LTA's NBA Plays

**mikea33** · 03-18-12, 07:59 PM

No need to be nervous its gna be close. This girl ref aint helping she was about to call and and1 on that jRich drive

**Love The Action** · 03-18-12, 08:06 PM

My final lean was on Phoenix -5, but it never materialized. I think Phoenix covers this one as Houston is shorthanded on a b2b, but Phoenix is not in the best fatigue spot either so I'm passing. I'm done for the night. Let's get this under. Good luck to all!

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-18-12, 08:08 PM

Huge third quarter for us....huge. 33 points...173 pace right now.

**absolutkaos** · 03-18-12, 08:08 PM

im seeing a 177.5 pace on live betting with bet365

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-18-12, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by absolutkaos

im seeing a 177.5 pace on live betting with bet365

I use covers scores...great for current pace in BB totals.

Sports Scores and Odds | Covers

http://scores.covers.com/

Get all your NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and college scores and odds in one place. Covers is your source for Sports Betting information.

I have 169 pace right now...4:51 to go.

**mikea33** · 03-18-12, 08:25 PM

No OT this hits ...lets see if the bad beats continue

**mikea33** · 03-18-12, 08:28 PM

Where was this killer instinct last time we took heat -3 versus Orlando? lol

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-18-12, 08:30 PM

Miami will run the clock out...no intentional fouls...could not look better.

**absolutkaos** · 03-18-12, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

I use covers scores...great for current pace in BB totals.

Sports Scores and Odds | Covers

http://scores.covers.com/

Get all your NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and college scores and odds in one place. Covers is your source for Sports Betting information.

I have 169 pace right now...4:51 to go.

cool... thanks for the link.

**Sport_Fish** · 03-18-12, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by mikea33

Where was this killer instinct last time we took heat -3 versus Orlando? lol

Wasn't so much the lack of killer instict as it was the key 3 ptr's for Magic dropping in at the right times....this game just shows how much they struggle when they arent hitting those 3's - the UNDER cashes because of this and Miami may even cover the -8 simply due to Magic not hitting the long shots.

**mikea33** · 03-18-12, 08:35 PM

I almost bit on u94 in 2H because i was confident in the play but after last 2 weeks i'll take the process and continue whqt LTA calls the "grind"

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-18-12, 08:38 PM

Great analysis on the multi unit play LTA.

Congrats all. We deserve it.

**absolutkaos** · 03-18-12, 08:39 PM

nice call LTA

**XGamer** · 03-18-12, 08:41 PM

Great call on under, and should called on phx-5. Phx is looking great!

**dlunc3** · 03-18-12, 08:42 PM

good hit

**bmur714** · 03-18-12, 08:44 PM

Thank you LTA for the under play I needed that one... Hopefully the bad beats and variance has passed!

Thank you again!!

**Les_Nuts** · 03-18-12, 08:44 PM

Back to winning ways LTA, very nice call. Your multi-unit plays are gold this year, keep up the great work.

Note - Another high scoring 1st quarter results in a much slower, low scoring 2nd half. This seems to be the best thing for our unders at the moment. Another example that it is ridiculous to start worrying and writing off a play after a bad start

**wguan2** · 03-18-12, 08:45 PM

great job lta. here's to your impending comeback from the recent slide!

**samus82** · 03-18-12, 08:49 PM

Nice play mate. Tailed you so thanks for the write up.

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-18-12, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by Les_Nuts

Back to winning ways LTA, very nice call. Your multi-unit plays are gold this year, keep up the great work.

Note - Another high scoring 1st quarter results in a much slower, low scoring 2nd half. This seems to be the best thing for our unders at the moment. Another example that it is ridiculous to start worrying and writing off a play after a bad start

**Kurtz** · 03-18-12, 09:21 PM

Thank You LTA!

**mikea33** · 03-18-12, 09:45 PM

Lets make this a great week guys!

**dnwjdl** · 03-18-12, 10:06 PM

Thanks, LTA!

**Pick'nParlays** · 03-18-12, 10:07 PM

**shimeon40** · 03-19-12, 01:28 AM

Great pick LTA on miami under..Cleveland never a show...your gaining momentum again..BOL.

**shimeon40** · 03-19-12, 03:42 AM

I think LTA has more than the capability of stringing 10 plus wins together on the basis of one pick a day (the best of) due to his study and game reading..LTA runs on confidence and it's coming back...that miami game was a very accurate play.

