LTA's NBA Plays

**karajohn13** · 03-12-12, 08:18 PM

Will you make any other pick today LTA?

**Love The Action** · 03-12-12, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by JM92

Ever bet player props LTA?

Too much guesswork involved, plus nothing but added variance. I don't really even make action wagers anymore (which were rare ML parlays or correlated parlays for 1/4th of my normal unit). I stick to flat wagers on full game sides and totals because that is what I have put exhaustive effort in analyzing with my model. The more wagers you make, the more juice you have to pay and variance will encounter. The vig will get you sooner or later. I try to only make a wager if I believe I have +ev edge and it's tough for me to find an edge in props. However, if you put a lot of work in them, then I am sure you can find a +ev edge and be profitable. GL.

**ifiwaspresident** · 03-12-12, 08:32 PM

Hoping that CHI extends a bit then shifts to half court sets and locks down defensively to protect it.

**JM92** · 03-12-12, 08:32 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Too much guesswork involved, plus nothing but added variance. I don't really even make action wagers anymore (which were rare ML parlays or correlated parlays for 1/4th of my normal unit). I stick to flat wagers on full game sides and totals because that is what I have put exhaustive effort in analyzing with my model. The more wagers you make, the more juice you have to pay and variance will encounter. The vig will get you sooner or later. I try to only make a wager if I believe I have +ev edge and it's tough for me to find an edge in props. However, if you put a lot of work in them, then I am sure you can find a +ev edge and be profitable. GL.

Like I said before, I only started fully betting this year and I started this "study" around mid-march. I don't use projections or nothing, although I do obviously guide myself by statistics, which are the base of my analyse. I don't even lose that much time, because my knowledge of the league and the amount of time I "waste" in the Nba helps me a lot with this kind of "situational plays". I have been "betting" (i put really small amounts into it) every bet that is according to my terms and so far I'm actually hitting almost 60%. The problem here is, as you stated, the juice. It just kills me. And the more plays, the more it does. If I put aside the + 100/105 prices I sometimes get, in 42 bets I have an average price of - 123... this is a lot of juice and even though I'm hitting 60% I barely get any profit.

**rjp322** · 03-12-12, 08:44 PM

Still early but definitely looks like we will need a bit of a scoring drought from both sides if we want this to stay under cuz its on pace for 206

**ifiwaspresident** · 03-12-12, 08:47 PM

Rose's crossover on Lin wasn't even fair.

**Love The Action** · 03-12-12, 08:48 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA Regular Season 2011-2012 3/12/2012

Play #1

Knicks/Bulls under (199) 1x (Locked)

I don't think the Bulls will want to play at the knicks pace in this game and I expect them to slow it down and keep the knicks shooters off rhythm while avoiding the transition game that fuels the knicks offense. The Bulls are without Deng which hurts their defense immensely but the knicks are,in a fatigue spot in which they have played to the under 10 out of 13 chances illustrating a favorable trend. Despite recent struggles, the ny defense is still rated top ten in DEFF and EFG% for shots within 3-9 feet of the basket which is where the bulls excel. I expect the bulls to display their elite team defense by using noah in the middle now that he is rested from his illness and providing a lot of help for korver on the perimeter. Plus, the tendency to avoid turnovers as evidenced by their top ten TOV% should keep the knicks honest and less aggressive in the transition game. We have favorable ref assignments with kennedy, fitzgerald and nunez, so I do not expect an abundance of calls. In the last game, these teams played to a 91.5 PACE and hit 207 final as the bulls shot 52% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc, while the knicks shot 48% overall. With chandler back anchoring the knicks defense, I dont think the bulls shoot as well and combination of fatigue and a superior bulls defense should limit tbe knicks shooting efficiency. I have this game set at 195 giving us two fg's of value. Based on the foregoing, I am roling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Timberwolves (+4) 1x (Locked)

I think it will be hard for Phoenix to reproduce it's performance that they displayed in the previous matchup where they won by nine as 4.5 faves and shot over 50% while Minny shot under 39% and only 7% from beyond the ark. I expect both of those numbers to regress to their season average which should see Minny play better and Phoenix cool off. Minny still has the better defense even after this little slump they are fighting and has played well on the road all year. With Minny playing on multiple revenge having lost 9 in a row to Phoenix, there is no shortage of motivation on their end but Phoenix might take a win for granted here. The books were giving us +4.5 and even +5 (which we got) last game, but now they open at +4 with some outlets at +3.5 which seems to me they are looking for Phoenix money tonight. I expect top effort from Minny. The stats show there to be 1.5 points of value here as I have Minny set at +2.5 points not considering the Rubio loss. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Timberwolves for 1x. Good luck.

