70% math plays 2009-10 tracking

[barts185]

Monday, 03/08/10


Since none of the teams are playing today, figured I would get this done early.


CLE/SAS game doesn't have a line, because they are concerned that Cleveland might sit LeBron again. I doubt that will happen, but I didn't realize it last game, or like the rest of the world, would have pounded Milwaukee. I can't imagine this game being a play either way. San Antonio can't qualify because of Tony Parker now being out for most likely the rest of the season. This will be the first game he's out - San Antonio is on a 1 week can't use clock. Cleveland, while they have the issues discussed previously (post 633), would only qualify if they are an underdog, PK, or -1. At -1.5 or higher, they don't qualify. I will play this game if Cleveland qualifies and LeBron is playing and there are no other new injury issues, but I'd be willing to book bets now that if LeBron is playing, the line will be higher than -1.

Memphis qualifies at the opening line of -9, and I don't see any injury issues for them, they are a play.

Dallas qualifies mathwise, but see my previous post (#663) talking about concerns. Add to that list of concerns the fact that Haywood is questionable (he missed last game). Even if Haywood does play (and my best guess RIGHT NOW - could obviously change as the game gets closer, is that he won't play), Dallas won't have kept the same starting lineup for 2 games in a row in the last week (this will be the 5th game with a changing starting lineup, even if it is their "normal" starting lineup). I'm personally passing the game - good luck if you play it.


So, Memphis is a play.

Good Luck,
Bart

[HoulihansTX]

Memphis qualifies at the opening line of -9, and I don't see any injury issues for them, they are a play. So, Memphis is a play. Good Luck, Bart

Thank you this substantiates my play. GL tonite

[HCBoone]

Thanks for a brilliant write up and good luck with your play.

[Club]

For what it's worth, vegasinsider shows the line opened at Memphis -10.

[barts185]

For what it's worth, vegasinsider shows the line opened at Memphis -10.

Yeah, I saw that. And some linetrackers I see also showed that it opened at 10 for about 10 minutes. All I can say is that I was logged into the place that puts the first number up at the time they put it up, and it was 9. Not sure why the reports are showing 10, and for 10 minutes at that.


I'll be interested in seeing what they show for Miami/Charlotte for tomorrow. It was 3.5 for about a minute and then moved to 3 and it's stayed at 3.

[Club]

I don't know how reliable vegasinsider is. I'm very conservative with these systems. If there is any reason not to play it, I won't play it. There's always tomorrow. But, I know you (barts) are too. If you're playing it, I probably will.

[barts185]

Oh, and BTW, if you're talking about the LVSC open column (not sure that you are) at Vegasinsider, that's a joke.

I -WISH- I could bet into the LVSC sendout numbers on games.

[Club]

Yeah, that's what I was looking at.

[barts185]

If they didn't have laws to keep them in business LVSC would have gone out of business a LONG time ago.

If you ran a book, and didn't put the numbers up until about 6-8 hours after offshore has been dealing them, what numbers would you use?

A) The ones given to you by a place that by law you have to pay to get their numbers
B) The ones which have been pounded into place by the early bettors in the offshore world.

My favorite story about LVSC was a few years ago when they actually wanted to start a TOUT service.

-NO- conflict of interest there

"Here's the numbers you should use, and here's the ones that are wrong and we're going to tell people to bet on."

Yeah, that would have worked well.

[Club]

I don't want to waste time on this but what about scoresandodds.com? That site shows an opening line of 10 also?

I know everyone needs to make their own decisions. I'm mainly curious as to which sources are reliable for lines and which aren't. Thanks.

[barts185]

I'm seeing that the opening line was 10 in a number of places. So, everyone needs to make their own decision if they only want to use the opening line, and think it was 10.

As I said, I saw 9, and am looking when CRIS puts up their first numbers, which is what most people copy / adjust off of.

I've also seen places change the opening number, and have never gotten any explanation as to how that happens.


Take Care,
Bart

[Club]

Thanks for the discussion barts. I'm buying out, not because I don't like the play, but I'm very conservative and if there is any reason not to play it, I'll lay off. Good luck for those who play it. You should be in good shape based on the following little known trend:
Teams are 1,976 - 0 when Club puts a bet on them and then buys out.

[barts185]

Teams are 1,976 - 0 when Club puts a bet on them and then buys out.

Sounds about the same as my record when I do that

Good Luck,
Bart

[sprn]

Thanks for putting up a summary of the games every day, bart.

[barts185]

Memphis goes up by 21 only to blow it.


03/09/10

A couple of games in the negative to positive situation.


