John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[nitsuj378]

Your entire series would be a 70 units loss?
What odds did you get for previous bets?

Maxi

70 units was just an estimate since I was walking out the door to work when I posted. I just got home and looked and my total risk had the Knicks lost would have been 81.65 units. My odds were...

A: Knicks M/L -340
B: Knicks M/L -200
C: Knicks +2.5 -102
D: Knicks M/L -210

Kinda rough I know but I trust the system and am not scared to pull the trigger. Looks like the Knicks came through as well as Buffalo in NHL Gold. Helluva night overall. Hope you got in on some of this as well.

[Kev the Brit]

..... had the Knicks lost would have been 81.65 units. My odds were... A: Knicks M/L -340 B: Knicks M/L -200 C: Knicks +2.5 -102 D: Knicks M/L -210 Kinda rough I know but I trust the system and am not scared to pull the trigger.

And its for this reason that the Chase110 investor should anticipate that good teams (on a short losing streak) will be on the ML for a few games. The investor must therefore tailor his unit value at the A Bet to ensure that his exposure to the bookmaker is not excessive in the later stages of the series. 80 units at 0.5%BR is acceptable to me (with a solid system) but 80 units at 1% BR would be ridiculous (even with a solid system). We shouldn't get critical of the system risk, rather we should be critical of high BR% exposure.

So, although last night was "helluva of a night", yes, for the system's stats etc, but over the series no-one should have increased his BR by any noticeable amount.

Kev

[nitsuj378]

And its for this reason that the Chase110 investor should anticipate that good teams (on a short losing streak) will be on the ML for a few games. The investor must therefore tailor his unit value at the A Bet to ensure that his exposure to the bookmaker is not excessive in the later stages of the series. 80 units at 0.5%BR is acceptable to me (with a solid system) but 80 units at 1% BR would be ridiculous (even with a solid system). We shouldn't get critical of the system risk, rather we should be critical of high BR% exposure.

So, although last night was "helluva of a night", yes, for the system's stats etc, but over the series no-one should have increased his BR by any noticeable amount.

Kev

Kev

Excellent points. I invest in many systems at one time which has potential for excessive exposure to the bookmaker if I am not careful. I play each system for %.25 of my BR. That way I don't spread myself to thin. An 80 unit loss at %.25 would not be that devasting to the BR as it would be to the system. The Knicks being high juice for 3 outof the 4 games was brutal but you are correct, high BR exposure can be devasating to anyone. My money management skills is what has kept me in this game as long as I have.

P.S. My "helluva night" included wins from other systems I invest in so I was happy to see some more run good.

Justin

[Wallco99]

About the question, I dont know why I didnt mark it as a win in my notebook,,,But you stop me in a big error,,Thanks

Not for the people following you. You posted it as a play and they lost money. Now what? One more little peice of advice, if you are going to run a chase system, and post plays on a thread for other people to follow, I sure as hell wouldn't be doing it out of a notebook!

[Wallco99]

Moved Results to first page

[Kev the Brit]

Kev Excellent points. I invest in many systems at one time which has potential for excessive exposure to the bookmaker if I am not careful. I play each system for %.25 of my BR. That way I don't spread myself to thin. An 80 unit loss at %.25 would not be that devasting to the BR as it would be to the system. The Knicks being high juice for 3 outof the 4 games was brutal but you are correct, high BR exposure can be devasating to anyone. My money management skills is what has kept me in this game as long as I have. P.S. My "helluva night" included wins from other systems I invest in so I was happy to see some more run good. Justin

Yes, I too had a good night with 9-0 sweep (1 D Bet, 1 C Bet, 2 B Bets, 5 A Bets) but my total exposure was (only!?) 60%, which is unusual although unavoidable due to the concurrence of the C and D Bets. In my early days it was not unusual for me to go all-in on a C Bet. I've learned since then....


