SK: NBA Playoffs 2010

WileOut · 04-23-10, 07:38 PM

good luck with your picks

suicidekings · 04-23-10, 08:12 PM

Added Live at the end of 3Q

Heat +5 (-116) x2
Heat ML (+291) x0.5

This game is going down to the wire. Locking up some some of my return, with a good chance at a middle if the Celts win by 1-4 pts.

suicidekings · 04-23-10, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

BOS 1Q O46 (-105) x2
BOS 1H O92 (-105) x3
BOS 1H ML (+125) x2
BOS ML (+165) x4
C.Arroyo points+assists +12½ -105* vs R.Rondo points+assists (x0.5)
LIVE: Heat +5 (-116) x2
LIVE: Heat ML (+291) x0.5

4-3 (+10.58u)

suicidekings · 04-23-10, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Adding:

UTA 1Q -1 (+100) x2
UTA 2Q -0.5 (-110) x1
UTA 1H -2 (+100) x2

2-1 (+1u)

Adding:

UTA 3Q -0.5 (+100) x2

suicidekings · 04-23-10, 11:24 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

UTA 3Q -0.5 (+100) x2

Added Live:

DEN ML (+460) x2

These two pretty much pay for each other. Locking up the profit for the night. I'll win more if the Nuggets come back, but hoping the Jazz take this game... Send those Thuggets home.

suicidekings · 04-23-10, 11:54 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

UTA ML (-135) x4
UTA 1Q -1 (+100) x2
UTA 2Q -0.5 (-110) x1
UTA 1H -2 (+100) x2
UTA 3Q -0.5 (+100) x2
DEN ML (+460) x2 <--- This didn't seem so ridiculous when I played it...

4-2 (+5u)

suicidekings · 04-23-10, 11:56 PM

4/23: 8-5-0 (+15.58u)
Playoffs: 34-34-4 (+24.03u)

Goat Milk · 04-23-10, 11:59 PM

good job with Boston today SK some of us are too stubborn sometimes

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 12:02 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

good job with Boston today SK some of us are too stubborn sometimes

I think we both know that game could have just as easily ended with a Miami win. Close game from start to finish. What are you thinking for game 4?

Goat Milk · 04-24-10, 12:07 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I think we both know that game could have just as easily ended with a Miami win. Close game from start to finish. What are you thinking for game 4?

I don't know what happened to Wade there at the end, but I'm thinking it may have been just a spasm or crampin up. If he doesn't play Boston sweeps the series with ease. If he plays its still a toss up and will have to analyze it more. But I Wade has taken almost every 1st round series of his career to 7, and he's been on far worse heat teams than this one this year.

SparJMU · 04-24-10, 12:33 AM

Nice call on Boston +4, that was definitely the right side. I still don't think my bet on Miami ML was far off. It's funny how one or two shots in the last 20 seconds can decide the outcome for thousands of bettors.

I like the looks of Milwaukee and Portland tomorrow, but it will take some serious guts to pull the trigger on those two considering the last 4 games of those series. Looking forward to reading your thoughts.

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 12:51 PM

4/24 Magic-Bobcats

This game is made for live betting. I feel like both teams will have leads at some point, and we'll definitely be able to pick up better lines live on both sides than what's available to start. But regardless of who ultimately wins, I feel like it will be very close at the end so my goal for the game is to find live lines with both teams getting points and ML at +money. I'm hoping to get at least one of these in the first quarter.

The Bobcats have a lot of pressure on them to play with the intensity at home that they lacked in Orlando, so I'm expecting a fast start to this game. A typical Bobcats home game final score is typically front-loaded in the 1H, but I think this is going to be a very intense game with tons of fouls all the way through, pushing it over easily.

Booked Plays

1Q Over 47 (+100) x2
1H Over 93 (-105) x2
GM Over 182 (-110) x4

IMO, this game ends with a final score within ~5 points, so I feel it will be possible to get +9.5 or better for the Cats and +5.5 for the Magic if I'm patient, with the associated moneylines through live betting.

williams22 · 04-24-10, 12:57 PM

SK what books are you using for your live bets?

sweetjones55 · 04-24-10, 12:58 PM

Good luck today on your plays.

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by williams22

SK what books are you using for your live bets?

Pinnacle and 5Dimes.

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Good luck today on your plays.

And to you as well.

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 02:31 PM

Bobcats 2H (+135) x1
Bobcats 3Q (+115) x1
4Q U45 (-110) x1

SimonSayz · 04-24-10, 02:34 PM

31 points in the 2nd quarter? Wtf.

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 02:51 PM

Bobcats ML (+145) x5

SimonSayz · 04-24-10, 03:23 PM

Any thoughts on Phoenix 1q or 1h?

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 03:24 PM

Blazers ML (+122) x5

Brandon Roy is playing... Line plummeting.

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by SimonSayz

Any thoughts on Phoenix 1q or 1h?

I was going to play the POR 1H ML, but I only managed to get my above bet in before the line plummeted. Going to wait and see, and play it live.

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 03:51 PM

BOBCATS: -10.5u....

Original plan was to bet on a tight game and try to middle it... Obviously i didn't follow the plan.

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Blazers ML (+122) x5

I hedged out in the 2Q:

PHX ML (+165) x4.2

Guaranteed profit of 1.9u on this game.

williams22 · 04-24-10, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I hedged out in the 2Q:

PHX ML (+165) x4.2

Guaranteed profit of 1.9u on this game.

Nicely done SK.

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by williams22

Nicely done SK.

Thanks. It's what I meant to do in the Charlotte game, but completely dropped the ball. Seems like the best strategy for the playoffs. Just try to arb every game that you think will be close...

ie: every game.

williams22 · 04-24-10, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Thanks. It's what I meant to do in the Charlotte game, but completely dropped the ball. Seems like the best strategy for the playoffs. Just try to arb every game that you think will be close...

ie: every game.

Exactly. I'm thinking of developing an Excel model to chart my bets throughout the game and instantly determine which bet to make to raise my EV of the game throughout. Haven't quite figured it out in my head yet though.

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by williams22

Exactly. I'm thinking of developing an Excel model to chart my bets throughout the game and instantly determine which bet to make to raise my EV of the game throughout. Haven't quite figured it out in my head yet though.

For MLs it's pretty easy to build an arb calculator. It's those +point spreads that I want to start attacking though and shoot for the middles.

HoulihansTX · 04-24-10, 05:31 PM

Great call on the Celtics. Heat are not for real.

williams22 · 04-24-10, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

For MLs it's pretty easy to build an arb calculator. It's those +point spreads that I want to start attacking though and shoot for the middles.

Oh yeah ML is easy for sure, but I'm thinking about the spreads. Becomes a lot more difficult to model. If you ever feel like working on it I'm all ears and can handle the Excel end.

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 06:42 PM

Added at end of 1Q, 36-19 Bucks

Hawks +10.5 (-104) x2
Hawks ML (+467) x0.5

Bucks in an epic blowout? I don't think so. The Hawks will at least make it respectable.

williams22 · 04-24-10, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Added at end of 1Q, 36-19 Bucks

Hawks +10.5 (-104) x2
Hawks ML (+467) x0.5

Bucks in an epic blowout? I don't think so. The Hawks will at least make it respectable.

I got the Hawks at +10, let's get this.

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by williams22

I got the Hawks at +10, let's get this.

Are we ever on the wrong side of this one...

I'm on fire today.

dsklein85 · 04-24-10, 08:09 PM

any leans on LAL/OKC?

suicidekings · 04-24-10, 08:42 PM

LAL 1Q (first 6 min) O12 (-115) x1
LAL 1Q O25 (+100) x1