John Morrison 2010 NBA

[Andy3568]

OK, now everyone has me confused, and I thought I was up to date on this system.

Here is JM's current system:

Bet on any team starting a road trip consisting of at least three games in the opposite conference. Bet it on a three-game chase unless:

(1) The best player is injured
(2) The team has the best road record.
(3) The team has the worst road record.

Bet on the spread +3 or the ML, whichever is better.

If a three-game opposing conference road trip starts with one or more games in conference, only bet the out of conference games if the team loses all the road in-conference games +3.

Now what filters should we drop to play the official system that everyone is talking about?

[atari5200]

Bet on the spread +3 or the ML, whichever is better.

you got it Andy.

some people think that "official" means that we have to adopt further changes to everything you just wrote because JM sends out stupid messages or filters to cover up losses.

the change we were talking about is betting on the ML if our away team is a favorite. JM has updated his pdf. to say that this is what we should do or else we will be straying from what is "official".

No one in their right mind should bet -300 or more just because JM wants to keep his winning % high. Bet the spread. Buy three points. That's it. That's the official way for all of us who know the way it's always been and we're not gonna change that by risking insane amounts of money for small gains.

[shermanator]

V3 Minnesota [B]
V3 Sacramento [A]

Minnesota has a 1-12 road record

[Wilba]

HI krzychu78 - that is wonderful and thankyou so much for doing that. At a quick glance I can see a few very important things that this research shows about the ML filter:

1) in 5 years, only 12/~600 series were affected when the ML filter was important. That is a tiny percentage!! Like 2 per year!
2) of the 12 series where ML was relevant, the ML filter only saved a series loss in 5 of those series! 7 of the series would have lost anyway!
3) in the 7 ML series which lost anyway, you risk a heap more money.
4) in any series where both ways woulda won, you risk way more with ML.
5) in the ONLY 5 series in 5 years where the ML filter makes a win (which would have been not a win w/out the ML filter), check this out: lets go through them 1 by 1 in order:
Detroit – V1 win: series (if not playing ML) was only a push on the C bet, not a complete series loss even without ML
Cleveland V1 win: series (if not playing ML) was a push on the A bet anyway, so no money lost
Detroit – V3 win: series was a loss if not playing ML. BUT! WITH ML IT ONLY WON ON THE C BET, after spread of -10, -8, and -11 ROFL to equate to ML that is like -500, -400, and -550. Thats a 213.5 unit chase to win 1 unit!!!
Dallas – V3 win: series (if not playing ML) was a push on the B bet anyway, so only lost an A bet w/out ML filter
Sacramento – V3 win:series (if not playing ML) was a push on the A bet anyway, so no money lost

SO IN SUMMARY: only once over that 5 years period did the ML filter turn a full losing series into a winning series!!! ONCE OUT OF 600 SERIES!!!

and you guessed it, the once where it DID make a difference, you still had to go to the C bet, AND YOU HAD TO OUTLAY 213.5 UNITS ON THE SERIES TO WIN 1 UNIT!

i think any dispute about the ML filter is now over.

many thanks krzychu as this is great help. If i knew you didnt give a *%^& about points (just like me) id give you all my points!

[J.M. Disciple]

Very good Info! I give 10pts for it. No one cares about points, but ill make sure i give you a winning bet in the near future. Let me find one that i can nearly gaurentee first though.

My own bets went 2-1 today *Dallas lost my parlay. Double digit under dogs went 0-2 for the system, however they would of qualified as TPS and if you were to buy 3pts would of added to more wins to the TPS.

I Really should start following that system. I just dont know when A B or C is. GSW would of been C wager i think, but looking at past games they lost like 5 games or something as Double digit underdogs.

[Kev the Brit]

Wilba:

i think any dispute about the ML filter is now over.

There was never any dispute about using/not using the ML filter. If it was a good idea, it would have been put in the system many years ago, just like the Morrison NHL. Krzychu's post has confirmed that it is ineffective. The dispute, from my perspective, was about posting plays under the "Morrison NBA 2010" without clarifying that the ML filter was being ignored.

Anyway, time to move on.

