're standing in mud on offense?

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by I am Happy

Any worry at all of seeing that lifeless Magic squad after a long flight to the cold that looks like they're standing in mud on offense?

I wouldn't play it x4 if I didn't really like it... It's not just an action bet.

**No coincidences** · 02-11-12, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

1/11

Magic ML (-118) x4

IMO, this is the best play on the board tonight. The Magic had a lot of fight in them last night, but just got outplayed by the Hawks. Tonight, they're back at it against a team that's not nearly as athletic as the Hawks and is more succeptible to the Magic's style of play.

Good luck SK. Weird line movement. Milwaukee games can get bizarre on Saturday nights. Still, should cash I would think.

**demens** · 02-11-12, 05:59 PM

Why take the ML -118 if you can have -1.5 -105. You really scarred of a 1 point win? I'd take the better price especially betting 4x, people really overvalue those once in a blue moon lost/won by the hook moments.

**dlunc3** · 02-11-12, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by demens

Why take the ML -118 if you can have -1.5 -105. You really scarred of a 1 point win? I'd take the better price especially betting 4x, people really overvalue those once in a blue moon lost/won by the hook moments.

i felt the same way when my Milw -1.5 bet lost last night on a 1 pt Milw win

**I am Happy** · 02-11-12, 06:01 PM

that was more so just me thinking out loud about their road hornet loss off of a b2b where they scored 34 first half points and their next loss on b2b where they scored 69 pts..both two weeks ago.

**No coincidences** · 02-11-12, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by demens

Why take the ML -118 if you can have -1.5 -105. You really scarred of a 1 point win? I'd take the better price especially betting 4x, people really overvalue those once in a blue moon lost/won by the hook moments.

Seems like it happens a lot in the NBA, though.

**demens** · 02-11-12, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Seems like it happens a lot in the NBA, though.

I dont know, maybe i'm getting lucky. Look it happens and i've been on both ends of it but it doesn't happen a lot. i'd say 1 to 2% of the time at most.

I think its more worthwhile to concentrate on getting a better price rather then a better point spread. So you take a team -5.5 at -103 and it closes at, -5 -108. Boo-hoo, you got beat by the closer, in the long run that 1-2% of the time a hook matters is not gonna kill you, but playing odds at -103 vs -108 will make a huge difference. Just my opinion, i haven't actually sat down to crunch out the numbers but seems like simple logic to me. If you constantly play at -110 odds and need to hit just under 53% to break even then that 1% may make a difference for you, but if you make an effort to get the best prices it wont effect you much at all.

And yeah, i know reduced lines have lower limits and all that, but lets be real, there are no pros here betting thousands on a daily basis.

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by demens

Why take the ML -118 if you can have -1.5 -105. You really scarred of a 1 point win? I'd take the better price especially betting 4x, people really overvalue those once in a blue moon lost/won by the hook moments.

I've won and lost several games this season by a point. I'm not in the mood for half measures right now, and would rather just pay the small premium. I'm pretty comfortable playing MLs up to about -180 as needed.

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by demens

I dont know, maybe i'm getting lucky. Look it happens and i've been on both ends of it but it doesn't happen a lot. i'd say 1 to 2% of the time at most. I think its more worthwhile to concentrate on getting a better price rather then a better point spread. So you take a team -5.5 at -103 and it closes at, -5 -108. Boo-hoo, you got beat by the closer, in the long run that 1-2% of the time a hook matters is not gonna kill you, but playing odds at -103 vs -108 will make a huge difference. Just my opinion, i haven't actually sat down to crunch out the numbers but seems like simple logic to me. If you constantly play at -110 odds and need to hit just under 53% to break even then that 1% may make a difference for you, but if you make an effort to get the best prices it wont effect you much at all. And yeah, i know reduced lines have lower limits and all that, but lets be real, there are no pros here betting thousands on a daily basis.

You need your average odds laid to be -110 to be a winner at 53% (adjusted for bet size, etc). I won on the Hawks at +162 and Clippers at +153/+284 last night, so -118 is overpaying, but the +ML winners don't factor into the equation? Really you need to calculate your Z-Score for the wagers you make in order to get a meaningful result if you're not flat betting (or at least correct for the bet size variation). When you vary your stake, unadjusted W% becomes less meaningful.

The majority of the bets I make are at low juice. Paying more for the ML doesn't automatically make the bet -EV.

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Good luck SK. Weird line movement. Milwaukee games can get bizarre on Saturday nights. Still, should cash I would think.

