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I ended up passing on the OKC/Blazers over. Though it's easy to feel like it was a missed opportunity, couldn't see any value & cashing on a bad call is dangerous to bankrolls in the long term. Very happy to just bank the Heat under for a profitable day. Thanks again LTA for your hard work!Comment -
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/19/2012
Play #1
Celtics/Hawks under (184) 1x (Locked)
I just hit the back button on accident and erased a long writeup I had prepared for this game. Now I have to leave for work and I'm not retyping. Most of the market is at 183.5, but my local was hanging 184 all morning until Pinny reduced the juice on 183.5 to -105. I jumped on the 184 because I just don't see this one getting back that high today. I would play this at 183 or more and may add to this one once ref assignments are released. As a condensed writeup, I will say that both defensive strengths will face off against both offensive strengths in that both offenses revolve around spot up shooting from the 10-15 foot and 18-23 foot ranges. Both defenses excel against such attacks. Both teams are bottom 10 in PACE and possessions per game and top 6 in DEFF, OTS% and OEFG%. I expect this to be a slow-paced defensive battle. Most of the bets are on the under as I type, but I suspect this closes at a 50/50 or 60/40 split in favor of the over as the "public" loves to bet the over on these low numbered totals. I have this game set at 179.5 giving us quite a bit of value at any number above 183. Once I see the ref assignments, I may add 0.50x to this play. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Referees: Bill Spooner, Kane Fitzgerald, Derek RichardsonComment -
I will skip it, but I lean to the Over actually here.
First of all, I saw the game in Cleveland last night and the pace was really high.
Second, while Hawks have 17 Under results in 26 games on the road, they have only 10 Under results in 19 home games, much even number.
Also, Boston on the road has 8O against 2U results in games that aren't the second leg of B2B, so clear Over tendency here.
Refs really split with small Over tendency in my eyes.
Hope you nail it, but wouldn't take it Under below 190 points to be honest.Comment -
Was able to get 183 on the Boston game. Figured it wont go back up to 183.5/184.Comment -
Sorry for interrupting the thread, but can I please ask you guys, what is the best way to withdraw money from Pinny? Does every method incur a charge?Comment -
I think we view those types of trends you mention much differently. In adition, I dont see what the pace against the cavs -- who play much faster with much less defensive prowess than the celts -- has to do with tonight's game. Although I dont discount such publicly disseminated trends entirely, I also dont view such trends as controlling. The sample sizes are just too small to have any true statistical significance. In addition, each of the games that make up those trends were derived from different matchups than we have tonifht (i.e. the games played by the hawks/celts on the road or at home were not necessarily against teams with pace, off or def stats similar to the hawks/celts matchup). The books know everyone looks at those type of trends because tbey are all over covers, sbr,etc . Consequently, they are already factored into the line. To some extent the advanced stats I use are also factored in, but the way I weight such info is unique. We all do things different, but I dont personally view such trends as the ones you mention statistically significant enough to keep me off this game because my model shows too much value to pass up. Good luck bud.Last edited by Love The Action; 03-19-12, 10:28 AM.Comment -
Hopefully this game plays out like Bulls/Sixers on Sat nite. Total of 169 again would be nice. Sixers/Bobcats line dropped to 183. Their first matchup played in the 160s while their last one ended at 187. Was leaning under, but would like to get a better number. Any value with this play even at 183? I think the Bobcats will struggle to score and the Sixers desperate for a win you would think they come out strong defensively.Comment -
Bulls - Magic Under has a lot of logic, because both SVG and Thibodeau ripped their teams for poor defense the last few games, so both should rebound strongly from that. My only problem that keeps me away from the bet myself is the fact that I believe that Bulls without Rose play with much faster pace, especially in the minutes that Watson is on the floor and if Magic three pointers go in, it can easily go Over. I like Orlando bet much more here to be honest.
Good luck today and hope you sweep the board!
