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  • pokerwhiz90
    SBR MVP
    • 10-02-10
    • 2618

    #9241
    we just need memphis to pull through - im pretty sad, i tailed LTA from up 20 to down to 4...... luckily mlb spring training has kept me even, but being even for 2 weeks sucks when i know i could be up 16 units.....

    we just gotta hang in there, i know things are going to turn around
    Comment
    • XGamer
      SBR Rookie
      • 02-05-12
      • 38

      #9242
      Originally posted by pokerwhiz90
      we just need memphis to pull through - im pretty sad, i tailed LTA from up 20 to down to 4...... luckily mlb spring training has kept me even, but being even for 2 weeks sucks when i know i could be up 16 units.....

      we just gotta hang in there, i know things are going to turn around
      Me 2, I started following LTA after all star break, but I didn't break even with spring training! Anyway, i still have faith in LTA, and I know he will come back strong!
      Comment
      • TC Woods
        SBR MVP
        • 12-17-11
        • 1780

        #9243
        Originally posted by XGamer
        Me 2, I started following LTA after all star break, but I didn't break even with spring training! Anyway, i still have faith in LTA, and I know he will come back strong!
        Come back?????

        Comment
        • pokerwhiz90
          SBR MVP
          • 10-02-10
          • 2618

          #9244
          theres a fella called cappinterp in the mlb section, he's 11-0 and ive been tailing him for the last few plays, feels good
          Comment
          • Dmil
            SBR High Roller
            • 01-06-12
            • 138

            #9245
            "This bad run reminds me of last season's MLB when I suffered bad beat after bad beat for the entire month of July which dropped my unit count from about +27x to about +14x. Ask Redscot about last July and he will cringe as almost every loss was attributable to a late inning rally or last pitch homerun or some other unbelievably horrific ending. However, after that horrible month of July and a rocky start to August, we caught fire in the final month of the season and playoffs to take us from that +14x level all the way up to final tally of +43x. "
            This dreadful month is over. Time to make it rain LTA! April showers will bring May flowers
            Comment
            • bmur714
              SBR High Roller
              • 02-10-12
              • 189

              #9246
              Originally posted by TC Woods
              Come back?????

              Exactly...Last time I checked we're still in the black...right? with +4.75x of house money

              Last edited by bmur714; 03-31-12, 10:09 PM.
              Comment
              • alamo
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 02-21-09
                • 7131

                #9247
                LOL at some of the moaners in here. We split the night and all you do is whine.

                Great call LTA on the Grizz.
                Comment
                • absolutkaos
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 12-29-11
                  • 213

                  #9248
                  liking OKC -5.5 in the 1pm game tomorrow against Rose-less Bulls...
                  Comment
                  • XGamer
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 02-05-12
                    • 38

                    #9249
                    Originally posted by bmur714
                    Exactly...Last time I checked we're still in the black...right? with +4.75x of house money

                    Yes, it is still at positive, but I, like many people, followed LTA from 20x. So it is negative for us.
                    Comment
                    • Pick'nParlays
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-22-08
                      • 3134

                      #9250
                      Originally posted by XGamer
                      Yes, it is still at positive, but I, like many people, followed LTA from 20x. So it is negative for us.
                      Comment
                      • IllyPhilly[DOC]
                        SBR MVP
                        • 07-18-10
                        • 2512

                        #9251
                        Over Boston 186.5? LTA. Get some! Let me know.
                        Comment
                        • MrXYZ
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-18-11
                          • 2342

                          #9252
                          Originally posted by XGamer
                          Yes, it is still at positive, but I, like many people, followed LTA from 20x. So it is negative for us.
                          Sorry to hear that, Xgamer. But you really should do your own analysis & use LTA's plays as a reference point rather than just tailing.
                          Comment
                          • BigBurk
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-25-11
                            • 3785

                            #9253
                            True, but I think 90% just follow him blindly. And then with a cold spell start complaining....
                            Comment
                            • H1Cypher
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-25-11
                              • 1494

