LTA's NBA Plays

[Love The Action]

Great opening day!

If not for the Celtics/Knicks debacle, we would have been 3-0 =+4x. However, I will take 3-1 =+2.9x any day. Official record update coming up and then we will start getting today's plays posted.
Let's keep the momentum going. Good luck!

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, congrats to a great start. Looking forward to your plays for tonight

[Trivial]

Congrats LTA. What a way to start my NBA season. (My first ever - tailing you).

Looking forward to another great day. I managed to get +2.3x based on different prices you got vs. me, but I am okay with that any day.

Can't wait for tonight now. :-)

[jaks440]

Nice start - tagging along to see what you are taking tonight!

Keep it up

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/25/2011 Recap

3 - 1 = +2.9x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

3 - 1 = +2.9x

The daily grind begins and I love it. Good luck this season.

[Love The Action]

Remember, my units for NBA and MLB are much higher than we use for NFL or NCAAF. Therefore, money management is key. For this NBA season, my units will be fluctuating around $400 each and will be increasing or decreasing depending on profit (I recommend you use 3% of your BR per 1x). Therefore, we will continue our 1x-5x unit scale that we employed for the MLB season with some very rare plays 6x and above. We don't chase, throw out 50x make-up plays or go all-in. If you are looking to make quick money, then this thread is probably not for you. However, if you are committed to making long-term profit and slowly but steadily building your bankroll, then I encourage your participation here.

I look forward to a smart, collaborative effort as this thread is about all of us working together to get better at this business and increasing our edge against the books. Feel free to join in and provide injury updates, share information about teams/players, discuss your own plays, comment constructively on my plays (whether in support of or against them), discuss line movement, ask questions or offer words of encouragement. This is the "thinking man's" thread and we are looking for a positive contribution from everyone.

Good luck this season.

[Trivial]

Remember, my units for NBA and MLB are much higher than we use for NFL or NCAAF. Therefore, money management is key. For this NBA season, my units will be fluctuating around $400 each and will be increasing or decreasing depending on profit. Therefore, we will continue our 1x-5x unit scale that we employed for the MLB season with some very rare plays 6x and above. We don't chase, throw out 50x make-up plays or go all-in. If you are looking to make quick money, then this thread is probably not for you. However, if you are committed to making long-term profit and slowly but steadily building your bankroll, then I encourage your participation here.

I look forward to a smart, collaborative effort as this thread is about all of us working together to get better at this business and increasing our edge against the books. Feel free to join in and provide injury updates, share information about teams/players, discuss your own plays, comment constructively on my plays (whether in support of or against them), discuss line movement, ask questions or offer words of encouragement. This is the "thinking man's" thread and we are looking for a positive contribution from everyone.

Good luck this season.

Amen brother. Hope you had a great day with the family yesterday.

To anyone new to LTA : He is real and genuine in his words above. Be positive even after a 0-5 day. The long term means everything not the quick wins and cash.

Best of luck.

[dredmahawkus]

LTA how do you feel about under 199 orlando and under 208 oaklahoma.......both teams didnt score enough to cover those overs yesterday and playing back to backs.

I should say do unders have more value with all these back to backs.....or do they lack playing defense with back to backs.

[r1kkie]

Remember, my units for NBA and MLB are much higher than we use for NFL or NCAAF. Therefore, money management is key. For this NBA season, my units will be fluctuating around $400 each and will be increasing or decreasing depending on profit. Therefore, we will continue our 1x-5x unit scale that we employed for the MLB season with some very rare plays 6x and above. We don't chase, throw out 50x make-up plays or go all-in. If you are looking to make quick money, then this thread is probably not for you. However, if you are committed to making long-term profit and slowly but steadily building your bankroll, then I encourage your participation here.

I look forward to a smart, collaborative effort as this thread is about all of us working together to get better at this business and increasing our edge against the books. Feel free to join in and provide injury updates, share information about teams/players, discuss your own plays, comment constructively on my plays (whether in support of or against them), discuss line movement, ask questions or offer words of encouragement. This is the "thinking man's" thread and we are looking for a positive contribution from everyone.

Good luck this season.

