LTA's NBA Plays

**BigBurk** · 03-31-12, 01:11 PM

NO or no play for me, even without their top scorers.

**dynasty27** · 03-31-12, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by BigBurk

NO or no play for me, even without their top scorers.

This is NO 4th game of a road trip and they hardly have enough players to suit up for the game...I dunno I'm avoiding the whole game

**jas19illini** · 03-31-12, 01:36 PM

Tracy McGrady injury update anyone? All im seeing is questionable.

**bleedtoledo** · 03-31-12, 01:56 PM

Update on tMac: 50 years old and still has never won a playoff game.

**BigBurk** · 03-31-12, 01:58 PM

Lol, nice one.

**meader99** · 03-31-12, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by bleedtoledo

Update on tMac: 50 years old and still has never won a playoff game.

He's won plenty of playoff games, just never a playoff series.

**meader99** · 03-31-12, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by dynasty27

This is NO 4th game of a road trip and they hardly have enough players to suit up for the game...I dunno I'm avoiding the whole game

I would lean under on this game.

**bleedtoledo** · 03-31-12, 02:10 PM

I know, I been watchin his brittle knees crumble apart for more than a decade now. The only player more frail: lebron james' father, Greg Oden.

**CheeseHead** · 03-31-12, 03:18 PM

LTA, any lean on the Milwaukee/Memphis game? I will be at the game tonight so just looking for some kind of action wager... I'm leaning towards Milwaukee and the over right now, but maybe that's just because it's what I'd like to see happen

**Love The Action** · 03-31-12, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by CheeseHead

LTA, any lean on the Milwaukee/Memphis game? I will be at the game tonight so just looking for some kind of action wager... I'm leaning towards Milwaukee and the over right now, but maybe that's just because it's what I'd like to see happen

Yep....just locked a play on the side in this one. I don't think you are going to like it though...

**remypom** · 03-31-12, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Yep....just locked a play on the side in this one. I don't think you are going to like it though...

I don't see the post of this play. :/

**TC Woods** · 03-31-12, 05:42 PM

All.. Atl/Philly total is heading back up

**Love The Action** · 03-31-12, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/31/2012

Play #1

Hawks/76'ers under (179) 1.5x (Locked)

I love this play and really want to play this for more than 1.5x, but I will wait to see the ref assignments before playing this more aggressive. Two top level defenses going against inconsistent offenses that rely on the jump shot and play at a snail's pace. In the earlier game between these two teams, we bet the under at 181, it closed at 180 and the final score was 185 in a really tough beat. Despite that game going over, the books have adjusted in favor of the under and are inviting over money. Hmmm...I think the books expect a low-scoring affair and I have to agree. My model has this game at 176 giving us 3 full points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Grizzlies (+3) 1x (Locked)

I was going to play the Grizzlies last week in a similar situational spot against the Lakers and I made the mistake of laying off that one. I won't make the same mistake tonight. I have been waiting all day to get +3 and my local just made the switch about 5 minutes ago when Pinny started juicing the -2.5 at -110. I think that these are two very similar teams in a lot of ways, but very different in others. It that difference -- mainly on the defensive end -- that is the reason for my play on Memphis. Memphis has a strong advantage in points in the paint, fastbreak points and fastbreak efficiency, while they defend those same categories much better than Milwaukee. In addition, Memphis derives the majority of their offense from high percentage shots within 9 feet of the basket where the Bucks defense struggles, and Milwaukee derives the majority of their offense from 10 feet and out which is where Memphis plays solid defense. Even though Memphis had the worse travel schedule after both teams had games last night, they are 9-3 ATS on b2b while Milwaukee is 6-11. Milwaukee struggles against strong defensive teams and I expect Memphis to bring the intensity tonight after going through a bit of rough patch lately. The refs are Adams, Jones and Workman, with Adams being a long-time ref that supports the road team having had more road team covers than home team covers in every one of his 8 seasons except one, Jones also favors the road team in his short career and Workman is neutral. The majority of all wagers are on Milwaukee at home and the line has moved that way, but I expect some Memphis steam to hit relatively soon bringing this down to a closer around +2 or less. I have this game set at +1.5 giving us 1.5 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Grizzlies for 1x. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 03-31-12, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by TC Woods

All.. Atl/Philly total is heading back up

Don't worry, that's just sharp money buying on the over to get a better number on the under. It's already dropped back down to 178 from 178.5 after jumping a full point from 177.5. This happens every day where the line moves up and down as certain syndicats or sharps missed a line move. They will move it back in that direction, just to come back over the top in the direction they missed. I expect a closer back at 177.5 before tip. GL

**TC Woods** · 03-31-12, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by TC Woods

All.. Atl/Philly total is heading back up

Wow.. only up at 178 1/2 for a couple of minutes

**Love The Action** · 03-31-12, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Don't worry, that's just sharp money buying on the over to get a better number on the under. It's already dropped back down to 178 from 178.5 after jumping a full point from 177.5. This happens every day where the line moves up and down as certain syndicats or sharps missed a line move. They will move it back in that direction, just to come back over the top in the direction they missed. I expect a closer back at 177.5 before tip. GL

Already back down to 177....

