LTA's NBA Plays

[Catchn_Picks]

Looks like a 3-4-1 night (at least for me). I waited to play Denver...it looked like it wasn't going down. Yea, -6.5 would have been sweet.

Unreal series of events in the fourth quarter all at once to kill us. SA/Dallas under was looking real good before a high scoring last quarter.

[dlunc3]

He got Utah at -7 instead of -8 like LTA did. The line dropped.

oh ok... yea, lines were sharp today... den and utah both coulda been winners depending on what time you got the lines

utah and philly will never stop hating us

[Les_Nuts]

Cheap from Robinson, pure selfishness, all he cares about is his 3pt %

[dmitean]

I think it was the perfect day the demonstrate how important it is to search/ wait for a better line.
In the end of the season, it will be 10 - 15 bets that went from L to W column and that's big $.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/17/2012

3 - 4 - 1 = -1.4x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

105 - 91 = +12.05x

An extremely disappointing day from an investing point of view, but a fun day partying with family friends. I was expected at worst a 5-3 type day and instead a meaningless, undefended 3 ball at the buzzer, combined with a push on Denver and 130 point 2h in Dallas was too much to overcome. We just are not getting the breaks you have to get to succeed in this business. This bad run reminds me of last season's MLB when I suffered bad beat after bad beat for the entire month of July which dropped my unit count from about +27x to about +14x. Ask Redscot about last July and he will cringe as almost every loss was attributable to a late inning rally or last pitch homerun or some other unbelievably horrific ending. However, after that horrible month of July and a rocky start to August, we caught fire in the final month of the season and playoffs to take us from that +14x level all the way up to final tally of +43x. I'm certainly hoping we don't have to suffer through a full month of bad beats like last July, but this little recap illustrates why (1) you need to practice proper money management in order to keep your head above water during the bad streaks and (2) you always remember that this is a long term investment which means you can't get too high or too low until the final day of the season. This has been a horrible weak of tough beats, but as long as we continue to work hard, the wins will come around. It's just a matter of when, not if. Good luck on Sunday.

[Love The Action]

I think it was the perfect day the demonstrate how important it is to search/ wait for a better line.
In the end of the season, it will be 10 - 15 bets that went from L to W column and that's big $.

Agreed, it's all about getting the best number. It's not about necessarily about waiting for a better line, it's about anticipating where the market is going to go and getting the best number early or late. Last night I had to lock plays in before I left for the day, but was totally comfortable with the numbers I got except for the Denver game. I figured that one might move back down to -6.5, but I had to leave for the party and jumped on -7. Both Denver and Utah should have easily covered those games, but such is life.

I actually appreciate a lot of the comments you make on here, but you also really know how to throw salt in the wounds right after some tough beats

[mikea33]

Excellent post LTA

[absolutkaos]

+8.5 for Orlando against the Heat seems pretty tempting....in three matchups this year the Heat have only won one, by 12, during the middle of a really hot streak for them....they are less consistent as of late, and will likely be looking for revenge too, but I think the Magic need to make a statement in the next two days that they ARE playoff contenders, especially with the Howard drama finished, and have two tough Eastern conference teams, back to back, in the Heat & the Bulls to prove that....the only thing that could be dicey about the Magic is that if they start getting down in the 4th, they could rest guys for the back to back vs the Bulls tomorrow. Thoughts?

[Love The Action]

Man, Pacers are really a heartless team sometimes....how do you lose both games of a b2b home/away series against the Knicks. Pretty pathetic.

[JM92]

Hey guys, LTA sir.

Have been tailing the plays the last few nights, haven't had any time to work on the games. I'm really liking the Memphis tonight to completely blow out the Wizards. Terrible match-up for Washington this game is.

[Love The Action]

Hey guys, LTA sir.

Have been tailing the plays the last few nights, haven't had any time to work on the games. I'm really liking the Memphis tonight to completely blow out the Wizards. Terrible match-up for Washington this game is.

I have a small lean to Memphis right now but need to look at the game more. My concern is that the return of ZBO, and to a lesser extent Gay, has thrown off the rhythm of the team and the usual rotations. Does Memphis have any motivation to keep the foot on the gas petal for the whole game? We bet Dallas in a similar spot earlier in the week against the Wizards and we got burned as Dallas was winning by 13 with a minute left but they gave up 4 points in the last minute because they stopped caring....I would hate to suffer the same sort of loss tonight....

[dmitean]

I actually appreciate a lot of the comments you make on here, but you also really know how to throw salt in the wounds right after some tough beats

Belive me, my comments are without any malice and without any intention to hurt you or anyone else and I'm sorry if it appears to be so.
Anyway, today is a tough card, so lets see if we can find any gems here
Good luck today!

[Love The Action]

+8.5 for Orlando against the Heat seems pretty tempting....in three matchups this year the Heat have only won one, by 12, during the middle of a really hot streak for them....they are less consistent as of late, and will likely be looking for revenge too, but I think the Magic need to make a statement in the next two days that they ARE playoff contenders, especially with the Howard drama finished, and have two tough Eastern conference teams, back to back, in the Heat & the Bulls to prove that....the only thing that could be dicey about the Magic is that if they start getting down in the 4th, they could rest guys for the back to back vs the Bulls tomorrow. Thoughts?