Looking good LTA! Cant wait for tonights picks.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/26/2011

Play #1

Memphis (+6)(-120) 1x (Locked)

There's not going to be a ton of spots where I buy points in the NBA, but I think -120 is worth it in this case. I love the look of this Memphis team coming off last year and having a healthy Rudy Gay. Even though the Spurs are playing with revenge from last season's playoff series loss, I am not convinced that the Spurs will have the ability to beat this young and hungry Grizzlies team by more than 6 points, even at home. With an aging "big three" of Duncan, Parker and Ginobli, along with role players like Dejuan Blair and an older Richard Jefferson, the Spurs will be a playoff team. However, I think we've seen a passing of the torch from the Spurs, Lakers and Mavs to some of the younger upper-echelon teams like the Thunder, Grizzlies and Clippers. In this case, I think it will be difficult for the Spurs to stop the front-court of Z-Bo and Gasol, with the toughness of Allen and Conley at guard. Make no mistake, the Grizz plays defense and I think of them a lot like the Western Conference's Bulls. The Grizz play strong team defense and an overall tough mentality. The Spurs are without McDyess in the frontcourt, Hill is gone and Neal is sidelined by an appendicitis. I think the toughness and depth of Memphis will be too much for the Spurs to completely stop tonight. I have this game set at +2 and we're getting a full 4 points of variance by buying the hook on a game that I think will close around +4.5. Therefore, that's too much value to pass up and I'm rolling with the Grizzlies for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/26/2011

Play #1

Memphis (+6)(-120) 1x (Locked)

There's not going to be a ton of spots where I buy points in the NBA, but I think -120 is worth it in this case. I love the look of this Memphis team coming off last year and having a healthy Rudy Gay. Even though the Spurs are playing with revenge from last season's playoff series loss, I am not convinced that the Spurs will have the ability to beat this young and hungry Grizzlies team by more than 6 points, even at home. With an aging "big three" of Duncan, Parker and Ginobli, along with role players like Dejuan Blair and an older Richard Jefferson, the Spurs will be a playoff team. However, I think we've seen a passing of the torch from the Spurs, Lakers and Mavs to some of the younger upper-echelon teams like the Thunder, Grizzlies and Clippers. In this case, I think it will be difficult for the Spurs to stop the front-court of Z-Bo and Gasol, with the toughness of Allen and Conley at guard. Make no mistake, the Grizz plays defense and I think of them a lot like the Western Conference's Bulls. The Grizz play strong team defense and an overall tough mentality. The Spurs are without McDyess in the frontcourt, Hill is gone and Neal is sidelined by an appendicitis. I think the toughness and depth of Memphis will be too much for the Spurs to completely stop tonight. I have this game set at +2 and we're getting a full 4 points of variance by buying the hook on a game that I think will close around +4.5. Therefore, that's too much value to pass up and I'm rolling with the Grizzlies for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Bucks/Bobcats under (180.5) 1x (Locked)

There's not much we need to say about this one. I love sweating out low total unders and this one is set that low for a reason. Despite some decent guard play in this game between both teams, I expect a slower grind-it-out pace. This one is starting to move, so I will shorten the writeup in order to get it posted. I have this game set at 177 and we're getting over 3 points of "value." I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[horseface2721]

Love this pick. Spurs didn't do well against them last year without Gay.

[smflanagan]

LTA, what is the amount of your 1x play? I saw your comment about $400 so does that mean when you say 1x it should be a $400 play?

[Donnie Brasco]

Yes his units for nba = $400, so 1x =400, and so on

[Redscot]

NBA 2011-2012 12/25/2011 Recap

3 - 1 = +2.9x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

3 - 1 = +2.9x

The daily grind begins and I love it. Good luck this season.

Great start bro . Started this message over an hour ago and visitors showed up. Was gonna say how I liked Memphis today, and now see you are on them . Also think we have some value with Ok. City. They are young enough and have enough depth to handle the quick back to back......all teams know going into the season that they are gonna have to be prepared to play these type of games to be successful in this compacted season. Have a small lean to Philly as well, but need to look a little harder at that one. GL today!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/26/2011

Play #1

Memphis (+6)(-120) 1x (Locked)

