LTA's NBA Plays

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Whenever I use to say that my pops would reply, "Fool's seldom differ".

. After further review not touching the Sixers game, too tight.

As per the under's and lack of preseason, I agree to a degree. On the other hand we need to remember that all these dudes know how to score, and have been shooting during the off season. Defense requires schemes, trust, and repetition to get a feel for where your fellow team mates will be and how they react to different situations. Not saying that offense doesn't need many of the same elements, but free wheeling, iso type offenses won't be affected as much as 1/2 court offenses with new personnel. Team defense cannot be honed taking jumpers in the gym, only with practice time as a unit.

Fools seldom differ

I agree with your comments, but I am talking from the perspective of discussing scoring in relation to the posted totals. So far, over the last two days, the market unanimously agrees that the books are setting these total numbers too high. Most of the games have dropped with very little buyback before the game.

**FlaxMartin** · 12-26-11, 03:32 PM

I am tailing tonight sir!

**Goat Milk** · 12-26-11, 03:47 PM

I have this game set at 177 and we're getting over 3 points of "value." I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

How do you set this number when the bobcats are different team than last year? I say it falls right around that total. Bobcats will be pushing the pace a little more this year than last. GL with your season.

**No coincidences** · 12-26-11, 04:00 PM

You can typically never go wrong with an under below 180 or an over above 220 in the NBA. Good luck LTA.

**Ryannn222** · 12-26-11, 04:10 PM

What you think about the lakers at sacramento LTA its at -2 half right now

**BernardMadoff** · 12-26-11, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

So basically they want even money on both sides is what you are saying?

I can understand that if one specific book does this, but all the books simultaneously change the number together, so that is what I don't get?

They can't all be simultaneously trying to get money on the other side?

I just don't get this at all. I can get one book trying to balance, but they all follow one? Who is the leader?

Books dont want to be exploited so they will change a number, not all the time though, also people line shop, so they will go to the book with the best number and the number will move.

**Dexter** · 12-26-11, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 12/26/2011

Play #1

Memphis (+6)(-120) 1x (Locked)

nice...i played this as well, but at 5.5

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 06:39 PM

I have this game set at 177 and we're getting over 3 points of "value." I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Originally posted by Goat Milk

How do you set this number when the bobcats are different team than last year? I say it falls right around that total. Bobcats will be pushing the pace a little more this year than last. GL with your season.

Most of the advanced stats I use are based on last season's numbers and then reconfigured according to player movement and coaching changes relevant to this season. As always, historical referee information is also weighed. During the first couple of weeks, I have less up-to-the-minute quantitative data to cull through and depend more qualitative factors, blind eye and historical numbers pertaining to new players and coaches.

GL to you as well.

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

You can typically never go wrong with an under below 180 or an over above 220 in the NBA. Good luck LTA.

Same to you Coiner! Where is your NBA season thread?

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

nice...i played this as well, but at 5.5

That's good...let's get it Dex!

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by Ryannn222

What you think about the lakers at sacramento LTA its at -2 half right now

No opinion. As I stated above, the line seems to indicate Sacramento but I'm not willing to trust them at this point. I'm not high on the Lakers either though, so I will pass.

**nmodi** · 12-26-11, 06:48 PM

LTA what do u think abt this teaser OKC +1/2/Chicago -1/2?

~Naman

**YouHave2outs** · 12-26-11, 07:09 PM

Thoughts on Warriors +6.5? It would be a homer pick for me, but I certainly didn't bet them last night. I'm picking spots, and this would be my second bet of the season... I had Heat/Bulls ml parlay with you yesterday. I feel like Golden State matches up well with the Bulls, and Chicago is coming off a huge win last night while being away from family during the holidays.

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by nmodi

LTA what do u think abt this teaser OKC +1/2/Chicago -1/2?

~Naman

As long as you like it. It's hard to think those two teams don't win.....

