John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[Wilba]

Not for me it didn't...I bet all 6 teams and I'm only down 2 units.

Dude, you do realise that being down 2 units on a night that a big C bet cashed and a few A bets lost is a TERRIBLE result right!?

If you were playing the system any proper way you would have been up ~+10 units from tonight, (even playing the As) not -2 units.

Are you starting to get it now? You blew what should have been a huge C win on the Bobcats by parlaying the Bobcats with NO. So for you, what should have been a huge win becomes a one unit loss! Why on earth would you do that!? And afterwards why would you say it like a good thing that you are down units on a night where everyone else cashed big!?

[Wilba]

How can people come up with new systems everyday!?!?!?
I've been working on a couple of my own for so many time!!!

Please guys, go backtest your ideas on a couple of seasons and comeback with SERIOUS numbers!

Is it really that recent loss that triggered all of this?

Tell me about it Maxi.. Drives me crazy - people see a one week trend and think "oh, that will make a good system!" and post about it. Then they backtest 3 months and say "Hey! This system/system variation went 18-0 in the last 3 months, therefore it's a winner!

No clue about needing to backtest thousands of examples before you have any meaningful data..

[Nino7]

***

[thelimit0310]

JM Feb 4

V3 OKC +6 @ San Antonio (A) LOSS
V3 HOUSTON +5 @ Minnesota (A) LOSS
V1 LA CLIPPERS -5.5 @ Washington (A) WIN
V3 DALLAS -2.5 @ Cleveland (A) LOSS
V1 CHARLOTTE +13 @ Phoenix (C) WIN

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 9-5
B: 2-3
C: 3-0

Version 2
A: 2-2
B: 2-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 17-12
B: 6-3
C: 2-1
DET 1/28-1/31

Totals
A: 28-19
B: 10-6
C: 5-1

JM Feb 5

No Plays

[Kalibongo]

This guy has his own system?

[Maxi_EV]

Tell me about it Maxi.. Drives me crazy - people see a one week trend and think "oh, that will make a good system!" and post about it. Then they backtest 3 months and say "Hey! This system/system variation went 18-0 in the last 3 months, therefore it's a winner!

No clue about needing to backtest thousands of examples before you have any meaningful data..

Yeah...

[hagball52]

Look what JM sent me. There is no link. Don't know if he's selling or giving.

James,

First, congrats on cashing in big time on the NBA bet with
Charlotte! Our undefeated NBA season is well under way. I am
entirely convinced that we're going to go through this entire
season without ever suffering a single loss!

Now, the biggest sporting event of the year happens TODAY, and
it is without question the most opportunistic time to ever cash
in on sports! I have inside info to the league, and more than
ever, I've used my inside info to wreak havoc on the sportsbooks
all season long! Just how accurate has my inside info been you ask?

I correctly predicted that the Giants would play against the
Patriots for the Super Bowl before it ever happened! But hold
on, it gets even better:

I correctly predicted that before the Super Bowl is to be played,
the Conference Championships would be played between the Ravens,
Patriots, 49ers, and Giants. ALL of my predictions were spot-on!

As a matter of fact, my NFL picks have been so startlingly accurate
that the ONLY single time I have had a wrong pick during the course
of the entire NFL playoffs was back in the Denver vs Pittsburgh game,
where I incorrectly picked Pittsburgh in a game that went down to the
wire! Since then, I've won everything single other pick!

Today is the final game of the NFL playoffs. It's the Super Bowl
James. The one single biggest opportunity to sports betting
riches, simply for the fact that there is no other sporting event where
wagering limits are higher. To cash in right now on my sure-fire
Super Bowl pick, just go to:

[IMG]chrome://litmus-ff/skin/small/lvl2.png[/IMG]http://www.sportsbettingchamp.com/super-bowl

All the best,
John Morrison, PhD

[alexknyc]

He's selling. He wants $20 for his pick.