PS. My systems are JM NBA B/C (100%), JM NHL V1 (ugh), Wallco NHL Gold (100% for me since joining at Xmas), Wallco NBA (100%), Hedgepeth NBA & NHL (both 100%), Jones NBA Triple Play (100%) and my own NBA "Daily Dog Chase" (which is also 100% so far this season). All are based on an absolute max of 1% BR, compounded, with reductions when appropriate (as discussed above)

[Kev the Brit]

Not for the people following you. You posted it as a play and they lost money. Now what? One more little peice of advice, if you are going to run a chase system, and post plays on a thread for other people to follow, I sure as hell wouldn't be doing it out of a notebook!

Easy Tiger, a notebook can be a very powerful laptop. But, yes, I completely agree that there is a huge responsibilty on the system designer to be accurate and not miss 2 A Bets, hint ;-). Well done yesterday, by the way

[Wallco99]

I agree, the problem is that I believe he means a pen and an actual notebook. At least that's how it seems so far. I would have caught those two games before tipoff. I guess the NYK was all my brain could process @ 5 : 00 A. M.

[Maxi_EV]

And its for this reason that the Chase110 investor should anticipate that good teams (on a short losing streak) will be on the ML for a few games. The investor must therefore tailor his unit value at the A Bet to ensure that his exposure to the bookmaker is not excessive in the later stages of the series. 80 units at 0.5%BR is acceptable to me (with a solid system) but 80 units at 1% BR would be ridiculous (even with a solid system). We shouldn't get critical of the system risk, rather we should be critical of high BR% exposure.

So, although last night was "helluva of a night", yes, for the system's stats etc, but over the series no-one should have increased his BR by any noticeable amount.

Kev

I have 1 unit as 0.5%. But I still was reluctant to lose 40% of my original roll on a single series. I think that 3 ML bets out of 4 is exceptional and I hope it won't happen soon.
Good job everyone!

[Kev the Brit]

removed

[Kev the Brit]

I have 1 unit as 0.5%. But I still was reluctant to lose 40% of my original roll on a single series. I think that 3 ML bets out of 4 is exceptional and I hope it won't happen soon. Good job everyone!

yeh, it was only because the system is top drawer. The motivation in the team in question to avoid a 7th consecutive embarassment (lose SU and ATS) gives me the confidence to go to 40%BR. I certainly agree that it shouldn't happen too often.

Lets keep this train rolling....

[Kev the Brit]

I agree, the problem is that I believe he means a pen and an actual notebook. At least that's how it seems so far. I would have caught those two games before tipoff. I guess the NYK was all my brain could process @ 5 : 00 A. M.

get some sleep and keep that big brain sharp, buddy. We don't expect you to contribute every hour of the day.

and if you reply to this before 1600 EST, I'm coming over there to kick your ass into bed

[Maxi_EV]

Wallco, when you will have time, it would be interesting to know how many (C) or (D) bets that won on ML also won on -110 in all your backtest seasons. If a lot of them also win, then maybe the slight adjustment to your system could be to bet -110 instead of ML only on (d) and/or (c) bets. If that shows a good record over the years with a few losses, it should be considered. The goal here is not to brag with a "perfect" system that as never lost in x years (like JM bullshit) but maybe to protect the bettors against some sick spots like last night.
On the other hand, if a lot of those (c) or (d) ML wins would have been -110 losses...then forget what I said.

Again, thanks for your work!

[thelimit0310]

JM January 24

V3 NY KNICKS -2 @ Charlotte (A) WIN

*Unofficial* V1 TORONTO +8.5 @ Phoenix (B) WIN

A bets are on an incredible streak!

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 8-4
B: 2-2
C: 2-0

Version 2
A: 1-2
B: 2-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 13-7
B: 5-2
C: 2-0

Totals
A: 22-13
B: 9-4
C: 4-0

Play post will come around 1:00

[thelimit0310]

JM January 25

V3 INDIANA +11.5 @ Chicago (A)

*Unofficial* NEW JERSEY +11.5 @ Philadelphia (B)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

[J.M. Disciple]

I need to stop reading all these pages, makes me want to start betting again when I know i shouldn't! Great discussion and great wins. Ive been reading every post in here and you all are doing great! I often have to read 3-4 pages at a time, but I like to keep up to date with the systems, so i know exactly what to follow for next season.