I'm looking at the total in this game....earlier in the season Miami cashed as -9.5 favorites at home against Orlando. After losing last week, I expect Miami to be motivated tonight. It looks like the books are reducing the value on Orlando by a full 1 point to 1.5 points based on the "warm and fuzzy" feeling surround Howard's decision to stay with the Magic. I think this should be a close game, but it will come down to Orlando's ability to make 3 pointers on the road late in this game. I'm not sure if they can do it. Personally, I am going to pass on the side but have a strong lean on the total. We'll see....good luck in whatever you choose.

[dmitean]

Memphis should come in crushing mode, but Wizards with Nene and Wall suddenly decent and what's more important, sain team and that's a huge line here.
If Nene is out, maybe Memphis should be a small play, but if he is in, I would stay away.
The big plus on Memphis is that they are healthy, off a bad loss at home and before big road trip. They should be focused tonight.

[Love The Action]

Belive me, my comments are without any malice and without any intention to hurt you or anyone else and I'm sorry if it appears to be so.
Anyway, today is a tough card, so lets see if we can find any gems here
Good luck today!

No, no, no...I was just kidding bud. I know you didn't mean anything bad. It was a great comment, very true and very rationale.

I was just joking around and saying that when you lose a couple really close games, especially the Utah game with the last second meaningless 3 pointer, the last thing anyone wants to read is how we could have cashed with a better line. Nevertheless, the comment was accurate.

Good luck buddy, I appreciate your contribution.

[dmitean]

I'm not sure if they can do it. Personally, I am going to pass on the side but have a strong lean on the total. We'll see....good luck in whatever you choose.

I don't know your lean, but for me it's Under or no play. Bookies give us 99 - 90 here and I think that both teams can show up defensively here, since both have a lot to prove and know each other really well.
I think that 94 - 83 can easily be the result here.

[JM92]

I have a small lean to Memphis right now but need to look at the game more. My concern is that the return of ZBO, and to a lesser extent Gay, has thrown off the rhythm of the team and the usual rotations. Does Memphis have any motivation to keep the foot on the gas petal for the whole game? We bet Dallas in a similar spot earlier in the week against the Wizards and we got burned as Dallas was winning by 13 with a minute left but they gave up 4 points in the last minute because they stopped caring....I would hate to suffer the same sort of loss tonight....

Well, they had two terrible OT losses in the last two games. I think Washington will be a really good team for them to beat up on and get back the confidence as they avenge those two bad losses.

[Love The Action]

I don't know your lean, but for me it's Under or no play. Bookies give us 99 - 90 here and I think that both teams can show up defensively here, since both have a lot to prove and know each other really well.
I think that 94 - 83 can easily be the result here.

I have a little more work on this one, but I do lean under. From an oddsmaker point of view, we've had final scores of 191, 168 and 202 (that one went to OT and would have ended at 188 or 189 in regulation).

Pinny's opener of 188.5 shows me that they expect a lower scoring game or they would have opened at 190 or 191 otherwise. They are baiting the over money here just a little and are getting 70%+ of all action that way. My concern lies in the fact that Miami only shot 11 free throw attempts in the last game and that number is sure to rise at home today where they usually get all the calls (plus Violet Palmer is one of the refs today ugh..). At the same time, I don't expect Orlando to shoot 50% today nor for them to get 37 free throw attempts like last game (18 of which were Howard). Personally, I am waiting for a better number than 189 but not sure I get it. I probably won't play this less than 189, but 190 is the 5th most common final score in the NBA and I think it's important to get protection on that number in this game. Let's see where the line goes as I expect the sharps to push this one up a little bit, only to drop the big bucks on the under late. 190 is the key number for me in this one....GL

[Love The Action]

I don't even follow NCAAB, other than filling out a bunch of brackets and buying some big money squares for the tourney, but my buddy was talking up the Cincy Bearcats last night to win over FSU outright. This guys is a relatively smart investor with some credibility. Perhaps an action play on Cincy today? Does anyone have any insight to that game....

[mikea33]

Lta i love cincy and nc state ive been solid but thats my 2 cents

[JM92]

I have FSU into the final four. They are really irregular though. Wouldnt bet on them, or against them.

[Love The Action]

Lta i love cincy and nc state ive been solid but thats my 2 cents

Good luck buddy

[Dtown13]

I don't even follow NCAAB, other than filling out a bunch of brackets and buying some big money squares for the tourney, but my buddy was talking up the Cincy Bearcats last night to win over FSU outright. This guys is a relatively smart investor with some credibility. Perhaps an action play on Cincy today? Does anyone have any insight to that game....

Love Cincy here. I have GTown in the 1st H and for the game and that is looking good right now to.