                              #9254
                              Originally posted by BigBurk
                              True, but I think 90% just follow him blindly. And then with a cold spell start complaining....
                              Doesn't help if anyone started tailing him after a hot run like after he hit +20 units. If hot runs lasted forever LTA would already have retired. I have no reason to blindly tail LTA but I am impressed by his insight. Beating the closer consistently is also pretty impressive trait just by itself.
                              Comment
                              • Love The Action
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-08-10
                                • 10952

                                #9255
                                NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/31/2012

                                1 - 1 = -0.65x

                                NBA 2011-2012 Season

                                117 - 106 = +4.95x

                                Another horrible beat on that philly under but it was a very good play from a market perspective. My model predicted 176.5 and that was where the pinny market closed with us beating the closer by 2.5 points. Plus, we had a 52 point cushion going into the 4th quarter on a 170's total making this play as +ev as you can get. I know I sound like a broken record, but I really dont feel like im slumping because I am making good plays that are just missing in the last seconds because of unusual happenings. I just have to keep making +ev plays and the winners will come. While I can certainly understand the frustration by tailers, I really dont care about the sob stories. Sorry, my sole job is to make money for my family and the ONLY one that has a right to bitch at me about losing plays is my wife. Thanfully, she understands the ups and downs of this business better than some of the so-called "men" around SBR. If you guys dont like the FREE plays, investing wisdom and analysis that I provide on a daily basis, then dont click on the thread. Otherwise, man-the-fuk-up and lets have a great fuking Sunday damnit! I am sick and tired of the bad beats.....April its our turn to get some luck! Lets fuking go!
                                Comment
                                • Love The Action
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-08-10
                                  • 10952

                                  #9256
                                  NBA Regular Season 2011-2012 4/1/2012

                                  Play #1

                                  Celtics/Heat under (186.5) 1.5x (Locked)


                                  This is at least worth a 2x play, but I am waiting for the ref assignments. I will try to post a full writeup later, but I need to finish working on the rest of the card. I have this game set at 182 giving 4.5 points of value and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.
                                  Comment
                                  • Love The Action
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-08-10
                                    • 10952

                                    #9257
                                    Originally posted by absolutkaos
                                    liking OKC -5.5 in the 1pm game tomorrow against Rose-less Bulls...
                                    Agreed...but I would like to get -4 even if I have to pay -120.
                                    Comment
                                    • underal
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 02-27-12
                                      • 224

                                      #9258
                                      LTA,
                                      I dont like to but in but it is a slow time of day and i just gotta say this. I have been at this for many years and I know that the biggest challenge in this business is handling the losing streaks. I remember learning the hard way that chasing is the number one disaster. to me when i see a thread starting with the words "hammering" or "Huge" I know that the guy is an eventual loser. Your attitude here is an invaluable lesson to all of us who want to be serious about this. stay calm and just keep plugging away. NEVER EVER EVER EVER CHASE LOSSES.
                                      Comment
                                      • absolutkaos
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 12-29-11
                                        • 213

                                        #9259
                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                        Agreed...but I would like to get -4 even if I have to pay -120.
                                        i think almost every time youve bought points this year on a side it's been a loss, does that factor into your choice here? I may be wrong but I remember at least a few -120 beats.
                                        Comment
                                        • Blood Drake
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 12-23-11
                                          • 101

                                          #9260
                                          LTA, I started following this thread at a couple of months ago because of your in-depth write ups. Mainly because I am awful at picking totals in basketball, NBA or CBB, so it is nice to get a perspective on betting the total. With that in mind, do you (or your model) only look for Unders? I hate picking the under, but it seems like 80% of the time you are picking the Under. Is that accurate? And if so why do you lean towards the Under?

                                          I don't know if it is the threat of overtime, or the fact that cheering for teams to suck is disheartening, but I really hate putting money on the under. However, I don't want to lose out on good opportunities just because I dislike something. Any advice for me to help me look at betting the Under in a better light?