[1gamer]

Dude, you do realise that being down 2 units on a night that a big C bet cashed and a few A bets lost is a TERRIBLE result right!? If you were playing the system any proper way you would have been up ~+10 units from tonight, (even playing the As) not -2 units. Are you starting to get it now? You blew what should have been a huge C win on the Bobcats by parlaying the Bobcats with NO. So for you, what should have been a huge win becomes a one unit loss! Why on earth would you do that!? And afterwards why would you say it like a good thing that you are down units on a night where everyone else cashed big!?

I was never on JM's Bobcats series anyway, so it makes no difference to me. I hope you correct that everyone cashed the (C) bet on the Bobcats series, however, the posts in this thread show otherwise.

I'm just sayin

[Wilba]

Whether you played the A and B or not, you threw away a big C win. C bets V1 have nearly 80% hit rate with points so it's irrelevant whether you played A/B or not, the point is you threw away a good opportunity by parlaying it with a mediocre toss of the coin bet.
Some people filtered out / chose not to play the Bobcats series. But for people that played the system traditionally, everyone DID cash big.

you will work it out eventually.. "I'm just sayin"

[Wilba]

This guy has his own system?

hahaha !!!

[1gamer]

Whether you played the A and B or not, you threw away a big C win. C bets V1 have nearly 80% hit rate with points so it's irrelevant whether you played A/B or not, the point is you threw away a good opportunity by parlaying it with a mediocre toss of the coin bet. Some people filtered out / chose not to play the Bobcats series. But for people that played the system traditionally, everyone DID cash big. you will work it out eventually.. "I'm just sayin"

And the next opportunity to cash on another JM (C) or a Chase -110 (D) bet is just days away, so I'm not going to "sweat" the missed opportunity last night. I'll leave that to you.

I'm just saying

[Wallco99]

Dude, you do realise that being down 2 units on a night that a big C bet cashed and a few A bets lost is a TERRIBLE result right!?

If you were playing the system any proper way you would have been up ~+10 units from tonight, (even playing the As) not -2 units.

Are you starting to get it now? You blew what should have been a huge C win on the Bobcats by parlaying the Bobcats with NO. So for you, what should have been a huge win becomes a one unit loss! Why on earth would you do that!? And afterwards why would you say it like a good thing that you are down units on a night where everyone else cashed big!?

I tried to tell him, but he is convinced on the parlays.

[Wallco99]

Look what JM sent me. There is no link. Don't know if he's selling or giving.

James,

First, congrats on cashing in big time on the NBA bet with
Charlotte! Our undefeated NBA season is well under way. I am
entirely convinced that we're going to go through this entire
season without ever suffering a single loss!

Now, the biggest sporting event of the year happens TODAY, and
it is without question the most opportunistic time to ever cash
in on sports! I have inside info to the league, and more than
ever, I've used my inside info to wreak havoc on the sportsbooks
all season long! Just how accurate has my inside info been you ask?

I correctly predicted that the Giants would play against the
Patriots for the Super Bowl before it ever happened! But hold
on, it gets even better:

I correctly predicted that before the Super Bowl is to be played,
the Conference Championships would be played between the Ravens,
Patriots, 49ers, and Giants. ALL of my predictions were spot-on!

As a matter of fact, my NFL picks have been so startlingly accurate
that the ONLY single time I have had a wrong pick during the course
of the entire NFL playoffs was back in the Denver vs Pittsburgh game,
where I incorrectly picked Pittsburgh in a game that went down to the
wire! Since then, I've won everything single other pick!

Today is the final game of the NFL playoffs. It's the Super Bowl
James. The one single biggest opportunity to sports betting
riches, simply for the fact that there is no other sporting event where
wagering limits are higher. To cash in right now on my sure-fire
Super Bowl pick, just go to:

[IMG]chrome://litmus-ff/skin/small/lvl2.png[/IMG]http://www.sportsbettingchamp.com/super-bowl

All the best,
John Morrison, PhD

Mine had a link, he's selling the pick for $20

[1gamer]

I tried to tell him, but he is convinced on the parlays.

I'm testing the parlay system for now, but fully willing to abandone it a moments notice. But either way; "It's All Good". I've enjoyed the recent JM (A) winning streak run, I'm up + units using both these systems, and I've benefited alot from the knowlege in this thread. BOL to anyone who plays these Systems.

