John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

**1gamer** · 02-11-12, 01:34 PM

2/11 (System +32 units since 2/4) (Open Series 0)

V3 Modified 2 team parlay (A)

Phil -7
Pho +2

1 to win 2.64 units

C1 SU Wager (A)

Denver +3

1.10 to win 1 unit

BOL tonite

**freeagent** · 02-11-12, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by million2one

Upcoming sixers series should be a max bet, especially that now they are coming off of 2 losses.

Go Sixers, they should be angry after last night

**million2one** · 02-11-12, 03:15 PM

Nice FA,

I will be taking the Sixer's tonight, maybe buy two points.
I am confident they will cover one of the next three games without a point buy though.
Seems like a good opportunity.

**thelimit0310** · 02-11-12, 05:18 PM

JM 7/5 Results

I have backtested 8 years of the 7/5 method extensively. It is a thing of beauty that is for sure, but as with everything sports betting it is not perfect. It took some tweaking to max out the results, and I'm happy to say the end result is in all likelihood the most profitable way to play the JM system! To start things off I will be posting the baseline 7/5 results. This is without filters and these are not final results, I just wanted to show you all the starting point:

Baseline Results (pre-filter/Not Final)
2003-4: +34.55
2004-5: -27.15
2005-6: -17.1
2006-7: -17.9
2007-8: +96.75
2008-9: +251.4
2009-10: +78.5
2010-11: +172.1
Total: +571.15

As you can see the results at the end are great! Many would have stopped here, and who could blame them. But I personally can not play a method that loses 3 seasons in a row. The method here from this sample has a 43% failure rate. The method pulls out so well only because the winning seasons are so much more than the losing ones. So, being the perfectionist I happen to be, I set my mind on creating a filter...

The Half-Point Buffer and Skip October Filters

The Half-Point Buffer is the result of my efforts. I tried many many different angles and this filter came out on top of them all. Here's how you play it: Whenever there is an A bet for JM, the A bet not only has to lose with the 3pt buy, but also an additional half point, to be considered an official 7/5 play. To be clear - the A bet must lose by an additional 3.5 points to the spread. So if the spread for an A bet is +7, the team in question must lose the A bet by 10.5 points to be a play. A bets that push or win with 3.5 points to the spread are no plays. A quick example - in 2006-7 New Orleans had an A bet with Golden State. The end score was 116-121 and the spread was +1.5 to New Orleans. With 3 points bought the spread would be +4.5. This means the A bet still lost 120.5 to 121. This series went on to lose on the B and C bet as well, making this a losing series. However with the Half-Point filter in place the score becomes 121-121, pushing the A bet. Since this is now an A bet push and not an A bet loss, the series would be a no play. If this is still confusing to any of you let me know and I will do my best to clear it up, but it should be pretty straight forward. There is also a Skip October filter in place. In some seasons playing October was beneficial, in others it was detrimental. Over the course of the entire sample it was shown to cause a net loss in units. Because of this, only series that start in November onward are official.

Now, here are the results with the filters in place. These are final results.

7/5 Final Results (filters in place):
2003-4: +70.85
2004-5: -19.5
2005-6: +12.2
2006-7: +35.05
2007-8: +84.75
2008-9: +244.4
2009-10: +66.5
2010-11: +146
Total: +640.25

As you can see the filter works beautifully and ups the total unit gain by almost +70 units! There is still one season that goes negative however. No matter how hard I tried I could not get every season in the positive. Even so, the method now only has a 14% failure rate, down almost 30%! The season the method does go negative is by less than 1 losses worth of units. Had there been 1 less loss that season we'd be looking at full +'s. So the ability to gain every season is very much possible! For comparison, the traditional JM system over the course of this sample has performed at +382.36 units, 257.89 units WORSE than the final 7/5 results (this is WITHOUT the use of his ML filter, it could be that it has performed even worse than this with the filter included due to bigger losses).

To Summarize:
* Skip series starting in October
* The A bet must lose by 3.5 points to the spread, not just 3, to be an official B/C play. Pushes with 3.5 are also a no play (see example).
* Place to win 7 units on the B bet. If that loses, place your C bet to win back your loss +5 units. If that loses, the series is over. Expect about 7 losses per season on average!
* A lost series is -21.65 units to the roll. Plan accordingly.

So brings the end of this post. Before I go I should note that this method is also profitable if you buy 2pts on the B/C bet. You will experience a few less losses per season, but the losses you still incur will be more costly. In the end, I would just not buy points. This method is incredibly profitable and incredibly easy to play, just be disciplined enough to make the C when you need to. I leave you now with these words: play with confidence my friends, knowing that your playing the most profitable way to play the JM system to date!!!

