LTA's NBA Plays

[HarbaughTilting]

Thank you. I completely overlooked that. I will have to pay more attention to free throw attempts from now on.

Lakers@T-Wolves Total 192.5
I really think the Lakers are motivated to turn things around here and with basically no scoring help from their bench I'd expect them to focus on Defense and slow pace to give their starters as many minutes as possible. Line opened at 193 and has dropped to 192.5, so this suggests to me that under might be the right call here, but I definitely need more opininions on that as this is still my NBA betting rookie season.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/9/2012

Play #1

Bobcats (+2) 1x (Locked)

This is a prime situational play as opposed to a value investment. Most of the market is at 1.5, but Legends is continuing to hang the +2 so I'm going to jump on that now as I do not see Nets money pushing this one beyond the key number of 2. Just a few days ago, the Nets defeated the Cats by 3 points in Charlotte but did not cover as 4.5 point faves. In that game, the Bobcats were without Biyambo and the Nets' Deron Williams broke out for one of the highest scoring games of the year as he eclipsed the 50 point plateau. It was interesting to hear Paul Silas' take after the game where he responded to criticism about his strategy not to double Williams on the pick and role. Silas felt that it was the right call because it kept them in the game and limited the production from Williams' teammates and the numbers seem to support his strategy. Consequently, I would not be surprised to see Silas use the same strategy today, but with a more successful result. In this game, Lopez will not play for NJ and a healthy Biyambo's presence in the paint will be a big lift for Charlotte looking to avenge that recent loss. Charlotte has the advantage in points in the paint and in fast-break points/efficiency and I think a healthy Maggette, Henderson, Augustin, White and Biyambo should be able to win this game at home against a wildly inconsistent Nets team. There is a reason the books are adjusting their line in this game 2.5 points or more in favor of Charlotte. It is unlikely that Williams has another 50 point game and the removal of Diaw from the team is another qualitative factor that makes me like Charlotte today. I also question whether the Nets will get "up" for this game knowing that they just beat this team. As far as line movement, the majority of all bets are on the Nets yet the line continues to move in the Bobcats direction which is always a good sign. I think this is a great situational spot to back the Bobcats for all the reasons mentioned above and I am rolling with Charlotte for 1x. Good luck .

[BigBurk]

I totally agree on the Cats, the fact only that 65+% is on the Nets yet the line moves the opposite way says enough.

[groovybrandone]

nice write up LTA. tailing it @ 1.5 since 5dimes isnt offering the 2, and the line history doesnt look like they want to move the line between 1-2 like a few of the other sites

[Catchn_Picks]

BetUS just threw up +2.5...great value if you have the book in your rotation.

Hell, with 5D at -1.5 with NJN...that is even a decent middle if you are that type of player.

[Love The Action]

I totally agree on the Cats, the fact only that 65+% is on the Nets yet the line moves the opposite way says enough.

That is just one small part of it IMO. This is not directed at you, but just my opinion in general and I would caution anyone that looks at reverse line movement as their sole analysis. Generally, people that consistently bet reverse line movement as their primary means of capping are long term losing players.

In today's world of sports investing, RLM is an antiquated concept that has lost its relevancy. While RLM can be a useful tool in order to gauge the stake of your wager or as one small factor to weigh, there are more important keys to analyze and RLM is more of a red herring than anything else. I view it as something nice to have on your side, but not the "be-all-end-all" that others think it is. For proof of this, all you need to do is look through the forum. Throughout the years there are people who come and go touting profits from RLM, but whenever true RLM is tracked and blindly followed, the thread eventually dies from too many losses and disappears into the abyss of losing threads. The fact of the matter is that blindly tailing RLM is a sure way to burn through a bankroll.

[Love The Action]

BetUS just threw up +2.5...great value if you have the book in your rotation.

Hell, with 5D at -1.5 with NJN...that is even a decent middle if you are that type of player.

According to SBR odds and the BetUS website, they are still at 1.5... http://www.betus.com.pa/sports-betti...ll/odds-lines/

[TC Woods]

I went the other way (NJ -1 1/2).

This is what happens when you are impatient and think you know something about capping.

[NOREGRETS]

I went the other way (NJ -1 1/2).

This is what happens when you are impatient and think you know something about capping.

Me too. Also, Seaweed has been sick lately (small sample size) and he is on NJ -1.5. I might hedge. Thanks LTA!

[TC Woods]

Me too. Also, Seaweed has been sick lately (small sample size) and he is on NJ -1.5. I might hedge. Thanks LTA!

Excuse the ignorance, all new to me. Hedge?

[NOREGRETS]

Anybody that likes LTA's Cats play, if you are at 1.5, I would wait. The line will move in your favor.

[BigBurk]

That is just one small part of it IMO. This is not directed at you, but just my opinion in general and I would caution anyone that looks at reverse line movement as their sole analysis. Generally, people that consistently bet reverse line movement as their primary means of capping are long term losing players.