**p5s** · 03-19-12, 04:27 AM

Thanks LTA for continually sharing your picks for the public even after hitting a slight downswing with some people talking trash and whatnot. I appreciate everything you do to giving insight and BR management on a daily basis when you don't have to.

Anyways, I would like to *try* and contribute today with a big lean that i have on the Cavs/Nets total of 196.5 to go OVER.
Both teams allow just about 100ppg. Both teams allow around 43points in the paint every game, which is the bottom 20% of the league. Both teams are very good @ offensive rebounding which will get us more easy second chance putbacks.
The Nets are the worst in the league at defending the 3. They allow their opponents to shoot 41% when they are at home, while the Cavs attempt nearly 20 3pointers per game and is top 3rd percent @ shooting the 3 percentage wise.
Most defensive categories for both of these teams aren't very good.
Biggest problem I see with this play is that both teams do not foul a lot. Less clock stoppage and free points could cause a problem if time continually ticks down.
If there is anything that I have overlooked, please comment and disagree so I don't make a mistake of making a play that is -EV
Thanks again LTA.

**shimeon40** · 03-19-12, 04:59 AM

P5s great write up..but how could u honestly confidently predict what could happen when these two insipid teams meet..they are both unreliable,unpredictable and both complete **** up teams in the nbacomp..bol whatever u do with those two teams.

**JM92** · 03-19-12, 06:33 AM

And the Jazz won...

**Love The Action** · 03-19-12, 06:40 AM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/18/2012

1 - 1 = +0.9x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

106 - 92 = +13.05x

Time to get on a roll....good luck!

**Love The Action** · 03-19-12, 06:41 AM

Originally posted by JM92

And the Jazz won...

Fuk'em

**Love The Action** · 03-19-12, 06:46 AM

Originally posted by p5s

Thanks LTA for continually sharing your picks for the public even after hitting a slight downswing with some people talking trash and whatnot. I appreciate everything you do to giving insight and BR management on a daily basis when you don't have to.

Anyways, I would like to *try* and contribute today with a big lean that i have on the Cavs/Nets total of 196.5 to go OVER.
Both teams allow just about 100ppg. Both teams allow around 43points in the paint every game, which is the bottom 20% of the league. Both teams are very good @ offensive rebounding which will get us more easy second chance putbacks.
The Nets are the worst in the league at defending the 3. They allow their opponents to shoot 41% when they are at home, while the Cavs attempt nearly 20 3pointers per game and is top 3rd percent @ shooting the 3 percentage wise.
Most defensive categories for both of these teams aren't very good.
Biggest problem I see with this play is that both teams do not foul a lot. Less clock stoppage and free points could cause a problem if time continually ticks down.
If there is anything that I have overlooked, please comment and disagree so I don't make a mistake of making a play that is -EV
Thanks again LTA.

Good luck. Personally, I dont see much value in this play at the 196 range. Earlier in the year we cashed this over when we bought the over at 189 early with my model predicying a 193 final....it ended with a 195 final score thanks to a huge 4th quarter of scoring and we cashed. In this case, my model has the total at 196 exactly. Consequently, I don't see the value. The nets play at a bottom 3 PACE and even though they are #11 in ORB%, they are #22 in extra scoring chances per game so they dont take advantage of their offensive rebounding. They are also at the bottom of possessions per game and both teams are not great in OEFF. I agree this will be a high scoring game because both defenses suck and they eont be looking to play D, but im just not sure they get above 197. No play for me but I hope you cash. Good luck!

**shimeon40** · 03-19-12, 06:48 AM

woohoo..lta is awake as i should be going to bed..anything i should be grabbin before movement..my bookie has following boards set..bos +2 vs atlanta -2..183.5 total..screw cavs/nets game..dallas +4..total 202..min/gold st -1.5 tot 205

**r1kkie** · 03-19-12, 06:54 AM

Thank you LTA for the Heat game! Lets go for another + day!

**buckeyemondo** · 03-19-12, 07:13 AM

Originally posted by buckeyemondo

think if the line moves to cincy +3, pull the trigger. will likely see some more 2-3 zone from the bearcats which will give fsu some problems... keep gates out of foul trouble against a bigger fsu frontcourt as well as force fsu to execute offensively. fast break points off turnovers will be huge for cincy.

if bearcats can knock down their open looks from 3 and have 8-10 pts off of turnovers, i expect cincy to win this straight up by 5-6.

regardless, +3 should at least be a one unit play.

LTA, did you end up playing this game? your buddy was right on point.