Thanks for reading and points are appreciated!

PS I am starting work on a version of the 7/5 method for On3's MLB homestand system. I ran a quick test through last years results and the initial impressions look good. More info on this as the MLB season approaches.

**Maxi_EV** · 02-11-12, 05:33 PM

thelimit0310

Good job! Thanks!

I was also on On3's MLB Home Fav backtest.

I have 2004 & 2005 results playing BC-7/5.
I have both ML & RL compared. (RL for higher than -190)

I haven't filtered with o/u 9.

Thanks again.

**ChiLLx** · 02-11-12, 05:44 PM

Incredible work! Has anyone backtested 7/5 for this season so far? Just curious for the results.

**Maxi_EV** · 02-11-12, 05:45 PM

thelimit0310

What is the worst downswing inside one season? In other words, how many units are needed if we were to start a season with this downswing?

**Sandwich** · 02-11-12, 06:06 PM

First off, awesome work. Really appreciate you taking the time to backtest the seasons.

Just a few quick questions, don't feel obligated to answer them.

1. Was wagering 7/5 on the B/C instead of A/B more reliable?

2. I am currently playing the JM series at 8/6 on the B/C bets, it's been very profitable so far. The loss per series would be 25.08 units. How do you feel about upping the 7/5 by 1 unit? I would imagine there would be a threshold point where the risk would outweigh the reward. Similar to diminishing returns.

Just a few thoughts.

**casdio** · 02-11-12, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by ChiLLx

Incredible work! Has anyone backtested 7/5 for this season so far? Just curious for the results.

I used it (with 3 points bought) from 31/01/2012 to 04/02/2012 (stopped here to see the results of the tests) and I was up 17 units

**Wallco99** · 02-11-12, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by casdio

I used it (with 3 points bought) from 31/01/2012 to 04/02/2012 (stopped here to see the results of the tests) and I was up 17 units

Losses are much too expensive with 3 points bought or M/L. All -110 is the way to go here.

**Wallco99** · 02-11-12, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by Sandwich

First off, awesome work. Really appreciate you taking the time to backtest the seasons.

Just a few quick questions, don't feel obligated to answer them.

1. Was wagering 7/5 on the B/C instead of A/B more reliable?

2. I am currently playing the JM series at 8/6 on the B/C bets, it's been very profitable so far. The loss per series would be 25.08 units. How do you feel about upping the 7/5 by 1 unit? I would imagine there would be a threshold point where the risk would outweigh the reward. Similar to diminishing returns.

Just a few thoughts.

1. B and C was more profitable, the tests were run both ways and B/C came out on top. A/B had some devastating seasons.

2. My opinion is 7/5 is the threshold, at 21.67 units per loss, it is the closest you will get to a JM traditional loss. Obviously the more you wager the more you can win, but the losing seasons will also be that much higher. I have been playing 7/5 for a few weeks with no filters except the A losing by 3 points to the spread, doing very well so far.

**MoneyOnBball** · 02-11-12, 06:20 PM

Long-time follower of this thread here...

Quick question for TheLimit (or anyone else who knows): In your tests, how did you handle 6 game road trips? I assume the first three games are played as our series, and the second three games are not played and are ignored?

And thanks for taking the time to back-test this...I was running my own back-tests and it took about an hour each season and gave me headaches since its very tedious stuff.

**1gamer** · 02-11-12, 06:28 PM

7/5...Nicely done.

The A bet must lose by > than 3.5 to be an official B/C play?

**casdio** · 02-11-12, 06:34 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Losses are much too expensive with 3 points bought or M/L. All -110 is the way to go here.

That's why I stopped

**Wallco99** · 02-11-12, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by 1gamer

7/5...Nicely done.

The A bet must lose by > than or = to 3.5 to be an official B/C play?

Well, it can't really be equal to it, but you get the gist!

**1gamer** · 02-11-12, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Well, it can't really be equal to it, but you get the gist!

Should've of been worded 4 or >, but yes it sounds great.

**thelimit0310** · 02-11-12, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

thelimit0310

What is the worst downswing inside one season? In other words, how many units are needed if we were to start a season with this downswing?

The highest amount of losses there's ever been within a period of a month is 4. 1% units should be fine but I would not go higher than that as a loss is = to 22% of your roll.

Can you PM me your 2004-5 results? It would be appreciated.

**thelimit0310** · 02-11-12, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by MoneyOnBball

Long-time follower of this thread here...

