LTA's NBA Plays

**Love The Action** · 03-05-12, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/5/2012

Play #1

Sixers (-2) 1x (Locked)

I suspect this one moves soon, so im locking it up now. I suppose people could make an argument thay this is a trap game but I just dont see it and instead believe philly is undervalued because of their b2b, 3 in 4 situation. However, philly has excelled all season in fatigue spots going 7-4 ats in b2b spots, plus both teams are playing their 5th game in 7 nights. This play is all about defense as philly dominates over the bucks in that category. More importantly, philly has one of the best mid range and perimeter defense which is what the bucks' offense is predicated on without bogut. In the last game between these teams in late january, philly won easily as 8.5 to 9 point faves. Some might argue revenge, but I think philly's loss last night to chicago should keep them motivated for this game. I have this game set at -3.5 for philly giving almost a full fg of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the sixers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Pacers/Bulls under (188) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup. I have this game set at 185 giving us three points of value and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Warriors/Wizards over (202.5) 1x (Locked)

Busy day at work guys. No writeups today. Got burned on the bulls under line movement but I dont have time to watch the lines and I like that play at any number above 187. I have this total set at 206 so I am jumping on the 3.5 points of value here and i'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

**fitguy67** · 03-05-12, 02:08 PM

for those using pinny (for bets or for reference)...right now u can get

PHI -1.5@-110 (half-point bargain)

IND/CHI,o189.5@-110 (one-and-a-half points bargain)

**CoachemUp** · 03-05-12, 02:32 PM

Love the Bulls under as well LTA. BOL to all those playing! FYI it's at 190 (-115) at Bovada.

**aussieH** · 03-05-12, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by donkey33

Sorry to clutter the thread but as an aussie, what sportsbook do you use? I was using the aussie ones (sportingbet, etc) but I'm sick of them only offering a market on certain games and not all games.

Sportsbet. Centrebet. Tab sportsbet. They generally have all the markets except for props and live games they only have certain games. Sportsbet are generally first with the markets

**Roto97** · 03-05-12, 02:45 PM

I love the Philly and bulls play. However, the warriors seem to struggle to break 90 the past few games w/o curry. I am gonna pass on this one.

Hopefully he plays tonight. BOL.

**JM92** · 03-05-12, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Play #3

Warriors/Wizards over (202.5) 1x (Locked)

Busy day at work guys. No writeups today. Got burned on the bulls under line movement but I dont have time to watch the lines and I like that play at any number above 187. I have this total set at 206 so I am jumping on the 3.5 points of value here and i'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Love this play as well and already locked it in @ 203.

For those afraid Warriors will be scoring less points again, think twice. The last 4 teams they played are all way better than the Wizards defensively. The Wizards did try to d-up and play some half-court sets for the first time this season that I've seen, against the Cavs, still, their defense is going to be lousy for a big part of the game and they will be runnin up and down against the Warriors. Golden State might feel a little tireness on their legs, but that's a still young bunch and Lee and Ellis should be ready to go. Last 10 games between these two teams, the lowest scoring output was 206.

**SiMON2g** · 03-05-12, 02:54 PM

Like the Philly play, don't know how they didn't win yesterday, but they will be very motivated for this one.

**SlickRick1382** · 03-05-12, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by JM92

Love this play as well and already locked it in @ 203.

For those afraid Warriors will be scoring less points again, think twice. The last 4 teams they played are all way better than the Wizards defensively. The Wizards did try to d-up and play some half-court sets for the first time this season that I've seen, against the Cavs, still, their defense is going to be lousy for a big part of the game and they will be runnin up and down against the Warriors. Golden State might feel a little tireness on their legs, but that's a still young bunch and Lee and Ellis should be ready to go. Last 10 games between these two teams, the lowest scoring output was 206.

They actually were on a good pace yesterday against the Raptors who are a defensive minded team. They had 47 points through the 1st half of the game but self imploded in the 2nd half only scoring 28 the rest of the way.

I think they come out and definitely put up better numbers. I also like the pace that the Wizards run which should keep the game up tempo. Should be close ...

**jas19illini** · 03-05-12, 03:12 PM

Anyone like the Bulls tonight? First game against Indiana they lost by 5 on home court and D Rose was not happy about how the Pacers celebrated after the game. I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder tonight.

**fitguy67** · 03-05-12, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by aussieH

Sportsbet. Centrebet. Tab sportsbet. They generally have all the markets except for props and live games they only have certain games. Sportsbet are generally first with the markets

Pinny is in a class by itself for line-shopping bargains, but not for live betting or a wide variety of exotic props. Apart from pinnacle, i'd add 5dimes of course, and Unibet and Nordicbet to AussieH's list.

For live-betting, bet365 is outstanding. For the widest availability of props, look to 5dimes and (especially for UFC) Unibet.

**apurvaas** · 03-05-12, 03:35 PM

had 2 out of these 3 locked in before I saw your post.. feeling more confidant.. Liking your wizards over (bought half) and locked at 202..

Took Under 211 for Denver Sac (may be a wrong call) but its a half unit play so lets see

BOL

**yankeekansan** · 03-05-12, 04:27 PM

I'm tailing all 3 of these plays and on 5dimes right now...

Warriours/Wizards OVER 203 -106 (reduced juice) (1X)
Philly -2 -105 (1X)
Pacers/Bulls UNDER 189.5 -105 (2X)

My units are smaller than LTA's, but I'll tail LTA on any NBA play. His insight is terrific and I feel, gives us all an edge. Good luck players!