Chase 110 at .5% is reasonable.
JM 1-3-5 (with 7/5 Pending)
Wallco Gold


I think those 3 should be enough and all I should follow with 1% = 1 unit. As Wallco stated rather have lesser bets with bigger wins then more bets with smaller wins. Hopefully I have nice chunk of change to follow for next season. NHL, NBA, MLB... Idk about any other systems I want to follow.

Wallco is the man and look to follow what ever systems he comes up with. Of course I will be seeking money management tips from him as well for next seasons.

Also there was talk about making a living off sports betting pages back, but didn't get much of an answer besides needing 100s of thousands off seas. I do not find that too be true. If you have a big enough bankroll depending on where you live and your spending budget, i believe someone with say $50k bankroll could pretty easily make a living off sports betting. Of course taxes will play a big part on that.

$50k bankroll with .5% of it as your unit size ($250) You just need to net roughly 20 units a month. If you use 1% as your unit size then maybe just 10 units a month. I believe Wallco combined with JM together is enough systems to net well over 10 units a month.

for a $250 unit size or .5% of bankroll of $50k that is $5k profit each month or $60k a year. I'm guessing there is about a 30% tax bracket for sports betting some times higher, which will still net you roughly $40k a year for less then 1 hr a work a day. There are ways around taxes if your sneaky, but idk if its worth the jail time. IRS always wins long run. Its always good to have actual job on the side working part time and driving a really nice benz ;-)

Good Luck on tonight Gents
--JMD--

Feel free to share your story if you do make a living off sports betting or if my numbers are way off let me know as well. I'll read more on this forum tomorrow.

GL HF.

[dlunc3]

I need to stop reading all these pages, makes me want to start betting again when I know i shouldn't! Great discussion and great wins. Ive been reading every post in here and you all are doing great! I often have to read 3-4 pages at a time, but I like to keep up to date with the systems, so i know exactly what to follow for next season.

Chase 110 at .5% is reasonable.
JM 1-3-5 (with 7/5 Pending)
Wallco Gold


I think those 3 should be enough and all I should follow with 1% = 1 unit. As Wallco stated rather have lesser bets with bigger wins then more bets with smaller wins. Hopefully I have nice chunk of change to follow for next season. NHL, NBA, MLB... Idk about any other systems I want to follow.

Wallco is the man and look to follow what ever systems he comes up with. Of course I will be seeking money management tips from him as well for next seasons.

Also there was talk about making a living off sports betting pages back, but didn't get much of an answer besides needing 100s of thousands off seas. I do not find that too be true. If you have a big enough bankroll depending on where you live and your spending budget, i believe someone with say $50k bankroll could pretty easily make a living off sports betting. Of course taxes will play a big part on that.

$50k bankroll with .5% of it as your unit size ($250) You just need to net roughly 20 units a month. If you use 1% as your unit size then maybe just 10 units a month. I believe Wallco combined with JM together is enough systems to net well over 10 units a month.

for a $250 unit size or .5% of bankroll of $50k that is $5k profit each month or $60k a year. I'm guessing there is about a 30% tax bracket for sports betting some times higher, which will still net you roughly $40k a year for less then 1 hr a work a day. There are ways around taxes if your sneaky, but idk if its worth the jail time. IRS always wins long run. Its always good to have actual job on the side working part time and driving a really nice benz ;-)

Good Luck on tonight Gents
--JMD--

Feel free to share your story if you do make a living off sports betting or if my numbers are way off let me know as well. I'll read more on this forum tomorrow.

GL HF.

Not always true man.. i wish it was that easy.... had my roll to 45k two summers ago.. went almost bust before stopping and starting over at 7k (doing less the 1% per unit).

Its a tough business, especially with chasing involved like this thread is about.

Im grinding my way back up closer to 30k again... and hate to say it, but will never chase again.. at least no more then 2 games. There is a reason chasing has such a bad name to it.. No matter how great the system, they will all have their bad moments.. I love the new ideas in this thread. The two game chase is the way to go if possible.. I look foward to seeing wallcos results. I wish I could help.. but unfortunately I still have a real job thats eats up all my time haha

BOL

[J.M. Disciple]

A lot of gamblers are out of shape so any good health tips or daily regiments would be appreciated. I know it has nothing to do with JM or Wallco's systems, but we are all online buds here, so healthy conversation is always good. For those not interested just scroll through and find Thelimit or Wallco's post and ignore everyone else.