There's not going to be a ton of spots where I buy points in the NBA, but I think -120 is worth it in this case. I love the look of this Memphis team coming off last year and having a healthy Rudy Gay. Even though the Spurs are playing with revenge from last season's playoff series loss, I am not convinced that the Spurs will have the ability to beat this young and hungry Grizzlies team by more than 6 points, even at home. With an aging "big three" of Duncan, Parker and Ginobli, along with role players like Dejuan Blair and an older Richard Jefferson, the Spurs will be a playoff team. However, I think we've seen a passing of the torch from the Spurs, Lakers and Mavs to some of the younger upper-echelon teams like the Thunder, Grizzlies and Clippers. In this case, I think it will be difficult for the Spurs to stop the front-court of Z-Bo and Gasol, with the toughness of Allen and Conley at guard. Make no mistake, the Grizz plays defense and I think of them a lot like the Western Conference's Bulls. The Grizz play strong team defense and an overall tough mentality. The Spurs are without McDyess in the frontcourt, Hill is gone and Neal is sidelined by an appendicitis. I think the toughness and depth of Memphis will be too much for the Spurs to completely stop tonight. I have this game set at +2 and we're getting a full 4 points of variance by buying the hook on a game that I think will close around +4.5. Therefore, that's too much value to pass up and I'm rolling with the Grizzlies for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Bucks/Bobcats under (180.5) 1x (Locked)

There's not much we need to say about this one. I love sweating out low total unders and this one is set that low for a reason. Despite some decent guard play in this game between both teams, I expect a slower grind-it-out pace. This one is starting to move, so I will shorten the writeup in order to get it posted. I have this game set at 177 and we're getting over 3 points of "value." I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Nets/Wizards over (190) 1x (Locked)

I see this one hitting 200 as I think we see a lot of "streetball" tonight. The Nets are without a front court presence sans Lopez and the Wizards have some depth down low which will lead to some easy baskets in the paint. In addition, the Wiz are young, athletic and looking to run with that depth down low and Young and Wall on the wings. With Deron Williams on the Nets, I think they oblige a fast pace in this game and we see a lot of running on both sides. I don't have as many stats to support my play like I will once each team has played about 5 games each, but it's not difficult to predict how teams will play if you are an NBA devotee. We have a majority of all plays on the under in this game by a 25/75 split, but I think we end up seeing a closer at 191 or more. I have this one set at 194 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[GChild]

Bucks game down to 178.5 shhht

[Love The Action]

LTA, what is the amount of your 1x play? I saw your comment about $400 so does that mean when you say 1x it should be a $400 play?

That's for me and my BR. For you and your BR, you should play about 3% of your BR per 1x. If you want to get really aggressive, put 4% as 1x. However, I would not recommend going any higher. Otherwise you will not be able to sustain the bad runs. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Great start bro . Started this message over an hour ago and visitors showed up. Was gonna say how I liked Memphis today, and now see you are on them . Also think we have some value with Ok. City. They are young enough and have enough depth to handle the quick back to back......all teams know going into the season that they are gonna have to be prepared to play these type of games to be successful in this compacted season. Have a small lean to Philly as well, but need to look a little harder at that one. GL today!

Great minds think alike!

I also lean OKC, but need to look at a few more things. Although, I agree that OKC should be one of the better b2b teams this year.

I am going to lay off the side in Portland/Philly. Those are two solid teams and I could see the spread being covered either way by who scores last. Pass for me.

Good luck today buddy and Merry Christmas!

[Love The Action]

Bucks game down to 178.5 shhht

There's been some crazy movement on totals all morning. The board's been lit up for the last 3 or 4 hours. A lot of movement on unders as I think sharp money agrees that the shortened preseason and b2b games will lead to less scoring.

I wanted to play the Bulls under at 196, but I got up to move the baby to his play area and it was at 194 when I got back....wtf, that's some big movement.

GL today Gmoney!

[horseface2721]

There's been some crazy movement on totals all morning. The board's been lit up for the last 3 or 4 hours. A lot of movement on unders as I think sharp money agrees that the shortened preseason and b2b games will lead to less scoring.

I wanted to play the Bulls under at 196, but I got up to move the baby to his play area and it was at 194 when I got back....wtf, that's some big movement.

GL today Gmoney!

with you on the over on the nets/wizards, i can see williams and wall having some pretty big games. memphis is so deep and spurs are old, there is no way they wax them in this game.

liking your posts so far.

[Love The Action]

Amen brother. Hope you had a great day with the family yesterday.

Same to you bud!

[Love The Action]

LTA how do you feel about under 199 orlando and under 208 oaklahoma.......both teams didnt score enough to cover those overs yesterday and playing back to backs.

I should say do unders have more value with all these back to backs.....or do they lack playing defense with back to backs.

I have a big lean on the over in the Rockets/Magic game. I also lean to the under in OKC/Minny, but will probably pass. GL

[dredmahawkus]

see all the total movements this half hour? all middles and money movements?

[Trivial]

Same to you bud!

Thanks. 'twas a great day.

[Trivial]

Bucks now at 181? These NBA line moves are far weirder than NFL. First down then up.