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Gl man like both picks. I just hate putting money on low totalsComment -
My worry with the bulls under is they haven't shot well the last few games, so they'll bounce back at some point, possibly tonight. That and the fact that Orlando loves three pointers has me leery of the under. Tough call.Comment -
The celtics under i think is safer than Bulls/Orlando. Like everyone is saying Orlando and that 3-ball, Watson plays faster pace than Rose, and Jas just talked about how bulls have been shooting poorly and are due.Comment -
While its true that watson and jl3 play at a faster pace than rose, that concept is less worrisome the longer rose is out. When watson and jl3 fill in for spot starts, that is one thing. Both guys are capable of having big games here and there. However, they are not drose and cannot give the bulls his kind of production day in and day out. Therefore, while I generally look to the over when drose sits one game because there is usually more value thereupon because of an overreaction by the books, this case involves a protracted layoff for rose and neither watson nor jl3 will continue to give the bulls 25-30 points like rose. Plus, the more watson and jl3 play, the more teams can game plan against them. This is now the third or fourth game in a row rose will be out so the whole faster pace argument is less problemsome imo. No matter who is at point, the bulls aren't going to start playing at the pace of the knicks. As far as three pointers, I dont see orlando hitting for such a high rate against the bulls top 5 perimeter defense, especially after Thibs stressed that issue when magic almost shot 45% a few weeks ago. Its similar to the philly game.....against top flight defenses and other slow paced teams, watson and jl3's slightly faster pace is not as problematic for an under as when they play faster more offensive orientated teams. Good luck bud.Bulls - Magic Under has a lot of logic, because both SVG and Thibodeau ripped their teams for poor defense the last few games, so both should rebound strongly from that. My only problem that keeps me away from the bet myself is the fact that I believe that Bulls without Rose play with much faster pace, especially in the minutes that Watson is on the floor and if Magic three pointers go in, it can easily go Over. I like Orlando bet much more here to be honest.
Good luck today and hope you sweep the board!Comment -
If you are worried, just don't play it. I think you are overstating the bulls offense without rose. As I said above, they can hide rose's loss for one or two games, but the longer rose is out, the more the bulls offense will be exposed. Do you really think the bulls can put up 100 points game after game against solid defenses like the magic? I dont.....i think thibs and the bulls stress defense tonight rather than try to win with offense. Watson and jl3 are good backups, but they will be exposed and game planned against the more they play.Comment -
Like the look of the over in the Min/GSW game. Total has been reduced from 206 to 204 and there is some value here, especially in a game at the Oracle.
Like the plays tonight LTA on them bothComment -
YO LTA i just looked over the sixers/bobcats o/u at 183 and the Over looks really good. What do you think of this?Comment -
Was able to get the following games on 5dimes at the following #s...
Bobcats/Sixers UNDER 182.5 = 1X
Hawks/Celtics UNDER 183.5 = 2X
Bulls/Magic UNDER 183.5 = 1X
Also added an NCAA play... Buter -1.5 = 1X
That's my card tonight. Thanks for the insight LTA and others on this thread.
Good luck tonight!
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stupid lakers so unpredictable...
i'm sure this comment will spark doubters but i would rather bet on a team like OKC who is consistent or at least more so then some of these teams that go out everynight with a new agenda, tempo, scheme, attitude.... will to play
This time of year college basketball reminds me of how basketball should be played.Comment -
I'm not hating on the play, as I think the total could go either way in this game, tough total to cap. I was just throwing out some thoughts hoping to spark discussion, and they did. I actually have to agree with your statements above, they are good points that I didn't think of, which actually makes me more comfortable with the under. BOL and thanks for the thoughts.Comment -
unitedlad, at Pinny...first withdrawal of every calendar month (any amount/any method) is free...all others have a charge, $15 in most cases...Comment -
LTA I have a big lean onto the Under @ the Mavs/Nuggets game, also I like the Mavs to take this one. I am going completely against the market on my thinking at least until I last checked the line movement, so I ask you, can you talk me out of this one? What does your model say?
Thanks for the early plays
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Jm92 if you like the mavs youll probably like under...denver leaners would probably go over....Leans on the game often determine the totals and vice versaComment -
Back from hols today and get ready to make some money. Lets get em LTA.Comment -
My lean is mainly to the Under. Also just heard both Mcgee and Chandler should play tonight. Love me some unders on teams incorporating new players!
Also, does anyone have anything on Pekovic?Comment -
Thanks, so would most members just wait once a month to withdraw?Last edited by unitedlad; 03-19-12, 04:29 PM.Comment -
I dont ever want to talk someone out of a play. Go with your gut. Did you know the Mavs best defender, shawn marion, is out? When you consider haywood and west are also out, those are their 3 best defenders. Good luck, but I wouldnt want to ride out that low 200ish total against denver without my 3 best defenders. Hope you cash it bud!LTA I have a big lean onto the Under @ the Mavs/Nuggets game, also I like the Mavs to take this one. I am going completely against the market on my thinking at least until I last checked the line movement, so I ask you, can you talk me out of this one? What does your model say?
Thanks for the early playsComment -
I believe we are talking about an extremely good defensive team here, mostly thanks to their rotations and efficiency. They do everything right. And yes I know they are all out, I really don't value Haywood that much neither I do West, about Marion, well, I don't see any big 1x1 threat in Denver although I believe either Chandler or Gallinari might go off tonight. 1x1 is not their thing in Denver but still, I do recognize Marion's absence is big.
How about the Wolves LTA? Any thoughts on that?Comment -
Good luck LTA, I think you may have two winners here.Comment -
Let's go for a streak lta.Comment