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-12-12, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by JM92

Like I said before, I only started fully betting this year and I started this "study" around mid-march. I don't use projections or nothing, although I do obviously guide myself by statistics, which are the base of my analyse. I don't even lose that much time, because my knowledge of the league and the amount of time I "waste" in the Nba helps me a lot with this kind of "situational plays". I have been "betting" (i put really small amounts into it) every bet that is according to my terms and so far I'm actually hitting almost 60%. The problem here is, as you stated, the juice. It just kills me. And the more plays, the more it does. If I put aside the + 100/105 prices I sometimes get, in 42 bets I have an average price of - 123... this is a lot of juice and even though I'm hitting 60% I barely get any profit.

LTA is absolutely right JM...there is no substitute that can countermand the juice that you will pay from too many bets. I promise you that you are not the only one. Some good cappers swear that the way to win is an extraordinary number of bets with perceived small edges in many angles. I have not been able to make that kind of physical and emotional commitment and make that work.

Notice LTA (at times) agonizes over some plays. Others he posts the night before. Usually he posts when he can get just a little bit more edge on the line. To a good capper a half a point on the line is huge especially in football with key numbers. It is everything. A good example was the other night with Dallas versus GSWs. That was a very close call. I played just one-quarter of a unit because I could not hold back when the World Champs were getting 4 points at GSW. LTA was looking at the same thing I believe and his instincts correctly said to no play because of the terrible fatigue schedule Dallas was in the middle of.

That is how thin the margin can be.

I put $200 bucks in two online sites and now have $1500 in one and $400 in another. Got a few free plays at the beginning. That is since September 2011. Many people on this thread could laugh at those amounts. But I ran it up by NEVER taking a shot or exceeding my bankroll. Until recently my big play was $25. I have less money in play than many here but I will be around playing for a long time with my conservative style.

Its a game, a hobby for me and nobody has more fun than me. So LTAs style of play is very measured, conservative and perfect for me.

BOL

Catch

**Love The Action** · 03-12-12, 08:59 PM

These two teams have already taken 46 fouls shots already with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Plus they are in the penalty.

These refs single-handedly working to give over bettors the win. Perhaps No Coin is right

**dymd3z** · 03-12-12, 09:01 PM

1:00 to go in the 3rd its 77-76 I dont see this under cashin... BOL though to all of us on this under

**ifiwaspresident** · 03-12-12, 09:03 PM

We are 9 over the pace after 3 in the books. We need few fouls and some lockdown defense.

**ph0208** · 03-12-12, 09:04 PM

Anyone got the Celtics +6?

**meader99** · 03-12-12, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

LTA is absolutely right JM...there is no substitute that can countermand the juice that you will pay from too many bets. I promise you that you are not the only one. Some good cappers swear that the way to win is an extraordinary number of bets with perceived small edges in many angles. I have not been able to make that kind of physical and emotional commitment and make that work.

Notice LTA (at times) agonizes over some plays. Others he posts the night before. Usually he posts when he can get just a little bit more edge on the line. To a good capper a half a point on the line is huge especially in football with key numbers. It is everything. A good example was the other night with Dallas versus GSWs. That was a very close call. I played just one-quarter of a unit because I could not hold back when the World Champs were getting 4 points at GSW. LTA was looking at the same thing I believe and his instincts correctly said to no play because of the terrible fatigue schedule Dallas was in the middle of.

That is how thin the margin can be.

I put $200 bucks in two online sites and now have $1500 in one and $400 in another. Got a few free plays at the beginning. That is since September 2011. Many people on this thread could laugh at those amounts. But I ran it up by NEVER taking a shot or exceeding my bankroll. Until recently my big play was $25. I have less money in play than many here but I will be around playing for a long time with my conservative style.

Its a game, a hobby for me and nobody has more fun than me. So LTAs style of play is very measured, conservative and perfect for me.

