LTA's NBA Plays
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TheLandlordSBR Rookie
- 02-23-12
- 35
#9136Comment -
dmiteanSBR Sharp
- 03-30-11
- 364
#9137Don't take it too hard LTA. Some things you can't control. You just need to ride it through and hope that bad streak will end and sooner rather than later. For me end of the month usually helps to start fresh.
Good luck today!!!Comment -
Pick'nParlaysSBR MVP
- 02-22-08
- 3134
#9138bulls under again?Comment -
jas19illiniSBR Wise Guy
- 10-27-10
- 682
#9140Rose, Hamilton, Gordon, stuckey injury updates anyone?Comment -
z0nedeeLbcSBR Rookie
- 03-29-12
- 11
#9141rose, gordon, stuckey are out and hamilton is active.Comment -
PivotpointSBR MVP
- 08-02-06
- 1762
#9142Pistons struggle to score and could be without Stuckey and Gordon. Stuckey leads team in scoring with 16.1 pts and Gordon 12.3 pts. Would not be surprised it Pistons don't get to 80pts in the United Center.
I bet the under 181 1/2 . Total opened at 182 and has been slowly dropping, even though most tracking sites show majority on Over. I'm also seeing 180 1/2 , currently where I play. Last I checked VI had 63% on Over / 37% Under. Gl with your picks tonight.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#9143NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/30/2012
Play #1
76'ers/Wizards under (186) 1x (Locked)
The wizards have been playing very slow with more emphasis on the half court game since the acquisition of nene. Over the last ten games, the wiz are bottom 10 in PACE and are actually playing very efficient defense (ranked #5 in DEFF in last 5 games). We all know this is philly's bread and butter, so I see no reason for them to change tonight. Philly has destroyed washington in all 3 games this season with all games going way over, except for the last one which was set at 192 but ended right at 186. Based on recent play, I expect an even lower score tonight and the refs are neutral. I have this game set at 183.5 based on season long stats and I like the under even better based on recent numbers. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
bmur714SBR High Roller
- 02-10-12
- 189
#9144NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/30/2012
Play #1
76'ers/Wizards under (186) 1x (Locked)
The wizards have been playing very slow with more emphasis on the half court game since the acquisition of nene. Over the last ten games, the wiz are bottom 10 in PACE and are actually playing very efficient defense (ranked #5 in DEFF in last 5 games). We all know this is philly's bread and butter, so I see no reason for them to change tonight. Philly has destroyed washington in all 3 games this season with all games going way over, except for the last one which was set at 192 but ended right at 186. Based on recent play, I expect an even lower score tonight and the refs are neutral. I have this game set at 183.5 based on season long stats and I like the under even better based on recent numbers. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Here's a writeup I found to add to your analysis....
Any game involving the 76ers will feature a low total as the ‘under’ is 30-20 on the year in Philadelphia games. The 76ers average just 94 points per game but they have been a winning team by allowing the fewest points in the league, surrendering just over 87 points per game on less than 42 percent shooting. After starting the year 18-7 the 76ers are just 8-15 since but in the watered down Eastern Conference that is good enough for a protected seed as the 76ers still hold the #4 spot based on poor quality of the Atlantic Division. Boston and New York are right on Philadelphia’s heels however and it wouldn’t take much of a losing streak to bounce the 76ers from the playoff picture if Milwaukee heats up. The 76ers posted 103 points in the last game but they have been held to 80 or fewer points in four of the last seven contests. None of the last seven opponents has managed more than 93 points and these teams scored just 186 points when they last met. Each of the last nine Washington games have played ‘under’ and while this will be the lowest total in a long time for the Wizards this is team that has scored triple-digits once in the last twelve games. Washington’s defense has also done a decent job in recent weeks even though the losses continue to pile up as the Wizards have allowed 97 or fewer points in seven straight games. Washington added Nene at the trade deadline and he has greatly improved the defensive effort for this team with his rebounding and shot blocking ability. Over the last five games Washington has scored just 83 points per game while allowing just 88 points per game. The 76ers have tried many different lineups in recent weeks but the results continue to be poor. In three of the last four road games the 76ers have failed to top 80 points and the ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last ten 76ers road games. While this is a low total it will be tough to envision either team reaching above the low 90s in this game with the recent pace of play and the missing offensive options.