**jimmy007oc** · 12-26-11, 07:21 PM

Buck and bobcats game is not looking now. They play with high offense pace

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by YouHave2outs

Thoughts on Warriors +6.5? It would be a homer pick for me, but I certainly didn't bet them last night. I'm picking spots, and this would be my second bet of the season... I had Heat/Bulls ml parlay with you yesterday. I feel like Golden State matches up well with the Bulls, and Chicago is coming off a huge win last night while being away from family during the holidays.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bulls win by 4 or 5 and this one be a close game. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by jimmy007oc

Buck and bobcats game is not looking now. They play with high offense pace

They've both hit their rhythm and are shooting at an unsustainable pace. The Bobcats are shooting 60% and that won't last.

I'm not worried, this game is one 30 point quarter away from an easy cash.

As I'm sure you know, the NBA is almost as brutal as the NFL. I've been on overs where I've had 68% of the wager covered at halftime and still lost.

Let's just see what happens.

**highroller79** · 12-26-11, 07:34 PM

Dear LTA,
thank you for your picks and deep analysis as always. I also like your picture Mr. Walt White!!
What do you think of Nuggets/Mavs over 202? The Nuggets will run all the way shooting 1000 times as usual and as will the Mavs against the fast teams. I know the Mavs are kinda tricky after a lousy game, but just want to hear your opinion.
BOL!

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by highroller79

Dear LTA,
thank you for your picks and deep analysis as always. I also like your picture Mr. Walt White!!
What do you think of Nuggets/Mavs over 202? The Nuggets will run all the way shooting 1000 times as usual and as will the Mavs against the fast teams. I know the Mavs are kinda tricky after a lousy game, but just want to hear your opinion.
BOL!

I'm not so sure how the Nugs are going to play out of the gait with a pretty different look in the lineup and bench. I think the line is pretty accurate at this point. The only that matters is your own opinion bud, so if you like it you should pull the trigger. GL

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 07:47 PM

That NJ/Wash over did not turn out to be a good play win or lose. I bought it at 190 and it closed at 189. However, the Mil/Char play was a great play as I got it at 180 and it closed at 177.5. Still looking like we were ahead of the market on that Memphis play as well. Hopefully we can somehow hit two of those early plays.

Might have one more late play. Off to eat some dinner. Good luck tonight.

**gRamblin' Man** · 12-26-11, 08:49 PM

Checking in for that last play LTA

We need more points from the Wizards/Nets LETS GET IT!

**Trivial** · 12-26-11, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

It's not uncommon for 3-6 point moves in NBA totals. It is uncommon to see those types of moves in most of the games on the board in the same day.

This is basically the preseason and the books, syndicates, sharps and the public are still trying to figure out where the line should be.

Gotcha buds. Thanks. Appreciate the advice/help.

**Trivial** · 12-26-11, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

Books dont want to be exploited so they will change a number, not all the time though, also people line shop, so they will go to the book with the best number and the number will move.

Fair - but you see all the books change within seconds of each other (looking at SBR). Does this mean 1 or several people are buying a number at all the different books that quickly of one another?

**Donnie Brasco** · 12-26-11, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

Fair - but you see all the books change within seconds of each other (looking at SBR). Does this mean 1 or several people are buying a number at all the different books that quickly of one another?

No that will usually indicate a sharp or syndicate has made a play which effects the whole market. That what happens when billy walters makes a play. The whole screen lights up!

**815Sox** · 12-26-11, 09:05 PM

Glad I played that Heat/Bulls teaser yesterday. It was close, but its always awesome when your favorite team wins you money like that (Bulls of course, f the heat, except when I pick em)

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by 815Sox

Glad I played that Heat/Bulls teaser yesterday. It was close, but its always awesome when your favorite team wins you money like that (Bulls of course, f the heat, except when I pick em)

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by gRamblin' Man

Checking in for that last play LTA

We need more points from the Wizards/Nets LETS GET IT!

Might have 1 more...we need OT in that Wizards/Nets game

**gRamblin' Man** · 12-26-11, 09:47 PM

15 or so minutes to tip-off. Lookin for a late game winner!

