LTA's NBA Plays

[Love The Action]

My local just hung 175 on the next Boston/Philly game and when I went to lock in a play at 5x, the website switched down to 5D's opener of 174. Damn.....

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 5/19/2012

Play #1

Thunder (-1) 3x (Locked)

I'm going to take a shot with the zig zag here with a younger team, with seemingly fresher legs and perhaps a bit more hunger than the veteran-laden Lakers. I could be wrong, but I think this is the Thunder's game to lose. Yesterday, the Thunder lost by 3 as 3 point dogs at close. Nevertheless, the books open at or around a PK with immediate money toward OKC. I think early sharp money is rolling with the zig zag here and so am I because I just don't think the free throw disparity will be so distinct this game, nor do I expect a seemingly average Lakers free throw shooting team hit 97% of its attempts two nights in a row. The Thunder were top 5 in the league in drawing fouls and making their foul shots. The Lakers were not even in the picture. I think the season averages play out and OKC asserts itself in this game to give itself an elimination shot at home. I don't think we'll see this much value on OKC again and I am rolling with the Thunder for 3x. Good luck.

[Les_Nuts]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 5/19/2012

Play #1

Thunder (-1) 3x (Locked)

I'm going to take a shot with the zig zag here with a younger team, with seemingly fresher legs and perhaps a bit more hunger than the veteran-laden Lakers. I could be wrong, but I think this is the Thunder's game to lose. Yesterday, the Thunder lost by 3 as 3 point dogs at close. Nevertheless, the books open at or around a PK with immediate money toward OKC. I think early sharp money is rolling with the zig zag here and so am I because I just don't think the free throw disparity will be so distinct this game, nor do I expect a seemingly average Lakers free throw shooting team hit 97% of its attempts two nights in a row. The Thunder were top 5 in the league in drawing fouls and making their foul shots. The Lakers were not even in the picture. I think the season averages play out and OKC asserts itself in this game to give itself an elimination shot at home. I don't think we'll see this much value on OKC again and I am rolling with the Thunder for 3x. Good luck.

Really like this play, I think pinny opened late last night at Lakers -2.5 rather than a PK, which makes the play even stronger because the sharps are seemingly all over them

[CheeseHead]

My local just hung 175 on the next Boston/Philly game and when I went to lock in a play at 5x, the website switched down to 5D's opener of 174. Damn.....

So wouldn't under 174 still qualify for at least a 1x play then or you don't think the total will go any lower?

Also, are you considering playing the Heat again?

[Love The Action]

Really like this play, I think pinny opened late last night at Lakers -2.5 rather than a PK, which makes the play even stronger because the sharps are seemingly all over them

That number never really existed though. They hung -2.5 on the Lakeshow that was at -1 (+108) within 1 minute. No one had a realistic shot at getting that number. The line move was instantaneous.

[Love The Action]

So wouldn't under 174 still qualify for at least a 1x play then or you don't think the total will go any lower?

Also, are you considering playing the Heat again?

Going to wait and see what happens with the line. Hopefully it will go up a half point....

Undecided about the Heat. They are very tough to back because you don't know what to expect out of Wade. If he plays well, they should win. If not, they won't have a chance. As you can see, however, the books are sure respecting them without even thinking before installing them as favorites despite the loss.

[wguan2]

i think okc is the play but the fact that the books opened at 2.5, a larger number than the opener for game 3. i admit, the line move from +2.5 to -1 is evident of something but i dont know that it is sharp money. it could possibly be just money on okc because of the reasons you said, free throw disparity and a seemingly close game that okc should've won. however, we have to keep in mind that this is lakers homecourt and they've been pretty good at home to be dogs.

[Love The Action]

i think okc is the play but the fact that the books opened at 2.5, a larger number than the opener for game 3. i admit, the line move from +2.5 to -1 is evident of something but i dont know that it is sharp money. it could possibly be just money on okc because of the reasons you said, free throw disparity and a seemingly close game that okc should've won. however, we have to keep in mind that this is lakers homecourt and they've been pretty good at home to be dogs.

The game opened at PK at every book except for Pinny. Pinny opened at +-2.5 at 1:45 a.m. That number lasted all of a few minutes and was immediately hit hard. Who do you think is up at 1:45 am waiting to jump on a number and hit it hard? No one can say for sure, but my educated opinion is that it is a number of informed investors who know what they are doing. I know it's not Joe six pack waiting to pound OKC at 1 in the morning, that's for sure.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Lakers

[wguan2]

I can see your point lta. The line only stood for about 15 to 20 minutes. Good luck on your play. I was just wondering why you were playing it for 3 units after losing value on the line and also as you say "you're taking a chance".

[Love The Action]

I can see your point lta. The line only stood for about 15 to 20 minutes. Good luck on your play. I was just wondering why you were playing it for 3 units after losing value on the line and also as you say "you're taking a chance".

I said i was going to take a "shot" not a "chance." Playing aggressive after researching the data is different from rolling the dice. However, we all take a chance every time we make a wager. In addition, I didn't lose value on a number that never existed for me. Semantics aside, the best I and 99% of the market could have done is a pk. My model has OKC -2 and I don't think it's even that close. I expect a 4 point or more victory by OKC tonight and whether I played them at a pk or -1 really does not matter to me considering the worst I can do is a push if I am correct. Consequently, I'll take a shot with OKC for 3x considering you are unlikely to find such value on them again as they will be set at -8 or more going back to OKC.