[djpremier36]

Damn LTA, looks like we will be on opposite sides in the MEM/SA game. I'm all over the "revenge" factor. The losses of Vasquez and Arthur are being overlooked and they will be a huge hindrance to the Grizz depth and rotation. The demise of Spurs is not as imminent as most believe.

I'm also liking the Kings at home so far @ +2.5/+120 ML. They opened up as only a +3.5 home underdog to the Lakers. First time in years they opened lower than +4, which I think is key. Throw in the back-2-back game for LAL and a young, uptempo team in SAC that has the firepower and depth to win outright.

BOL!

[EasyPicks]

I'm playing the Over at Magic tonight!

Like your Memphis play LT

GL

[EasyPicks]

Bucks now at 181? These NBA line moves are far weirder than NFL. First down then up.

Bookies do it all the time in the NBA. They are middling the book (all they want is a leveled book and win the juice)!

[Redscot]

Great minds think alike!

I also lean OKC, but need to look at a few more things. Although, I agree that OKC should be one of the better b2b teams this year.

I am going to lay off the side in Portland/Philly. Those are two solid teams and I could see the spread being covered either way by who scores last. Pass for me.

Good luck today buddy and Merry Christmas!

Whenever I use to say that my pops would reply, "Fool's seldom differ". . After further review not touching the Sixers game, too tight.

As per the under's and lack of preseason, I agree to a degree. On the other hand we need to remember that all these dudes know how to score, and have been shooting during the off season. Defense requires schemes, trust, and repetition to get a feel for where your fellow team mates will be and how they react to different situations. Not saying that offense doesn't need many of the same elements, but free wheeling, iso type offenses won't be affected as much as 1/2 court offenses with new personnel. Team defense cannot be honed taking jumpers in the gym, only with practice time as a unit.

[Love The Action]

Bucks now at 181? These NBA line moves are far weirder than NFL. First down then up.

Bookies do it all the time in the NBA. They are middling the book (all they want is a leveled book and win the juice)!

To some extent, however, there has been much more volatile movement than is usual and its mostly under money driving down numbers 3-5 points on totals.

There's been some buy-back, and I expect more, but the market has decided that most of the released totals are too high.

[Trivial]

Bookies do it all the time in the NBA. They are middling the book (all they want is a leveled book and win the juice)!

So basically they want even money on both sides is what you are saying?

I can understand that if one specific book does this, but all the books simultaneously change the number together, so that is what I don't get?

They can't all be simultaneously trying to get money on the other side?

I just don't get this at all. I can get one book trying to balance, but they all follow one? Who is the leader?

[Trivial]

To some extent, however, there has been much more volatile movement than is usual and its mostly under money driving down numbers 3-5 points on totals.

There's been some buy-back, and I expect more, but the market has decided that most of the released totals are too high.

Thanks LTA. I do expect that with the season just started for things not to be "normal", as this seems to me to be quite amusing since I've never watched NBA lines before.

I don't fully buy into the middling the market, since each sports book is after their own good.

But I do understand that they do have to follow each other or be destroyed by competitors also who do.

Interesting topic which has always intrigued me.

[Love The Action]

Damn LTA, looks like we will be on opposite sides in the MEM/SA game. I'm all over the "revenge" factor. The losses of Vasquez and Arthur are being overlooked and they will be a huge hindrance to the Grizz depth and rotation. The demise of Spurs is not as imminent as most believe.

I'm also liking the Kings at home so far @ +2.5/+120 ML. They opened up as only a +3.5 home underdog to the Lakers. First time in years they opened lower than +4, which I think is key. Throw in the back-2-back game for LAL and a young, uptempo team in SAC that has the firepower and depth to win outright.

BOL!

Good stuff. However, I would ask you where's the depth on the Spurs that will be able to blow out the Grizz? I'm not saying the Spurs won't exercise that revenge and win, however, I doubt they win by more than 2-4 points.

Sacramento seems to be the play according to the line movement. I will pass though. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Thanks LTA. I do expect that with the season just started for things not to be "normal", as this seems to me to be quite amusing since I've never watched NBA lines before.

I don't fully buy into the middling the market, since each sports book is after their own good.

But I do understand that they do have to follow each other or be destroyed by competitors also who do.

Interesting topic which has always intrigued me.

It's not uncommon for 3-6 point moves in NBA totals. It is uncommon to see those types of moves in most of the games on the board in the same day.

This is basically the preseason and the books, syndicates, sharps and the public are still trying to figure out where the line should be.