                                          Also, you often mention that you have X points of value on a play so you are going with that play. Usually, that is only like 2-5 points, isn't that a pretty slim amount of points? That would only be one or two possession. If a team is getting 90+ possessions it is only 2% difference. Likewise, if the total is around 180 then 4 points would also only be around 2% difference. That seems like an awful small margin to be considered an edge. I am sure I am looking at this wrong but I would appreciate any feedback so I can keep improving.
                                          Comment
                                          • Dmil
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 01-06-12
                                            • 138

                                            #9261
                                            Originally posted by underal
                                            LTA,
                                            I dont like to but in but it is a slow time of day and i just gotta say this. I have been at this for many years and I know that the biggest challenge in this business is handling the losing streaks. I remember learning the hard way that chasing is the number one disaster. to me when i see a thread starting with the words "hammering" or "Huge" I know that the guy is an eventual loser. Your attitude here is an invaluable lesson to all of us who want to be serious about this. stay calm and just keep plugging away. NEVER EVER EVER EVER CHASE LOSSES.
                                            Your opinion is he chasing ???
                                            Comment
                                            • unitedlad
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 01-10-12
                                              • 845

                                              #9262
                                              Originally posted by Dmil
                                              Your opinion is he chasing ???
                                              Did you even read his post?
                                              Comment
                                              • unitedlad
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 01-10-12
                                                • 845

                                                #9263
                                                LTA, love the play. Hopped on the u186.5 last night and fully expected it to be down this morning. C's love to slow it down in the big games. Both teams also play great D and hustle hard for every ball. Looking forward to this game personally, being a Celtics fan.
                                                Comment
                                                • dmitean
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 03-30-11
                                                  • 364

                                                  #9264
                                                  I took Thunder -5 the moment it was released without any problems. I believe it will be a blow out. The big line only adds to the confidence in Oklahoma. Bookies want us to bet on Chicago. Perkins and Ibaka will close the paint on defense. Durant + Westbrook + Harden will get the job done on offense.
                                                  As for Boston - Miami, I tend to lean that way as well, but can't see myself betting on that. Boston and Miami both fully capable of scoring 90+ points, so too much can depend on a silly foul in the end or meaningless three pointer or simple time management.
                                                  If I can suggest, if you will add units to the play, to do that first half only, because I believe it can be a very close game and finish can be brutal for Under backers.
                                                  Good luck tonight and hope you will finish the season strong as you deserve and continue to the playoffs on the right note!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Love The Action
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                    • 10952

                                                    #9265
                                                    Originally posted by absolutkaos
                                                    i think almost every time youve bought points this year on a side it's been a loss, does that factor into your choice here? I may be wrong but I remember at least a few -120 beats.
                                                    Makes no difference. Im still up on the season +0.4x in games ive paid -120 because it saved me on a push. Although, I have lost four plays in a row now whete I have paid -120. Nevertheless, had I done it more - specifically two saturdays ago with denver and utah - it would be even more profitable for me. Regardless, past results for this strategy should have no bearing on whether to employ it in the future. Each game needs to be considered on its own depending on the factors involved rather than letting past successes or failures cloud your judgment.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Love The Action
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                      • 10952

                                                      #9266
                                                      Originally posted by Dmil
                                                      Your opinion is he chasing ???
                                                      No...he said the opposite. His comment was that we do the right thing by not chasing.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • absolutkaos
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 12-29-11
                                                        • 213

                                                        #9267
                                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                        Makes no difference. Im still up on the season +0.4x in games ive paid -120 because it saved me on a push. Although, I have lost four plays in a row now whete I have paid -120. Nevertheless, had I done it more - specifically two saturdays ago with denver and utah - it would be even more profitable for me. Regardless, past results for this strategy should have no bearing on whether to employ it in the future. Each game needs to be considered on its own depending on the factors involved rather than letting past successes or failures cloud your judgment.
                                                        cool...thanks for the explanation....
                                                        Comment
                                                        • moguler
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 03-28-11
                                                          • 219