Regards
Kev

[J.M. Disciple]

My bets for tomorrow based on the games that are up right now:
Houston -9 vs SAC: Evans is out for the kings

Philly -1 vs NJN: This spread i clearly miss understand. Philly has won 9 out of their last 10 games and Nets have lost 9 out of their last 10, so philly seems like an easy bet for me. However the spread is probably low because philly is 1-10 on the road. Im hoping that losing road streak ends tomorrow.

ATL -4 vs Detroit: I think sports books should of gave ATl same spread as Houston -9. Look for this one to be a slaughter. Detroit won 2 out of their last 10 and ATL won 8 out of their last 10. Lets go Hawks!

GSW -3 vs min: Yes i know im going against the system "B BET" GSW is a good team 5-5 at home and Min is 1-12 on the road. Most teams usually win by at least 3 pts. Look at yesterdays games. On average out of those 5 games the teams win by 12.2 pts. Its hard to say GSW will not cover a -3 spread vs a struggling road team.

GL to all.

[J.M. Disciple]

Bynum is expected to play for the Lakers tomorrow vs washington. Thats why sportsbooks have not figured out the line yet. I will take lakers -10 or lower vs the wizards. Last game was pretty much a blow out then wizards cut down the lead in 2nd half of the game. Wall is also questionable to play and he made all the difference in their last game. If wall is out and bynum is out I am def taking lakers -10 or lower.

no totals today.

record is 11wins 11losses so far. Im down a little less than a unit because i won a couple of parlays.

[J.M. Disciple]

Sorry one last parlay forgot to post:
Parlay: ATL -4, gsw -3, phil -1: 6:1 on your money.


System bet: Minnesota +6 if you wish to make it; its a "B Bet!"

[J.M. Disciple]

SAC is also an "A BET" tomorrow, but remember A bet wins 61% of the time and with -170 odds you need 63% to win long run. With that said you should actually be fading "A bets" because of 1130 series it is not profitable to buy 3pts and make money due to juice.

Actually SAC is not an "A bet" because Tyreke Evans is out for the kings and he is the most efficent player on the kings. There for you should def fade the system on this one.

SYSTEM SAYS NO BET ON SAC due to player filter!

[ghislaine]

J.M. You said I should bet on double digit underdogs to keep it simple and clear lines. You stated 58% winning rate, am I right ??
just checking as both underdogs lost last night.

Never the less, thanks so much on everyones behalf for Your insight and posting Your actual plays !!

[ghislaine]

JM I am taking the two system bets, but also the Philly and Atlanta You posted.
BL to both of us, haha how funny would it be if the system lost out on Your picks...

It has not done too well like I said before, but still giving it a chance and playing the system bets...

for now at least ,
thanks good man

[ghislaine]

This is just a little off topic, but what do You experts think ??
Right now I am pretty much following
John Morrison sports betting champ
John Morrison sports picks buffet
Rich Allen sports bets professor
and SJ55 picks who is becoming somewhat a hero here !!

This is very much and I think I need to simplify it a little...
Who would You choose to follow ?? and why ??

All input is very very appreciated and thanks for all the help already JM, JW Cash and Kev and Wilba

[atari5200]

NBA handicapping, and service plays sections are full of people making personal plays or parlays. I don't wanna sound negative on this gentlemen but I'm not sure why personal picks are being posted here on this thread.

the ML favs stats were great to read, thanks for that. I appreciate all strategy talk because its all about understanding the system better. Those who also post upcoming system plays are great as well. So i'm not sure there needs to be personal picks posted here. Too many other places to do that on sbr. Is this not reasonable?

[GGPLAYER]

NBA handicapping, and service plays sections are full of people making personal plays or parlays. I don't wanna sound negative on this gentlemen but I'm not sure why personal picks are being posted here on this thread.

the ML favs stats were great to read, thanks for that. I appreciate all strategy talk because its all about understanding the system better. Those who also post upcoming system plays are great as well. So i'm not sure there needs to be personal picks posted here. Too many other places to do that on sbr. Is this not reasonable?

Fully agree. Simple solution is just start your own thread and post the link here so people can find it.

[GGPLAYER]

V3 Minnesota [b]
V3 Sacramento [A]

Minnesota has a 1-12 road record

I see people post information like this and I always find it a bit misleading for our purposes. Yes they are 1-12 SU but we are not worried about their W-L record. It's their ATS plus 3 points that I'm most concerned with. So if you look at that same 13 games they are 5-8 ATS and if you add the 3pts they are 7-6. Just my take on things.