BOL

Catch

Good stuff. I have been as guilty as anyone as making to many plays.....Kind of action junkie style.......If it's on tv, bet on it. It's a dangerous way to do business. Four weeks ago tonight, I had $40 in an account. Yesterday it was a shade over $1100 without adding a dime. Some of it was luck, but most was just scaling back and using proper money management. I would admit that most people probably bet more per unit than I do. That's ok because all bankrolls are different. I have read more, studied more, examined more and you can find some invaluable information on this forum if you can weed through some nonsense. That and the fact that I started following LTA didn't hurt either.

Good luck to all in their future investing.

**PR9** · 03-12-12, 09:06 PM

bulls without Deng . Deng is the engine of their defense. Thibs talked about it alot.. saying he`s their most important player as most of what they do flows through him. Without Deng bulls games have been going over

against the knicks who can score alot and desperate for a win, and this being a national tv game (we know how these go as teams want to put on a show - and that means an offensive show), the over was the right play

**jameski999** · 03-12-12, 09:10 PM

Foul on every play

**ifiwaspresident** · 03-12-12, 09:12 PM

That's it. Slow it down CHI

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-12-12, 09:13 PM

"Four weeks ago tonight, I had $40 in an account. Yesterday it was a shade over $1100 without adding a dime."

Incredible achievement 99. What a run...congrats.

**Love The Action** · 03-12-12, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by PR9

bulls without Deng . Deng is the engine of their defense. Thibs talked about it alot.. saying he`s their most important player as most of what they do flows through him. Without Deng bulls games have been going over

against the knicks who can score alot and desperate for a win, and this being a national tv game (we know how these go as teams want to put on a show - and that means an offensive show), the over was the right play

Classic Monday morning quarterback this guy. Try posting before the game.

So if the under hits in this game, was the over still the play? It was on an under pace at halftime and still has a chance. Other than a 60 point third quarter, this game was on an under pace. Plus, if it was not for an abnormal amount of foul calls, this would be an easy under right now. You might want to wait till the game is over before crowning anything the "right" side because the only "right" side is the winning side and this play is far from over. A couple scoreless minutes and the under is right in it.

I recognize the loss of Deng was tough on the Bulls D, but I also noted that in my writeup. That doesn't mean the under was the "wrong" play though win or lose. I bet this at 199 and it closed at 198. That's a long term +EV play and that' all that matters to me.

**ifiwaspresident** · 03-12-12, 09:15 PM

Hey I bet the Longhorns can't beat Alabama if they lose the winningest quarterback in history on the fifth play of the game. I bet they can't.

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-12-12, 09:20 PM

We are still in this game!

**ifiwaspresident** · 03-12-12, 09:21 PM

Dude we are only 2 back of the 198 pace at the 6:01 mark.

**Love The Action** · 03-12-12, 09:21 PM

Even though it hurts our under, that dunk by Rose was sick!

**ifiwaspresident** · 03-12-12, 09:22 PM

Foul out Lin so Rose doesn't feel the need to light your ass up anymore.

**JM92** · 03-12-12, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

LTA is absolutely right JM...there is no substitute that can countermand the juice that you will pay from too many bets. I promise you that you are not the only one. Some good cappers swear that the way to win is an extraordinary number of bets with perceived small edges in many angles. I have not been able to make that kind of physical and emotional commitment and make that work.

Notice LTA (at times) agonizes over some plays. Others he posts the night before. Usually he posts when he can get just a little bit more edge on the line. To a good capper a half a point on the line is huge especially in football with key numbers. It is everything. A good example was the other night with Dallas versus GSWs. That was a very close call. I played just one-quarter of a unit because I could not hold back when the World Champs were getting 4 points at GSW. LTA was looking at the same thing I believe and his instincts correctly said to no play because of the terrible fatigue schedule Dallas was in the middle of.

That is how thin the margin can be.

I put $200 bucks in two online sites and now have $1500 in one and $400 in another. Got a few free plays at the beginning. That is since September 2011. Many people on this thread could laugh at those amounts. But I ran it up by NEVER taking a shot or exceeding my bankroll. Until recently my big play was $25. I have less money in play than many here but I will be around playing for a long time with my conservative style.

Its a game, a hobby for me and nobody has more fun than me. So LTAs style of play is very measured, conservative and perfect for me.