**NaccAttack** · 03-05-12, 04:57 PM

Love the plays LTA I'm on all 3! thanks

**apurvaas** · 03-05-12, 05:01 PM

after looking at ref assignments I am worried for Wizards game
20 of 26 games called by Jason Phillips have stayed under total. Phillips calling Warriors game tonight (from covers.com twitter page)

If line climbs up, will try to middle or buyback.. Lets see!
BOL

**nightlife32** · 03-05-12, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by jas19illini

Anyone like the Bulls tonight? First game against Indiana they lost by 5 on home court and D Rose was not happy about how the Pacers celebrated after the game. I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder tonight.

I'm definitely on Chi-7 look for Rose to go off. They are gonna make a statement on there home floor. Plus, know they will need to see the Pacemakers in the playoffs gl.

**brucethebear** · 03-05-12, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by donkey33

Sorry to clutter the thread but as an aussie, what sportsbook do you use? I was using the aussie ones (sportingbet, etc) but I'm sick of them only offering a market on certain games and not all games.

Being in Oz, you can pretty much go with any OS book. I would suggest having at least one American book if you are serious about betting US sports. However, having a non-US book also gives you the advantage of stale lines.

**Roto97** · 03-05-12, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by apurvaas

after looking at ref assignments I am worried for Wizards game
20 of 26 games called by Jason Phillips have stayed under total. Phillips calling Warriors game tonight (from covers.com twitter page)

If line climbs up, will try to middle or buyback.. Lets see!
BOL

Well the line movement is looking good for this game. Pinnys 203, Bovada 204.

**wguan2** · 03-05-12, 06:33 PM

stephen curry declared out. wash -1 looks pretty good. dont know about the over anymore

**jimmy007oc** · 03-05-12, 06:34 PM

it's 201.5 @ 5dimes now

**wguan2** · 03-05-12, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by wguan2

stephen curry declared out. wash -1 looks pretty good. dont know about the over anymore

Sorry guys, report changed via rotoworld. it looks like he's just not starting but may play.

BOL everyone on the play.

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-05-12, 06:49 PM

Wow...watched every total line on the GS/Wash game drop to around 01.5 and then pop right back within a couple of minutes to 03/03.5. That was weird.

**wguan2** · 03-05-12, 06:55 PM

was because stephen curry was declared out and then 5 minutes later, he was declared not starting but may play. crazy how the market responds so quickly.

**Taro Punk** · 03-05-12, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by wguan2

was because stephen curry was declared out and then 5 minutes later, he was declared not starting but may play. crazy how the market responds so quickly.

Yup, whatever he said

**hawley** · 03-05-12, 07:15 PM

Wizards and Warriors not playing one bit of D

**rjp322** · 03-05-12, 07:38 PM

Solid 65 point quarter. 41-24 lol. Not a shabby start

**BobbyD914** · 03-05-12, 07:40 PM

Great 1st quarter...thanks for the plays LTA

**Love The Action** · 03-05-12, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/5/2012

Play #1

Sixers (-2) 1x (Locked)

I suspect this one moves soon, so im locking it up now. I suppose people could make an argument thay this is a trap game but I just dont see it and instead believe philly is undervalued because of their b2b, 3 in 4 situation. However, philly has excelled all season in fatigue spots going 7-4 ats in b2b spots, plus both teams are playing their 5th game in 7 nights. This play is all about defense as philly dominates over the bucks in that category. More importantly, philly has one of the best mid range and perimeter defense which is what the bucks' offense is predicated on without bogut. In the last game between these teams in late january, philly won easily as 8.5 to 9 point faves. Some might argue revenge, but I think philly's loss last night to chicago should keep them motivated for this game. I have this game set at -3.5 for philly giving almost a full fg of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the sixers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Pacers/Bulls under (188) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup. I have this game set at 185 giving us three points of value and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Warriors/Wizards over (202.5) 1x (Locked)

Busy day at work guys. No writeups today. Got burned on the bulls under line movement but I dont have time to watch the lines and I like that play at any number above 187. I have this total set at 206 so I am jumping on the 3.5 points of value here and i'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Mavericks (+7) 1x (Locked)

I expect a close game. I have Dallas set at +5.5 giving us 1.5 points of value but I think Dallas plays even better than my model predicts. This is a big game for both teams, but especially Dallas and I am rolling with the Mavs for 1x. Good luck.

**Les_Nuts** · 03-05-12, 08:11 PM

I'm on Nowitzki over 22.5, so this sort of ties into your play. GL on play 4 LTA, I will not tail because I do not like betting against the thunder but I hope you cash it

**SlickRick1382** · 03-05-12, 08:14 PM

Great 1H of basketball for the Warriors / Wizards game.

Need a combined 87 points in the 2H.

**CLITcommander44** · 03-05-12, 08:33 PM

uhhhohhh this 3rd quarter in warriors wizards game is worrying me

**chief42** · 03-05-12, 08:33 PM

dang missed that Dallas +7, hope it hits for you guys!

**h23jdmlude** · 03-05-12, 08:37 PM

4 plays tonight.. I love it LTA. BOL on them.

**mikea33** · 03-05-12, 08:44 PM

Guys always let the games Play out......seriously.

**absolutkaos** · 03-05-12, 09:07 PM

ca$h it with 4 minute$ to go boy$!!! great $tart LTA!!

**NOREGRETS** · 03-05-12, 09:08 PM

LTA, I missed the Mavs play. I have them at +7 for the 2H. Should I leave it be or pull the trigger? Thanks bud.