The Bucks have a pretty amazing atmosphere for their weekend home games. It will definitely be bumping there tonight, but the Bucks have no one that can effectively guard Howard with Bogut off the floor, and I would think that he'll draw quite a few FTs tonight. That inside mismatch is a great starting point, and overall, the Magic's play in their last 6 games has been pretty good. This next 4 games are a great stretch for the Magic to re-establish themselves at low market pricing.

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 07:42 PM

LIVE (End of 1Q, 35-26 Pacers): Nuggets ML (+269) x1

Granger can't win this game by himself.

**Pauulzcappin** · 02-11-12, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

LIVE (End of 1Q, 35-26 Pacers): Nuggets ML (+269) x1

Granger can't win this game by himself.

Took them at +7.5

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Took them at +7.5

Amundson just picked up his 4th PF at 8:50 in the 2Q. hahaha...

**demens** · 02-11-12, 07:55 PM

Yeah because Denver is so stacked upfront, Indy is really gonna miss him.

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

LIVE (End of 1Q, 35-26 Pacers): Nuggets ML (+269) x1 Granger can't win this game by himself.

LIVE (5:42, 2Q, 51-41 Pacers): Nuggets ML (+319) x0.5

Composite Line: (+287) x1.5

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by demens

Yeah because Denver is so stacked upfront, Indy is really gonna miss him.

The comedy that is the career of Lou Amundson. He can't score, and is a weak rebounder. You'd think by now he'd have at least developed some discipline.

**demens** · 02-11-12, 08:07 PM

energy guy, in todays nba that is not a bad skill to have.

**Pauulzcappin** · 02-11-12, 08:08 PM

denver looks way better running and gunning than against the warriors with a stagnant offense.

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 08:24 PM

LIVE (5:37 1Q, 22-15 TWolves): Knicks ML (+354) x0.5

Knicks shooting 55% vs the Wolves 75%. Let's see who cools off first...

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 10:34 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

1/10: Jazz ML (+100) x3

0-1 (-3u)
YTD: 48-52-2 (+8.90u)

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 10:37 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

1/11

Nuggets ML (+287) x1.5
Knicks ML (+354) x0.5
Magic ML (-118) x4

1/11: 3-0 (+10.06u)
YTD: 51-52-2 (+18.96u)

**alamo** · 02-11-12, 11:16 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

1/11 Magic ML (-118) x4 IMO, this is the best play on the board tonight. The Magic had a lot of fight in them last night, but just got outplayed by the Hawks. Tonight, they're back at it against a team that's not nearly as athletic as the Hawks and is more succeptible to the Magic's style of play.

Played this one in running SK when the Magic were down early. Crazy game. We looked alive and buried around 5times. J RICH was Magical for the Magic tonight

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Played this one in running SK when the Magic were down early. Crazy game. We looked alive and buried around 5times. J RICH was Magical for the Magic tonight

Oh yeah. What an amazing game from Richardson. I was feeling pretty good going into the second half with the Bucks shooting a higher FG% and taking a lot more shots in the 1H, but unable to pull away. Great night.

**suicidekings** · 02-11-12, 11:25 PM

I think this sums up the second half of the Magic-Bucks game nicely. I love Photoshop.

**Elad** · 02-11-12, 11:46 PM

Nice hits tonight man...

**alamo** · 02-11-12, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I think this sums up the second half of the Magic-Bucks game nicely. I love Photoshop.

**Hoopster17** · 02-12-12, 12:32 AM

Big thanks to the fan who told J Rich he was washed up during the game that set him off

**suicidekings** · 02-12-12, 02:45 AM

Originally posted by Elad

Nice hits tonight man...

**suicidekings** · 02-12-12, 02:46 AM

1/12

Celtics +3.5 (-110) x2

**Kalibongo** · 02-12-12, 04:52 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

1/12

Celtics +3.5 (-110) x2

Why the Cs man? Will Rose sit out?

**I am Happy** · 02-12-12, 09:48 AM

Orlando pulled through. Nice call.

**suicidekings** · 02-12-12, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by Kalibongo

Why the Cs man? Will Rose sit out?

Because Boston should not be a +3.5 home dog to the Bulls. This is the Bulls' last city of a 9 game, 15 day road trip, in which their last three games have been against NJN, NOH, and CHA and they had an average margin of victory of 25 points. They haven't played a real team in a while. The Celtics are 9-3 in their last 12 games, with two of those losses coming by only one point. They've finally jelled and are mostly healthy and should be considered a top 4 team in the East moving forward.

This isn't a good spot for the Bulls, and the books are asking bettors to pay a premium on them.

**suicidekings** · 02-12-12, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

1/12 Celtics +3.5 (-110) x2

Hawks ML (+150) x1