BOL

Catch

Well I think you got a little off-topic there since I was reffering only to player props and if I ever get serious with it it will be almost like betting another sport.

You do make lots of great points and this is the reason I visit this thread so often. Although sometimes I still don't get how I give so much importance to half a point, the truth his I did start with lots of bets in each day this season. Sometimes over 50% of the totals/sides market. Since I've changed to my careful approach, guess what, I'm even doing better than LTA

Like LTA just stated the other night, sometimes its more about the plays you don't make, than the ones you do. That's what I've been clearly learning. For instance, I'm now 6-0 in my doubledime or triple dime plays, after my win on the Bucks tonight. This would never have happened to me with the way I was betting before. And oh, if I was being unlucky, variance wasn't certainly the only reason I lost so many bets by 1 or 2 points (in one day, I lost 6 bets on a total of 13 points... if I cared about the lines as I do now, would've gone 4-2).

To sum it up, you really can't stop learning in this thread if you read and read carefully. And the biggest think I learned I guess it really was PATIENCE and HEDGE. Those have become two key words for me and are the main reason I am now being so succesful as of late (probably won't have 14 units every month, but I would say i'm getting on the right track to long term profiting).

Again, I cant thank LTA and the rest of the guys here enough for all the free know-how given

PS: I started out the season with a 150€ investment. Have now withdrawn a total of 90€ and my bankroll is 200€. Changed my unit already twice. But right now is still only 10 bucks

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-12-12, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Even though it hurts our under, that dunk by Rose was sick!

The best in the league right now and just coming into his prime. Da man.

**ronnieseah** · 03-12-12, 09:23 PM

why you didnt post this before the start smartass

Originally posted by PR9

bulls without Deng . Deng is the engine of their defense. Thibs talked about it alot.. saying he`s their most important player as most of what they do flows through him. Without Deng bulls games have been going over

against the knicks who can score alot and desperate for a win, and this being a national tv game (we know how these go as teams want to put on a show - and that means an offensive show), the over was the right play

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-12-12, 09:25 PM

Chicago getting in their super 4th quarter shut down mode right now.

**Love The Action** · 03-12-12, 09:26 PM

50 foul calls already...unreal.

**chief42** · 03-12-12, 09:26 PM

I put $200 bucks in two online sites and now have $1500 in one and $400 in another. Got a few free plays at the beginning. That is since September 2011. Many people on this thread could laugh at those amounts. But I ran it up by NEVER taking a shot or exceeding my bankroll. Until recently my big play was $25. I have less money in play than many here but I will be around playing for a long time with my conservative style.

Way to go bud, that is something most people cannot do. 1. Have the discipline to stick to a unit day in and day out. 2. Most people cannot and will not divulge information like that, i.e. how much they bet, to other people. I give you props for staying the course. Look what it did for you, took 200 and made a return of 700% in 6 months.

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-12-12, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by chief42

I put $200 bucks in two online sites and now have $1500 in one and $400 in another. Got a few free plays at the beginning. That is since September 2011. Many people on this thread could laugh at those amounts. But I ran it up by NEVER taking a shot or exceeding my bankroll. Until recently my big play was $25. I have less money in play than many here but I will be around playing for a long time with my conservative style.

Way to go bud, that is something most people cannot do. 1. Have the discipline to stick to a unit day in and day out. 2. Most people cannot and will not divulge information like that, i.e. how much they bet, to other people. I give you props for staying the course. Look what it did for you, took 200 and made a return of 700% in 6 months.

Thanks Chief. Beat the real estate market!

**ifiwaspresident** · 03-12-12, 09:29 PM

Stop FOULING. We're still in this thing fellas. LOCK IT DOWN...LOCK IT DOWN

**jjesco425** · 03-12-12, 09:30 PM

2 mins 13 pts talk about down to the wire lol

**Love The Action** · 03-12-12, 09:30 PM

Jimmy Butler playing great defense in place of Deng. It says tons that Thibs can trust the kid at the end of the game like this. I am very impressed with Butler's court awareness, defensive hustle and ability to hit some shots. I think this kid could be a solid bench contributor for years to come, kind of like the guard version of Taj Gibson.

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-12-12, 09:31 PM

193 pace with 2 minutes left. We want a Chicago blow out to avoid the fouling.

**ronnieseah** · 03-12-12, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Classic Monday morning quarterback this guy.