In today's world of sports investing, RLM is an antiquated concept that has lost its relevancy. While RLM can be a useful tool in order to gauge the stake of your wager or as one small factor to weigh, there are more important keys to analyze and RLM is more of a red herring than anything else. I view it as something nice to have on your side, but not the "be-all-end-all" that others think it is. For proof of this, all you need to do is look through the forum. Throughout the years there are people who come and go touting profits from RLM, but whenever true RLM is tracked and blindly followed, the thread eventually dies from too many losses and disappears into the abyss of losing threads. The fact of the matter is that blindly tailing RLM is a sure way to burn through a bankroll.

I have never picked a play just on the basis of RLM. I get your point though, I see some guys picking plays without factoring other things in. But for this play, it is a good sign imo.

[Catchn_Picks]

According to SBR odds and the BetUS website, they are still at 1.5... http://www.betus.com.pa/sports-betti...ll/odds-lines/

"Basketball NBA - Charlotte Bobcats +2½ -110 for Game"

Got it LTA at 10:47 am. The SBR lines are not as reliable as they once were. I just check the sites all the time instead of trusting them.

Maybe the pay line services are better.

BTW, just checked BetUS...still at +2.5

Catch

[NOREGRETS]

Excuse the ignorance, all new to me. Hedge?

A lot of different situations with hedging (depending on half or whole numbers). However, what it comes down to is simply betting the opposite way. If you play the opposite for equal amount, you will be eating only juice. Hate doing that but both of these cappers (LTA proven) are ridiculous and I hate to chose a side. I personally like NJ, so might go with LTA on Cats On the other hand the Cats BLOW and won their "superbowl" two games ago (with Orlando, I think by 16!) and may be laying down for a while... Whatever you and I decide to do, I wish us the best!!!

[ClausensHands]

LTA, any thoughts on Knicks/Bucks O 206 or Blazers/Celtics O 183? Bobcats are playing better as of late, wish yall the best on that one.

by the way, CHA is +1.5 on Bovada right now and they always seem to be a bit "cautious" with their lines to me. hope this means good things for you guys on the cats.

[chief42]

"Basketball NBA - Charlotte Bobcats +2½ -110 for Game"

Got it LTA at 10:47 am. The SBR lines are not as reliable as they once were. I just check the sites all the time instead of trusting them.

Maybe the pay line services are better.

BTW, just checked BetUS...still at +2.5

Catch

Just a word of friendly advice, stay away from BetUS. They are a very shady operation and will not pay if you are winning player. I have had it happen to me and have read stories from others about it as well.

[Dtown13]

Not planning on it.....just a typo about saturday.....but always a possibility if I cant find any value. With a ten game card, however, I dont see that happening.

They should allow edits through the mobile site....wtf

Agree 100%....

[Roto97]

by the way, CHA is +1.5 on Bovada right now and they always seem to be a bit "cautious" with their lines to me. hope this means good things for you guys on the cats.

Now +2 on Bovada.

[Notorious_Donk]

5Dimes line went from -110 to -105 and now at -103 so its getting closer to +2!

[CheeseHead]

Oh wow I don't know if I can get myself to lay money down on the Bobcats....will have to think about this one more. How about the Bucks tonight?? I know they aren't a favorite of a lot of people to bet on, but this seems like a great spot for them to win. Anyone agree? Bucks at home are a much better team, plus, the Knicks have been struggling on this road trip.

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

WOW LTA I couldnt agree more! I almost bet nets right before i came into this thread. you saved me 200. Seaweed nation likes nets and i was about to pull the trigger. GL man. BOBCATS!

[JM92]

LTA, any thoughts on the Clippers?

Already rolled with them, I'm seeing lots of folks on SA but im not at all afraid with my play. These are two very similar teams, can't believe last game score was a fluke, this should come as a totally important game for LAC and I don't see Ginobli making that huge a difference right now. 5 points are still a lot.

[mikea33]

LTA would u suggest buying up to +2 if the line is +1.5????

[Pross1]

LTA, any thoughts on the Clippers?

Already rolled with them, I'm seeing lots of folks on SA but im not at all afraid with my play. These are two very similar teams, can't believe last game score was a fluke, this should come as a totally important game for LAC and I don't see Ginobli making that huge a difference right now. 5 points are still a lot.

I got on SAS -5.5

I just feel like a rested Spurs team at home on a FRI night should be able to win by 9 or 10. Spurs have only lost 3 home games and LAC is .500 on the road.

GL with your play amigo.

[Cinarocket]

Love tonights pick LTA.

I have a question: Say you bet on the flop and you get raised, what would you do with a flush draw?

BOL

[dlunc3]

You have to weigh your pot and implied odds

[jas19illini]

There is a poker forum. This is NBA.

[apurvaas]

Heard from Michael fabiano's (nfl.com analyst) twitter account that gasol trade is confirmed (line dropped from LAL -1 to Minn -1 )
opened at all LAL+1, went to all -1, after the tweet, line went back to LAL+1..