[Love The Action]

I think if we can get the Cavs at home for +3 today either from buying the hook or otherwise, that we would really need to consider that as a play. I have a lean at +2, but +3 would be very appealing. On offense, the Cavs are the more efficient offense in the paint and within 3-9 feet of the basket which are the most high percentage shots in basketball. On the other hand, Atlanta settles for jump shots way too much. In addition, Cleveland is the #1 team defending against the fast-break and that neutralizes one of Atlanta's offensive advantages. Even though Atlanta has Johnson back, they are missing a ton of guys for this game like Marvin Williams, Radmonvic, Horford, Collins and Green. Unfortunately, Varajao is out. However, there are some fun trends that support this play if you consider that Atlanta is 0-2 ATS this year in day games, while Cleveland is 2-0....perhaps it's hard to get those old bones of Atlanta working so early in the day and Cleveland's youth has some advantage in day games. Let's keep an eye on the line in this game....

[G-manFan]

Any thoughts on Minnesota. Kings have been over 50% shooting last two times out, nowhere close to that when they played Minn in the previous two. Only close game was when Love was suspended. Does Rubios abscence make them only a 1 point fav. He did lite it up in assist in the Love suspension game but in both games about 8 points. Can't Barera pick up the slack? Also Beasley should be back for Minn and Evans might be out for Sac.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/18/2012

Play #1

Heat/Magic under (191) 1.5x (Locked)

This one just steamed up and I was able to get 191. At best I thought I could get 190 in this game, so once I was able to get 191 I had to make this a 1.5x play. I have this game set at 187 giving us 4 full points of value. I will get you a full writeup later as I need to watch the lines now, but I view this as a very strong play at this number and I am rolling for the under for 1x. Good luck.

[meader99]

I don't even follow NCAAB, other than filling out a bunch of brackets and buying some big money squares for the tourney, but my buddy was talking up the Cincy Bearcats last night to win over FSU outright. This guys is a relatively smart investor with some credibility. Perhaps an action play on Cincy today? Does anyone have any insight to that game....

Uh-oh. I happen to love FSU in this spot and put a decent sum on them. If it's a trap, I fell right in.

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

I love this play LTA! I also really like Over Det 188.5(was 190), Over LAL/Minny 193.5, and Over kings 211. Figured you might like these also, since you love totals the most.

[Love The Action]

I think if we can get the Cavs at home for +3 today either from buying the hook or otherwise, that we would really need to consider that as a play. I have a lean at +2, but +3 would be very appealing. On offense, the Cavs are the more efficient offense in the paint and within 3-9 feet of the basket which are the most high percentage shots in basketball. On the other hand, Atlanta settles for jump shots way too much. In addition, Cleveland is the #1 team defending against the fast-break and that neutralizes one of Atlanta's offensive advantages. Even though Atlanta has Johnson back, they are missing a ton of guys for this game like Marvin Williams, Radmonvic, Horford, Collins and Green. Unfortunately, Varajao is out. However, there are some fun trends that support this play if you consider that Atlanta is 0-2 ATS this year in day games, while Cleveland is 2-0....perhaps it's hard to get those old bones of Atlanta working so early in the day and Cleveland's youth has some advantage in day games. Let's keep an eye on the line in this game....

This is also a look-ahead spot for Atlanta with a game against Boston tomorrow, this is a one game road trip as they played at home last game and return home for tomorrow's game and the Cavs' Tristan Thompson last year's #4 pick and a very promising young player will be getting his first start at center in place of Hollins. I think he comes out very motivated and gives big effort. Situationally, the Hawks have beaten the Cavs six games in a row so I would not be surprised to see them underestimate the Cavs here and get surprised. I think the Cavs will give 100% effort today, but not sure about the Hawks. The more and more I look into this game, the more I want to play the Cavs even if it doesn't get off +2.

[dmitean]

Wouldn't come near Over in Clippers - Pistons game with Clippers on B2B having 10U - 2O record.

Like the Under in Miami, good luck LTA!

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

I've been thinking this all early morning, since lunchbawks posted his ATL play. Its too easy to lay -2 with atl here. I love the cavs! Another poster named "billyunl" is on Cle too. He's having a great year.

[Catchn_Picks]

This is also a look-ahead spot for Atlanta with a game against Boston tomorrow, this is a one game road trip as they played at home last game and return home for tomorrow's game and Tristan Thompson last year's #4 pick and a very promising young player will be getting his first start at center in place of Hollins. I think he comes out very motivated and gives big effort. Situationally, the Hawks have beaten the Cavs six games in a row so I would not be surprised to see them underestimate the Cavs here and get surprised. I think the Cavs will give 100% effort today, but not sure about the Hawks. The more and more I look into this game, the more I want to play the Cavs even if it doesn't get off +2.

Saw +2.5 on Bet US this morning and jumped on it for a half a unit. Couldn't pass up the situational play as you described above. Of course, +3 would be great and require another play.

BOL

[bmansell33]

My local is up to 2.5 come on .5

[dmitean]

I took Cleveland ML earlier today as well. I think that injuries + look a head + the fact that Cleveland had few bad results at home, makes Cleveland a decent bet I think.

[Pross1]

CLE is up to +2.5 on bookmaker as well.