Noob capping questions, ask away!

**biggbird** · 10-10-10, 05:58 PM

i reckon this might be what you're after? comes out 9am eastern every day.

**sweetjones55** · 10-10-10, 06:00 PM

I find the reffing assignments on covers.com and NBA.com

**brumbies** · 10-10-10, 11:07 PM

You including the preseason games in your record? I find that preseason games are really a crapshoot. They can go either way.

**sweetjones55** · 10-10-10, 11:26 PM

Originally posted by brumbies

You including the preseason games in your record? I find that preseason games are really a crapshoot. They can go either way.

No that's not true. The Spurs +7.5 at home was a great play the other night vs Miami. No Bosh, LeBron playing significant minutes. That was easy money. You just have to pounce on these lines as soon as you get that info.

**brumbies** · 10-15-10, 11:44 PM

Sweetjones, not sure whether this question's been asked but do you think it is important to watch the games in order to handicap? Some people just cap based on statistics and do not even watch a single game.

**dom75** · 10-16-10, 08:48 PM

I am glad I have found this posting. Thank you to all who have posted tips and advice within this posting. I am deff taking notes and am just a bit wiser now.

**sweetjones55** · 10-25-10, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by brumbies

Sweetjones, not sure whether this question's been asked but do you think it is important to watch the games in order to handicap? Some people just cap based on statistics and do not even watch a single game.

I think that watchign the games is important. It's fine to take a look at the stats but why not get as much information as possible and actually watch the game yourself. Sometimes the stats don't tell everything. For example, say a person shoots 2-12. Some people might think that was an off shooting night for that but they may not realize that maybe the guy was getting double teamed all night or was just being guarded very well. You won't know unless you watch the game.

**Mike9999** · 10-25-10, 05:45 PM

Thanks to SJ and everybody else who has contributed to this thread.

**Raven66** · 10-25-10, 09:23 PM

Hey sweetjones......i see you mentioned Pinnacle....you Canadian? From Ontario?

**dude_bg** · 10-27-10, 09:53 AM

just to be sure,
if spread is shown team A vs team B -3, would that mean that If team A wins by any margin , the bet is successful?

**miyakuza** · 10-27-10, 10:17 AM

^Have you bet spreads before? If you take Team A and Team B only wins by 2, you still win. Of course if team A wins outright you win

**dude_bg** · 10-27-10, 10:30 AM

sorry the spread i meant was TEAM A vs TEAM B +3, so if team A wins by 2, i lose right?
so far i have seen spreads where the spread is like team A- x vs team B+x

**demens** · 10-29-10, 01:38 PM

Question about line movement:

I seem to have a basic understanding of RLM, so 3 things can possible happen as far as movement
1) RLM - Public bet in on Team A, Line is moving in favor of Team A, Vegas wants you to continue to bet Team A thus Team B might be the right play.
2) Ehh, nomal Line Movement - Public bet is on Team A, Line is moving against team A, Vegas wants you to stop betting on Team A. Bet Team A if you still like the spread.
3) No movement - what then? Example is tonight OKC game. Public 86% on OKC, line hasn't moved from -6. What does that mean?

**Chimneyfish** · 10-29-10, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by dude_bg

sorry the spread i meant was TEAM A vs TEAM B +3, so if team A wins by 2, i lose right?

No- if you bet Team B +3 and Team A wins the game by 2 points then you win your wager. Using this same example, if you had bet Team A -3 then you would lose a game in which Team A won by 2 points.

**demens** · 10-31-10, 06:56 PM

So what else can you tell from line movement?

What indications do you look for. What do people mean when they say they like/dislike the movement? What does it mean when the juice for 1 side changes? How can you tell what sharp money is on?

**sweetjones55** · 10-31-10, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by demens

So what else can you tell from line movement?

What indications do you look for. What do people mean when they say they like/dislike the movement? What does it mean when the juice for 1 side changes? How can you tell what sharp money is on?

When the public is betting on a team, you want to see the line moving against that team if you want to take that team. For example, if you want to take the Heat -6 and the public is all over the Heat. You want to see the Heat go to -7. Why? Because if the books didn't move the line then they are essentially telling you that they want even more money on the Heat at -6 since they didn't move the line to -7 and try to devalue it.

When the books are offering a line like Heat -7 +100 then you have to wonder, why would they be letting me bet on the Heat and not have to pay juice if I lose? The answer a majority of the time is that they don't think the Heat will win. Or viceversa they could have the Heat -2 -125 1Q, why are they making you pay 25% juice? The answer is that they are tyring to get people off of the Heat 1Q by charging a lot of juice. You want to look at sites like Pinnacle and TheGreek since they are the sharpest books to determine these things.