**Love The Action** · 03-31-12, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by TC Woods

Wow.. only up at 178 1/2 for a couple of minutes

That's how it works. You need to practice reading lines and anticipate when its a real line move that will stay at a number and when it's just sharp money driving up a number, to come back even heavier over the top. It happens every night in the totals market.

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-31-12, 05:54 PM

Hey LTA, Cheesehead can bet Mem and root for Mil to win by one or two. Nothing wrong with that...best of both worlds.

BOL all.

**bleedtoledo** · 03-31-12, 05:56 PM

Lta, when you talk of sharps quickly moving lines like that, how much $ do they have to lay cause such movement??

**unitedlad** · 03-31-12, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Already back down to 177....

I can still get 178.5 at Victor Chandler, Totesport and Betfair. Deciding against the play as I think Philly may put up some big points after last night's defeat. BOL

**Love The Action** · 03-31-12, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by bleedtoledo

Lta, when you talk of sharps quickly moving lines like that, how much $ do they have to lay cause such movement??

It's usually going to be a syndicate of a certain number of guys who might make a half-max or more wager simultaneously at multiple books. Because the books are getting simultaneous steam from respected accounts, they have to move the line. As soon as they do, the syndicate then comes over the top with multiple max bets and causes the line to move right back down. There's no set dollar amount that causes the lines to move. It's a combination of total amount bet and who is betting that will cause the books to move. The books are less likely to move on a max bet made by a bettor they do not respect, than they are on a less than max bet by an investor they do respect.

**Love The Action** · 03-31-12, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by unitedlad

I can still get 178.5 at Victor Chandler, Totesport and Betfair. Deciding against the play as I think Philly may put up some big points after last night's defeat. BOL

Never even heard of VC or Totesport....I was referring to the major books like Pinny, 5D, Cris, etc., all of whom are at 177.5 right now. Good luck on your plays.

**unitedlad** · 03-31-12, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Never even heard of VC or Totesport....I was referring to the major books like Pinny, 5D, Cris, etc., all of whom are at 177.5 right now. Good luck on your plays.

Must be just known to us followers in the UK. Great to have a wide range of bookies, offering different numbers.

**Love The Action** · 03-31-12, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by unitedlad

Must be just known to us followers in the UK. Great to have a wide range of bookies, offering different numbers.

For sure...the more options the better! Line shopping is one of the most important aspects of being a successful investor. However, when determining validity of market moves, I think you pretty much look to Pinny as the be all and end all.

**Les_Nuts** · 03-31-12, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

For sure...the more options the better! Line shopping is one of the most important aspects of being a successful investor. However, when determining validity of market moves, I think you pretty much look to Pinny as the be all and end all.

I often use UK books. Some such as the ones mentioned by united lad are very slow to react to the changes set by Vegas and so I often get more favourable lines than I am looking for, I can still get 178.5 at two books. Can be extremely useful and I often find 3-4 point differentials which I can attempt to middle

**Love The Action** · 03-31-12, 06:30 PM

Now it's down to 176.5 at Pinny which is right where my model had it set....can't get any better than that

I did my part in making a +EV wager, now it's up to the players to do their part. Good luck tonight.

**TC Woods** · 03-31-12, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

That's how it works. You need to practice reading lines and anticipate when its a real line move that will stay at a number and when it's just sharp money driving up a number, to come back even heavier over the top. It happens every night in the totals market.

Thanks for that....

I'm tailin both, also put 1X on CLev/NY U 193

**Les_Nuts** · 03-31-12, 06:35 PM

I wish we could just bet on beating the closer as LTA seems to do that 95% of the time lol.
GL all, we are due a 2 0 night

**TC Woods** · 03-31-12, 07:31 PM

Any leans on Utah/LA Clips?

**pokerwhiz90** · 03-31-12, 07:38 PM

2nd half over 87.5 seems to be good - put half a unit on it

**MK2004** · 03-31-12, 08:37 PM

Is getting close to the over guys.

**pokerwhiz90** · 03-31-12, 08:41 PM

haha man, aren't we unlucky - the game was headed for 170-172ish... and they drop 3 pters like crazy the last 5 minutes

**MK2004** · 03-31-12, 08:43 PM

wow, that was a tough.

**dallasspartan** · 03-31-12, 08:43 PM

Just my luck....awful beat

**Les_Nuts** · 03-31-12, 08:52 PM

Wow is all I can say. We are in bad beat central at the moment. I feel worse for LTA as he was probably in a minority with 179.5 ( i was on 178.5) and it looked like they were going to let it run out but the hawks commit a pointless foul with 10secs left