[draco21]

Can someone email me shit about this system? I am actually intrigued.

[EasyHustlin]

This is just a little off topic, but what do You experts think ?? Right now I am pretty much following John Morrison sports betting champ John Morrison sports picks buffet Rich Allen sports bets professor and SJ55 picks who is becoming somewhat a hero here !! This is very much and I think I need to simplify it a little... Who would You choose to follow ?? and why ?? All input is very very appreciated and thanks for all the help already JM, JW Cash and Kev and Wilba

Everyone should be tailing sj right now, guy is hitting over 65% and isn't using a chase system. He is one of the best cappers on this site period.

[Kev the Brit]

atari5200, agreed with your post #2402, wholeheartedly.

Kev

[Kev the Brit]

ghislaine, If you have to make a choice, and its not always necessary to do so, it is better to play level (flat) bets if your BR is in its early days. Chase betting should be conducted with a very small percentage of the BR. So if your BR is less than $1K, you should only chase $20 (max) at a time, but with the same small BR, you can flat bet $100 and win $150 at a time. You need to follow a good capper when flat betting.

GL

Kev the bet

[ghislaine]

thanks Kev

[Kev the Brit]

OK GUys, it's time to discuss tonight's plays.

Minnesota, V3, B Bet, game on. Nothing more to be said, except that if it loses, we will have 2 C Bets tomorrow, which could be messy.

Now, on the other hand we have Sac Kings, V3, A Bet. I'm told that their main man (Evans) is out with an injury. This is not today's news, so the lines must have taken this into account. However, this is an A Bet and I'm tempted to pass on it, unless someone can convince me that the spread (+3) of +12 at odds of -180/1.55 is good value.

Regards
Kev the Cautious

[teecee]

And I bet you wouldn't of said anything if Philly and Portland would of got blown out. You would of not posted a single thing about it, but thats ok you want recogniition for it to make yourself feel better i understand.

where are your stats/evidence to legitimize betting i wouldn't have typed anything? you had stats to back what you said, and guess what? they were wrong.

the world champion lakers can't beat portland on the road, but orlando should've been favored? okay.

philly had been playing well of late, and old-ass boston was on a back-to-back. but you did not think it would go down to the wire. fine.

3) if the most efficient player on the team is out, then their is no bet. I.e. Carmello.

As for those of you who are asking if you should bet on detroit and Denver the answer is yes! They are C bets so stick with the system.

what!? how were they a "c" bet w/o their most efficient player?


For those of you who are waiting for John Morrisons Email to confirm the bet i dont understand. You already know the rules of the system, so why do you need someone to hold your hand in order to place a bet.

i agree, look at the schedule/results people.

1) buy 3pts if they are underdog.

yes, that's how it works.

2) If they are favorite take the money.

no, that's not how the system works. just b/c he changed the rules to make himself look good does not make it right. stick with the system where you lay -170 or thereabouts, not -450 moneylines. get a clue.


It is really not that hard.

agreed.

and i apologize in advance for coming off harsh.

i don't.

[krzychu78]

JM's NBA V3 system:

V3 record so far (finished series): 17-1
(A): 11-7
(B): 6-1
(C): 0-1

V3 plays for today:
12/11/2010 Minnesota @ Golden State - V3, B bet
12/11/2010 Sacramento @ Houston - V3, A bet - Sacramento is unofficial because of absence of Tyreke Evans

[lawalahmed]

This is just a little off topic, but what do You experts think ??
Right now I am pretty much following
John Morrison sports betting champ
John Morrison sports picks buffet
Rich Allen sports bets professor
and SJ55 picks who is becoming somewhat a hero here !!

This is very much and I think I need to simplify it a little...
Who would You choose to follow ?? and why ??

All input is very very appreciated and thanks for all the help already JM, JW Cash and Kev and Wilba

Very simple, follow SJ55 every night then play only "C" Bet of Rich only (in November Rich had 6 "C" Bet and he won 5, that is 83.3% strike rate for average odd of 1.83 ) and beside Rich only lost "C" bet twice last yr and his during play - off. Finally play only JM Morrison all "C" bet ( V1, V2 and V3) buy only buy 2 point that will give average odd of 1.64 odd better than 1.58 in a long run......

Good luck in your final decision...