                                                          #9268
                                                          My local book has it at 193. I'm sure there must be a mistake here.
                                                          I am considering 2x or more play for this. 11 points of value. Wow.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • absolutkaos
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 12-29-11
                                                            • 213

                                                            #9269
                                                            Originally posted by moguler
                                                            My local book has it at 193. I'm sure there must be a mistake here.
                                                            I am considering 2x or more play for this. 11 points of value. Wow.
                                                            are you looking at the Chicago-OKC line?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Love The Action
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 11-08-10
                                                              • 10952

                                                              #9270
                                                              Originally posted by Blood Drake
                                                              LTA, I started following this thread at a couple of months ago because of your in-depth write ups. Mainly because I am awful at picking totals in basketball, NBA or CBB, so it is nice to get a perspective on betting the total. With that in mind, do you (or your model) only look for Unders? I hate picking the under, but it seems like 80% of the time you are picking the Under. Is that accurate? And if so why do you lean towards the Under?
                                                              No....that's not even close to accurate. I make the play where the value lies in conjunction with other factors. If there's value on the over and other factors point to the over, then I will play the over. Likewise, with the under. While I have played more unders than overs, that's simply because the books generally provide more value on unders due to the fact that the betting public enjoy to watch high scoring games and therefore bet more overs. However, the split is about 59/41 and not 80/20.

                                                              Originally posted by Blood Drake
                                                              I don't know if it is the threat of overtime, or the fact that cheering for teams to suck is disheartening, but I really hate putting money on the under. However, I don't want to lose out on good opportunities just because I dislike something. Any advice for me to help me look at betting the Under in a better light?
                                                              Do you like to win money? If so, then you should not care about "cheering for teams to suck." You should only care about increasing your profit. The books know that people don't like betting unders....which is exactly why you can find solid value on the under in certain matchups.

                                                              Originally posted by Blood Drake
                                                              Also, you often mention that you have X points of value on a play so you are going with that play. Usually, that is only like 2-5 points, isn't that a pretty slim amount of points? That would only be one or two possession. If a team is getting 90+ possessions it is only 2% difference. Likewise, if the total is around 180 then 4 points would also only be around 2% difference. That seems like an awful small margin to be considered an edge. I am sure I am looking at this wrong but I would appreciate any feedback so I can keep improving.
                                                              Wow, there is so much wrong with this statement that I would need quite a bit of time to fully respond. Unfortunately, I need to be watching the board right now and not responding to posts. Remind me later, but if you can get a 2% edge over the books and that edge is consistently accurate, you would never need to work another day in your life. Needless to say, a 2% edge is HUGE in the world of sports investing. Good luck.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • moguler
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 03-28-11
                                                                • 219

                                                                #9271
                                                                No. I am talking about the Boston-Miami line. My book has it at 193. Thinking of going big, very big.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • moguler
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 03-28-11
                                                                  • 219

                                                                  #9272
                                                                  Originally posted by absolutkaos
                                                                  are you looking at the Chicago-OKC line?
                                                                  No. I am talking about the Boston-Miami line. My book has it at 193. Thinking of going big, very big.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Love The Action
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                                    • 10952

                                                                    #9273
                                                                    Originally posted by moguler
                                                                    No. I am talking about the Boston-Miami line. My book has it at 193. Thinking of going big, very big.
                                                                    This is an "obviously" bad line. Your book will not only cancel the wager, but they will be displeased at you for betting it. If you are betting through a local, be careful because they especially hate this type of thing. Larger books will simply cancel the bet and mark your account. If you bet into obviously bad lines enough, your book will stop taking your action and boot you.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • unitedlad
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 01-10-12
                                                                      • 845

                                                                      #9274
                                                                      A lot of books down to 186. Looks like dropping further.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • MrXYZ
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 02-18-11
                                                                        • 2342

                                                                        #9275
                                                                        t's counter-intuitive for most people to take an under, as the automatic tendency is to think "it's too low!" with those 180-185 totals. I still catch myself doing that sometimes & it takes discipline to ignore those biased assumptions.
                                                                        Comment
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