Quick question for TheLimit (or anyone else who knows): In your tests, how did you handle 6 game road trips? I assume the first three games are played as our series, and the second three games are not played and are ignored?

And thanks for taking the time to back-test this...I was running my own back-tests and it took about an hour each season and gave me headaches since its very tedious stuff.

Yes, play the first 3 games of the roadtrip and that's all.

**thelimit0310** · 02-11-12, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

1. B and C was more profitable, the tests were run both ways and B/C came out on top. A/B had some devastating seasons.

2. My opinion is 7/5 is the threshold, at 21.67 units per loss, it is the closest you will get to a JM traditional loss. Obviously the more you wager the more you can win, but the losing seasons will also be that much higher. I have been playing 7/5 for a few weeks with no filters except the A losing by 3 points to the spread, doing very well so far.

I have to agree with Wallco here Sandwich. Remember at 1% units a loss at 7/5 is about 22% of your roll. It would be even worse at 8/6+, at some point you have to play less than 1%. And when that happens it's entirely possible you make less money despite making more units.

**thelimit0310** · 02-11-12, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by ChiLLx

Incredible work! Has anyone backtested 7/5 for this season so far? Just curious for the results.

It is currently +101.35 units this season without any filters. Unless the Detroit loss could have been prevented by the half point filter, this season with filters is either equal to that number or slightly less than it. That makes the method +741.6 since 2003. About +92.7 units a season. By this seasons end I will do a proper backtest for this season as well, since I was not able to keep proper records from the beginning.

**Wilba** · 02-11-12, 07:15 PM

Great job with the backtest guys. Thanks a lot some great info there

**stevex** · 02-11-12, 07:19 PM

Lets get a couple wins tonight fellas!!

**Wallco99** · 02-11-12, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Lets get a couple wins tonight fellas!!

In case you missed the update, there are NO valuable plays tonight. Good luck with those 1 unit A's. I'll wait for the 7 unit B's

**Nino7** · 02-11-12, 07:26 PM

how did u pick he number 7/5...Why not 8/4 or 7/6?? is there any mathematical background?

**Wallco99** · 02-11-12, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by Nino7

how did u pick he number 7/5...Why not 8/4 or 7/6?? is there any mathematical background?

I was playing 1-3-5, thelimit suggested 5/7, sort of taking a combo of what I was doing and Wilba's method of playing B&C only for more units. It did better than my 1-3-5. When I started looking at the # of B bets in relation to C bets, I felt switching his #'s around would make us even more profit thus playing 7 on the B and 5 on the C. As I thought, it did even better. 8/6 loss total is too high for my liking, 7/5 seems like a happy medium. You can go as high as you want, but unless you have an unlimited bankroll, you need to limit your BR exposure as much as possible, and still turn a decent profit.

**1gamer** · 02-11-12, 07:47 PM

Originally posted by Nino7

how did u pick he number 7/5...Why not 8/4 or 7/6?? is there any mathematical background?

Mars aligned with Jupiter on July 5, and hence 7/5 was born

**ClevelandNextYr** · 02-11-12, 08:51 PM

Wallco are you playing this method with any of the other systems?

**stevex** · 02-11-12, 08:52 PM

A bets ftwww!!!

**thelimit0310** · 02-11-12, 09:01 PM

Stevex I think your being pretty stubborn about the A bets and I'm not sure why. But I won't force you into making more money!

**dlunc3** · 02-11-12, 09:29 PM

Thelimit, just to verify what I am assuming.... is your backtesting from all 3 JM versions? If so, did you notice a big difference between the three?

**stevex** · 02-11-12, 09:33 PM

Hey Wallco..

I will gladly take the money I won with the philly A bet tonight

hahaha. such a joke.

**thelimit0310** · 02-11-12, 09:40 PM

Yes Dlunc it's all 3 versions

**1gamer** · 02-11-12, 09:45 PM

CASH THE NUGGETS!

**1gamer** · 02-11-12, 09:53 PM

All (A) bets for all 3 versions this season are 29-20. I consider this a winning record. I guess I'm just not seeing the connection between skipping (A) bets, and playing 7/5 starting with the (B) bet with a ATS losses of 4 or >. Why can't you do both?

**alexknyc** · 02-11-12, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by 1gamer

All (A) bets for all 3 versions this season are 29-20. I consider this a winning record.

Well, that's part of the problem right there. You can tell NOTHING about profitability by a straight W-L record.

I can go 1-5 but show a profit depending on how much I bet on which bet. Conversely, I can go 5-1 and be down for the night.