Let's get it LTALast edited by bmur714; 03-30-12, 04:40 PM.Comment -
CheeseHeadSBR Sharp
- 12-03-10
- 439
#9145Dan Crawford: 37 games, 62% home team win%, 194 points per game
John Goble: 41 games, 49% home team win%, 193.2 points per game
Leroy Richardson: 37 games, 40% home team win%, 189.5 points per game
Leroy Richardson is quite possibly the worst ref to home teams this year...only Ben Taylor has a worse home team win% but he's only reffed 9 games this season. John Goble is near the bottom of the list as well. Dan Crawford is near the middle of the pack on this one, there are plenty of other refs with higher than a 62% home team win%. I think if you're looking just at ref assignments on the Lakers/Thunder game, you got to lean towards the Thunder.
Before I see any criticizing, I want to point out that again this is only looking at ref assignments...but I figured I would mention it.
Good site for ref stats if you don't already have it:
http://www.nbastuffer.com/referee_stats
Well this got over looked yesterday...but I do think ref assignments are pretty important in plays. Just re-posting the link in case anyone missed it yesterday. I find it pretty funny this total landed on 195 when all the refs averaged right around that number and also the Thunder won the game when the refs clearly favored the away team. Of course this isn't going to always work on plays but I played the under on this game last night and it worked out for me...LTA having a strong lean towards the Lakers kept me from making a play on the Thunder.
Good luck tonightComment -
VascoSBR Sharp
- 03-16-12
- 315
#9146NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/30/2012
Play #1
76'ers/Wizards under (186) 1x (Locked)
The wizards have been playing very slow with more emphasis on the half court game since the acquisition of nene. Over the last ten games, the wiz are bottom 10 in PACE and are actually playing very efficient defense (ranked #5 in DEFF in last 5 games). We all know this is philly's bread and butter, so I see no reason for them to change tonight. Philly has destroyed washington in all 3 games this season with all games going way over, except for the last one which was set at 192 but ended right at 186. Based on recent play, I expect an even lower score tonight and the refs are neutral. I have this game set at 183.5 based on season long stats and I like the under even better based on recent numbers. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
CheeseHeadSBR Sharp
- 12-03-10
- 439
#9147Tonights refs for LTA's play:
Ron Garretson: 40 games, 65% home team win%, 192.8 points per game
Kane Fitzgerald: 40 games, 72.5% home team win%, 193.4 points per game
Scott Wall: 31 games, 71% home team win%, 192.3 points per game
Not much an advantage either way for the refs tonight as far as points goes like LTA said earlier in his analysis it seems...but it looks like they should favor towards the Wizards a bit. Perhaps Wizards +8.5 isn't a bad bet?Comment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#9148Cheeseheads i think o/u record would be a betterstat, right?Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#9149NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/30/2012
Play #1
76'ers/Wizards under (186) 1x (Locked)
The wizards have been playing very slow with more emphasis on the half court game since the acquisition of nene. Over the last ten games, the wiz are bottom 10 in PACE and are actually playing very efficient defense (ranked #5 in DEFF in last 5 games). We all know this is philly's bread and butter, so I see no reason for them to change tonight. Philly has destroyed washington in all 3 games this season with all games going way over, except for the last one which was set at 192 but ended right at 186. Based on recent play, I expect an even lower score tonight and the refs are neutral. I have this game set at 183.5 based on season long stats and I like the under even better based on recent numbers. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Heat/Raptors under (192) 1x (Locked)
No time for a writeup. We have value plus situational factors pointing to the under. I have this game set at 188 giving us 4 full points of value and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#9150Thanks LTAComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#9151I like the play. Wizards have been an under machine lately, but I am surprised you haven't jumped on the Bulls/Pistons under. Do you think the number was set too low? I can't see Detroit keeping this one close. There is always the worry that the Bulls score at will and make it a 102-84 kind of game. I'm interested to know if you see something in this game that I'm missing. Thanks for the input. Good luck tonight.Comment -
CheeseHeadSBR Sharp
- 12-03-10
- 439
#9152Not necessarily..I like to look at the stats found on that site because it tends to show you a bit more of the pace/average points these refs make of a game. Obviously it changes a lot depending on what teams they ref because each team has their own pace, but refs can control a lot of the game with the amount of fouls they call as well. Not sure solely looking at ref's O/U record would be of much value but I suppose it would also be something to consider.Comment -
CheeseHeadSBR Sharp
- 12-03-10
- 439
#9153Wizards down to +8 now...do they keep it close tonight? A blow out would be better for the under play I'd think..HmmComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#9154Not necessarily..I like to look at the stats found on that site because it tends to show you a bit more of the pace/average points these refs make of a game. Obviously it changes a lot depending on what teams they ref because each team has their own pace, but refs can control a lot of the game with the amount of fouls they call as well. Not sure solely looking at ref's O/U record would be of much value but I suppose it would also be something to consider.Comment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#9155I agree completely....i just think the o/u record gives alot more room
As each game is set at a number thr books choose and it goes over the lines the books make. An average means nothing in my opinion because the games could average a closer of 200 they ref in but there still under by 10 points...you kno?Comment -
adam3248SBR MVP
- 11-03-10
- 1271
#9156Rolling with you on the 76ers/Wiz under.
