John Morrison 2010 NBA

[Wilba]

Cleveland [c bet] covered.
PS. I would avoid to chase LAC they suck.

time and time again, people make the mistake of thinking that how good/bad a team is has ANY bearing WHATSOEVER on whether they will cover a series or not.

Clippers win by a blowout 21 point margin today, as 3.5 point underdogs.

For future reference, to save the types of comments above from continuing, please remember that we are NOT betting on a team to win a game in the series, ONLY TO COVER! A team does not need to WIN the game in order to COVER! Some of the worst teams in the league are always up there with the best in covering spreads, and some of the best teams in the league are among the worst at covering spreads.

A few series back, with both Orlando and Denver, I heard people say something like 'orlando and denver are a series lock because they are good teams'. Well orlando and denver are 9-16 and 8-15 ATS respectively (and both series went to a C bet). The Clippers at 13-14 ATS were much closer to a series lock as the Clips have performed much better ATS than the two 'good' teams. Bad team does NOT = bad team ATS. And the spread is all we are ever interested in with JM series.

[Wilba]

Chicken dinna winna with the Clips tonight. AGAIN not needing to buy the points.

you must have missed the detailed stats about the win/loss records when not buying points. I think you should read back a few pages.

and "AGAIN" not needing to buy any points!? The Lakers C bet less than a week ago was a loss if you didn't buy points. That one would have hurt if you didn't...

[Wilba]

Glad I got my brain scan.

gotta love it when people try to burn the system... but then after the game they get burnt when the team wins in a blowout 21 point victory!

I just cancelled my brain scan booking

[stevex]

Not even going to get into an argument about this or that. I got over 100+ units not buying points last season so. Again, not arguing just stating a fact, but thanks Wilba!

[Wilba]

Not even going to get into an argument about this or that. I got over 100+ units not buying points last season so. Again, not arguing just stating a fact, but thanks Wilba!

sure, each to their own of course (who said anything about an argument btw!? I was just trying to offer helpful info in case you missed the posts).

I realise that you do not play the system, rather you use the system plays combined with a labby to make money, which is great. Could I suggest that if you are going to promote not buying points, that you just clarify that you are talking about not buying points when using the system plays in conjunction with a labby, and that you are not talking about not buying points being good when playing the traditional system.

The only reason I say this is that, a while back, there were a number of people toying with the idea of playing the system and not buying points. Some detailed stats were provided on this matter, and it was proven beyond a shadow of doubt that not buying the points (when playing the traditional system) will cost you big bucks in the long run. Not buying the points with the system has turned big winning seasons, not just into small winning seasons, but big losses!

Just so that people who play the system traditionally do not get mislead.

Congrats on the win today mate

[Wilba]

ps. 2 more A bet losses today, to take season record for A bets (when buying 3 points) to 27-24, a 52.9% hit rate at -170 to -190 odds.

Now 14 straight A bet wins required just to get playing all A bets back to even, from the current -8.12 unit A bet deficit. Maybe a few other people will come around on the value of not playing A's at all.

Having said that, the current 52.9% strike rate for A bets will very likely improve between now and the end of the season. I would expect by seasons end that all A bets will have hit closer to 60%. Though, of course, that still makes for a losing A bet season, once again!

[jphil]

winna winna, B bet buffeta; w/ no A sides, please.

wonder how many extreme losses there would be w/ just buying 2 pts.? All right, stats dept., let's have it on my desk by morning. We should always be lookin to cut costs.

[knugen]

B bet on Utah tonight, right? Any more bets?

[EXpertcapper]

ok cool

[JW Cash]

ps. 2 more A bet losses today, to take season record for A bets (when buying 3 points) to 27-24, a 52.9% hit rate at -170 to -190 odds.

Now 14 straight A bet wins required just to get playing all A bets back to even, from the current -8.12 unit A bet deficit. Maybe a few other people will come around on the value of not playing A's at all.

Having said that, the current 52.9% strike rate for A bets will very likely improve between now and the end of the season. I would expect by seasons end that all A bets will have hit closer to 60%. Though, of course, that still makes for a losing A bet season, once again!

One way to take advantage of the A Bets not having
a good win pct is to do what Solaman is doing in his
NBA Thread.....

He is like 41-0 since start of the season....( with 3 game Away Teams )

I added his method today as another nice little Income Stream...

His is a progression/chase situation but of course.....
you can do a Labourchere to eliminate any undue stress.....

[jphil]

12/18: (v2)-utah-B.
(v3)-philly-A.

12/19: (v3)-phoen.-B.
(v3)-hous.-A.

[Kev the Brit]

B bet on Utah tonight, right? Any more bets?

Yes, there is a V3 A Bet on Philadelphia, who will be on the road for 8 games from tonight until 01/03/2011. The first 3 games are all in conference (Orl, Chi, Bos) and will be completed on 12/22. They then pause for the holidays and set off again for 5 games out of conference (V1) starting on 12/26 against Den, GSW, Pho, LAL and NO.

The players will be back in their homes 23 - 25 Dec, so I think it is reasonable to say that they are commencing another road trip on 12/26.

I think we can play V3 and then V1, regardless of the outcome of the 3 in-conference games. However, we can can discuss this further on 12/26, while eating the remanants of our turkeys...

Anyway, for today:

Sat 12/18:

V2 B Bet: UTAH
V3 A Bet: PHILADELPHIA

Regards
Kev the Hopeful

[shermanator]

go utah and philly hope they both cover.

[Wilba]

One way to take advantage of the A Bets not have
a good win pct is to do what Soloman is doing in his
NBA Thread.....