**FuzzyNugs** · 11-01-10, 12:38 AM

How can you tell what the public is voting on? What sites do you recommend?

**tanner40** · 11-01-10, 12:48 AM

Thespread.com
Pregame.com
SBRlines.com

**sweetjones55** · 11-01-10, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by FuzzyNugs

How can you tell what the public is voting on? What sites do you recommend?

Google: "public bet tracker", Go to the first website that pops up. The sites above are OK also. If you really want the bets numbers then sign up for a membership at sportsinsights.com

**ManBearPig** · 11-01-10, 03:57 AM

I just read this thread in its entirety when I should be going to sleep and I must say I may have to read this again to process all the information that resides here. The fundamentals of betting that you are covering here is something that most of us "sheep" don't fully understand because we don't take the time to or the information just isn't obvious, so it's helpful to see you try to condense anything into one place - kudos to you.

I think one of the hardest things with betting is knowing where and how to start or better yet how to be successful. You'll probably find that a lot of the good cappers put their time in and found the answers out on their own through trial and error and this makes their knowledge very important to them. There was no internet or any other sort of guide to help things along...it was grit and determination.
This isn't a hobby/career/side-job for the weak and you have to be willing to fail before you can succeed.

I think one thing that stood out to me is that while everyone has their own capping style and ways they approach capping - each one of you seems to be smart, successful, and probably would be considered more of a leader than a follower. It takes a certain mindset to be successful just in general whether it's running your own business or becoming CEO, and I think that translates to gambling as well. If you think of it as a business and run it like one you won't accept losing money over the long-term and you do this by knowing your business inside and out and how it makes money and loses money.

You mentioned CK a couple times so you must have taken advice from him and from what I recall he's one of the best as what he does so you have a very solid foundation and as young as you are just imagine how much more you'll know in 10 years if you keep at it with the same dedication. Anyways...I don't know why I'm still talking but good job and keep doing what your doing. It's funny how a few random thoughts can turn into a 500 word essay.

**shantystar** · 11-01-10, 06:39 AM

GL.

**demens** · 11-01-10, 10:18 AM

I haven't been around that long, but 1 thing that concerns me is that most of the guys considered the best at this have been members since 09, that 1-2 year. Where are all the best cappers from 05? 06? Bankrupt?

I've seen a few guys in the NFL thread come up with reasons why a play they posted was not a loss even though what they posted WAS a loss. 1 guy says he bet on a team with their star and the star went down mid game so it doesn't count.....whaaaaaat? Another guy said the line he posted changed, and most people that bet won since they used the new line, even though the line he actually posted was a loss. Again......whaaaat? And these are guys that have been on the site for 2+ years and have a big following.

Also notice some people warn others that sometimes picks are posted but the person posting them is actually betting on the other team. They are trying to trick you. Dont quite under why they would do this, and what kind of scumbag peace of shit you'd have to be to even think of that.

Are these things something i should be concerned with?

**tokio** · 11-04-10, 09:09 AM

SJ, when the team totals dont add up to the game total should that concern a bettor? Or is this just not irrelavent?

**sweetjones55** · 11-04-10, 09:20 AM

Originally posted by tokio

SJ, when the team totals dont add up to the game total should that concern a bettor? Or is this just not irrelavent?

I haven't really tracked this to be honest but I tihnk it's irrelavent.

**eddie0vedder** · 11-04-10, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by demens

I haven't been around that long, but 1 thing that concerns me is that most of the guys considered the best at this have been members since 09, that 1-2 year. Where are all the best cappers from 05? 06? Bankrupt? I've seen a few guys in the NFL thread come up with reasons why a play they posted was not a loss even though what they posted WAS a loss. 1 guy says he bet on a team with their star and the star went down mid game so it doesn't count.....whaaaaaat? Another guy said the line he posted changed, and most people that bet won since they used the new line, even though the line he actually posted was a loss. Again......whaaaat? And these are guys that have been on the site for 2+ years and have a big following. Also notice some people warn others that sometimes picks are posted but the person posting them is actually betting on the other team. They are trying to trick you. Dont quite under why they would do this, and what kind of scumbag peace of shit you'd have to be to even think of that. Are these things something i should be concerned with?

i think when the better cappers have a good year or two they get offered spots on capping sites and stop capping here to be fair to clients and also good cappers get pissed off at all the wankers on here and stop posting plays. im just speculating by the way but it seems to make sense

**gamble4heisman** · 11-05-10, 11:21 AM

what do you estimate is the price of a half point on quarter lines?