As expected, the opening line on the MIA/CHA game is being show as 3 most places, and yet somehow I have a ticket purchased at 12:38pm pacific time yesterday at +3.5. Imagine that. After the initial move to 3, it has moved back to 3.5 everywhere anyway, but curious what I should consider the opening line on this game?


Philadelphia goes from negative to positve.

PHI has had numerous changes over the past couple of weeks.
E. Brand ▪ S. Dalembert ▪ J. Holiday ▪ A. Iguodala ▪ L. Williams had 3 games from 02/23 to 02/26
that went to
S. Dalembert ▪ J. Holiday ▪ A. Iguodala ▪ L. Williams ▪ T. Young for 2 games 03/01 and 03/03
on 03/05 they started
E. Brand ▪ S. Dalembert ▪ J. Holiday ▪ A. Iguodala ▪ L. Williams
on 03/07 they started
E. Brand ▪ J. Holiday ▪ A. Iguodala ▪ L. Williams ▪ T. Young
and now it looks like S. Dalembert will be back for this game.

Does that mean the starting lineup will go back to
E. Brand ▪ S. Dalembert ▪ J. Holiday ▪ A. Iguodala ▪ L. Williams

I don't know. After Young scored 32 points as PHI beat Toronto 114-101 on Sunday, there are rumors that there could be lineup changes.

Brand missed 2 games 03/01 and 03/03

Dalembert was not a starter on 03/07 due to being late to a team meeting.



Miami goes from Negative to positive.

Alston started through 02/17. Then he missed 3 games 02/19 to 02/23. Then he was in for 3 games 02/27 to 03/02. Then he was suspended indefinitely, and looks like he won't be back.

C. Arroyo ▪ M. Beasley ▪ J. O'Neal ▪ Q. Richardson ▪ D. Wade

have started the last 2 games. They were together earlier in the year as well.

O'Neal missed the last half of Saturday's game, and didn't practice on Monday and is being listed in different places as probable or questionable for today.


CHI line has moved from +3.5 to +4 or even +4.5. While they would qualify (fade of UTA) at +5.5, I think that only happens if Deng is confirmed as out. He missed practice yestrday due to the flu.


So, definitely no plays on part 1 of the system. Part 2, as always, remains a question.

Good Luck,
Bart

[m3xtreme]

it seems like there is never a play, and when there is one it isn't quite accurate as its suppose to be. Can you explain the system to a newb? i get sports betting 100% just have no idea what your system is based on and im interested?? thanks Good luck everyone!!!

[barts185]

It's based on using the overall win percentages to calculate what the line should be, and then making a play when the line is off by more than a cetain amount from what the win percentages would indicate the line should be.

There are NOT a lot of plays, and then things are complicated by some only wanting to use the opening line (however they define that) and injury questions and whether or not a team is elgible after someone has been out a certain amount of time.

[barts185]

See post #1 for a better explanation of the rules, and filters.

[barts185]

03/10/10
No lines yet on LAC/MIA, MEM/BOS, NOR/OKC. Not sure if I'll be able to update later today, have a busy schedule.

Of the games there are lines on:
Dallas qualifies mathwise, but are dd favorites, so are elminiated. See prior posts for issues with Dallas, and Haywood, who has missed 2 games, is questionable for tonight.

Denver qualifies mathwise, but have issues.
Kenyon Martin has missed 2 games, 03/05 and 03/07 and is going to be out awhile.
In the 2 games Martin has been out, DEN beat IND 122-114 but didn't cover and beat POR 118-106 and did cover.

Graham started on 03/05 and then didn't play on 03/07.
Last game's starting lineup of
A. Afflalo ▪ C. Anthony ▪ C. Billups ▪ N. Hilario ▪ J. Petro
was the only game they started.


I'm passing, good luck if you play anything.



Actually, I decided to make a play on Denver personally, but from the system point of view, don't think it should count. Squeeked that one out.

[barts185]

03/10/10

Rest of the games are up, and I had a chance to look.


LAC qualify as a fade of Miami, but they are on B2B and aren't eligible. Also, Gordon has missed 2 games and is questionable. While those 2 games were against good teams (UTA and ORL), the Clippers looked bad. Personally, I wouldn't use them even if they did qualify at this point (which means they might win outright ).

On the same game, Miami goes from positive to negative. Same issues.


Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

03/11

No plays.

The only one that's even remotely close is CHI, but the line would have to get to +14 (at -13.5, ORL would go from positive to negative). And, Deng is now out for a minimum of 2 games to add to their other woes, so the injury filter would kick in.

Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

Friday, 03/12/10, initial report


No line on LAC/CHA (Gordon), CLE/PHI(no, not LeBron again - Jamison), CHI/MIA (Beasley)


OKC qualify mathwise, but are dd favorite, so are elminated.


WAS qualify as a fade of DET, and in the negative to positve, but are on B2B (to B), game 2 of 3 nights in a row, so are eliminated.


SAS qualify mathwise, but have issues. Parker has only been out 2 games, so they are on the "can't use due to losing a starter" list for at least 1 more game / 2 more days.

K. Bogans ▪ T. Duncan ▪ M. Ginobili ▪ G. Hill ▪ A. McDyess

have started 2 games. In those 2 game, they lost to CLE 95-97, and beat NYK 97-87 in a lucky cover (it was a 1 point game with less than 4 minutes to go).



Will be back tomorrow once I see lines on the other games.

Good Luck,
Bart

[kingofgamble]

waiting for tomorrow

[barts185]

03/12 final report


Charlotte positive to negative. If line goes to +11 LAC also would qualify mathwise as a fade of Charlotte (obviously not the opening line).
Eric Gordon has missed 3 games. They are 0-3 SU and ATS in those games. I'm wouldn't take the Clippers until they at least cover a game and it's tempting to fade them until they do, but pass.

Cleveland opened -7.5. At that number, the math comes out to 10.0, qualifying them. While LeBron will be back, Jamison is now out. He may play Sunday, but as of now, he's out for tonight's game, so the injury filter would come into play and force a pass. There's also the matter of LeBron's sitting out 2 games and a practice just to rest, and coming back tonight.

Chicago is on back to back so aren't eligible. Mathwise, they qualify as a fade of Miami. Miami also goes from positive to negative. Actually, one of the lowest values I remember seeing at -7.2 using the opening line of -11 (maybe -10.5 that was around in 1 place for 7 minutes). Now -7.7 at the -11.5 that's around. Chicago also has injury concerns. Deng is definitely out. Rose is questionable. Lastly, Chicago has more or less sucked lately - the last time they covered was 02/26. Not sure if they are being underpriced here, but pass.

Phoenix line has moved from PK to +2. At +3 the Lakers go from positive to negative. At +3.5, Phoenix would qualify as a fade of Lakers. Frye (not a starter) is suspended for the game. Barbosa (not a starter), who was expected back for this game, is going to still be out. Dragic (not a starter) is expected to play.

So, as usual, a lot of words to say no plays.

Good Luck,
Bart

[mundane]

nice job here bart! keep it going! thanks!

[Pensinger1]

"So, as usual, a lot of words to say no plays."

sighh.

[m3xtreme]

good work man.. but how often is there really a play and is it worth the wait? new to the system interested and just want to learn.. thanks.

[barts185]

There are only 20-30 plays a year. It's up to you to decide if it's worth it. Last year, it went 17-7. This year, there's a lot of disagreement over when games should count or not due to injuries, but if you look at the posted record, it was 14-4 before all the injury questions started coming up. There's also the issue about only using opening line. And lastly, there's part two when teams go from negative to positive or positive to negative, which I'm still trying to figure out. Here's my brief comments about games, I might have missed one or two.


12/07 DEN win 1-0
12/10 BOS loss 1-1
12/11 HOU win 2-1
12/12 SAC win 3-1
12/16 UTA win 4-1
12/18 IND loss 4-2
12/18 SAC loss 4-3
12/22 ATL win 5-3
12/26 HOU loss 5-4
12/28 OKC win 6-4
01/01 ORL win 7-4
01/04 NOR win 8-4
on 01/10 record quoted as 9-4, not sure which play I missed
01/12 LAC win 10-4 (Kaman was a late scratch, but this play is left in due to having played at opening line), win
01/20 BOS ? Garnett inj, stay away consensus, but it is a play. loss
01/22 MIL win
01/22 DAL? loss
01/22 HOU? win
01/29 LAL win ?14-4
02/03, POR, but inj questions, loss
02/05 HOU possibly, but both teams had the exact same wins/losses, so not sure how either team would qualify as the team with the higher percentage. win
02/05 DEN, but Anthony was out. He'd been out for 6 games, and some people were saying if a starter is out for a week or more, you still use the team. win
02/08 DAL, but inj question, win
02/09 POR, but inj question, loss
02/20 MEM, win
02/23 POR, but inj question, win
02/25 DEN only if you use -5.5, which was around, but wasn't the opening line, win
02/26 OKC, but opening line was -10, dropped to -9.5, which qualified, but not if you only used opening lines, win
02/28 TOR, inj question (Bosh), has already missed 4 games, loss
03/01 POR/MEM POR under part 2 at the opening line, MEM after the line move, ???
03/03 CLE, but not at opening line, and questions regarding the new lineup, win
03/05 DAL, Terry out, but not starter even though he plays starter minutes. Starting lineup questions (see post 663), loss.
03/05 NOR may have gone from negative to positive. SAS was the selected team, and they went from positive to negative, loss.
03/06 MEM opening line was +1.5, which didn't qualify, +2 qualifies as fade of SAS. MEM also may qualify under part 2 at the opening line, loss
03/07 LAL part 2, win
03/08 MEM, question as to whether or not the opening line was 10 or not, loss
03/08 DAL injuries, win
03/09 PHI negative to positive, injury issues, loss
03/09 MIA negative to positive, injury issues / Alston gone, loss
03/10 DEN, injury questions, Martin out for 2 games now, will be out a while, win
03/12 SAS but Parker only out 2 games so far, so can't use for a week after starter injured is in play,
03/12 LAC negative to positive, Eric Gordon missed 3 games,
03/12 CLE barely qualifies mathwise at -7.5, and Jamison now out, LeBron coming back from resting,