He is like 39-0 since start of the season....( with 3 game Away Teams )

I added his method today as another nice little Income Stream...

His is a progression/chase situation but of course.....
you can do a Labourchere to eliminate any undue stress.....

thanks JW, will check that out

[dukipl]

v1 Clippers [b bet] vs. Pistons - WON!

NEXT:
v2 Jazz [b bet] vs. Bucks
v3 76ers [a bet] vs. Magic

[cmdyrds]

Roy will miss the next 3 games. http://www.rotoworld.com/content/home_NBA.aspx

thanks gg

[krzychu78]

JM's NBA V3 system:
12/17/2010 Charlotte @ Atlanta - V3, B bet - WIN
12/17/2010 Phoenix @ Dallas - V3, A bet - LOSS

V3 record so far (finished series): 20-1
(A): 11-10
(B): 8-2
(C): 1-1

V3 plays for today:
12/18/2010 Philadelphia @ Orlando - V3, A bet

[imotiv8]

Does orlando trade have any effect on game

[juice050]

hey can u show the record so far for v2? thanx

[juice050]

JM's NBA V3 system:
12/17/2010 Charlotte @ Atlanta - V3, B bet - WIN
12/17/2010 Phoenix @ Dallas - V3, A bet - LOSS

V3 record so far (finished series): 20-1
(A): 11-10
(B): 8-2
(C): 1-1

V3 plays for today:
12/18/2010 Philadelphia @ Orlando - V3, A bet

hey is it possible for you to show the record for v2 so far also?

[krzychu78]

hey is it possible for you to show the record for v2 so far also?

I think V2 record so far is: 10-1
(A): 8-3
(B): 0-3
(C): 2-1

[teecee]

gonna try a little teaser. why not?

[JW Cash]

...winna....winna...Italian Roasted Garlic Potato dinna.....


Philly and Jazz......You ROCK



Anyone else reaching new profit levels with their labbys like yours truly ???


...anyone ?????


Damn....this is better than makin love on a warm Santorini beach....... well almost......

[jphil]

A well deserved & needed "A" for most, and the usual "B" for us others.

[stevex]

JM, SBP, and CRUSHER all winners in basketball tn!

[Stevier100]

...winna....winna...Italian Roasted Garlic Potato dinna.....


Philly and Jazz......You ROCK



Anyone else reaching new profit levels with their labbys like yours truly ???


...anyone ?????

Hey JW Cash

would you be so kind as to show some of us who are interested in doing labby lines the way you do them as i know in an earlier post you found a way to help increase profit doing lines a different way??

25 25 25 25 25 25

As i understand it, this is the usual way to start a labby line!!

Cheers
Steve

[stevex]

As far as labby goes, there are several ways that you can run them. Basically it comes down to what you feel more comfortable with. There are 3 different styles of road trips (3 versions) so what I do is seperate each version into 3 seperate single line labbys. If you have a smaller bankroll then use the 2-line labby for each version, again it's all a matter of what your bankroll is and what you feel more comfortable with. Running a labby with JM NBA is the perfect way to maximize profit and minimize exposure to a C bet loss because the system does hit at a high percentage. So when that C bet does come up (which it has a couple of times already) and it loses you're not even effected since you're making up your loses (and profit) in the next series.

[dukipl]

2 wins for the night !

[Stevier100]

As far as labby goes, there are several ways that you can run them. Basically it comes down to what you feel more comfortable with. There are 3 different styles of road trips (3 versions) so what I do is seperate each version into 3 seperate single line labbys. If you have a smaller bankroll then use the 2-line labby for each version, again it's all a matter of what your bankroll is and what you feel more comfortable with. Running a labby with JM NBA is the perfect way to maximize profit and minimize exposure to a C bet loss because the system does hit at a high percentage. So when that C bet does come up (which it has a couple of times already) and it loses you're not even effected since you're making up your loses (and profit) in the next series.

Thanks for that stevex, how about a few examples how you would list say a c bet loss into your labby lines??

JW Cash said on post #2370......

I am getting a lot of PM's about what is better .......chasing or Labourchere....



Check this out....


I am testing different ways to implement labby...
-----------------------------------


OK


One test had 50% 3 Wins and 3 Losses

and it had +1.99 Units of Profit!
--------------

Another test had 10 Wins and 8 Losses

and it had +7.5 Units of Profit

------------------

And still another test had 14 Wins and 8 Losses
and this baby had +13.5 Units of Profit...........

--------------------

Would be great if JW could show those interested in using labby how he got the extra units in his testing!!

JW??????????????????


Steve

[krzychu78]

Yesterday i gave wrong stats for V2 version.
Correct stats (including Utah win) are: 11-1
(A): 8-4
(B): 1-3
(C): 2-1

[knugen]

Phoenix today, any more bets?

[krzychu78]

JM's NBA V3 system:
12/18/2010 Philadelphia @ Orlando - V3, A bet WIN

V3 record so far (finished series): 21-1
(A): 12-10
(B): 8-2
(C): 1-1

V3 plays for today:
12/19/2010 Phoenix @ Oklahoma City - V3, B bet
12/19/2010 Houston @ Sacramento - V3, A bet

[krzychu78]

Till Christmas we have also:
12/20: Milwaukee - V1,
12/20: Dallas - V2,
12/22: Chicago - V3,
12/25: Boston - V3,
12/25: Portland - V3.

[isg2010]

Are all of those [A] bets?

[krzychu78]

Are all of those [A] bets?

Yes they are. We don't have any pending series except for Phoenix (B) today.