[juice050]

Mine had a link, he's selling the pick for $20

call me stupid fellas i payed the measly 20 bucks and his pick was to take pats money line.

[ChiLLx]

call me stupid fellas i payed the measly 20 bucks and his pick was to take pats money line.

What genius insight from JM

[juice050]

What genius insight from JM

lmaoooooooo hey f it.. i spend 20 dollars on bs all day.. i figured hey wtf i have to lose. i was already on patriots money line any way lmaooo. im nyc but i hate the giants.

[shinnman]

call me stupid fellas i payed the measly 20 bucks and his pick was to take pats money line.

so whats the B bet

[juice050]

so whats the B bet

like i said u idiot i was gonna take pats anyway. get ya money you petty system motherfucka. i have money off of these systems to blow a simple 20 dollers. your not in my league * boy.

[hagball52]

So JM goes down in a blaze of glory. lol. I didn't want to know what he had because I already had made my bet. I lost but so did he. I had one prop bet that won. It was on the Pats rushing total under 104.5. Back to basketball and hockey. GL everyone.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 29-1 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +10.55 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-3.20 units)

v1 Plays
(A) 22-9
(B) 3-6
(C) 2-3
(D) 2-1

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (2/6/12):
#30 Sacramento @ New Orleans (**) (C) (8:05 pm EST)

** Denotes line not available at time of post

We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[COBRA31]

JM B - C Bets v Regular A - C Bets:
Buy 3 points (odds -182 or 1.55). No ML bets

Series total risk:
A-C, to win 1 unit: 21.45
B-C to win 3 units: 20.86

42 JM series completed so far, to Feb 4.
results:
41-1 (although the lost series was probably not an official JM series. For the purposes of this comparison it doesn't really matter)
See posts from thelimit0310 (good work, buddy) for details.

A-C Bets = 41 wins x 1 unit minus 1 loss @ 21.45 units = 19.55 units profit.

A Bet failures: 17 occasions (59.5% success rate).

B-C Bets = 16 wins x 3 units minus 1 loss @ 20.86 units = 27.14 units profit.

B Bet failures: 4 occasions (76% success rate)
C Bet failures: 1 occasion (75% success rate)

We are approx one third of the way through the regular season. The B&C bettors have 7 units of additional profit to soften the blow after the recent series failure.

Current stats continue to support historical data that time and money is wasted by betting from the A Bet.

More stats next Saturday.
Good luck to all, whatever your strategy
Kev
<!-- / message --><!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

Hmm....I was looking over this post and there are some things I wanted to address

1) Isn't a sereis loss for A-C bets for 1 unit only 18.1 unit loss and not 21.45 units ?
2) I assume you are using the record of A) 27-16, B) 10-5, C) 4-1....Where did you get 16 wins for the B-C bets ?
3) If 1 & 2 are correct...then A-C 1 unit Bets are actually up 1.7 Units over the B-C bets for 3 unit win.
4) If you played the above record in point 2..using 1, 3, 5 bet strategy you would be up 20 Units over the B-C bets..so almost double.

I think the question is really what bet strategy to apply rather than is A bet a waste of time. Example: if you played the record in piont 2 at -110 buying no points using A-C for 2 units win on each bet you would be at 35.7 units and that is taking 3 loses so far. This would only be risking 14.1 Units on a lost series. It is also with an A bet win % of 59%...which appears to be the norm for the JM System ? You could not get close to the 35.7 units win without those 27 A bet wins.

In the above and in point 4...you bet the A bet and you make lots more profit than just going B-C. I think the effort needs to be in tweaking the units bet for each strategy. In the end, if my A loses..it is picked up in a B or C win. You waste a lot of potenial profits by just ignoring the A bet all together.

If my excel formulas are accurate...this should all be very sound. However...I don't claim to be perfect, so someone let me know if I'm off base on this thinking.

[riverja]

Wallco, first off much appreciation for all the work you do. I was wondering, since you seem to backtest all angles...have you tried backtesting underdogs only and taking the M/L out of the equation??