[barts185]

03/13
One 1 game qualifies mathwise - maybe, but I'm passing.


Houston qualifies mathwise. They opened -10, which would eliminate them under the dd favorite filter. The line has moved to -9.5.

The Nets have been a covering machine on this roadtrip, first beating NYK by 20 as 8 points dogs, and then covering against MEM, DAL, and OKC. Do they cover again today?

Houston has only been this big a favorite twice this year, and won but didn't cover either time.

S. Battier ▪ A. Brooks ▪ C. Hayes ▪ K. Martin ▪ L. Scola

Have now started 7 games overall, and 5 in a row. It's unclear if Ariza is going to go back to being a starter, he came off the bench last game (his first game back after missing 7 games with a hip pointer).

I doubt this will post well, but here goes:

Date Team Opp Site Final Rest FG% Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
20100224 HOU ORL H 92-110 2&2 42-49 +4 +204 -18 -14.0 -2.0 -8.0 6.0 L L U
20100226 HOU SAS H 109-104 1&1 45-44 +3' +197 5 8.5 16.0 12.2 3.8 W W O
different starting lineup 20100227 HOU UTH A 110-133 0&0 44-67 +9' +203' -23 -13.5 39.5 13.0 26.5 L L O
20100301 HOU TOR H 116-92 1&0 51-44 -6 +213 24 18.0 -5.0 6.5 -11.5 W W U
20100303 HOU SAC H 81-84 1&0 38-32 -7' +210' -3 -10.5 -45.5 -28.0 -17.5 L L U
20100306 HOU MIN A 112-98 2&2 47-45 -4 +209 14 10.0 1.0 5.5 -4.5 W W O
20100307 HOU DET A 107-110 0&1 45-47 -1' +196' -3 -4.5 20.5 8.0 12.5 L L O 1
20100309 HOU WAS A 96-88 1&1 38-42 -4 +198' 8 4.0 -14.5 -5.2 -9.2 W W U

For those who only use opening lines, it doesn't even qualify, so no issue. Even for those who use a line if it becomes available, there's the Ariza issue. While I think Houston should beat the Nets today, personally I'm passing.

Good Luck,
Bart

[barts185]

03/14/10

I hope everyone to whom it's applicable remembered to move their clocks ahead an hour.

Haven't had a chance to go over injurys or situations yet.

I may be back later, but breifly, no plays qualify at opening lines under part 1.

At -8 Portland goes from positive to negative (7.4 to -0.6).

After the line move from -1 to -3 on OKC, UTA goes from negative to positve. At the opening line of -1, UTA was -0.95 so didn't make the -1.0 necessary for a fade. At OKC -3, the result on UTA goes from -1.95 before the line to +1.05 after the line.


Good Luck,
Bart

[PatrickBateman]

bart185,

Post #693 = Awesome Thanks again for all the awesome hard work

[losturmarbles]

wow barts, good synopsis of this season.

[barts185]

03/15/10


PHI opened -3.5, at that line NYK goes from -3.0 to +0.5. It's moved to -3, at which point NYK go from -3.0 to 0.0. The Knicks have been moving around the starting lineup, last time they had the same starters for 3 games in a row was 02/23-02/27. Rodriguez looks like he went from a starter to not playing in the last game.


Lakers -8 is a play. The only thing to note is that Kobe hurt his injured hand in the third quarter of last game. He didn't leave the game, and will play in this one.


Good Luck,
Bart

[cashil]

Yes! Got a play tonight

[freeVICK]

finally a play, lakers it is!