[Manel88]

The game opened at PK at every book except for Pinny. Pinny opened at +-2.5 at 1:45 a.m. That number lasted all of a few minutes and was immediately hit hard. Who do you think is up at 1:45 am waiting to jump on a number and hit it hard? No one can say for sure, but my educated opinion is that it is a number of informed investors who know what they are doing. I know it's not Joe six pack waiting to pound OKC at 1 in the morning, that's for sure.

LTA, sorry to bother you again but just a question... i understand your point but when you say that at 1:45 pm, the people who are betting are the "best" ones but... you know that in other parts of the world the time is diferent so, it can be like 13:45pm...you understand my point?

I would like you to explain me better about that part of your sentence

[Love The Action]

LTA, sorry to bother you again but just a question... i understand your point but when you say that at 1:45 pm, the people who are betting are the "best" ones but... you know that in other parts of the world the time is diferent so, it can be like 13:45pm...you understand my point?

I would like you to explain me better about that part of your sentence

It's not that complicated nor is it a very significant reason for this play. That was just a small factor to mention more than anything else. People can be too infatuated with line movement as evidenced by the resulting comments from that blurb. With that said, the point of my comment was not about time it was about the type of investor who bets opening numbers. The uninformed casual bettors do not wager on openers no matter what time of the day the line comes out. The only people betting openers are relatively informed investors who have a plan, whether that's looking for an arb or otherwise. The fact remains that early money liked OKC, however, that does not guarantee anything because using line movement as the sole basis for a play is a sure way to blow a BR. In this case, I am interpreting line movement as just one reason to add to my stake on this play. GL.

[WVU9494]

Good point

Lakers

[wguan2]

It's not that complicated nor is it a very significant reason for this play. That was just a small factor to mention more than anything else. People can be too infatuated with line movement as evidenced by the resulting comments from that blurb. With that said, the point of my comment was not about time it was about the type of investor who bets opening numbers. The uninformed casual bettors do not wager on openers no matter what time of the day the line comes out. The only people betting openers are relatively informed investors who have a plan, whether that's looking for an arb or otherwise. The fact remains that early money liked OKC, however, that does not guarantee anything because using line movement as the sole basis for a play is a sure way to blow a BR. In this case, I am interpreting line movement as just one reason to add to my stake on this play. GL.

We're all just trying to learn from you. Thanks for the info you provided and taking the time to do it. Bol on your play!

[aussieH]

Any consideration for the Over on the B2B in the Laker & Thunder game?

[No coincidences]

That number never really existed though. They hung -2.5 on the Lakeshow that was at -1 (+108) within 1 minute. No one had a realistic shot at getting that number. The line move was instantaneous.

It was 2.5 or 2 for at least 15 minutes.

[absolutkaos]

Thunder -1.5 (-110) now on Bet365

[Catchn_Picks]

Thunder -1.5 (-110) now on Bet365

Yea, pretty much now -1.5 across the board on and offshore. I found a cheap line and played in on the money line. I just didn't want to hang that hook.

[WVU9494]

Come on Thunder, get this!!!!!!!!!

[Vinnie Paz]

Big win on the angles last night and then give it all back, and more, on this clowns pick, again

Bro.

Ive seen you come into buddys threads and slam his picks and knock on him for a bad streak, so why is it you continue to follow and go in on his plays? Just comeup with your own, you wont feel as bad/angry about a loss.... or find somebody else to follow.

[Vinnie Paz]

Not to mention thr games still in progress.

[WVU9494]

I'm just messin around vinny, the guy knows his stuff is why I follow him.

[Vinnie Paz]

Hah ok man. Check ur pm too bro

God bless you Durant

[BigBoi]

Nice to have variance on our side for once.

[ph0208]

Durant is a cold blooded killer!

[ses_d]

alright this def. makes up for last nights bs lost on the under!

[WVU9494]

Interested to hear what LTA comes up with but I love the heat Tom (and hate them in general), wade and Lebrun are going to have a killer instinct.

[MrXYZ]

Nice to have variance on our side for once.

The Gambling Gods were kind tonight. Comebacks to cash both plays (was on Spurs too), I still can't believe it! Thanks LTA!

[Love The Action]

Big win on the angles last night and then give it all back, and more, on this clowns pick, again.

More misspelling and bad grammar (improper comma use) from the alleged Phd.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season

135 - 122 = +3.65x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 5/19/2012 Recap

1 - 0 = +3x

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs

15 - 11 = +10.15X

NBA 2011-2012 Season

149 - 133 = +13.8x

Good luck on Sunday.

[Manel88]

It's not that complicated nor is it a very significant reason for this play. That was just a small factor to mention more than anything else. People can be too infatuated with line movement as evidenced by the resulting comments from that blurb. With that said, the point of my comment was not about time it was about the type of investor who bets opening numbers. The uninformed casual bettors do not wager on openers no matter what time of the day the line comes out. The only people betting openers are relatively informed investors who have a plan, whether that's looking for an arb or otherwise. The fact remains that early money liked OKC, however, that does not guarantee anything because using line movement as the sole basis for a play is a sure way to blow a BR. In this case, I am interpreting line movement as just one reason to add to my stake on this play. GL.

Thank you very much LTA...didnt't follow you cause im a Lakers fan...congrats

[Love The Action]

It was 2.5 or 2 for at least 15 minutes.

99% of the market had no access to that number. It was only available at one book -- albeit the most influential -- and only for an extremely small window at an off hour for the largest percentage of investors.

[Love The Action]

Looks like the Heat are getting support from the masses. I see around 70% of all spread and ML wagers backing the Heat. Not that it really matters, but I expected more people to back Indy in this game....

[MikeyD323]

Whats the picks today LTA???