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 12/26/2011

Play #1

Memphis (+6)(-120) 1x (Locked)

There's not going to be a ton of spots where I buy points in the NBA, but I think -120 is worth it in this case. I love the look of this Memphis team coming off last year and having a healthy Rudy Gay. Even though the Spurs are playing with revenge from last season's playoff series loss, I am not convinced that the Spurs will have the ability to beat this young and hungry Grizzlies team by more than 6 points, even at home. With an aging "big three" of Duncan, Parker and Ginobli, along with role players like Dejuan Blair and an older Richard Jefferson, the Spurs will be a playoff team. However, I think we've seen a passing of the torch from the Spurs, Lakers and Mavs to some of the younger upper-echelon teams like the Thunder, Grizzlies and Clippers. In this case, I think it will be difficult for the Spurs to stop the front-court of Z-Bo and Gasol, with the toughness of Allen and Conley at guard. Make no mistake, the Grizz plays defense and I think of them a lot like the Western Conference's Bulls. The Grizz play strong team defense and an overall tough mentality. The Spurs are without McDyess in the frontcourt, Hill is gone and Neal is sidelined by an appendicitis. I think the toughness and depth of Memphis will be too much for the Spurs to completely stop tonight. I have this game set at +2 and we're getting a full 4 points of variance by buying the hook on a game that I think will close around +4.5. Therefore, that's too much value to pass up and I'm rolling with the Grizzlies for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Bucks/Bobcats under (180.5) 1x (Locked)

There's not much we need to say about this one. I love sweating out low total unders and this one is set that low for a reason. Despite some decent guard play in this game between both teams, I expect a slower grind-it-out pace. This one is starting to move, so I will shorten the writeup in order to get it posted. I have this game set at 177 and we're getting over 3 points of "value." I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Nets/Wizards over (190) 1x (Locked)

I see this one hitting 200 as I think we see a lot of "streetball" tonight. The Nets are without a front court presence sans Lopez and the Wizards have some depth down low which will lead to some easy baskets in the paint. In addition, the Wiz are young, athletic and looking to run with that depth down low and Young and Wall on the wings. With Deron Williams on the Nets, I think they oblige a fast pace in this game and we see a lot of running on both sides. I don't have as many stats to support my play like I will once each team has played about 5 games each, but it's not difficult to predict how teams will play if you are an NBA devotee. We have a majority of all plays on the under in this game by a 25/75 split, but I think we end up seeing a closer at 191 or more. I have this one set at 194 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

76'ers/Trail Blazers over (187) 1x (Locked)

I'm going to fade the late move here. I think these two teams are very evenly matched and we should see some decent scoring opportunities. While both of these are solid defensive teams, I like the pace they played in the preseason and how these two teams match up. I have this game set at 192 and we are getting 5 points of variance with the posted total. Refs are relatively neutral, but with a slight under lean unfortunately. Nevertheless, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

**nbaprofosor** · 12-26-11, 09:57 PM

than play# 5 ,play#6

keep locking them

**NYSportsGuy210** · 12-26-11, 09:58 PM

Parlay Blazers/Bulls ML tonight.

Second half of Memphis -San Antonio - Total Team points for Grizzlies...OVER or UNDER 46?

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 09:59 PM

I was really surprised by how poorly the Wizards played at home and how great Charlotte played. I expected those two teams to play oppositely. Oh well, that's why there will be an adjustment period for the first half of the season.

In addition, even though I played two overs today, I think the line movement is pretty evident that Vegas is setting these early season totals too high. Therefore, we need to keep our eye on some unders for the forseeable future.

Let's get these final two games and tread some water for the night. GL

**Love The Action** · 12-26-11, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by nbaprofosor

than play# 5 ,play#6

keep locking them

What's your lock of the night profosor?

**gRamblin' Man** · 12-26-11, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210

Parlay Blazers/Bulls ML tonight.

Second half of Memphis -San Antonio - Total Team points for Grizzlies...OVER or UNDER 46?

ON IT

Originally posted by Love The Action

Play #4

76'ers/Trail Blazers over (187) 1x (Locked)

I'm going to fade the late move here. I think these two teams are very evenly matched and we should see some decent scoring opportunities. While both of these are solid defensive teams, I like the pace they played in the preseason and how these two teams match up. I have this game set at 192 and we are getting 5 points of variance with the posted total. Refs are relatively neutral, but with a slight under lean unfortunately. Nevertheless, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

and ON IT!

LETS GET IT GUYS!

**nbaprofosor** · 12-26-11, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

What's your lock of the night profosor?

4 play no lock