[J.M. Disciple]

the world champion lakers can't beat portland on the road, but orlando should've been favored? okay.

This line makes no sense to me. Just because Portland lost to the Lakers on the road, why does that make Portland favored over Orlando? Please provide me with better stats.

You cant compare Portland, Lakers, and Orlando. Each team has different match ups.

And I do not agree with making a C bet with most efficent player out. PHx Lost their series when Nash was out. Detroit striaght up lost their C bet and Denver just because they covered the spread, doesn't make it right to bet on the nuggets and disregard the rule.

The only filter we agree to disregard on this thread is betting ML favorites instead of buying 3pts.

YEs I was wrong about the Portland / Orl game. Everyone is wrong once in a while. However, I backed up what I said off actual stats and not a guess. Your reasoning behind it is that because Portland lost to the lakers on the road they should be favored vs Orlando? Common man give me a break.

[GGPLAYER]

[teecee]

the world champion lakers can't beat portland on the road, but orlando should've been favored? okay.

This line makes no sense to me. Just because Portland lost to the Lakers on the road, why does that make Portland favored over Orlando? Please provide me with better stats.

You cant compare Portland, Lakers, and Orlando. Each team has different match ups.

And I do not agree with making a C bet with most efficent player out. PHx Lost their series when Nash was out. Detroit striaght up lost their C bet and Denver just because they covered the spread, doesn't make it right to bet on the nuggets and disregard the rule.

The only filter we agree to disregard on this thread is betting ML favorites instead of buying 3pts.

YEs I was wrong about the Portland / Orl game. Everyone is wrong once in a while. However, I backed up what I said off actual stats and not a guess. Your reasoning behind it is that because Portland lost to the lakers on the road they should be favored vs Orlando? Common man give me a break.

just to clarify, the lakers cannot, for the life of them, beat portland at portland. my point is that i believe portland should always be a favorite at home. i believe the system works, but it's very discouraging when a series starts off at portland, and you have to play the moneyline, b/c the team you are to roll with is favored. we should have been given a few points imo, not that it would've mattered, but the fact that we had to play the ml, in order to follow the system, really stunk, and i knew/guessed it.

[teecee]

my beef was never really with jm disciple, but with the lines given out on these "jm" plays. they seem pretty bad at times.

portland is widely viewed as a tough place to play for visiting squads. here are spreads for the magic on the road on a couple occasions.

@ chicago on dec. 1 a place not really considered tough to visit
orlando +2

@ detroit (ooh, scary) on dec. 3
orlando -4

@ milwaukee on dec. 4
orlando +4.5

@ portland, a place, as stated, that's generally tough for visiting squads
orlando -2.5 ???????

we should've been given more points. you cannot argue that point. not that it would've mattered, but it wouldn't have been as annoying to see +4/5 as it was to see -2.5. my point is not to argue, to be honest, b/c like i said, my problem is not with anyone in this thread, it is with the shitty lines that get thrown at us.

[stevex]

I don't understand why there's such confusion in here. A team has 3 road games in a row, you buy 3 points on the spread or you don't buy the points, whats the problem?

[J.M. Disciple]

I don't understand why there's such confusion in here. A team has 3 road games in a row, you buy 3 points on the spread or you don't buy the points, whats the problem?

no one is argueing that.

[J.M. Disciple]

@ Portland L 103-112
@ Portland

W 99-82
@ Portland L 98-107
@ Portland L 94-111

[J.M. Disciple]

@ Portland L 103-112
@ Portland

W 99-82
@ Portland L 98-107
@ Portland L 94-111

You are right Lakers do struggle at Portland.

so you make a good point with Portland @ home being a hard place to play at. Im not sure if the bookies take this into consideration when they are making their lines. They look at how the team is playing in the current year mostly because every team gets new players. Now i see your point more clearly. If you would of stated this in your first post there would of been no discussion about it. It seemed like you were going off a guess though. My apologies for being rude.

Orlando vs POrtland

@ Portland L 83-97
@ Portland L 87-102
@ Portland W 109-108

[chilidog]

You guys complicate the system way too much; the rules are pretty clear. Just follow them.

[J.M. Disciple]

50-26 (66%) +31.8 units

50-26 (66%) +31.8 units
for Sweet Jones..............
I will start following.

JM is on Min, SBP is on gsw.