I am actually in pretty decent shape, but i eat a lot of junk and dont work out. I guess i am some what blessed not to be obese with everything I eat. I am looking to get into better shape probably with P90x or some of my own workouts. I do have a gym membership but usually only go 1 or 2 times a week to play basketball.

One thing exercise does have to do with JM and Wallco is that great exercise will actually help control your sports betting in a way. The stress relieve caused from working out helps you feel more relaxed when you lose 20 units in the same night. I would like to hear what some of you do to keep in shape when your away from sports betting.

--JMD

[J.M. Disciple]

Not always true man.. i wish it was that easy.... had my roll to 45k two summers ago.. went almost bust before stopping and starting over at 7k (doing less the 1% per unit).

Its a tough business, especially with chasing involved like this thread is about.

Im grinding my way back up closer to 30k again... and hate to say it, but will never chase again.. at least no more then 2 games. There is a reason chasing has such a bad name to it.. No matter how great the system, they will all have their bad moments.. I love the new ideas in this thread. The two game chase is the way to go if possible.. I look foward to seeing wallcos results. I wish I could help.. but unfortunately I still have a real job thats eats up all my time haha

BOL

a 90% drop in your bankroll is huge. Did you look back and see what mistakes you made? Some times it is not clear what mistakes your making besides just following a proven system that has had a bad year. My mistake as always is inventing my own systems and trying to follow too many systems at once.

Also for those following all these systems and 1% or 2% or .5% keep coming up. There was a good discussion last year about using a percentage of your bankroll as a unit size and using a set unit size for the entire season.

For those who have smaller bankroll and looking to increase their bankrolls as fast as possible, some times a percentage is best way of doing it. Other times it causes a giant roller coaster ride and hard to keep track of exact unit amounts you are up.

I will follow wallco's advice from last year, maybe it was wilba, but anyways starting next season or when ever I come back I hope to have a big enough bankroll with a set unit amount instead of a percentage. A lot easier to keep track of and you do not have to worry about wiping our your bankroll with a huge knicks loss (if it had happened). If you use 1% great, but later in the season that same 1% may wipe out all your previous profit from earlier in the season.

I think stagnant unit size is best way to do it season to season. Ok thats all from me for today. Good Luck once again Gents.

-JMD

[shinnman]

i just want to say thank you to you guys and i mean that, you have taught me that "gambling" can be fun but also if done properly can be more like an investment, im on a much smaller bank roll but it is growing, jm, dlunc, and wallco i read your post like an investment book, i dont post much but you guys are appreciated

[kdavis]

JMD. Sent you a PM. I didn't want to clutter up this thread with my fitness babble.

[Wallco99]

Wallco, when you will have time, it would be interesting to know how many (C) or (D) bets that won on ML also won on -110 in all your backtest seasons. If a lot of them also win, then maybe the slight adjustment to your system could be to bet -110 instead of ML only on (d) and/or (c) bets. If that shows a good record over the years with a few losses, it should be considered. The goal here is not to brag with a "perfect" system that as never lost in x years (like JM bullshit) but maybe to protect the bettors against some sick spots like last night.
On the other hand, if a lot of those (c) or (d) ML wins would have been -110 losses...then forget what I said.

Again, thanks for your work!

That is actually what I am doing.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 21-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +21.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(1/24/12):
#18 N.Y. Knicks (M/L) (D) - Win
#20 Toronto (+6) (A) - Win
#21 Cleveland (+13½) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 15-6
(B) 2-4
(C) 2-2
(D) 2-0

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (1/25/12):
#22 L.A. Clippers @ L.A. Lakers (M/L) (A) (10:35 pm EST)
#23 Portland @ Golden State (M/L) (A) (10:35 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[stevex]

Remember when the A bets weren't hitting and a few people said "just bet the B and C plays."