[norseman23]

like i said u idiot i was gonna take pats anyway. get ya money you petty system motherfucka. i have money off of these systems to blow a simple 20 dollers. your not in my league f\*g boy.

you*
going to*
your*
you're*

Fixed those for you

[juice050]

you*
going to*
your*
you're*

Fixed those for you

why are you all on my c.ock? is this a spelling bee? i can spell words how i want you bum ass motherfucka. worry about winning money instead of my writing.

[Maxi_EV]

[Joey1031]

so tonight, its

OKC PK
Houston +6½

Correct? Both B's?

[djluvr]

Didnt new Orleans beat Detroit for B bet win?

[norseman23]

Didnt new Orleans beat Detroit for B bet win?

They did not. They lost 89-87. Brutal game to watch

[J.M. Disciple]

Hmm....I was looking over this post and there are some things I wanted to address

1) Isn't a sereis loss for A-C bets for 1 unit only 18.1 unit loss and not 21.45 units ?
2) I assume you are using the record of A) 27-16, B) 10-5, C) 4-1....Where did you get 16 wins for the B-C bets ?
3) If 1 & 2 are correct...then A-C 1 unit Bets are actually up 1.7 Units over the B-C bets for 3 unit win.
4) If you played the above record in point 2..using 1, 3, 5 bet strategy you would be up 20 Units over the B-C bets..so almost double.

I think the question is really what bet strategy to apply rather than is A bet a waste of time. Example: if you played the record in piont 2 at -110 buying no points using A-C for 2 units win on each bet you would be at 35.7 units and that is taking 3 loses so far. This would only be risking 14.1 Units on a lost series. It is also with an A bet win % of 59%...which appears to be the norm for the JM System ? You could not get close to the 35.7 units win without those 27 A bet wins.

In the above and in point 4...you bet the A bet and you make lots more profit than just going B-C. I think the effort needs to be in tweaking the units bet for each strategy. In the end, if my A loses..it is picked up in a B or C win. You waste a lot of potenial profits by just ignoring the A bet all together.

If my excel formulas are accurate...this should all be very sound. However...I don't claim to be perfect, so someone let me know if I'm off base on this thinking.

A-B-C PLAYER

A) $182 to win $100
B) $513 to win $282
C) $1447 to win $795

Total Risk $2,142

Based on 1.82 odds or -182 (After buying 3 points)
------------------------------------------------------------------
B&C pLayers (bet to win 3 units per series Skipping A bets)

B) $546 to win $300

C) $1540 to win $846

Risk: $2,086
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Player 1-3-5

A) $110 to win $100
B) $451 to win $410
C) $1,167 to win $1,061
Risk: $1728

A is 1.1 to win 100; B is the $110 loss on A + trying to win 3 units; C is A+B loss + trying to win 5 units.

***If anyone else about the math please refer back to this post***

Points appreciated.
+2
+2
+2

Thanks =P

[Maxi_EV]

Where is thelimit today?
The plays?

[DollarBill10]

so tonight, its

OKC PK
Houston +6½

Correct? Both B's?

I have these 2 as B bets and also the Spurs as an A bet...

[J.M. Disciple]

There was some one in this forum that said they play poker quite a bit. I took live poker back up recently coming from a low stake professional grinder online and now transitioning into live games. I have good results so far at $1/$2/$2 averaging $39/hr over 24hrs, but Idk what the long run holds for me. I have heard good players average between $25-$30/hr long run depending on location of casino, tips, rake, etc...

If you play poker for a living or know more stats about live games please share some details or message me. I know I play at bay 101 in San jose near my house and rake is $5 cap for $1/$2/$2. There are about 30 hands / hr so it cost about $15 a hour in rake for each player. I guess I am doing quite well so far, but would like to have at least 500 hours of play in to even start assuming what I would average / hr at $1/2/2.

Thanks
JMD

[J.M. Disciple]

Pretty easy to check the current games today and do some of your own research guys. The limit should post, but dont always need to be spoon fed to find out what the plays are.

Good Luck on the plays today Gents

--JMD

Remember avoid A bets when buying 3 points cause they are long run losers. Stats have been provided several times in this forum on it. Playing to win 3 units from B&C has been a proven winner and more profitable long run each season.