Best of luck!Comment -
kelso89SBR Rookie
- 03-07-12
- 36
#9157Dont like the bulls under tonight...no value. I have this game set at 183.5. Like you said, I could see this one ending in the high 180's as the bulls reserves lay it on in the 2h. Plus, I would not be surprised to see detroit play well on offense tonight as the bulls defensive intensity might give let up just a bit in this spot after the hawks win and okc coming on sunday. Detroit will be motivated tonifht. Good luck ...I will be rooting for you.Comment -
VascoSBR Sharp
- 03-16-12
- 315
#9158Dont like the bulls under tonight...no value. I have this game set at 183.5. Like you said, I could see this one ending in the high 180's as the bulls reserves lay it on in the 2h. Plus, I would not be surprised to see detroit play well on offense tonight as the bulls defensive intensity might give let up just a bit in this spot after the hawks win and okc coming on sunday. Detroit will be motivated tonifht. Good luck ...I will be rooting for you.Comment -
yankeekansanSBR Hustler
- 10-07-11
- 97
#9159tailing LTA
Comment -
jas19illiniSBR Wise Guy
- 10-27-10
- 682
#9160I see a 95-80 Bulls win.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#9162detroit motivated?? without gordon and stuckey,,13 and 14 ppg,..that's at least 20 pts less that detroit can score,,they have their best shooters out and they are a bad bad team playing one of the best if not the best D in the league,,so who's gonna score? I think detroit are not coming even close to 85,,they will score around 70Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#9163Celtics are a strong lean....Comment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#9164I love the celts tnight.Comment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#9165Damn lta heat killin us this yearComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
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kelso89SBR Rookie
- 03-07-12
- 36
#9167Fair enough....but this is the NBA and guys tend to "get up" when starters go down. Also, I think that Detroit will be more motivated for this game than the Bulls, with this game sandwiched between a big win over the rival Hawks and Sunday's game against OKC looming. What is the Bulls motivation to play lock-down D? Plus, even if they play solid D for the 1h, I would not be surprised to see the Bulls start coasting defensively in the 2h, especially if this is a rout and all the subs (bench mob) start playing. Those guys will be looking to score right up until the game ends. I would not be surprised to see the Bulls score over 100+ against this weak Detroit defense and I know you don't think Detroit scores over "70" ,but I would not be surprised to see this one hit mid 180's as time expires. Good luck dude, I hope you cash.
no argue in that..this can easily go over in game total,,but detroit will not score over 84 I'm sure of thatComment -
eastern2SBR Sharp
- 02-24-12
- 448
#9168Yep - also I remember last week dallas and houston scored 110 in the 1st H and scored a combined 70 pts in the 2nd H before OT - u really don't know until the 4thComment -
mikea33SBR MVP
- 11-14-11
- 2149
#9169Ohhh i know i never said we are out of it. Just seema they do the opposite o what we need them to do in every play hahaComment -
kelso89SBR Rookie
- 03-07-12
- 36
#9170
y-day we missed the bet by chalmers hitting a 3-pointer 30 s before the end,,and 2Q was 60 pts,,It's not over till it's overComment
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