Love it ha.

[1gamer]

CASH THE PACERS with +11.5

[norseman23]

Ah, Pacers +11.5 and they win. Cheers to the Lakers and GS coming back.

[norseman23]

Remember when the A bets weren't hitting and a few people said "just bet the B and C plays."

Love it ha.

As with all the sports, the A bets go in streaks. Right now is a huge streak, but remember not too long ago we couldn't win an A if our lives depended on it.

It won't be long until the B/C betters start bragging because they aren't losing the A bets like we are, then the tides will turn again.

[1gamer]

CASH THE LAKESHOW!

CASH THE WARRIORS!

[ChiLLx]

2 more wins

[knugen]

Thx guys! Cashed pacers, nets, Warriors, Lakers!

[COBRA31]

[QUOTE=Wallco99;13438099]That is actually what I am doing.[/


It would be interesting to see when teams turned it around on any of the D bets that have lost during backtesting. For example..did 95% cover in 8th game? Has any went to 9 or 10 + games before either winning or covering the spread.

I am certainly not pushing for a never ending chase...but if you never see 9 or 10 straight loses s/u or ats...then just maybe there is an opportunity to chase further softly and recover some units. I would not suggest trying to get it all back because as we know in sports and gambling..just because it has never happened doesn't mean it can't.

Perhaps..you could start the in theory "E" bet and treat as a new "A" bet and chase the team further. I would think the odds of that team covering in next 4 games is more likely versus a team who just started to slump.

Any similar thoughts on this ?

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 23-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +23.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(1/25/12):
#22 L.A. Lakers (M/L) (A) - Win
#23 Golden State (M/L) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 17-6
(B) 2-4
(C) 2-2
(D) 2-0

V2 Plays
In production


There are no system plays for (1/26/12):

[Wallco99]

Remember when the A bets weren't hitting and a few people said "just bet the B and C plays."

Love it ha.

B/C only, playing 7/5 method, or any method for that matter, will end up well ahead of A B C by season's end. This happened last season as well. People were mentioning B and C only, then A bets went on like a 9 game win streak, and a few people made the comment that you just did. Final result, B and C only finished well ahead of A B C. And it finished even higher for me, because I was playing them all at -110 for 3/3, and some for 3/5, and my losses were cheaper.

[Wallco99]

[quote=COBRA31;13445869]

That is actually what I am doing.[/


It would be interesting to see when teams turned it around on any of the D bets that have lost during backtesting. For example..did 95% cover in 8th game? Has any went to 9 or 10 + games before either winning or covering the spread.

I am certainly not pushing for a never ending chase...but if you never see 9 or 10 straight loses s/u or ats...then just maybe there is an opportunity to chase further softly and recover some units. I would not suggest trying to get it all back because as we know in sports and gambling..just because it has never happened doesn't mean it can't.

Perhaps..you could start the in theory "E" bet and treat as a new "A" bet and chase the team further. I would think the odds of that team covering in next 4 games is more likely versus a team who just started to slump.

Any similar thoughts on this ?

That was one of the initial tests I did when I first started this system. Long losing streaks do happen, and one lost series would wipe out an entire season plus. This is why I cut it off at 4 games, and played M/L on fav's.

[Wallco99]

[quote=COBRA31;13445869]

That is actually what I am doing.[/


It would be interesting to see when teams turned it around on any of the D bets that have lost during backtesting. For example..did 95% cover in 8th game? Has any went to 9 or 10 + games before either winning or covering the spread.

I am certainly not pushing for a never ending chase...but if you never see 9 or 10 straight loses s/u or ats...then just maybe there is an opportunity to chase further softly and recover some units. I would not suggest trying to get it all back because as we know in sports and gambling..just because it has never happened doesn't mean it can't.

Perhaps..you could start the in theory "E" bet and treat as a new "A" bet and chase the team further. I would think the odds of that team covering in next 4 games is more likely versus a team who just started to slump.

Any similar thoughts on this ?

That is what we do. If we lose a D bet, the next bet is an A for that team. But since we never lost, you haven't seen that yet, and hopefully you never will.