Or "smart guys" trying to get both LAL and Min ML in plus value?

Anyone has info on this?

[pxher]

Do you think blake griffins play time will be limited due to an ankle injury the other night?

[Speedy88]

Just read that Nets are 1-7 ATS following a win as an underdog.

Lets go Bobcats!

[absolutkaos]

LTA would u suggest buying up to +2 if the line is +1.5????

Remember LTA's key closing numbers are 2 & 7. I paid the extra -010 to get the 2, you'd hate to lose if they lose by 2 when it could otherwise be a push.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/9/2012

Play #1

Bobcats (+2) 1x (Locked)

This is a prime situational play as opposed to a value investment. Most of the market is at 1.5, but Legends is continuing to hang the +2 so I'm going to jump on that now as I do not see Nets money pushing this one beyond the key number of 2. Just a few days ago, the Nets defeated the Cats by 3 points in Charlotte but did not cover as 4.5 point faves. In that game, the Bobcats were without Biyambo and the Nets' Deron Williams broke out for one of the highest scoring games of the year as he eclipsed the 50 point plateau. It was interesting to hear Paul Silas' take after the game where he responded to criticism about his strategy not to double Williams on the pick and role. Silas felt that it was the right call because it kept them in the game and limited the production from Williams' teammates and the numbers seem to support his strategy. Consequently, I would not be surprised to see Silas use the same strategy today, but with a more successful result. In this game, Lopez will not play for NJ and a healthy Biyambo's presence in the paint will be a big lift for Charlotte looking to avenge that recent loss. Charlotte has the advantage in points in the paint and in fast-break points/efficiency and I think a healthy Maggette, Henderson, Augustin, White and Biyambo should be able to win this game at home against a wildly inconsistent Nets team. There is a reason the books are adjusting their line in this game 2.5 points or more in favor of Charlotte. It is unlikely that Williams has another 50 point game and the removal of Diaw from the team is another qualitative factor that makes me like Charlotte today. I also question whether the Nets will get "up" for this game knowing that they just beat this team. As far as line movement, the majority of all bets are on the Nets yet the line continues to move in the Bobcats direction which is always a good sign. I think this is a great situational spot to back the Bobcats for all the reasons mentioned above and I am rolling with Charlotte for 1x. Good luck .

Play #2

Knicks/Bucks over (206) 1x (Locked)

I was going to make this a 2x play if I could have gotten 204, but that never materialized for me and I got burnt by waiting for it after it dropped to 205 earlier this morning. I ended up missing the steam and before I knew it, the total was up to 207.5. Now that it's down to 206, I am going to lock it up and take a shot at the over. Milwaukee has been playing at a blistering PACE over the last five games which is second in the league to, you guessed it, the Knicks. I expect this game to be lightning fast with neither team worried about defense. Without Chandler, there is no one on the Knicks to hold their other teammates accountable on the defensive end. Regardless, a Dantoni-coached team is always offense first anyway. In this case, even though Milwaukee used to be a great defensive team under Skiles, that is not the case this year as they are ranked in the bottom third of the league in most defensive statistically relevant categories. The refs are Fraher, Mott and Twadorski, which isn't a bad crew. Mott was an animal for unders last year, but that was not the case throughout the rest of his career and seems to more of an anomaly. Fraher is a long-time over guy and Twardorski is a young pup but has also favored the over in his short time. I have this game set at 209 giving us three points of value, but I would not take this over 207. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Roto97]

Play #2

Knicks/Bucks over (206) 1x (Locked)

I was going to make this a 2x play if I could have gotten 204, but that never materialized for me and I got burnt by waiting for it after it dropped to 205 earlier this morning. I ended up missing the steam and before I knew it, the total was up to 207.5. Now that it's down to 206, I am going to lock it up and take a shot at the over. Milwaukee has been playing at a blistering PACE over the last five games which is second in the league to, you guessed it, the Knicks. I expect this game to be lightning fast with neither team worried about defense. Without Chandler, there is no one on the Knicks to hold their other teammates accountable on the defensive end. Regardless, a Dantoni-coached team is always offense first anyway. In this case, even though Milwaukee used to be a great defensive team under Skiles, that is not the case this year as they are ranked in the bottom third of the league in most defensive statistically relevant categories. The refs are Fraher, Mott and Twadorski, which isn't a bad crew. Mott was an animal for unders last year, but that was not the case throughout the rest of his career and seems to more of an anomaly. Fraher is a long-time over guy and Twardorski is a young pup but has also favored the over in his short time. I have this game set at 209 giving us three points of value, but I would not take this over 207. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Any more plays on the card for today LTA?

Appreciate all the work that you do.

[JM92]

I still only have 206.5... Im going to keep waiting for it to drop down. I figured you might play it as well if it dropped down. As always, good to know you have a play that I already like.

I would also like to see that Mavs/Kings total go a bit down and play the over there.

[jas19illini]

I dont have very many Unders on tonights card, thats for sure. Haha.